But again, I am remaining focused on the more traditional over/unders. In order to find edges in lines that sportsbooks have had two weeks to set and adjust, you need to know these players and teams inside and out. Allow me to pull back the curtain for you, so you can have a look at each of the quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers (tight ends too) suiting up for Super Bowl 60, as well as the two (very good) defenses we will see on Sunday.

Below you’ll find all the data related to betting passing, rushing, and receiving props, along with my favorite Super Bowl prop bets.

Passing Props | Receiving Props | Rushing Props | Prop Picks

Super Bowl Passing Props Odds & Stats

Among the two Super Bowl QBs, sportsbooks expect Sam Darnold to perform slightly better than Drake Maye. Darnold’s over/under for passing yards, pass attempts, and completions are all a little higher, while his odds to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns are far better, and his odds to throw an interception are slightly worse.

The passing props above are from DraftKings, but the lines are only accurate as of Friday night. Make sure you check out our NFL player props tool to find all the latest lines, as well as the best odds for either side.

Here’s a look at how the two QBs stack up against the defenses they are preparing to face on Sunday.

Sam Darnold vs Patriots Defense

The Patriots defense has allowed the 7th-fewest gross passing yards per game at just 200.8 this season. You’ll notice Darnold’s season average for passing yards is slightly higher than what his over/under is for Super Bowl 60, but that’s the result of New England’s strong pass defense.

Another testament to the Patriots’ strong defense is Darnold’s averages for attempts and completions are both slightly lower than the over/unders set for him on Sunday. So, sportsbooks are saying he will have to throw more than normal, but will produce even less with the higher volume.

Just looking at the passing yards prop, Darnold has thrown for at least 231 yards in 11 of 19 games this season, which includes one of two playoff games so far. The Patriots defense has only allowed 231+ gross passing yards in 5 of 20 games, and no team has achieved this number against them in the playoffs to this point.

Darnold has played three games against defenses who rank in the top 10 for (fewest) gross passing yards allowed. He did not throw for 231+ yards in any of those games, as 218 passing yards was his best performance, which came against the Saints in Week 3. To be fair, Darnold only needed to attempt 18 passes in that game, though, as the Seahawks won 44-13. His worst performance was 128 yards against the Vikings, but he also wasn’t really needed a ton, as his team won 26-0.

Drake Maye vs Seahawks Defense

The Seahawks defense ranked 13th in gross passing yards allowed per game at just 217.7. Similar to above, this is why Drake Maye’s over/under for passing yards in Super Bowl 60 is well below his season average. There is obviously a feeling that the defense Maye is about to see is notably better than what he has faced this season, as his line is about 23 yards lower than his season average.

Sportsbooks don’t expect Maye’s volume to change much, as his lines for pass attempts and completions are pretty close to his season averages.

Isolating the passing yards prop, Maye has thrown for at least 224 yards in 14 of 20 games this season. However, he has only accomplished the feat once in his three playoff games so far. Seattle has only allowed 224 gross passing yards in 8 of 19 games this season, which includes one of two playoff games.

Maye has played eight games against defenses who rank in the top 13 for fewest gross passing yards allowed, and he exceeded 223.5 passing yards in five of the eight.

Super Bowl Receiving Props Odds & Stats

I’ll start with the Seahawks receivers against the Patriots defense. The table below includes the receiving props for Super Bowl 60 as well as their season averages.

Looking to Seahawks pass-catchers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, unsurprisingly, has the highest lines for receiving yards and receptions. Both are the highs for the game as well. But JSN’s receiving yard line is about 10 yards less of his season average. Again, this is a result of the Patriots defense being strong against the pass, and the likelihood of Mike Vrabel scheming to slow Smith-Njigba down.

JSN has faced three defenses who rank in the top 7 for fewest gross passing yards allowed, like New England does, and he has gone over 93.5 receiving yards in two of three. Seattle’s reliance on Smith-Njigba in the passing game, evident by his 9.4 targets per game, has made him pretty matchup-proof to this point.

Both George Holani and Kenneth Walker III are seeing receiving lines higher than their season averages, thanks to Zach Charbonnet not suiting up for this one.

A couple notable trends for Seahawks receivers vs their current receiving yards lines:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 93.5 receiving yards in 12 of 19 games this season (63.2%)
• Though Rashid Shaheed has gone over 21.5 receiving yards in 13 of 20 games this season, he has only done it in 4 of 11 games as a Seahawk (36.4%)
• Jake Bobo has only gone over 0.5 receiving yards in 4 of 13 games this season, but he has done so in both playoff games so far
• While Kenneth Walker III has only gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 7 of 19 games this season, he has gone over in both playoff games so far (with Charbonnet out)

And then here are the Patriots receivers versus the Seahawks defense:

The Patriots pass attack is much more balanced than Seattle’s, as they do not have a single player with an over/under greater than 46 for receiving yards, but they have five players with lines of at least 24.5. Stefon Diggs is the New England pass-catcher seeing the highest receiving lines, with his over/under for yards set at 45.5 and his receptions at 4.5.

Every single one of New England’s pass-catchers is seeing a lower over/under than their season average for receiving yards. The only player seeing a line notably higher than their season average in any receiving prop is Rhamondre Stevenson’s receptions. His over/under is 3.5, when his season average is just 2.3. This is the result of TreVeyon Henderson taking a clear backseat to Stevenson in the playoffs.

And here are a some notable players’ performances versus their respective receiving yards lines to mention:

• Mack Hollins has gone over 26.5 receiving yards in 10 of 16 games this season, including 9 of his last 11
• TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 3.5 receiving yards in 12 of 20 games this season (60%), but only in 1 of 3 playoff games so far
• Stefon Diggs has gone under 45.5 receiving yards in all three playoff games so far

Receiving Statistic Splits vs Super Bowl Defenses

Finally, here’s a look at how each position fares against these two defenses when it comes to receptions and receiving yards:

Both of these defenses are strong against wide receivers, ranking among the top 4 for fewest yards allowed to wide receivers.

New England is middle of the pack when it comes to defending TEs and RBs in the passing game, with their worst ranking coming against tight ends. The Patriots allow the 13th-most receiving yards and 11th-most receptions to tight ends.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have allowed a disproportional amount of receptions and receiving yards to both tight ends and running backs. They have surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards and 6th-most receptions to TEs, but are even worse against RBs, giving up the 6th-most receiving yards and most receptions per game to running backs.

Super Bowl Rushing Props Odds & Stats

Kenneth Walker III has the highest over/unders for rushing yards (71.5), rushing attempts (18.5), and rushing + receiving yards (99.5) in the Super Bowl. He is tied for the highest line for longest rush (14.5), but his odds to go over are far better than Drake Maye’s. Walker’s rushing line is actually higher than both Patriots’ running backs combined.

The Patriot running back with the highest rushing over/under is Rhamondre Stevenson at 50.5. Drake Maye’s rushing line is a fair bit higher than TreVeyon Henderson’s.

Now let’s breakdown the two feature backs against the defenses they will face on Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III vs Patriots Defense

The data above is focused on the Patriots defense versus running backs. The data you are seeing does not factor in rushes by wide receivers or quarterbacks.

The Patriots allow the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game and the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per carry to running backs in the NFL. While Kenneth Walker III’s rushing over/under is higher than his season average, it’s a fair bit lower than what his playoff rushing average has been – which is crucial to consider, since he was splitting the backfield with Zach Charbonnet during the regular season.

Walker has averaged 89 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, up from just 60.4 in the regular season, on 4.68 yards per carry. But due to the Patriots’ stingy run defense, sportsbooks have brought his rushing over/under down to just 71.5, which nearly matches what New England gives up to RBs on the ground per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs Seahawks Defense

Same as the above, the data for the Seahawks defense is solely focused on how they fare versus running backs. It does not include rushes by receivers or QBs.

The Seahawks allow the 3rd-fewest rushing yards per game and the fewest rushing yards per attempt to running backs in the league. Stevenson’s over/under for rushing yards in the Super Bowl is a little higher than his season average, but, like Walker, he has also taken over his backfield in the playoffs – not due to injury on his side, though.

Stevenson averaged just 43.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but has averaged 64.7 per game in the playoffs. His rookie backfield mate has taken a clear backseat in the playoffs, as Stevenson has out-carried him 51 to 24 through three games so far.

So, sportsbooks have really brought Stevenson’s over/under for rushing yards down when considering his playoff average, but he is preparing for the toughest defense in the league against the run.

Rushing Statistic Splits vs Super Bowl Defenses

And here’s a look at the distribution of rushing yards allowed and rushing attempts against by position for these two defenses:

Both defenses allow a very similar amount of rushing yards to running backs and quarterbacks. The one weakness that stands out is the Patriots allowing wide receivers to rush for 7.5 yards per game against them. WRs are averaging 8.82 yards per rushing attempt against New England.

This will certainly interest anyone looking to bet Rashid Shaheed or Jaxon Smith-Njigba rushing yards.

Best Super Bowl Player Prop Picks

After ingesting all of this data and analyzing the trends, I have landed on the following picks for Super Bowl 60:

1. Drake Maye 230+ Passing Yards – Don’t read too much into Maye’s playoff passing yards, since about half of his snaps have been in horrific conditions. I don’t believe the Patriots are going to have much success running the ball against Seattle’s defense, and feel the Seahawks will force the Patriots to remain aggressive on offense all game. There are ways to beat the Seahawks through the air (TE and RB), and I am betting Josh McDaniels will have a plan to attack those areas of opportunity. The best odds for this are +107 at DraftKings.
2. Mack Hollins 30+ Receiving Yards – When Hollins suits up, he racks up receiving yards for the Patriots. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 54.8 receiving yards per game. He has recorded at least 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games, and six of his last seven. I like Hollins to continue producing. The best odds for this bet are +124 at FanDuel. I’m even sprinkling a little on 40+ at +210 odds.
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 110+ Receiving Yards – I discussed this one a fair bit in my Super Bowl predictions article. You can read my full analysis there.

If you want to see a similar deep dive into TDs, check out my Super Bowl anytime touchdown betting guide.

The post 2026 Super Bowl Player Props – All the Data & Analysis to Make the Best Bets for Seahawks vs Patriots appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I have rounded up and carefully organized data pertaining to, but not limited to, player touchdowns, red zone and goal line looks, team offensive touchdowns, defensive touchdowns allowed, and anytime touchdown odds. I have also included my own touchdown predictions for Super Bowl 60 that were made after analyzing all the data below. Let me know if you landed on the same players after reading all the data yourself!

Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds & TD Stats

*I have yet to see any sportsbook open odds on Marcus Jones to score a touchdown, but most offer a Patriots D/ST anytime TD scorer option. I used these odds for Marcus Jones above.

The player with the best odds to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 60 is Kenneth Walker III. The Seahawks RB is given -190 odds to score a TD on Sunday. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the only other player with shorter-than-even odds to score a TD. The Patriots player with the best odds to score a touchdown in Rhamondre Stevenson at +145.

The data table above is first sorted by team and then by total touchdowns scored this season. It combines regular season and playoff stats. The Patriot who has scored the most touchdowns this season is TreVeyon Henderson with 10. However, he is given long +500 odds to score in the Super Bowl because he has not found the endzone in the playoffs yet, as he has taken a clear backseat to Stevenson in the Pats backfield. The Patriot who has scored a touchdown in the highest percentage of games this season is Kayshon Boutte, who has a TD in 35.3% of his games.

The Seahawk who has scored the most touchdowns this season (and is also suiting up for the Super Bowl) is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has scored 12 touchdowns. He is also the Seahawk with the highest percentage of games with a TD, again, among players who are going to play on Sunday.

I left Zach Charbonnet and Tory Horton in the data table for the Seahawks to help give an idea of where their touchdowns are spread out. But I also provide more on that a little later. Neither Charbonnet or Horton will suit up for the Super Bowl.

The odds in the table above are from bet365, outside of Marcus Jones’ odds. They do not offer a D/ST anytime TD scorer, but they do have the best odds for many of the players above. If you’re not already betting with this sportsbook, check out our bet365 bonus code for the latest and best welcome offer.

Playoff TD Leaders

If we just focus on the playoffs, here are the leaders in touchdowns from the Seahawks and Patriots:

1) Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks): 4 total TDs in 2 games
2) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks): 2 total TDs in 2 games
T3) Cooper Kupp (Seahawks): 1 TD in 2 games
T3) DeMario Douglas (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games
T3) Drake Maye (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games
T3) Hunter Henry (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games
T3) Jake Bobo (Seahawks): 1 TD in 2 games
T3) Kayshon Boutte (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games
T3) Marcus Jones (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games
T3) Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks): 1 TD in 2 games
T3) Stefon Diggs (Patriots): 1 TD in 3 games

To be clear, no player from these two teams has scored a touchdown in the postseason other than the 11 listed above. As you can see, there are only two players suiting up for the Super Bowl who have scored multiple touchdowns in these playoffs, and both are Seahawks – in spite of them having played one fewer game than the Patriots.

But to be fair, about five of the 12 quarters New England has played so far have been in awful weather, and they have also seen three very good defenses – it will be four after the Super Bowl.

Red Zone & Goal Line Looks

Red zone looks (and goal line looks) is a stat that combines rushing attempts and receiving targets on plays run from inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line (or 5-yard-line when talking about goal line looks). This is a great stat for projecting touchdowns, as it shows you which players are leaned on as a team is going in to score. Here’s a quick look at the leaders in red zone and goal line looks for each team:

Seahawks

I left Charbonnet in this table just to showcase how heavily the Seahawks lean on their running backs in the red zone.

Among their active players, Kenneth Walker III averages the most red zone looks and goal line looks per game. But his 2.4 red zone looks per game don’t give you the full picture. KW3 only averaged 2.0 red zone looks per game in the regular season, while playing alongside a healthy Charbonnet. However, Walker has averaged 6.0 red zone looks per game in the two playoff games so far, following Charbonnet getting injured early in the Divisional Round.

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba sports a healthy 1.2 red zone looks per game this season, his regular season average was just 1.0 looks per game, but he has seen 2.5 red zone looks per game in the playoffs.

Patriots

Though TreVeyon Henderson leads the Patriots in total red zone looks, his per game average has dropped to just 0.33 when isolating New England’s three playoff games. Rhamondre Stevenson has been the player the Patriots have leaned on in the red zone during the playoffs.

Hunter Henry has also seen a massive dip in the postseason. His red zone looks average for the entire year is 1.2 per game, but he was averaging 1.29 per game during the regular season, which has come down to just 0.33 per game during the playoffs.

Seahawks & Patriots Offensive TD Stats

The brackets next to each data point discloses their league rank in that statistic. In providing the rank, I used all games played by each team. So, there is a discrepancy in games played between playoff teams and non-playoff teams.

Both teams are pretty balanced in how they score their touchdowns, as New England ranks in the top 10 in both rushing and passing TDs per game, while the Seahawks are in the top 13 for both stats. Neither of these teams have been overly efficient in the red zone, though.

It’s worth noting that while the Patriots have scored a lot of points this season, that has not been the case for them in the playoffs so far. As mentioned, they have had to deal with some bad weather conditions, but it has still been a significant decline. Their offensive TDs per game has gone from 3.12 during the regular season to just 1.67 in the playoffs, and their red zone TD% has dipped from 59% to 33.3%.

Then here’s the breakdown of touchdowns scored (rushing and receiving) by position for each team:

Seahawks:

• QB: 0
• RB: 22
• WR: 22
• TE: 8

Seattle has seen their running backs and wide receivers score the exact same number of touchdowns this season (22). If that’s not unique enough, it’s also worth noting that no running back has caught a touchdown, and no wide receiver has rushed for a touchdown on their roster. Meanwhile, AJ Barner has a rushing touchdown.

And before you start thinking about betting Sam Darnold to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl, know that he has not scored a single TD all season.

Patriots:

• QB: 5
• RB: 21
• WR: 22
• TE: 10

Wide receivers are the position that have accounted for the most Patriot touchdowns this season with 22. Not far behind is running backs with 21.

Seahawks & Patriots Defensive TD Stats

To be clear, the data above only factors in touchdowns their defenses have surrendered – it does not include special teams or defensive touchdowns that were scored against the team. Each team has given up one punt return TD and one touchdown from an offensive turnover.

When you look at how these two teams rank defensively, it’s easy to understand why the game’s total has stayed put at 45.5, in spite of what each offense is capable of. Seattle has allowed the fewest points in the league this season (17.1), while New England is a close second (17.3). Scoring on the ground against either of these teams has been very difficult, as they also rank #1 and #2 in this category.

The only real weakness there is to point out here is that New England has struggled a bit when their opponent enters the red zone. The Patriots are allowing their opponents to score a TD on 60.4% of their red zone drives this season. Meanwhile, Seattle has been pretty stingy when their backs are against the wall, allowing a TD on just over half (50.9%) of their opponents’ red zone drives.

Here’s a quick look at how many touchdowns the Seahawks and Patriots have allowed to each position this season:

Seahawks:

• QB: 3
• RB: 8
• WR: 15
• TE: 6

Wide receivers have scored the most touchdowns against the Seahawks this season, tallying 15 trips to the endzone. Running backs have not had the same luck, as they have only scored 8 touchdowns vs the Seahawks, and three of those were receiving touchdowns as well.

Patriots:

• QB: 2
• RB: 10
• WR: 20
• TE: 6

Similar to above, wide receivers have been the position who has scored the most TDs against the Patriots this season, scoring 20 times in as many games.

Anytime Touchdown Betting Strategy for Super Bowl 2026

After considering all of the data above, here is how I am betting the anytime TD market for Super Bowl 60:

• Kenneth Walker III: while the Patriots haven’t given up many touchdowns on the ground this season, I can’t look away from how reliant the Seahawks are on Walker in the red zone. Pair that with New England’s tendency to give up touchdowns when their opponent enters the red zone, and I like Walker to make it three straight games with a touchdown. You can find his odds as long as -175 at theScore Bet.
• Kayshon Boutte: even though Boutte wasn’t that efficient with his opportunities in the AFC Championship game, he is averaging five targets per game in the playoffs, which is good for second to only Stefon Diggs’ 5.7, and he leads the team with 147 receiving yards in the postseason. The next-best is just 86 yards by Rhamondre Stevenson. I believe the Patriots offense will have to remain aggressive all game, and I believe that means Boutte will get a healthy dose of targets. You can find his odds as long as +325 at BetMGM. If you’re not already signed up with them, check out the best BetMGM promo code for your region.

The post Super Bowl Anytime TD Scorer Betting Guide: Touchdown Odds, Stats & Trends appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The purpose of this article isn’t to speculate on narratives or to have fun reminiscing, though; it’s to deconstruct the matchup using actionable data and contextual trends. By analyzing specific situational splits, we can find mathematical edges hidden in the noise of Super Bowl week.

After analyzing all the data, here are the two most powerful statistical trends I found to cement my Super Bowl predictions.

1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba Eats vs Top Run Defenses

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded at least 113 receiving yards in all 4 games vs top 10 run defenses this season.

The logic makes sense here – why try to attack a team’s strength, right? Instead of trying to stubbornly run the ball against good run defenses this season, the Seahawks have just opted to attack through the air more. Seattle attempts 5.2 more passes per game when playing top 10 run defenses than they do vs non-top 10 run defenses, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the primary beneficiary of this approach.

Here’s a look at JSN’s stats from the four games they have played against top 10 run defenses this season:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Game Logs vs Top 10 Run Defenses

No receiver saw a bigger target share than JSN this regular season (35.8%), and you can see his share get as high as 48.1% when playing top 10 run defenses. He is the life of Seattle’s passing game, and in the biggest game of the year, I don’t foresee that changing.

Not only has Smith-Njigba recorded at least 113 receiving yards in each of the four games detailed above, but he is averaging 132.5 receiving yards per game in those contests, reaching as high as 162 in Week 6 against the Jaguars.

The Patriots finished the regular season ranked 5th against the run and only allowed 4.2 YPC (13th). They have been especially stingy against the run in the playoffs as well, allowing fewer than 88 yards in each of their three games.

JSN’s over/under for receiving yards is set at 93.5, and you can get the over at -110 odds on bet365. If you want to go a little higher with the line, since he goes well over 93.5 in these situations, you can get 110+ receiving yards at +162 on FanDuel.

2) Seattle Seahawks’ High-Scoring Tight Affairs

The Over has hit in 5 of the Seahawks’ last 6 games when favored by fewer than 7 points.

When oddsmakers project a competitive game for Seattle – indicated by a spread under a touchdown – the recent result is almost always a shootout. This trend highlights a specific team DNA: in expected tight contests, the Seahawks remain aggressive offensively, while their defense surrenders enough to help the total go over.

Here’s a closer look at the last six games they have played in this situation:

Seahawks’ Last 6 Games Favored by Less Than 7

To be clear, the consensus line in their Week 17 matchup with the Panthers was Seattle -7. This is why you’re not seeing that game in the table above.

What’s especially encouraging about this trend is that they’re not just barely going over the total, but crushing it. In three of the five over results, Seattle and their opponent cleared the total by at least 11 points, and went over by more than 20 points in two of them. The only under came in their Week 18 matchup with the 49ers, where neither team could get anything going offensively.

With the spread sitting at Seahawks -4.5, Super Bowl 60 falls squarely into this same situation. Sportsbooks see two good defenses in this matchup, though, and have set a modest total of 45.5, which also aligns well with Seattle’s previous six games in this situation.

You can use the tool below to get the best over odds available in your region, or can check out our Patriots vs Seahawks odds to break the game down further.

The post Super Bowl Predictions: The 2 Strongest Trends to Put Your Money Behind in Seahawks vs Patriots appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Hosting a Super Bowl party can be a lot of work! Not only does your house have to be presentable, but there’s a lot of food prep to be done (even potluck style still requires some organizing and space to be made for serving), seating to be arranged, and drinks to be cooled. While I cannot help you with food/drink/seating, I would love to be able to help spruce your party up with a Super Bowl props sheet for all your guests to fill out. I’ll even provide the answers for each question!

As I have done for many years now, I put together two different versions: (1) a Super Bowl props sheet created to please the big football fans in the room, and (2) a Super Bowl props sheet created for those who don’t know who Sam Darnold or Rhamondre Stevenson are. So, regardless of your fandom or knowledge, I have done my best to craft some Super Bowl props that will interest you.

Both of the PDFs below can be downloaded and printed. Be sure to follow @SBD on Twitter/X, where we will be tweeting the answers as they come up during the game. You can also bookmark this page to come back and check the answers live in the table at the bottom of this page. (Just be sure you refresh the page to see if any answers have been filled in.)

2026 Super Bowl Props Sheet for Hardcore Fans

One thing I always leave for you to decide, is what type of tiebreaking question you want to implement. At my party, I have everyone write down how many total points they believe will be scored in the game. But if you want to do something else – total yards, total minutes it takes to play the game etc – feel free to do so. (I just won’t be scoring those for you.) This is an important one, though, as I do see ties quite often.

I know some readers will fully understand all of the options for each of the questions in the hardcore Super Bowl props sheet, but I want to be sure everyone does. Let me explain some of the questions and answers from the sheet.

• Question #3: this is the first offensive play run – the kickoff does not count. The play-call will also not matter, as it will just be the result of the play. For example, if a QB drops back to pass, but then takes off to run and gains yards, it will be graded a “Run”
• Question #4: if there is a turnover on the first drive that the defense returns for a TD, this answer will be graded “Yes”
• Question #9: a turnover on downs (failing on a fourth down conversion) will not count as a turnover in this question
• Question #14: if there is overtime, any points scored in the OT will be added to the 4th quarter
• Question #16: you will notice Rhamondre Stevenson has a “(+23.5)” next to his name; this means we will add 23.5 yards to his total at the end of the game and grade who has more after that. I am giving him a handicap to make this selection more even.
• Question #17: we will be adding Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry’s receiving yards together at the end and grading the combo versus Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Question #19: I know it is unlikely Drake Maye will have any receiving yards, but doing this makes for a very interesting choice versus Shaheed
• Question #20: when grading this one, Darnold will have 0.5 turnovers added to his total at the end. Fumbles that are recovered by their own team will not count. This question only considers interceptions and fumbles lost
• Question #22: if you’re not familiar with how sports betting spreads work, Seattle is -4.5, meaning they will have to beat New England by at least five points to cover the spread. If New England loses by four points or less (or wins the game outright), they will cover the spread.

And, of course, anytime you see a blank line (“___”), this requires you to fill out your own answer.

If you want more action than just competing for a few bucks against your friends, every US state now has a legal, legitimate way to bet on Super Bowl 60. If you reside in a legal betting state (or Canada), check out the top sports betting sites in your region. If you’re not in a legal online sports betting region, and want to bet on player performance (player props), you can do so through the best DFS apps. If you are not in a legal online sports betting region, but still want to bet on who will win the game, you can trade on the outcome at Kalshi.

2026 Super Bowl Props Sheet for the Casual Fan

Same as above, be sure to have all guests fill out a tiebreaker! (See the sheet above for what I use, as well as other popular options.)

I want to also provide some further clarity on some of the questions/answers in this sheet:

• Question #3: it is not enough for a player or coach to simply cry during the national anthem. They must be captured crying on the official broadcast – tears must be visible
• Question #7: commercials with Cardi B in them will not be counted as being shown on the broadcast. The official Super Bowl broadcast by NBC must show Cardi B before the clock hits 00:00 in the 2nd quarter in order for this to be graded “Yes”
• Question #11: if a penalty is announced (flag cannot be picked up) by the referee, this will be graded as “Yes.” It will not matter if the team accepts the penalty or not
• Question #15: any sort of headgear will count as a hat
• Question #16: if Bad Bunny has multiple colors in his hair, we will go with the primary color
• Questions #19 & 20: Cardi B and Ricky Martin would have to physically perform with Bad Bunny to grade this “Yes” – no displays of past performances or holograms will count
• Question #25: the Super Bowl MVP does not have to explicitly say “thank you” in his speech. It will be the first person/group recognized that will count

If these types of props – Halftime Show, National Anthem etc – interest you, there are finally some legal options for betting them. Thanks to the rise of prediction markets, people from all 50 states can trade on the outcomes of these entertaining Super Bowl props. You can see the top prediction markets available, or use the banner below to sign up with Kalshi, who has plenty of options for wagering on the Halftime Show and Broadcast.

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2026 Super Bowl Props Sheet Answers

The table above will be updated during Super Bowl 60 as the outcomes are determined. You will have to refresh the page to see any updates, though.

Need Help Filling Out Your Super Bowl Props Sheet?

Whether you’re looking for help with expectations on any of the Seahawks/Patriots players, or you’re not overly familiar with Bad Bunny’s music, we have tons of pages with data and how the sportsbooks / prediction markets are viewing the probabilities. But make sure you keep in mind that the odds are not always right!

Here are a variety of resources from across SBD that should provide some help with most questions.

• Seahawks vs Patriots Odds
• Super Bowl Odds
• 2026 Super Bowl MVP Odds
• NFL Player Props
• NFL Public Betting Splits
• Super Bowl First TD Scorer Odds
• Historical Super Bowl Spreads
• Super Bowl National Anthem Odds
• Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds
• Super Bowl Halftime Show Odds
• Super Bowl Gatorade Odds
• Super Bowl Trends & Fun Facts

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I, of course, do have other reasons to like these picks below, but for the sake of simplicity, I chose to just dissect the trend and not get into too much other justification. Check out these team and player trends below, where you will also find the best sportsbook for tailing each one.

Mile High Magic Against Good Competition

The Denver Broncos are 7-1 (.875) at home against opponents with a winning record over their last 8 games.

There is no better homefield advantage in the NFL than the Broncos at Mile High. Not only is it loud, but their opponents are forced to play in thin air when they’re not used to it. The result has been the Broncos being able to overcome good competition consistently.

Here’s a look at those last eight games:

1.  W 33-30 vs BUF (12-5) – Jan 17, 2026 (Playoffs)
2.  W 19-3 vs LAC (11-5) – Jan 4, 2026
3.  L 20-34 vs JAX (10-4) – Dec 21, 2025 (only loss)
4.  W 34-26 vs GB (9-3-1) – Dec 14, 2025
5.  W 22-19 vs KC (5-4) – Nov 16, 2025
6.  W 28-3 vs CIN (2-1) – Sep 29, 2025
7.  W 38-0 vs KC (15-1) – Jan 5, 2025
8.  W 38-6 vs ATL (6-4) – Nov 17, 2024

The lone loss during this timeline came to the Jaguars, who were able to pick apart their man-coverage with Parker Washington. I do, however, think it’s fair to be honest about the games against the Chargers, when LA didn’t play their starters in Week 18, Bengals, who were playing without Joe Burrow, and Chiefs back on Jan 5, 2025, when KC rested their starters as well.

Even with those three wins not being overly impressive, the trend still stands and for the main reason that Denver is tough at home. In spite of Jarrett Stidham starting his first game since the 2023 season, the Broncos are going to still be tough at home.

Drake Maye Blows Away Expectations on the Road

Drake Maye has exceeded 227.5 passing yards in 8 of his last 9 games on the road, posting an impressive 271.9 passing yards per game average in those outings.

When Drake Maye heads on the road, he consistently racks up passing yards. Here’s a look at those games:

Drake Maye’s Game Logs on the Road

Date	Opponent	Result	Pass Yards	Over/Under 227.5
12/28/25	@ NYJ	W	256	Over
12/21/25	@ BAL	W	380	Over
11/23/25	@ CIN	W	294	Over
11/09/25	@ TB	W	270	Over
10/19/25	@ TEN	W	222	Under
10/12/25	@ NO	W	261	Over
10/05/25	@ BUF	W	273	Over
09/14/25	@ MIA	W	230	Over
12/22/24	@ BUF	L	261	Over

While there are a few pushovers on the list (in terms of passing defenses), Maye has also had to face some tough pass defenses during this trend. He managed 273 passing yards against the Bills’ top-ranked pass defense, and 261 against the Saints, who finished the season ranked fifth. Even the Jets (16th) and Dolphins (18th) were decent.

Maye is not facing an elite pass defense this weekend in Denver either – the Broncos rank 11th in gross passing yards allowed, and just gave up 283 to Josh Allen last week. I don’t think the Patriots will have the same success running the ball against Denver as Buffalo did a week ago. So, Maye might be forced to put the ball in the air even more than Allen did.

The best place to bet this trend is bet365, where you can get -110 odds on him going over 223.5 yards.

Pat Bryant’s Consistent Receptions

Pat Bryant has exceeded 2.5 receptions in 6 straight games, maintaining a solid 4.0 receptions per game average over that span.

This consistency reflects Bryant’s emerging role within Denver’s passing attack, where he’s become a reliable outlet.

Through the first five weeks of the season, Bryant was only playing 26.3% of Denver’s offensive snaps, while seeing just 0.8 targets per game. Those numbers have slowly progressed to playing 69.2% of Denver’s snaps and seeing 5.5 targets per game from Weeks 13-18.

Pat Bryant’s Recent Games

Date	Opponent	Receptions	Yards	Over 2.5?
01/17/26	vs BUF	3	32
01/04/26	vs LAC	4	31
12/21/25	vs JAX	5	42
12/07/25	@ LV	4	32
11/30/25	@ WAS	3	42
11/16/25	vs KC	5	82

Not only is he consistently going over 2.5 receptions, but he’s hauled in 4+ in four of his last six. I don’t believe the offense is going to change with Jarrett Stidham under center this Sunday.

When it comes to betting this trend, you can take over 2.5 receptions with -200 odds, or go a little more bold with over 3.5 at +125 odds. Either way, bet365 has the best odds for both.

Kyren Williams Thrives vs Good Defenses

Kyren Williams has exceeded 53.5 rushing yards in an impressive 11 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging 80.9 rushing yards in those matchups.

This trend considers the defense’s ranking at the end of the season, to be clear. It is not their ranking at the time of the game. I believe this makes the streak more impressive. Here’s a look at those games:

Kyren Williams vs Top 10 Defenses

Date	Opponent	Final Def Rank	Rush Yards	Over 53.5?
12/18/25	@ SEA	#1 (17.2)	70
11/16/25	vs SEA	#1 (17.2)	91
10/19/25	@ JAX	#8 (19.8)	54
09/21/25	@ PHI	#5 (19.1)	94
09/07/25	@ HOU	#2 (17.4)	66
01/19/25	@ PHI (Playoffs)	#2 (17.8)	106
01/13/25	vs MIN (Playoffs)	#5 (19.5)	76
11/24/24	vs PHI	#2 (17.8)	72
11/11/24	vs MIA	#10 (21.4)	62
10/24/24	@ MIN	#5 (19.5)	97
10/06/24	@ GB	#6 (19.9)	102

What’s really encouraging about this trend is that his past two games that fall within this situation were against the same Seahawk defense Williams will play this weekend. And he didn’t just go over 53.5 rushing yards by a little bit in either of them, he went well over, posting 70 and 91 yards, respectively.

This is a great boost of confidence to backing this trend, since Seattle allowed the fewest yards per rushing attempt this season as well.

The best odds you will find for tailing this trend are over 53.5 at -110 odds on bet365.

The post The Most Trustworthy Team & Player Trends to Put Your Money Behind for NFL Conference Championships appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Also consider that one team is starting a brand new quarterback this week (Broncos), the NFC Championship will mark the third meeting between the Rams and Seahawks this season, as well as the Patriots offense accounting for just four touchdowns in two playoff games after scoring the second-most points in the regular season, and there is a lot to consider before placing your NFL TD bets for the weekend.

Let me take you through all the anytime TD odds, TD stats (touchdown leaders and consistency), and defensive stats pertinent to make the best anytime TD picks for Sunday.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Stats & Odds for Conference Championships

All of the odds above are from bet365 on Friday afternoon. Rashid Shaheed is only marked as having ten games played, since I am not counting any of his games with the Saints. Those mean nothing when assessing how he has performed with the Seahawks.

Kenneth Walker III is the player with the best odds to score a touchdown in the Conference Championships this weekend. His -150 odds imply a 60% chance to score a TD against the Rams. If you bet $10 on KW3 to score a TD, you would stand to win $6.67 and return $16.67.

While Walker only has 8 touchdowns in 18 games played this season, three of which came last weekend, he is the unquestioned lead back in Seattle now after Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending knee injury against the 49ers last week. Charbonnet was getting a lot of the red zone touches for the Seahawks, but those will presumably end up with Walker now.

Of the players suiting up in the Conference Championships, Kyren Williams is the player who has scored a touchdown in the highest percentage of games, as he has scored 12 touchdowns in 19 games (63.2%). He also has the most total touchdowns. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua are the only other players in these two games who have scored a TD in more than 50% of their total games played this season.

Colby Parksinson and Courtland Sutton stand out as players whose odds are much longer than their touchdown scoring consistency would suggest. Parkinson has a touchdown in 41.2% of his games played this season, but is given +320 odds to score a touchdown this weekend – his implied probability from those odds is just 23.8%. Sutton has 7 touchdowns in 18 games played (38.9%), but is given +300 odds to score a touchdown this weekend. His implied probability from those odds is just 25%, though this one is a little easier to understand with a new QB throwing him the ball.

On the other end, Jaleel McLaughlin and Cooper Kupp are given very short odds to score a touchdown in spite of not having scored much this season. McLaughlin is getting +250 odds to score a touchdown, which implies a 28.6% chance, but has only scored 1 touchdown in 9 games played (11.1%). Kupp is getting +280 odds, implying a 26.3% chance, while only scoring 2 touchdowns in 17 games (11.8%).

Playoff Touchdown Leaders:

1. Kenneth Walker III: 3 total TDs (1 game)
2. Kyren Williams: 3 total TDs (2 games)
3. Puka Nacua: 2 total TDs (2 games)
4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 1 total TD (1 game)
5. Marvin Mims: 1 total TD (1 game)

All of Colby Parkinson, DeMario Douglas, Frank Crum, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Stefon Diggs all have one touchdown too.

Notable Active Touchdown Streaks

• Kyren Williams – has a touchdown in each of his last 2 games (both playoff games)

The Rams RB is the only player riding an active touchdown streak of at least two games.

Anytime TD Defensive Stats & Analysis

The stats in the table above combine the 2025 regular season and two weeks of playoffs we have seen so far.

The Seahawks are allowing just 16.6 points per game, the fewest in the NFL this season (when considering playoffs too). They’re only surrendering 1.72 touchdowns per game, with the majority coming through the air.

The Rams are allowing the most points per game among the four teams standing. LA is allowing 20.7 points per contest, which ranks 10th in the league – still quite impressive. Simply put, the defenses we are preparing to see on Sunday are all at least pretty good, some of which are great.

None of these teams are allowing more than 0.61 rushing touchdowns per game. The biggest vulnerability we can see is the Rams passing defense, as they’re allowing 1.53 passing touchdowns per game.

Looking at red zone defense, three of the teams rank in the top five for red zone touchdown % allowed. Denver ranks the best among the four, only allowing a TD on 44.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives, which is second-best in the league. The Patriots are the worst in this category, giving up a TD on 62.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives. But they don’t allow teams to enter the red zone very often.

Looking to recent results, not a single one of these four teams allowed a rushing touchdown last week. It is worth noting that the Broncos gave up 30 points, which was three touchdowns (all of which came through the air), to the Bills in their lone playoff game so far. Denver also allowed Buffalo to score a touchdown on 54.6% of their red zone drives. Both of these are much worse than how they performed in the regular season.

NFL Conference Championship TD Betting Strategy

Using all of the data above, here is how I plan to bet touchdowns this weekend:

• I can’t look away from Kenneth Walker III now that Charbonnet is out. Not only do I expect him to handle the vast majority of the touches, but he is the only player who has scored a TD in both games between the Rams and Seahawks this season. He’s as long as -145 at theScore Bet.
• After Puka Nacua torched the Seahawks for 225 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 16, I expect Mike Mcdonald to put together a firm plan to ensure Nacua is held in check on Sunday. With that in mind, I believe we’ll see Davante Adams, who scored in their Week 11 meeting, left with favorable matchups. His best odds are +125 at theScore Bet.
• The Broncos run defense really tightens up in the red zone, but they have some vulnerability through the air. I like Kayshon Boutte to be the player who takes advantage. Boutte played the second most snaps (53.1%) among Patriots receivers in the Wild Card Round, and by far the most in the Divisional Round (83.1%). I like New England to look to target him versus Riley Moss. The best odds to bet Boutte to score a TD are +260 at bet365.
• I don’t believe Denver’s offense is going to suffer much with Jarrett Stidham taking over. I actually think he might know the offense better than Bo Nix right now, and he showed a strong willingness to push the ball down the field in the preseason. The Broncos receiver who is open a lot more than his stats would suggest is Courtland Sutton, and his +300 odds at bet365 are just too good to pass up.

The post NFL Conference Championship Touchdown Prop Analysis: TD Trends & Defensive Stats to Know appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We also have some massive changes at key positions, or in regard to workloads for certain players, after seeing Bo Nix and Zach Charbonnet injured in their respective games last weekend.

I cover all the data needed – including season averages and how the defense they face has performed versus their position this year – in order to make informed bets when it comes to NFL player props for the Conference Championships below.

NFL Conference Championship Passing Props Analysis

Three of the four teams playing in the Conference Championships have not given up many passing yards per game, while the fourth is pretty average. So, navigating passing props for this weekend will require some extra research.

Passing Props & Matchups

*Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards per game is from the two games he started as a Bronco in 2023. All other stats are a combination of regular season and playoffs.

Stafford’s passing yards over/under is by far the highest of the week at 254.5, and for good reason. He has averaged 277.3 passing yards per game this season and threw for 457 yards the last time he played the Seahawks (Week 16). Jarrett Stidham is on the other end with the lowest over/under for passing yards at just 199.5. Stidham is making his first start since the 2023 season in place of the injured Bo Nix.

Keep up with the latest lines and get the best odds for both the over and under with all four QBs above on our NFL passing yards props page.

Stidham faces the toughest test this weekend, taking on a Patriots defense that has allowed just 204.4 gross passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Darnold has the easiest matchup (on paper), getting a Rams defense that ranks 22nd against the pass, surrendering 237.3 gross passing yards per game.

Sam Darnold is the only QB whose over/under for passing yards this week is higher than his season average. Darnold has averaged 231.8 passing yards this season but his over/under is 234.5.

Playoff Passing Stats

Here’s how the quarterbacks above, minus Jarrett Stidham since he hasn’t played this season, have fared so far in the NFL playoffs:

• Matthew Stafford: 281 Pass YPG | 42 Pass Att/Gm | 5.89 Net Yards Per Attempt | 460 Air Yards/Gm
• Drake Maye: 223.5 Pass YPG | 28 Pass Att/Gm | 5.73 Net Yards Per Attempt | Air Yards/Gm
• Sam Darnold: 124 Pass YPG | 17 Pass Att/Gm | 5.58 Net Yards Per Attempt | 154 Air Yards/Gm

Stafford has carried on his regular season success into the two playoff games he has played so far, and has been by far the most effective QB in the playoffs. Maye has been a little quieter than he was in the regular season, but he has played two very good defenses in the Chargers and Texans, with the latter being in a blizzard.

The Seahawks didn’t really need Darnold in their blowout win over the 49ers last week, as he only threw for 124 yards and was lifted from the game pretty early.

For what it’s worth, Bo Nix threw for 279 yards against a Bills defense that had allowed the fewest gross passing yards per game this season.

Conference Championship Passing Trends

• Drake Maye (NE): Has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 12 of his last 18 games (1.9 passing touchdowns/game average)
• Matthew Stafford (LA): The veteran has been in championship form, exceeding 254.5 passing yards in 7 straight games (313.7 passing yards/game average)
• Sam Darnold (SEA): Has failed to exceed 234.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (184.8 passing yards/game average). Against elite defenses at home, he has thrown an interception in 7 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (1.1 interceptions/game average) and failed to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games at home (0.8 passing touchdowns/game average).

Bet any of these trends after taking advantage of our BetMGM signup offer.

NFL Rushing Props Data for Conference Championships

While the four defenses in the Conference Championships were good against the pass, they’re even better against the run. Not only is the top team against the run (yards per carry) playing, but three of them rank in the top five for rushing yards allowed per game.

Rushing Props & Matchups

All the lines above are accurate as of Friday morning. Be sure to check our NFL rushing yards props tool, where you can get the latest lines and find the best over and under odds for all players.

We have yet to see over/unders on rushing yards for any Broncos running backs, as JK Dobbins’ status is up in the air after Denver activated his practice window. Should Dobbins suit up, he will certainly be used in some capacity, limiting RJ Harvey’s touches.

The player with the highest over/under for rushing yards in the Conference Championships is Kenneth Walker III. Not only is Walker going to see an increase in workload after Zach Charbonnet suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, but he also has the easiest matchup of the weekend. The Rams team he will face is the only defense standing that allows 100+ rushing yards per game (111.9) and rank 16th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.28).

Rams running backs are expected to be facing the toughest matchup this weekend, as the Seahawks rank 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game (92.8), which is best among the remaining teams, and allowed the fewest yards per carry this season (3.76).

It’s also worth noting that the Broncos gave up 183 rushing yards to the Bills in their lone playoff game so far – a massive difference from their regular season average. So, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson might be players to look at.

Playoff Rushing Stats

Here’s a quick look at how these running backs have performed in their 1-2 playoff games so far:

• Kyren Williams: 34 att, 144 yds, 72 YPG, 4.24 YPC, 2 TD
• Blake Corum: 17 att, 64 yds, 32.0 YPG, 3.76 YPC, 0 TD

• Kenneth Walker III: 19 att, 116 yds, 116 YPG, 6.11 YPC, 3 TD
• Zach Charbonnet: 5 att, 20 yds, 20.0 YPG, 4.00 YPC, 0 TD

• RJ Harvey: 6 att, 20 yds, 20 YPG, 3.33 YPC, 0 TD

• TreVeyon Henderson: 21 att, 52 yds, 26 YPG, 2.48 YPC, 0 TD
• Rhamondre Stevenson: 26 att, 123 yds, 61.5 YPG, 4.73 YPC, 0 TD

While Kyren Williams has the most rushing yards so far, he has also played two games. Kenneth Walker III had a monster game last week, in his lone game, going for 116 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Conference Championship Rushing Trends

• Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): Has shown vulnerability in favorable game scripts, failing to exceed 47.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games as a favorite (35.8 rushing yards/game average).
• RJ Harvey (DEN): Has struggled with consistency in recent outings, failing to exceed 43.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (35.2 rushing yards/game average).
• Kyren Williams (LA): Has exceeded 13.5 rushing attempts in 11 straight games as an underdog (21.7 rushing attempts/game average). Against elite defenses, he has exceeded 53.5 rushing yards in 12 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (80.2 rushing yards/game average).
• Blake Corum (LA): Has exceeded 7.5 rushing attempts in 4 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (11.8 rushing attempts/game average). He has also exceeded 28.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 8 games (58.6 rushing yards/game average).

Use our signup offer at theScore Bet to tail any of these trends!

NFL Receiving Props Data & Analysis for Conference Championships

We already touched on how good three of the four defenses standing are against the pass. Here’s a look at the expectations from receivers this weekend, along with their season stats.

Receiving Props & Matchups

The over/unders in the table above are accurate as of Friday morning. Before you place your bets, check out our NFL receiving yards props tool to find the current lines and best over/under odds for all players.

The player with the highest over/under for receiving yards in the Conference Championships is Puka Nacua at 90.5, which is about 14 yards shy of his season average so far. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a very close second at 89.5.

Broncos receivers have the toughest matchup on paper, as the Patriots are allowing the seventh-fewest gross passing yards this season. Seahawks receivers have the easiest matchup, taking on a Rams defense that is allowing the 11th-most gross passing yards per game. Sportsbooks must be expecting Seattle to lean on the running game instead of attacking through the air, as JSN’s prop line is more than 11 yards shy of his season average.

There are only two receivers in the table above whose receiving over/under for Sunday is higher than their season average: Pat Bryant and AJ Barner.

Playoff Receiving Stats

Here are the top pass-catchers in terms of receiving yards so far in the playoffs:

1. Puka Nacua (LAR) – 167 yards, 15 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
2. Kayshon Boutte (NE) – 141 yards, 7 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • Impressive 77.8% catch rate on 9 targets
   • 70.5 yds/game average
3. Davante Adams (LAR) – 96 yards, 7 rec (2 games)
   • 19 targets but struggling with 36.8% catch rate
   • 48 yds/game
4. Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) – 93 yards, 8 rec, 1 TD (1 game)
   • Leads current receivers with 93 yds/game
5. Colby Parkinson (LAR) – 90 yards, 5 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • Top TE with 45 yds/game
6. Tyler Higbee (LAR) – 72 yards, 3 rec (2 games)
7. Hunter Henry (NE) – 69 yards, 4 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • 57.1% catch rate, 34.5 yds/game
8. Cooper Kupp (SEA) – 60 yards, 5 rec (1 game)
   • Perfect 100% catch rate (5/5)
9. Stefon Diggs (NE) – 56 yards, 6 rec, 1 TD (2 games)
   • 54.5% catch rate on 11 targets
10. Courtland Sutton (DEN) – 53 yards, 4 rec (1 game)
    • 44.4% catch rate on 9 targets

Conference Championship Receiving Trends

• Puka Nacua (LA): Has shown recent inconsistency, failing to exceed 102.5 rushing + receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games (83.5 rushing + receiving yards/game average).
• Davante Adams (LA): Has thrived as an underdog throughout the playoffs, exceeding 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games as an underdog (7.2 receptions/game average).
• Tyler Higbee (LA): Has been exceptional against elite defenses, exceeding 15.5 receiving yards in 10 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses (36.8 receiving yards/game average) and maintaining road success with 5 straight games exceeding 15.5 receiving yards (32.8 receiving yards/game average).
• Stefon Diggs (NE): Has struggled against quality opposition, failing to exceed 46.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games against opponents with winning records (32.0 receiving yards/game average). He has also shown inconsistency after victories, failing to exceed 4.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games after a win (3.3 receptions/game average).
• Hunter Henry (NE): Has faced challenges against elite defenses, failing to exceed 41.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games against top 10 scoring defenses (24.4 receiving yards/game average). Against winning teams, he has failed to exceed 3.5 receptions in 6 straight games (1.3 receptions/game average).
• Courtland Sutton (DEN): Has been consistently productive, exceeding 51.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 8 games (60.0 receiving yards/game average)

Tail any of these trends after claiming your bet365 signup bonus!

The post All the Data Needed to Make the Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Conference Championships appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Each one of these lines caught my attention immediately, and I grew even more fond after I took a look at the pertinent stats/data. I have shared my justification for each pick below, as well as the sportsbook with the best odds for the parlay (and each leg).

Divisional Round Sunday NFL Parlay Picks

My favorite NFL parlay for Sunday includes three picks across the Texans vs Patriots and Rams vs Bears games. FanDuel had the best odds for this parlay at the time of writing, but the leg from the Texans vs Patriots game has better odds at a different sportsbook, if you care to play it as a single as well – I always do!

I disclose the best sportsbook for each pick in my analysis below, where I also reveal the data to support why I like each of these NFL picks so much.

Texans vs Patriots to Be Low-Scoring

The Texans have allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season, only surrendering 16.7 per game. The Patriots defense ranks third, only allowing 17.9 points per game.

I appreciate that the Patriots scored the second-most points this regular season, but they also only played one defense ranked in the top 11 in points allowed. That game came last week against the Chargers, where they only managed 16 points – the lone touchdown came in the 4th quarter.

The Texans defense presents a far greater challenge on Sunday, while the weather (snow expected) is also expected to be a factor. I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than the 16 points they managed last week.

On the other side, the Texans offense looked horrific last week. Their defense was responsible for 14 of their 30 points – two defensive TDs – and CJ Stroud continued to be careless with the football. Stroud will now be without his top target, Nico Collins, for this one, and. facing a far better defense.

• Pick: Under 40.5 in Texans vs Patriots (-105 at DraftKings)

Why I Like D’Andre Swift vs Rams in the Cold

I can understand some people not liking this pick. D’Andre Swift has not recorded 60+ rushing yards in any of his last four games. But throw those out because the Soldier Field temperature forecast is looking very cold, which was not the case in any of those games!

D’Andre Swift Recent Game Logs

In the last three games Ben Johnson’s offenses have played in below freezing temperatures, two of which have come this season with the Bears, his offense averages 32.3 rushing attempts per game. Last week’s Wild Card matchup against the Packers does not count, as it was not below freezing.

The two games from this season show up in Swift’s game log above – Week 14 and Week 15. Swift recorded 60+ rushing yards in both of those games, which came against similarly ranked run defenses to what he’ll see Sunday night against the Rams (12th).

I suspect the cold to slow the Rams aerial attack slightly, while Johnson does everything he can to win the physicality battle. Johnson invested heavily into his offensive line this offseason for this exact type of game.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift 60+ Rushing Yards (+116 at FanDuel)

Colby Parkinson Remains Steady vs Bears

With stars. like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at wide receiver, it’s easy to forget about Colby Parkinson, which is what I think the sportsbooks have done here. Parkinson has played at least 75% of LA’s offensive snaps in each of the last five games, and has played 84%+ in three of them.

He’s been taking full advantage of the extra snaps and putting up a pretty steady number of receiving yards over the second half of the season.

Colby Parkinson Game Logs

Parkinson has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of his last three games, and seven of his last eight. When considering the expected frigid temperatures, which will likely result in more balls thrown around the line of scrimmage, I also really like that since Week 10, Parkinson’s average air yards per target is just 4.5 yards and he averages 25.3 yards after the catch per game.

The Bears rank 22nd against the pass and there’s no way Sean McVay lets the weather stop the Rams offense from attacking Chicago through the air. When they do, I like Parkinson to see his handful of targets, which he’ll turn into more than 25 yards.

• Pick: Colby Parkinson 25+ Receiving Yards (+136 at FanDuel)

The post Sunday NFL Parlay Picks – Get Better Than 7-1 Odds for Divisional Round Parlay appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

That’s what I’m doing here today – I have rounded up the most compelling team and player trends for each of the four NFL Divisional Round matchups this weekend, and will share some extra context for each, while also letting you know whether I’m turning each trend into an NFL pick or throwing it in the trash.

NFL Trends for Bills at Broncos

Player Trend: Josh Allen has failed to exceed 35.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 games on the road, averaging just 27.7 rushing yards in those contests.

As you have probably guessed, Josh Allen’s rushing over/under was set at 35.5 at the time of writing this. His line opened at 38.5, showing a shift of three yards already. However, I don’t believe this specific trend is responsible for driving the line down. I believe that has come as a result of Allen nursing who knows how many injuries, as well as the Broncos defense ranking third against the run.

If you look at Allen’s last seven road games, the majority of them come against good defenses. Have a look:

Date	Opponent	Opp Rush Def Rank	Rush Yards	Over/Under 38.5?	Result
1/11/26	@ Jacksonville (WC)	#3	33	UNDER	W, 27-24
12/21/25	@ Cleveland	#16	17	UNDER	W, 23-20
12/14/25	@ New England	#6	48	OVER	W, 35-31
11/30/25	@ Pittsburgh	#13	38	UNDER	W, 26-7
11/20/25	@ Houston	#4	20	UNDER	L, 23-19
11/09/25	@ Miami	#26	31	UNDER	L, 30-13
10/26/25	@ Carolina	#20	7	UNDER	W, 40-9

I left the scores in there to give some extra context as to why Allen’s legs weren’t needed against the Panthers.

This trend is a little too obscure for me. If you want to bet the under on Allen’s rushing yards, I’m not trying to stop you. I’m just urging you not to make that pick based on this trend. I also want to add that Denver plays a ton of man-coverage, which could leave a lot of running room for Allen if he’s able to evade the pass-rush.

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Team Trend: The Denver Broncos are 13-1 (.929) straight up in their last 14 games at home as a favorite.

While this trend also includes a home/road split, I see more reason behind why this would be a legitimate trend. The Broncos hold one of the best homefield advantages in all of sports. They force their opponents to play at altitude, leading to fatigue more often/quickly since they aren’t used to it.

It has worked out incredibly well for them lately:

Date	Week	Opponent	Spread	Score	Result
01/04/26	Week 18	vs LA Chargers	-14.5	19-3	W
12/21/25	Week 16	vs Jacksonville	-3.5	20-34	L
11/06/25	Week 10	vs Las Vegas	-8.5	10-7	W
10/26/25	Week 8	vs Dallas	-4.5	44-24	W
10/19/25	Week 7	vs NY Giants	-8.5	33-32	W
09/29/25	Week 4	vs Cincinnati	-7	28-3	W
09/07/25	Week 1	vs Tennessee	-8.5	20-12	W
01/05/25	Week 18	vs Kansas City	-11.5	38-0	W
12/15/24	Week 15	vs Indianapolis	-4.5	31-13	W
12/02/24	Week 13	vs Cleveland	-6.5	41-32	W
11/17/24	Week 11	vs Atlanta	-2	38-6	W
10/27/24	Week 8	vs Carolina	-13	28-14	W
10/06/24	Week 5	vs Las Vegas	-3	34-18	W
12/31/23	Week 17	vs LA Chargers	-3	16-9	W

The one knock I will throw out there is this list of opponents is pretty weak. But you can only beat the teams in front of you, and they have been doing that as home favorites.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend

NFL Trends for 49ers vs Seahawks

Player Trend: Christian McCaffrey has failed to exceed 54.5 rushing yards in 4 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging a mere 31.5 rushing yards per game.

Even one of the league’s most dynamic offensive weapons has had his struggles against the NFL’s stingiest units. However, part of the lack of rushing production can be chalked up to the way the 49ers have used Christian McCaffrey as a receiver this season. Here’s a look at each game from this trend:

While this trend is focused on his last four games vs top 10 scoring defenses, it holds up pretty well if you extend it back a little further too. CMC barely went over this total against the Seahawks in Week 1 and the Rams in Week 5 – it’s notable that he failed to do so the second time he saw each of these teams – while going under against the Jaguars in Week 4.

Not only is the Seahawks defense he’s about to face the best in the league against the run (yards allowed per carry), but the 49ers will also be playing without George Kittle, who we know is a great asset in their run game.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend – under 54.5 comes with -110 odds at DraftKings

Team Trend: The Under has hit in each of the last 3 matchups between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

Divisional rivalries are capable of producing some grueling games with both teams knowing each other so well – and really not liking each other as a result. That has been the case in each of the last three games between the Seahawks and 49ers. Here’s a look at the total points scored in those games:

• Week 18: 16 points (48.5 o/u)
• Week 1: 30 points (43 o/u)
• Week 11, 2024: 37 points (48.5 o/u)

These games haven’t just gone under, but well under their respective totals. It makes sense, though, as these teams rank 1st (Seahawks) and 13th in points allowed this season. Mike Macdonald and Robert Saleh are two of the best defensive minds in the NFL right now, and in spite of the 49ers having to pay without some of their defensive stars, I like this trend!

The total is again set as high as 45.5 as sportsbooks expect the offenses to come through.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend

Texans vs Patriots Notable NFL Trends

Player Trend: C.J. Stroud has thrown an interception in 6 of his last 7 games against opponents who finished with a winning record.

This pattern suggests that when Stroud is forced to push the ball down the field, he does so carelessly. Here’s a look at those seven games:

I like this trend because it correlates with CJ Stroud’s lack of accuracy with the football this season. Only 66.9% of Stroud’s passes were considered “catchable passes,” which ranks 29th in the NFL among QBs who have completed at least 60 passes this season. Add in the fact that his favorite target, Nico Collins, will also miss their Divisional Round game, along with their opponent, the Patriots, being another team who has the ability to force Stroud to push the ball, and I think this one has a really good chance of continuing.

• Verdict: Trust the Trend – over 0.5 interceptions for Stroud comes with +100 odds at bet365

Team Trend: The Texans have won their last 10 games and are a perfect 4-0 against the spread (ATS) on the road over their last four games.

The Texans have been red hot over the second half of the season. They needed to be after their horrendous start to the 2025 campaign. Here are their last ten games:

There are some really good wins in here – the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers etc – but there were some layups as well – Colts in Week 18, Raiders, Cardinals, Titans etc. So, I wouldn’t take this trend to the bank. They’re playing good football but I believe the Patriots are a much different opponent than they have played over the last ten games.

To be clear, I am not saying you shouldn’t bet the Texans. I am just saying you should not use this trend to justify the pick.

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Notable NFL Trends for Rams vs Bears

Player Trend: Kyren Williams has exceeded 73.5 rushing + receiving yards in 11 straight games against bottom 10 rushing defenses, averaging 105.2 total yards per game in those contests.

It feels like Kyren Williams has been the overlooked piece of the Rams offense, as Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and even Davante Adams get the majority of the attention. He has also been surrendering more work to Blake Corum.

Date	Opponent	Rush Def Rank	Rush Yds	Rec Yds	Rush + Rec Yds	Over/Under 73.5
10/01/23	@ Indianapolis	#24	103	24	127	OVER
10/15/23	vs Arizona	#32	158	0	158	OVER
11/26/23	@ Arizona	#32	143	61	204	OVER
12/17/23	vs Washington	#27	152	3	155	OVER
12/31/23	@ NY Giants	#29	87	14	101	OVER
09/29/24	@ Chicago	#28	94	10	104	OVER
11/17/24	@ New England	#23	86	0	86	OVER
12/01/24	@ New Orleans	#31	104	9	113	OVER
12/07/25	@ Arizona	#25	84	13	97	OVER
12/29/25	@ Atlanta	#24	92	38	130	OVER
01/04/26	vs Arizona	#25	60	21	81	OVER

What I don’t like about this trend is that the majority of the games were not played this season. As I noted above, Corum is a real factor in the Rams backfield. I actually do like this bet, but not because he has accomplished this in 11 straight games.

I like it because I believe the cold weather plus the Bears inability to stop the run is going to result in the Rams leaning on the ground game a little more than normal. (Over 73.5 rush + rec yards for Kyren Williams is listed at -110 odds at theScore Bet.)

• Verdict: Throw it Out

Team Trend:The Los Angeles Rams are 16-3 straight up as a favorite over their last 19 games.

When sportsbooks tab the Rams as the favorite, they deliver with ruthless efficiency. Here’s a look at these 19 games:

However, I don’t love that this trend spans across multiple seasons, as things are so different year-to-year, and they are just 4-2 in their last six games when favored.

The Rams also face a pretty unique situation thus weekend in Chicago with expected frigid temperatures, and potential snowfall, which could dramatically shift game plans and execution of that plan. So, similar to the previous team trend, I am not saying don’t bet the Rams to win. I am just saying justify the pick with something better than this.

• Verdict: Throw it Out

The post NFL Team & Player Trends for Divisional Round – Which Trends to Trust & Which to Throw Out appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

In fact, there is only one team playing who finished outside of the top 12 in points allowed. So, with what may be a lower-scoring weekend of football, it’s going to be more important than ever to dive into the data to find where the best value is when it comes to betting touchdowns in the NFL Divisional Round. I break down all the pertinent player stats for scoring touchdowns, including TD leaders and most consistent TD scorers, as well as defensive stats for allowing points/touchdowns.

NFL Anytime Touchdown Stats & Odds for Divisional Round

The table above is sorted by total touchdowns scored in descending order, in an attempt to give you a look at the best touchdown scorers and to see which players are getting shorter/longer odds than their own scoring stats would suggest. The data includes the 2025 regular season as well as Wild Card Weekend.

Not only has Christian McCaffrey scored the most touchdowns (19) among players participating in the NFL Divisional Round, but he also has scored a touchdown in the highest percentage of games (72.2%).

There are a couple of players who stand out from this list that deserve some more context. The first one is Woody Marks, who is given short +165 odds to score a TD against the Patriots in spite of only scoring six total touchdowns this season. The context we need to consider here is that he has scored in two of his last five games, and Nico Collins, their main red-zone threat, is expected to be out.

Next up is Jake Tonges, who has only scored five touchdowns in the 18 games he has played. However, four of those touchdowns have come with George Kittle out of the game, which includes him leaving Week 1 early. So, if you only look at those Kittle-less games, Tonges has scored four TDs in seven games, which makes his +300 odds look much more enticing.

Notable Active TD Streaks:

The following players are enjoying active touchdown streaks of at least three games – sort of a who’s hot list:

• Puka Nacua – has a TD in each of his last 4 games
• Zach Charbonnet – has a TD in each of his last 3 games
• Colby Parkinson – has a TD in each of his last 2 games

Anytime TD Defensive Stats & Analysis

The data in the table above includes both the 2025 regular season and 2026 Wild Card Weekend. It is sorted by points allowed per game in ascending order.

The Texans allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL this season, only surrendering 16.7 per game. But we also see the second, third, and fourth-ranked teams in points allowed per game suiting up this weekend. Even the Rams, Bills, and 49ers all rank in the top 12. The Bears are the only team outside of the top 12, as they allow 24.6 points per game, good for 23rd.

The Broncos allow the fewest touchdowns per game at just 1.71, whereas the Texans allow 1.94. The Bears are giving up 2.94 touchdowns per game, giving us all good reason to take a look at Rams TD scorers – though, we need to factor in the forecasted cold weather.

Seattle gives up the fewest rushing touchdowns at just 0.53 per game, giving Christian McCaffrey anytime TD bettors something to think about (especially after he failed to score a TD against them in Week 18), while the Bills give up the most among the remaining teams with 1.33 per game – hello, RJ Harvey!

When it comes to passing touchdowns, the Broncos only allow 1.06 touchdowns through the air per game, the fewest among the remaining teams, while the Bears give up 2.0 per game, the most.

Denver also finished the season with the best red zone TD% allowed, as they only gave up a TD to their opponents on 42.6% of their red zone drives. The Patriots, surprisingly, are the worst among remaining teams in this category, as they allowed a TD on 64.3% of their opponents’ red zone drives. New England just doesn’t allow their opponent to enter the red zone very often.

NFL Divisional Round TD Betting Strategy

Based off all of the data above, both player stats, defensive stats, and the odds, I am walking away with the following strategy for betting touchdowns this weekend:

• I’m targeting Rams pass-catchers to score a TD in spite of the cold weather forecasted. Stafford threw for 291 yards against a far better Eagles defense in the playoffs last season when the temperature was 34 degrees. Getting Puka Nacua at -110 at theScore Bet is a great price, in my opinion.
• The Bills defense is so bad against the run that I cannot look away from RJ Harvey, despite the Broncos offensive inconsistencies and Harvey’s short odds. The best price at the moment is -125 at theScore Bet.
• I don’t think I’ll bet any players from the Patriots vs Texans game. Not only are both defenses very good, but neither offense strikes much confidence in me after seeing them against inferior defenses last week.
• While the Broncos defense is very good against the pass, their weakness comes when a QB is able to evade the pressure and extend plays. Though he’s pretty banged up, I still believe Josh Allen will be able to do this, and think Dalton Kincaid at +300 (also at theScore Bet) odds is a good bet.
• The combo of George Kittle, an excellent run-blocking tight end, being out and facing a very stingy Seahawks run defense has me down on CMC finding the endzone. I think the best value play in this game is Jake Tonges at +320 odds on FanDuel, who I believe is being overlooked.

The post NFL Divisional Round Anytime Touchdown Scorer Analysis: TD Leaders, Trends & Defensive Matchups appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With only eight teams taking the field in the Divisional Round, it allows for sportsbooks to open NFL player props a little earlier than normal, and also allows me to take a deeper dive into each of the teams and players. This comprehensive NFL player prop betting guide for the Divisional Round dissects the data for all passing, rushing, and receiving yard props, analyzes the matchups, and surfaces up some notable player trends so you can bet Divisional Round props with confidence.

NFL Divisional Round Passing Props Analysis

Every quarterback who won in Wild Card Weekend threw for at least 250 yards. But we now throw two more of the top 12 pass defenses back into the field in the Divisional Round, as the Seahawks and Broncos are set to play their first games of the NFL Playoffs. Before you go and bet any passing props for this weekend, check out all the passing stats I have pulled for each player/team below.

Passing Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

The table above is only considering regular season stats for the players and team defenses. These passing lines are likely to see some major fluctuation as the week goes on, so be sure to check our NFL passing yard props tool, which will show you the current lines across multiple sportsbooks and pull out the best odds for the bet you want to make, before placing your wagers.

Bo Nix faces the toughest test in the Divisional Round, taking on a Bills defense that finished the regular season ranked #1 against the pass. Buffalo only surrenders an average of 170.2 passing yards per game. This explains why Nix’s over/under for passing yards is 213.5, which is 17.7 yards less than his season average.

The same goes for Drake Maye, who faces what looks to be a dominant Texans defense. Houston allowed 205.1 passing yards per game in the regular season, which ranked 7th. Maye’s passing prop line is set at 222.5, which is 36 yards fewer than his regular season average.

Matthew Stafford has the highest over/under for passing yards among the eight quarterbacks playing this week, which is the same as we saw last week as well. However, his line is set at 265.5, which is actually 11.4 yards below his regular season average, in spite of playing the 22nd-ranked pass defense from the regular season.

Recent Passing Stats

Here’s a quick look at Wild Card passing stats for the players who are suiting up in the Divisional Round:

1. Caleb Williams: 361 passing yards
2. Matthew Stafford: 304
3. Josh Allen: 273
4. Drake Maye: 268
5. Brock Purdy: 262
6. C.J. Stroud: 250

Caleb Williams was way over his regular season average, eclipsing it by 129.1 yards. No QB who advanced through the Wild Card Round threw for fewer yards than their regular season average – Drake Maye exceeded his regular season average by just 9.5 yards, which was the fewest among the six QBs listed.

Although, it should be noted that C.J. Stroud’s 250 passing yards last week were the lowest among the QBs advancing, and without a doubt the ugliest – Stroud put forth one of the worst games I have ever seen him play.

And then here are the gross passing yards allowed by each team who advanced through the Wild Card Round:

1. Texans: 148 passing yards allowed
2. Patriots: 159 passing yards allowed
3. 49ers: 168 passing yards allowed
4. Bills: 207 passing yards allowed
5. Rams: 264 passing yards allowed
6. Bears: 323 passing yards allowed

The Texans were dominant against the pass, only giving up 148 gross passing yards to the Steelers last week. The Bears, however, gave up 323 passing yards to Jordan Love and the Packers.

QB Trends for Divisional Round

Here are a few notable quarterback trends for Divisional Round:

• Caleb Williams has exceeded 227.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 279.0 yards per contest
• Josh Allen has exceeded 213.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games against top 10 passing defenses, averaging 244.8 yards in those matchups
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 212.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 road games, averaging 241.0 yards
• Brock Purdy has thrown an interception in 10 consecutive games against top 10 rushing defenses; his interception prop set at 0.5 (Over -170)

I think the most compelling trend from the list above is Josh Allen going over 213.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 vs top 10 passing defenses. While the chart above shows the Broncos as the 11th-ranked pass defense, that is just considering gross passing yards allowed, since that’s all we care about when betting passing props.

When you factor in yards lost on sacks (net passing yards), the Broncos rank 7th. Allen ends up performing so well against these defenses because of his ability to create extra opportunities with his legs – escaping the pocket and buying more time for his receivers.

I think the weakest one is C.J. Stroud’s road success. This one requires some extra context and a note that he’s not just playing any team on the road this week – he’s up against a very good Patriots pass defense.

Analysis of Divisional Round Rushing Props

We largely saw good run defenses advance through Wild Card Weekend, outside of the Bills and Bears, and we also get two of the best run defenses entering the field in the Divisional Round. Here’s what I believe is some of the most pertinent data to be aware of prior to betting any rushing props this weekend:

Rushing Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

Once again, the rushing averages and defensive run stats are all from the regular season. I will summarize the Wild Card rushing performances below. Before you place any bets, make sure you check in with our NFL rushing yards props page, where you will find all the current over/unders as well as the best odds for each side of every player.

James Cook will face the toughest run defense still playing, as the Broncos allowed just 91.1 rushing yards per game in the regular season, the second-fewest. The Seahawks, who will face Christian McCaffrey this weekend, were slightly better than the Broncos when it comes to yards allowed per rushing attempt, though. Seattle allows just 3.74 yards per carry, the best in the NFL, while the Broncos allow 3.87, good for third-best.

RJ Harvey has the best matchup this weekend, which is reflected in his rushing yards over/under. Harvey’s rushing line is set at 54.5, which is 22.7 yards higher than his season average – though, his season average is a little deceiving since he was not the starter for most of the season. This is the result of playing a Bills defense that ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in yards allowed per carry.

Recent Rushing Stats

Here’s how each RB playing this weekend performed in the Divisional Round, as well as how the teams who advanced held up against the run:

1. Woody Marks (Texans) – 112 yards, 19 att, 5.9 YPC
2. Kyren Williams (Rams) – 57 yards, 13 att, 4.4 YPC
3. D’Andre Swift (Bears) – 54 yards, 13 att, 4.2 YPC
4. Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) – 53 yards, 10 att, 5.3 YPC
5. Christian McCaffrey (49ers) – 48 yards, 15 att, 3.2 YPC
6. Nick Chubb (Texans) – 48 yards, 10 att, 4.8 YPC
7. James Cook III (Bills) – 46 yards, 15 att, 3.1 YPC
8. Blake Corum (Rams) – 45 yards, 11 att, 4.1 YPC
9. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) – 27 yards, 9 att, 3.0 YPC
10. Kyle Monangai (Bears) – 27 yards, 8 att, 3.4 YPC

Woody Marks had a monster game against the Steelers, averaging 5.9 yards per carry while totaling 112 yards. This was the high among all players.

Rhamondre Stevenson was also very efficient, averaging 5.3 yards per carry on his way to 53 rushing yards, while his Patriots backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson had a tough day, only averaging 3 yards per carry on nine attempts.

And here’s how each team in the Divisional Round held up against the run last week:

1. Texans – 63 yards allowed, 18 att, 3.5 YPC
2. Rams – 83 yards allowed, 22 att, 3.8 YPC
3. Patriots – 87 yards allowed, 22 att, 4.0 YPC
4. Bears – 99 yards allowed, 23 att, 4.3 YPC
5. 49ers – 140 yards allowed, 36 att, 3.9 YPC
6. Bills – 154 yards allowed, 23 att, 6.7 YPC

The Bills were gashed on the ground, as usual, allowing 154 yards on 6.7 yards per carry. Houston, on the other hand, completely shut the Steelers ground game down, holding them to 63 yards on just 3.5 yards per carry.

RB Trends for Divisional Round

Notable running back trends for NFL Divisional Round:

• Kyren Williams has exceeded 62.5 rushing yards in 15 of his last 20 games, averaging 74.5 rushing yards per contest
• D’Andre Swift has exceeded 54.5 rushing yards in 5 straight games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging 83.8 rushing yards per game with his prop set at 55.5 yards
• Woody Marks has exceeded 58.5 rushing yards in 5 consecutive games against opponents with winning records, averaging 76.8 yards per game
• James Cook has exceeded 81.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 road games, averaging 106.0 rushing yards per game with his prop set at 77.5 yards
• Christian McCaffrey has exceeded 16.5 rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 primetime games, with his attempt prop set at 16.5
• Kenneth Walker has exceeded 54.5 rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 home games, averaging 65.3 yards per contest

The most compelling rushing stat from the list above is Kyren Williams going over 62.5 yards in 15 of his last 20 games. I like the simplicity here. Williams consistently outperforms this number. However, it should be noted that two of the five unders have come in his last two games.

The trend I like the least is Kenneth Walker’s home success. It lacks context and doesn’t really consider his current opponent.

Breaking Down Receiving Props for Divisional Round

Sadly, we enter the Divisional Round without George Kittle, who tore his Achilles in the 49ers win over the Eagles last week, and are awaiting further injury news on Nico Collins and Ricky Pearsall. But there are still plenty of receiving props available for Saturday and Sunday, and I have pulled the most pertinent stats to know before betting.

Receiving Props Cheat Sheet for Divisional Round

All of the data in the table above is for the regular season – Brandin Cooks’ season average is just from his games with the Bills. You can find Wild Card performances below. The receiving over/unders are accurate as of Wednesday morning, but will likely move as the week goes on. So, don’t place any bets before checking the current lines on our NFL receiving yards props page.

Broncos receivers face the toughest passing defense in the league this week. All of Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Evan Engram see notably lower receiving yard over/unders than their season averages.

The Seahawks and Rams’ receivers should be able to find some space, as they are set to take on the 23rd and 22nd-ranked pass defenses, respectively. However, all notable Rams receivers see over/unders less than their season averages, which is the result of the frigid temperatures expected in Chicago on Sunday night. The same goes for Seahawks receivers, who are all given lower over/unders than their averages, in spite of the weather expected to be a non-factor.

Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba do have the highest over/unders among pass-catchers this week, though.

Recent Receiving Stats

Here are a list of the top receivers from the Wild Card Weekend, who are also playing in the Divisional Round:

1. Christian Kirk (Texans) – 144 yards, 8 rec
2. Colston Loveland (Bears) – 137 yards, 8 rec
3. Puka Nacua (Rams) – 111 yards, 10 rec
4. Demarcus Robinson (49ers) – 111 yards, 6 rec
5. Khalil Shakir (Bills) – 82 yards, 12 rec
6. Davante Adams (Rams) – 72 yards, 5 rec
7. Kayshon Boutte (Patriots) – 66 yards, 4 rec
8. DJ Moore (Bears) – 64 yards, 6 rec
9. Hunter Henry (Patriots) – 64 yards, 3 rec
10. Tyler Higbee (Rams) – 45 yards, 2 rec

Christian Kirk stepped up in a big way for the Texans, recording 144 receiving yards on eight receptions. This was much needed, as Nico Collins was held to 21 yards on just three catches prior to leaving the game with a concussion.

Colston Loveland also continued his run of strong recent performances, recording 137 yards on eight catches. And then here’s a reminder of how each team fared against the pass last week:

1. Texans: 148 passing yards allowed
2. Patriots: 159 passing yards allowed
3. 49ers: 168 passing yards allowed
4. Bills: 207 passing yards allowed
5. Rams: 264 passing yards allowed
6. Bears: 323 passing yards allowed

Receiving Trends for Divisional Round

Here are some of the most notable receiving trends for the NFL Divisional Round:

• Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 7.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games as a favorite, averaging 6.1 catches in that span with his receptions prop set at 7.5
• Davante Adams has exceeded 4.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games against bottom 10 passing defenses, averaging 5.7 receptions with his line at 4.5 catches
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has exceeded 91.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 home games, averaging 99.4 yards with his prop set at 91.5 yards
• Courtland Sutton has exceeded 48.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 10 home games, averaging 68.1 yards per contest over that span, with his prop at 49.5 yards
• Christian Kirk has failed to exceed 47.5 receiving yards in 4 consecutive road games against top 10 scoring defenses, averaging just 11.5 yards per game
• Stefon Diggs has failed to exceed 49.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 home games, averaging only 38.3 yards in those contests with his line at 49.5 yards
• DJ Moore has exceeded 29.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 61.0 yards per game with his prop set at 29.5 yards

I think the most intriguing trend from the list is Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s success at home, since the sample size covers his entire season and one of those games was against the same 49ers team he will play on Saturday night – he recorded 124 receiving yards against them at home in Week 1.

I’m throwing out the Christian Kirk trend for now, since he could see a massive boost in target share if Nico Collins is ruled out.

The post NFL Divisional Round Player Props: Deep Analysis Into Stats, Matchups & Player Trends appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I have done deep dives into each of the three games taking place on Sunday, which starts with the Bills vs Jaguars and finishes with the Chargers vs Patriots, and I have pulled one bold pick from each game to fill in a three-leg parlay that comes with better than 12-1 odds. Check out my favorite NFL parlay for Sunday of Wild Card Weekend below.

Wild Card Sunday NFL Parlay

The sportsbook with the best odds for this NFL parlay is FanDuel, who is offering +1208. This means a $5 bet would stand to profit $60.42 and return $65.42.

Most other sportsbooks are listing this parlay just a touch longer than 11-1.

I also play each of these legs as straight bets, and disclose the best sportsbook for each leg as a single in the subsections below. Read on for the best prices as well as my data-filled breakdown for each of the three NFL parlay legs for Wild Card Sunday.

Parker Washington Continues to Breakout Against Bills

Few receivers are entering the NFL Playoffs on more of a heater than Parker Washington. After a pretty quiet first half of the season, Washington has been an integral part of Jacksonville’s passing attack over the second half, and has been on fire over the last three weeks.

Parker Washington Last 3 Games

Washington has easily hit 60 receiving yards in each of his last three games, averaging 115.7 per game. He actually has the second-most receiving yards in the NFL in this time frame, just one yard shy of Puka Nacua.

The Jags WR is also third in targeted air yards per game (128.7) and ninth in percentage of team targets (28.2%) in that three-game stretch. He has become Trevor Lawrence’s go-to receiver, and I like him to remain that guy against a good Bills pass defense.

While some are siding with Travis Etienne because of how bad the Bills run defense has been this season, Liam Cohen hasn’t really prioritized running the ball when he has faced bad run defenses this season. Cohen wants to throw the ball and I like them to have enough success doing so in order for Washington to get his 60+ yards.

• Pick: Parker Washington 60+ receiving yards (+134 at FanDuel)

Why I Like CMC to Have Success as Receiver vs Eagles

After putting up WR1 numbers through the first seven weeks of the season, averaging 73.7 receiving yards per game, Christian McCaffrey cooled off a bit of a receiver as the 49ers welcomed back George Kittle and then Brokck Purdy a few weeks later.

However, McCaffrey has been seeing good work as a receiver again to close out the season.

McCaffrey Game Logs Weeks 16-18

CMC lead the 49ers in targets over the final three weeks, seeing 22.6% of Brock Purdy’s pass attempts, as well as receptions.

Though he has not recorded 50+ receiving yards since Week 12, I like the volume he’s seeing and believe he will be able to exploit a good matchup on Sunday.

The Eagles allow the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs, and gave up 100+ receiving yards to both Jahmyr Gibbs and Bucky Irving this season. While McCaffrey may not have the same explosion as those two backs anymore, his crafty route running will allow him to get open often.

With George Kittle nursing an ankle injury, which we don’t know the extent of limitations, I expect Kyle Shanahan to move McCaffrey around the formation to create mismatches for him.

• Pick: Christian McCaffrey 50+ receiving yards (+113 at DraftKings)

Why the Chargers Can Beat the Patriots

There are three reasons I like the Chargers to pull off the upset in New England on Sunday night:

1) The Patriots have played such an easy schedule.

No team had it easier in the regular season than the Patriots. New England’s opponents combined for a 113-176 record, which comes out to a .391 win percentage. The team who played the second-easiest schedule (the Broncos) faced opponents who combined for a .422 win percentage.

The Patriots only played three games against teams who finished with winning records, and they went 1-2 in those games. Their only win came in Week 5 against the Bills, a 23-20 victory. The two losses came against the Bills (Week 15) and Steelers (Week 3).

The Chargers didn’t play a tough schedule either – their opponents at least combined for a .469 win percentage, which was fifth-easiest – but they did manage to go 4-3 against teams with winning records. It should also be noted that one of those losses came in Week 18 when they rested most of their starters.

2) The Patriots aren’t built to exploit LA’s biggest weakness

The Chargers’ biggest weakness is their inability to protect Justin Herbert. They allow 3.5 sacks per game, which is tied for second-most in the NFL. But here’s how the Patriots rank in pressure stats:

• 2.06 sacks per game (T22nd)
• 20.3% defensive pressure rate (24th)

Yet, they blitz on 27% of their defensive passing plays, which is 12th-most. K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry III simply do not win enough on the edge when rushing the passer.

If New England isn’t able to apply pressure on Herbert, he will make them pay.

3) I trust Herbert more than Maye right now

The Chargers got some great news with Justin Herbert’s hand injury, as he says he feels much better after the Week 18 rest, and even took snaps under center on Wednesday – something he hasn’t done since fracturing his hand. With a pretty healthy Herbert, I think the Chargers have the advantage at QB.

I don’t mean to take anything away from the great season Drake Maye has enjoyed, but I don’t think he has been tested that much. He’s about to face a very good Chargers defense. I am also aware that Herbert has not performed overly well in the playoffs, going 0-2 and having an especially awful game last year against the Texans, where he threw four interceptions.

I think third time’s a charm for Herbert.

At the time of writing this, the best moneyline odds available for the Chargers was +165 at both BetMGM and theScore Bet. I added a live odds widget below, which will show you the best odds available for your region.

The post NFL Wild Card Parlay Picks for Sunday – Best Bold Picks to Win Big appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

There are four players who are hitting the over/under on their current prop lines in 66%+ of the games they have played in a similar scenario to what they’ll face in Wild Card Weekend. I think it’s bad pricing by the sportsbooks! But I won’t complain about it, rather try to make some money off it.

So, here are the four player props I am betting in the NFL Playoffs this weekend – I broke down and presented all the data behind these player trends in each section below.

1) Puka Nacua Quiet on the Road

The Trend: Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 91.5 receiving yards in 5 of 6 games as road favorite.

I am typically not an under guy, but I had to take this under after uncovering this trend and analyzing the data. In the six games Nacua played on the road this season where the Rams were favored – he missed their Week 7 game due to injury – he averaged just 78.2 receiving yards per game.

It’s also encouraging that one of those games as a road favorite was played against the same Panthers he’ll see on Saturday. Carolina managed to hold Nacua to just 72 yards on six receptions.

If you need more reason, it’s worth noting Davante Adams is expected back in the lineup, and scattered showers (or worse) are expected throughout the game.

• Pick: Puka Nacua under 91.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)

2) D’Andre Swift’s Receiving Reliability

The Trend: D’Andre Swift has exceeded 11.5 receiving yards in 11 of his last 14 games.

This modest yardage threshold has been surpassed by Swift at a 78.6% clip, with the RB averaging 20.1 receiving yards over that stretch. Here’s a look at each one of those games:

Swift’s separate trend of exceeding 11.5 receiving yards in five consecutive primetime games adds another layer of confidence. He even accomplished this feat in both games against the Packers this season.

With a young quarterback playing in his first playoff game, Ben Johnson could look to Swift more frequently underneath in the passing game. I also feel the expected gusty winds in Chicago will benefit Swift, who catches most of his passes around the line of scrimmage.

• Pick: D’Andre Swift over 11.5 receiving yards (-107 at DraftKings)

I am also betting this at 15+ for +121 odds at DraftKings.

3) Trevor Lawrence’s Home Field Advantage

The Trend: Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 236.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games at home.

The general consensus is that the Jaguars will look to take advantage of the Bills’ terrible run defense in their Wild Card matchup. This has led to Lawrence’s over/under for passing yards falling to 236.5. However, his 256.0 passing yard average over his last six home games suggest this line is too low.

Trevor Lawrence’s Last 6 Home Games

Lawrence’s 83.3% hit rate in exceeding 236.5 passing yards at home creates a great value play that goes against the public narrative.

• Pick: Trevor Lawrence over 236.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

4) Herbert’s Success on the Road

The Trend: Justin Herbert has exceeded 223.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 9 road games.

The Patriots are good against the pass, only allowing 206.6 gross passing yards per game, which was 9th-fewest in the NFL this season. However, I’m not sure they’re good enough to move Herbert’s passing yards prop down to just 223.5.

Herbert consistently goes over this total when on the road, averaging 241.9 passing yards per game over his last ten away games.

• Pick: Justin Herbert over 223.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

I’m also betting this at 250+ passing yards at +172 at bet365.

The post 4 NFL Player Trends for Wild Card Weekend Props You Won’t Want to Miss appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Not this Wild Card Weekend, though! I have rounded up all the necessary data needed for betting NFL anytime touchdowns, including the most probable players, touchdown leaders, most consistent touchdown scorers, active touchdown streaks, and a number of defensive stats that correlate to allowing TDs.

You can find all the TD data broken down into its respective sections below. Happy TD betting, all!

NFL Anytime TD Prop Analysis for Wild Card Weekend

We’re going to cover the most likely players to score a touchdown this weekend, the players who scored the most touchdowns this season, players who are riding TD streaks, and the defenses who allow plenty/few TDs.

Here’s a look at the anytime touchdown odds for some of the league’s premier scoring threats in their Wild Card matchups:

Most Probable TD Scorers in Wild Card Round

The player most likely to score a touchdown in Wild Card Weekend is James Cook, according to the betting odds. Cook is given a 60% chance of finding the endzone based off his -150 odds at DraftKings.

You’ll likely notice there are some teams without representation in the table. I only included players who had around a 50% or greater probability of scoring a TD. But the Bear most likely to score a touchdown is D’Andre Swift (+160), the Panther is Rico Dowdle (+160), Charger is Omarion Hampton (+160), and Steeler is Kenneth Gainwell (+210).

Check out the best lines for all players on our NFL anytime TD odds page.

NFL Touchdown Leaders Among Playoff Teams

I have only included players who are participating in the NFL Playoffs in the table above. Christian McCaffrey leads all players who have a game this weekend with 17 total touchdowns this season. It’s worth noting the Rams have two of the top five players in Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.

While total touchdowns are nice to look at, I also always be sure to check for consistency and look at the players who have scored a TD in the most games. Here’s that list:

1. Christian McCaffrey – 12 games with TD (70.6% of games played)
2. Josh Jacobs – 10 games with TD (66.7%)
3. Kyren Williams – 10 games with TD (58.8%)
4. Davante Adams – 9 games with TD (64.3%)
5. Puka Nacua – 9 games with TD (56.3%)
6. James Cook – 9 games with TD (52.9%)
7. Travis Etienne Jr – 9 games with TD (52.9%)
8. Dallas Goedert – 8 games with TD (53.5%)
9. Jauan Jennings – 8 games with TD (53.3%)
10. D’Andre Swift – 8 games with TD (50%)
11. Saquon Barkley – 8 games with TD (50%)
12. Josh Allen – 8 games with TD (47.1%)
13. Quentin Johnston – 7 games with TD (50%)

The most reliable TD scorer this season has been Christian McCaffrey, who has at least one touchdown in 12 of 17 games.

The next highest percentage belongs to Josh Jacobs, who scored a TD in 10 of 15 games in the regular season. It’s also worth noting that while Davante Adams scored a TD in 9 games, he only played in 14, giving him a TD in 64.3% of his games, the best among receivers playing this weekend.

Players to Score a TD Against Their Wild Card Opponent This Season

There are only two games in NFL Wild Card Weekend that are rematches of regular season games: Rams vs Panthers and Packers vs Bears (happened twice). Here are the players who scored TDs in the regular season games:

Rams vs Panthers Week 13 TD Scorers:

• Davante Adams (Rams) x2
• Blake Corum (Rams)
• Kyren Williams (Rams)
• Chuba Hubbard (Panthers)
• Mike Jackson (Panthers – defensive TD)
• Jalen Coker (Panthers)
• Tet McMillan (Panthers)

Packers vs Bears Week 14 TD Scorers:

• Christian Watson (Packers) x2
• Bo Melton (Packers)
• Josh Jacobs (Packers)
• Olamide Zaccheaus (Bears)
• Colston Loveland (Bears)

Bears vs Packers Week 16 TD Scorers:

• Romeo Doubs (Packers)
• Jahdae Walker (Bears)
• DJ Moore (Bears)

It’s worth noting that no player scored a TD in both of the games between the Packers and Bears this season.

Notable Active Touchdown Streaks

These are all the players currently riding a touchdown streak of at least three games heading into Wild Card Weekend:

• Puka Nacua: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games
• Dallas Goedert: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games
• Rhamondre Stevenson: has a touchdown in each of his last 3 games

Christian McCaffrey was riding a six-game TD streak heading into Week 18, but he saw that snapped as the 49ers failed to find the endzone at all against the Seahawks to close the regular season. Jauan Jennings was also notably riding a five-game TD streak, but also saw his snapped in Week 18.

Points Against Rankings for NFL Playoff Defenses

Rank	Team	PPG	League Rank	TD/G	TD/G Rank	Pass TD	Pass Rank	Rush TD	Rush Rank	Total TD
1	Houston Texans	17.4	2 of 32	1.94	6 of 32	20	7T of 32	13	T8 of 32	33
2	New England Patriots	18.8	4 of 32	2.12	9 of 32	25	14T of 32	11	4 of 32	36
3	Philadelphia Eagles	19.1	5 of 32	2.00	T7 of 32	14	1 of 32	20	25T of 32	34
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	19.8	8 of 32	2.24	11 of 32	25	14 of 32	13	T8 of 32	38
5	Los Angeles Chargers	20.0	9 of 32	1.88	4 of 32	16	3 of 32	16	16 of 32	32
6	Los Angeles Rams	20.4	10 of 32	2.00	T7 of 32	26	19 of 32	8	1 of 32	34
7	Green Bay Packers	21.2	11 of 32	2.29	12 of 32	24	12 of 32	15	T14 of 32	39
8	Buffalo Bills	21.5	12 of 32	2.53	20 of 32	19	6 of 32	24	31 of 32	43
9	San Francisco 49ers	21.8	13 of 32	2.47	19 of 32	29	21 of 32	13	8 of 32	42
10	Carolina Panthers	22.4	15 of 32	2.35	T15 of 32	20	7 of 32	20	25 of 32	40
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	22.8	17 of 32	2.35	T15 of 32	30	23 of 32	10	3 of 32	40
12	Chicago Bears	24.4	23 of 32	2.76	24 of 32	32	28 of 32	15	T14 of 32	47

Among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, the Texans have allowed the fewest points at just 17.4 per game. This was second-best in the NFL this season. However, it is the Chargers who have allowed the fewest touchdowns, only surrendering 1.88 TDs per game – teams kicked a fair number of field goals against them. This is why we see Steelers (vs Texans) and Patriots (vs Chargers) players getting longer odds to score a TD this weekend than what we have come to expect most weeks.

The Bears have allowed the most points among Wild Card teams, giving up 24.4 points per game this season. They have also allowed the most touchdowns with 2.76 per game. This makes Josh Jacobs‘ -135 odds to score a touchdown seem a little long.

The Eagles finished the regular season allowing the fewest passing touchdowns with only 14 TDs scored against them through the air – take note when considering betting George Kittle and/or Jauan Jennings to score a TD. Once again, the Bears allowed the most passing touchdowns with 32. So, Christian Watson is also worth a look for Green Bay.

Very few teams found the endzone on the ground against the Rams, as they allowed just eight rushing touchdowns this season, the fewest in the NFL. This is good to know for anyone who was looking at Rico Dowdle or Chuba Hubbard anytime TD odds. The Bills allowed the most rushing touchdowns among playoff teams, giving up 24 TDs on the ground. Travis Etienne Jr‘s -140 odds seem a little long after reading that.

Red Zone Defense Stats

Here are how the teams playing this weekend rank when it comes to red zone touchdown percentage allowed (#1 being the best and #12 the worst):

1. LA Rams: 46.2%
2. LA Chargers: 46.9%
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: 50.9%
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 53.1%
5. San Francisco 49ers: 53.8%
6. Carolina Panthers: 55.2%
7. Chicago Bears: 56.1%
8. Houston Texans: 56.8%
9. Buffalo Bills: 59.6%
10. Jacksonville Jaguars: 59.6%
11. Green Bay Packers: 59.6%
12. New England Patriots: 67.5%

The Rams really tighten up when their back is against the wall, as they only allow a touchdown on 46.2% of their opponents’ red zone drives. This is the third-best in the NFL, and best among teams playing in the Wild Card Round.

It’s notable that the Texans, who allow the fewest points among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, surrender a touchdown on 56.8% of their opponents’ red zone drives. This ranked 16th in the NFL. So, teams obviously aren’t getting down to the red zone often against them, but when they do, they find the endzone more often than not.

The Patriots are in the same boat, as they allow the second-fewest points among teams playing this weekend. However, teams score a TD on 67.5% of their red zone drives against New England. This was the third-worst rate in the league this season.

Players Approaching Touchdown Franchise Milestones

If you want to bet based on stories/narratives (I do not, to be clear), here are a handful of players approaching franchise milestones:

• Christian McCaffrey (SF): The 49ers’ dynamic running back is just two rushing touchdowns away from tying Steve Young for the most in franchise playoff history (8).
• Jalen Hurts (PHI): A true dual-threat, Hurts needs just one rushing touchdown to tie NFL legends Marcus Allen and LeGarrette Blount for 7th on the all-time playoff list. He is also one passing touchdown shy of tying Nick Foles for second in Eagles playoff history.
• Josh Allen (BUF): Allen is a touchdown machine. He is one rushing touchdown away from taking sole possession of 2nd place on the Bills’ all-time playoff list.
• Keenan Allen (LAC): The veteran receiver can make history for the Chargers, needing only one receiving touchdown to tie Charlie Joiner and Kellen Winslow for the most in the franchise’s playoff history (4).
• Dalton Schultz (HOU): In Houston, Schultz is just one receiving touchdown away from tying Nico Collins for the top spot on the Texans’ all-time playoff receiving touchdowns list.

The post Analyzing NFL Anytime TD Prop Data for Wild Card Weekend: Consistent Scorers, TD Streaks & More appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

This Wild Card slate includes some of the league’s best offensive players, including Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Puka Nacua, and Nico Collins, among others. But before you just blindly start betting their overs, it’s important to know the caliber of defense they’re playing, some of their recent trends, and to assess their over/unders properly.

The purpose of this article is not for me to give you my favorite NFL player props for the weekend. Instead, I am going to give you all the data needed to help make your own decisions. This is a comprehensive NFL Wild Card player prop guide!

NFL Wild Card Passing Props & Playoff Matchup Analysis

Let’s start this section by highlighting the passing yard props for each quarterback:

NFL Passing Props for Wild Card Weekend

Matthew Stafford enters the Wild Card round with the most optimistic over/under, carrying a passing yard line of 263.5 yards against the Carolina Panthers. On the other end of the spectrum is Bryce Young, whose over/under for passing yards is just 193.5.

Some of these lines could see significant movement with some uncertain expectations on what weather will be like in a couple games – namely the Rams vs Panthers matchup. Be sure to check our NFL passing yards props tool for all the current lines available – it will also do the line shopping for you!

Now let’s jump into what these QBs typically average.

QB Passing Yard Averages

Stafford led the NFL in passing yards this season, averaging 276.9 yards through the air per game. Among the QBs playing this weekend, Bryce Young averaged the fewest passing yards per game this season with just 188.2 per game. This lines up with the passing yard over/unders from above.

The player with the biggest difference between their season average and their prop line for Wild Card Weekend is Caleb Williams, whose over/under is set 24.4 yards lower than his season average.

Josh Allen’s over/under is set 14.7 yards higher than his season average, which is the biggest difference among players whose prop is higher than their average.

Passing Prop Player Trends

• Josh Allen has exceeded 230.5 passing yards in 3 straight games against Jacksonville, averaging 295.3 yards in those matchups
• Trevor Lawrence has exceeded 236.5 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games at EverBank Stadium, averaging 256.0 yards at home
• Aaron Rodgers has exceeded 202.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 247.2 yards over that span
• Justin Herbert has exceeded 221.5 passing yards in 6 of his last 9 road games, averaging 241.9 yards away from home
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 228.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 road contests, averaging 239.2 yards on the road
• Bryce Young has failed to exceed 192.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging just 168.5 yards

Sign up at theScore Bet now, formerly known as ESPN Bet, to tail any of these trends!

Pass Defense Rankings for 2025 Playoff Teams

The Bills finished the NFL season allowing the fewest gross passing yards per game at just 170.2 per game. However, it should be noted this is aided by the fact that the Bills faced the second-fewest pass attempts this season, thanks to their run defense being awful – they allowed the third-most yards per rushing attempt.

This is likely why we see Trevor Lawrence’s passing over/under basically equal to his season average.

The Steelers are the worst pass defense playing in Wild Card Weekend, as they allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the league this season. This is why we’re seeing Stroud’s passing prop line about 13.3 yards higher than his season average.

Rushing Prop Analysis for NFL Wild Card Weekend

As we did above, let’s start with the over/unders for rushing yards for all notable running backs in Wild Card Weekend:

NFL Rushing Props for Wild Card Round

The running back with the highest over/under for rushing yards in Wild Card Weekend is Saquon Barkley at 81.5. James Cook comes in as a close second with a line of 79.5. The lead back with the lowest over/under is Omarion Hampton, whose line is just 45.5. Rico Dowdle’s over/under is just one yard higher.

These lines were accurate as of Friday night, though. But you can get all the current lines on our NFL rushing yards props page, where you can also compare the over/unders and odds across multiple sportsbooks.

RB Rushing Yard Averages This Season

James Cook led the NFL in rushing yards this season, and averaged 95.4 yards on the ground per game. He has the highest per-game average among starting RBs in the playoffs. The starting RB playing this weekend with the lowest rushing yards per game is Woody Marks at just 43.9. Though, this is a little deceiving, as Marks was a backup to start the season.

Rico Dowdle’s rushing yards over/under is 16.8 yards lower than his season average, which is the biggest difference among lead backs this weekend. James Cook is a close second at 15.9 yards lower than his season average. Josh Jacobs’ line is also notable for being 13.6 yards above his season average, the biggest discrepancy in that direction.

Notable Rushing Prop Player Trends

The most intriguing values often emerge in secondary rushing props or with mobile quarterbacks whose lines may not fully reflect their scrambling potential in playoff pressure situations. Here are some quick-hitting trends to know!

• Chuba Hubbard has exceeded 25.5 rushing yards in 11 of his last 12 home games as an underdog, averaging 77.0 yards per game
  • Should be noted that Hubbard played most of these games as Carolina’s lead back, which he is not right now.
• Nick Chubb has exceeded 13.5 rushing yards in 10 straight games and in 8 consecutive matchups against Pittsburgh, averaging 69.5 yards per game
  • Should be noted that he’s in a much different role now than he was when playing the Steelers as a Brown.
• Saquon Barkley has failed to exceed 79.5 rushing yards in 10 of his last 14 games, averaging 70.9 yards per game
• Josh Jacobs has failed to exceed 74.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 7 games as a favorite, averaging 46.9 yards
• Travis Etienne Jr. has failed to exceed 64.5 rushing yards in 6 of his last 8 home games, averaging 48.4 yards
• Caleb Williams has exceeded 21.5 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, averaging 24.5 yards
• Bryce Young has exceeded 18.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 23.6 yards
• C.J. Stroud has exceeded 11.5 rushing yards in 4 straight games when favored by fewer than 7 points, averaging 24.8 yards

You can tail any of these rushing props at bet365 after signing up with our great welcome bonus.

Run Defense Rankings for 2025 Playoff Teams

No team allowed fewer rushing yards this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars this season at just 85.6 per game. They also allow the fewest yards per rushing attempt among teams playing in the Wild Card Round, and ranked fifth in the NFL at just 3.94. This explains why James Cook’s line is so much lower than his season average.

The worst run defense in the playoffs is the Bills. Buffalo allowed 136.2 rushing yards per game and a horrific 5.14 yards per carry. This makes it a little odd to see Travis Etienne’s rushing over/under a little bit lower than his season average.

The Bears aren’t much better than the Bills, as they only allowed 1.7 fewer rushing yards per game and 0.14 fewer yards per carry. This is why Josh Jacobs’ line is inflated from his season average.

Analyzing NFL Wild Card Receiving Props: Identifying Prime Matchups

Here are the receiving yard props for the top receivers playing in Wild Card Weekend:

NFL Receiving Props for Wild Card Weekend

Puka Nacua commands (by far) the highest receiving prop at 90.5 yards against Carolina. His over/under is 23 yards higher than any other receiver playing this weekend. It’s worth noting no Chargers receiver has a line higher than 41.5, which is Ladd McConkey’s over/under.

Some of these lines may be stale by the time you read this, though, and I have only included some of the receivers playing this weekend. Get all the current lines on our NFL receiving yards props page, where you can view all the lines in descending order, filter by matchup, and search for any player.

WR/TE Receiving Yards Averages This Season

Puka Nacua finished second in the NFL in receiving yards this season, and averages more receiving yards per game than any other player participating in Wild Card Weekend – JSN is on bye. However, his receiving yards prop is 15.7 yards lower than his season average.

Notable Receiving Prop Trends

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has exceeded 12.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games as an underdog by fewer than 7 points, averaging 63.0 yards
• Quentin Johnston has exceeded 35.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, averaging 59.8 yards
• DJ Moore has exceeded 25.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 home games, averaging 60.2 yards
• Jauan Jennings has exceeded 44.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games as an underdog, averaging 49.9 yards
• Hunter Henry has exceeded 44.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 home games, averaging 48.6 yards
• Dalton Schultz has exceeded 41.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games when favored by fewer than 7 points, averaging 53.0 yards
• Kenneth Gainwell has exceeded 32.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 50.0 yards
• Will Dissly has exceeded 6.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 games as an underdog, averaging 19.3 yards
• DeVonta Smith has failed to exceed 54.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 games as a favorite, averaging 44.0 yards
• DK Metcalf has failed to exceed 55.5 receiving yards in 7 straight primetime games, averaging 44.7 yards
• Puka Nacua has failed to exceed 91.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 road games as a favorite, averaging 78.2 yards

bet365 is always the best sportsbook for betting receiving props, as they only charge -110 odds per side, taking less vig than all other major sports betting apps. If you’re not already betting with them, sign up at bet365 now to tail any of these trends!

If you want to see how each defense fares against the pass, scroll back up to the passing section of the article.

The post NFL Wild Card Player Prop Analysis: Deep Dive into Key Stats & Player O/Us for Every Playoff Matchup appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I will be the first to say there is no statistic, trend, or evidence you can find that will lead to a 100% win rate with any NFL picks. Even trends that do have a perfect win rate right now could lose. That’s the beauty of sports – anything can happen, especially the unexpected! However, these NFL trends are simply meant to provide you with how these teams have performed against the spread in the past when put in similar situations.

These trends can then be used to help put the biases aside and pinpoint areas where sportsbooks, or the public, are allowing recent results or fandom get in the way of how these lines should be set.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

The Rams are 4-2 (.667) against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more over their last 6 games

This trend cuts against conventional wisdom about large road spreads, but the data speaks clearly. When Los Angeles is heavily favored, they tend to cover the big spread. The massive -10.5 point spread against the Panthers might seem intimidating, especially after they lost to Carolina in Week 13 in this same scenario, but it aligns perfectly with the Rams’ pattern of overwhelming inferior opponents.

Rams ATS Results as 7+ Point Favorites

Carolina’s offensive struggles are well-documented, with overs hitting in just 1 of their last 4 home games. Their inability to generate consistent scoring drives, ranking 27th in points scored and 27th in total yards, creates perfect conditions for blowout losses. In fact, six of Carolina’s nine losses have come by double digits.

Based on the past results, if you do believe the Rams get revenge for their Week 13 loss, where Matthew Stafford turned the ball over three times in one of his worst games of the season, then you might as well bet them to cover. But if you don’t think they’ll cover, a bet on the Panthers moneyline might be worth it – both of LA’s ATS losses in this situation were also straight up losses.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

The Packers are 13-3-1 (.765) when favored by fewer than 7 points over their last 17 games

This trend represents mathematical gold for the analytical bettor. When oddsmakers expect a competitive game from Green Bay, the franchise consistently delivers results that exceed market expectations. Currently installed as slim -1 to -1.5 point road favorites (at the time of writing), depending which sportsbook you check, the Packers find themselves in their wheelhouse.

Packers Games Favored <7 Points ATS Results

The 13-3-1 record is just simply looking at straight up results, which would correlate to a moneyline bet. The only concern I have with this trend is that two of the three losses have come in the last two games they have played in this scenario. But to be fair, Jordan Love left their game against Baltimore, thrusting Malik Willis in with no meaningful prep.

One of the many factors that has led to this success for the Packers is their ability to convert on third down. Green Bay has the second-best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, moving the chains on 48.8% of the third downs they face.

While this is one of the stronger trends in this list – due to the high winning percentage in a rather large sample size – I do want to mention the Packers have seemed to be trending in the wrong direction since Micah Parsons went down to injury. So, be careful going with this one, as there are a lot of added variables at play.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The over has hit in 15 of the Jaguars’ last 18 games after a win

I ran with this one last week as well, and it came through. So, why move away from something that’s working, right? Jacksonville consistently participates in high-scoring games following a win.

The Jags are coming off another win against the Titans in Week 18, where they managed to score 41 points, only needing seven points from the Titans to cash the over.

Jaguars Results After a Win

The total for the Jaguars’ Wild Card matchup with the Bills is set at 51.5, by far the biggest total of the week. But the data suggests it’s not high enough. In games following a win, Jacksonville and their opponent average 51.8 points per game.

The Bills are a good opponent to help out with this over, as they are tied for 4th in the NFL in points scored at 28.3, which is just 0.4 points per game more than the Jaguars average, and they also allow a decent amount of points too. While they rank 12th in points allowed, they have been helped by two games against the Jets, one against the Panthers, and a bad weather game against the Eagles.

Not to mention, Buffalo has only played two games against teams who finished in the top ten in scoring (both against the Patriots). If we just look at games played against teams who finished in the top 14 in scoring, the Bills allowed an average of 30.2 points per game.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 3-5 straight up in their last 8 games where favored by 3+

Simply put, the Eagles have disappointed as favorites recently. While I do appreciate their Week 18 game against the Commanders was played with backups, it should also be noted that Washington started Josh Johnson at QB.

What gets even more concerning is when you consider the quality of opponent it has taken for the Eagles to get a win when seen as a favorite recently.

Eagles Results in Last 6 Games When 3+ Point Favorites

Date	Opponent	Spread	Score	Result	Margin	ATS
10/05/2025	vs Denver	-3.5	L 17-21	Loss	-4	Failed
10/09/2025	at NY Giants	-7.5	L 17-34	Loss	-17	Failed
10/26/2025	vs NY Giants	-7	W 38-20	Win	+18	Covered
11/23/2025	at Dallas	-3	L 21-24	Loss	-3	Failed
11/28/2025	vs Chicago	-7	L 15-24	Loss	-9	Failed
12/14/2025	vs Las Vegas	-12.5	W 31-0	Win	+31	Covered
12/20/2025	at Washington	-7	W 29-18	Win	+11	Covered
01/04/2026	vs Washington	-3	L 17-24	Loss	-7	Failed

The wins came over the Giants, who finished 4-13, Raiders (3-14), and Commanders (5-12). But they even gave the Giants and Commanders one of their respective wins.

The 49ers, who are expecting Trent Williams back in the lineup, are a very good team – far superior to most teams in the list above. Not only is taking the 5.5 points with the Niners awfully enticing, but the +205 (at the time of writing) moneyline odds are also presenting serious value.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) against the spread at home as favorites over their last 6 games

Gillette Stadium transforms the Patriots into a covering machine when they’re laying points. They have covered the spread in 83.3% of their last six home games as a favorite. If we extend this to the full season, the record falls to 5-2, as they lost to the Raiders at home in Week 1 as favorites.

Patriots ATS Results in Last 6 Games Where Favored

Date	Opponent	Spread	Score	Result	Margin	ATS
01/04/2026	vs Miami	-14.5	W 38-10	Win	+28	Covered
12/01/2025	vs NY Giants	-7	W 33-15	Win	+18	Covered
11/13/2025	vs NY Jets	-12.5	W 27-14	Win	+13	Covered
11/02/2025	vs Atlanta	-5.5	W 24-23	Win	+1	Failed
10/26/2025	vs Cleveland	-7	W 32-13	Win	+19	Covered
09/28/2025	vs Carolina	-5.5	W 42-13	Win	+29	Covered

It is fair to question the quality of New England’s competition over their last six home games when favored, but the Chargers have some clear weaknesses to be exposed right now, namely their inability to protect Justin Herbert without their two starting offensive tackles. LA has allowed 3.5 sacks per game, which is tied for second-most in the NFL.

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 1-5 against playoff teams this season

The Steelers getting into the playoffs after their Week 17 loss to the Browns was a bit of a surprise – the Ravens were clear favorites in their Week 18 matchup, and had an opportunity to win the game with a FG in the dying seconds. While Pittsburgh put forth a 10-7 record, they did not fare well against other teams who made the NFL playoffs.

Steelers Results vs Other Playoff Teams

Week	Opponent	Opp Record	Result	Score	Spread	ATS Result
2	vs SEA	14-3	L	17-31	-3.5	Loss
3	@ NE	14-3	W	21-14	-1.5	Cover
8	vs GB	9-7-1	L	25-35	+2.5	Loss
10	@ LAC	11-6	L	10-25	+3.0	Loss
12	@ CHI	11-6	L	28-31	+3.0	Push
13	vs BUF	12-5	L	7-26	+3.0	Loss

The only playoff team they beat this season was the Patriots back in Week 3, who also face similar accusations of playing a light schedule. Not only did Pittsburgh lose to the other five playoff teams they played in the regular season, but they lost by double digits in four of them.

There are some legitimate questions around whether Pittsburgh belongs alongside most of the others in the playoff field, and they will face an incredibly tough test right away when they host the Texans.

The post The Most Notable NFL Trend for Each Wild Card Matchup to Help Make Your Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

However, there are some really strong trends supporting NFL player props from the meaningful games, including Mike Evans, CJ Stroud, and Christian McCaffrey, among others. These trends represent the strongest statistical foundations for player prop bets in the season finale.

1) Mike Evans Is a Panthers Tormentor

Mike Evans has gone over 4.5 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games against Carolina (7.0 receptions/game average).

Though Mike Evans has not had the best season so far, averaging just four receptions and 47.7 receiving yards per game with only three touchdowns, he has been very good against the Panthers.

Mike Evans Stats vs Panthers

Evans is averaging seven receptions per game in his last eight against the Panthers. He has also been better since returning from injury. He has gone over 4.5 receptions in two of three games since returning, and saw a target share of more than 34% in those games. At 4.5 receptions with plus-money odds on the over, Evans presents great value in the first game of Week 18.

Best odds (at the time of writing) to tail Evans: Over 4.5 receptions (+135) at bet365

2) Christian McCaffrey: Go-To Receiver vs Elite Competition

Christian McCaffrey has exceeded 5.5 receptions in 8 of his last 9 games against opponents with winning records (7.0 receptions/game average).

McCaffrey has posted fantastic receiving numbers this season, and they have been especially good when facing teams with winning records. McCaffrey averages seven receptions per game this season when playing teams who have winning records at the time of their game.

CMC’s over/under for receptions sits at 5.5 in Week 18, as he prepares to take on the Seahawks – a team with a winning record.

The sportsbook with the best odds to bet McCaffrey to go over 5.5 receptions is DraftKings, where you’ll get -111 odds.

3) CJ Stroud Is a Colt Killer

C.J. Stroud has gone over 207.5 passing yards in 5 straight games against Indianapolis (288.6 passing yards/game average).

Some quarterbacks simply have certain defenses figured out, and Stroud’s mastery over the Colts represents one of the week’s most reliable passing trends. Across five career matchups, the Texans’ signal-caller hasn’t just posted good passing numbers – he has posted great numbers.

Stroud is averaging 288.6 passing yards per game in his five starts against the Colts, and threw for 276 yards against them earlier this season. Stroud’s passing line sits as low as 207.5, which he has cleared in all five games against the Colts. His lowest passing total is 234 against Indianapolis.

You can get +121 odds on Stroud to throw for 220+ at DraftKings.

4) Travis Etienne’s Tennessee Struggles

Travis Etienne has never rushed for 60+ yards vs the Titans (36.4 average per game).

Etienne is averaging a career-high 67.2 rushing yards per game this season, but he still managed to struggle against the Titans, as he typically does.

Etienne Jr. Game Logs vs. Titans

The Jags’ RB is only averaging 36.4 rushing yards per game in seven games against the Titans, and has never rushed for more than 57 yards. This bodes well for under bettors, as Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set as high as 62.5.

You can get -111 odds on the under at DraftKings.

5) Courtland Sutton’s Mile High Mastery

Courtland Sutton has exceeded 54.5 receiving yards in 8 of his last 9 games at home (75.1 receiving yards/game average).

Home field advantage takes many forms, and Sutton’s consistency at Empower Field represents one of the season’s most reliable venue-specific trends. His 75.1 yards per game average at altitude significantly exceeds market expectations for his Week 18 matchup with the Chargers, where the Broncos are playing for the top seed in the AFC.

Courtland Sutton Last 9 Home Games

Set at 54.5 receiving yards, Courtland Sutton’s line appears very conservative. This is a mix of sportsbooks not appreciating his home splits, as well as believing Denver is going to run away with this game, evident by the 12.5-point spread.

Best odds to tail Sutton: Over 54.5 receiving yards (-110) at bet365

The post Don’t Bet NFL Player Props in Week 18 Without Knowing These Player Trends appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

For this reason, I recommend focusing on the games that mean something for at least one of the teams. This includes, among others, the NFC West clash between the Seahawks and 49ers, which will determine the winner of the NFC West and the #1 seed in the NFC, the Buccaneers vs Panthers game that will decide the winner of the NFC South, and the Steelers vs Ravens matchup to close out the week that will send one team to the playoffs and end the other’s season.

To navigate betting these high-pressure matchups effectively, I have identified data-driven NFL team trends that cut through the emotions and recency biases, pointing bettors toward genuine betting value. These aren’t casual observations – they’re statistically significant patterns that reveal which teams are primed to exceed expectations. See these NFL team trends below along with the best lines for betting them.

1) Tampa Bay’s Failures as a Favorite Create Underdog Opportunity

The Buccaneers have lost their last four games as favorites

This alarming trend reveals market overvaluation of Tampa Bay’s capabilities. Sportsbooks, and the public, have continued to see the Bucs as the team who won the NFC South each of the last three seasons with Baker Mayfield at the helm, and started the season 6-2. But they simply have not been that team over the second half.

Losing four straight games as a favorite is concerning enough, but it’s even worse when you consider Tampa Bay’s opponents in those games. Here’s a look at each game:

• Week 14: Lost 24-20 at home to the Saints as 7.5-point favorites
• Week 15: Lost 29-28 at home to the Falcons as 4.5-point favorites
• Week 16: Lost 23-20 to the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites
• Week 17: Lost 20-17 to the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites in Quinn Ewers second career start

Carolina has already beaten the Bucs once this season, and they have also shocked some good teams when expectations were low, including the Packers and Rams.

Current Moneyline (at time of writing): Tampa Bay Buccaneers -153 / Carolina Panthers +128

Tampa Bay has given us no reason to trust them to win any game right now, and the plus odds on Carolina presents significant value.

2) Seahawks Dominant on the Road, But Darnold Struggles in January

Sam Darnold is just 1-7 straight up in January games

While there are some strong trends pointing in favor of Seattle, such as the Seahawks being 7-1 against the spread on the road this season, Sam Darnold’s poor history in the month of January is tough to overlook.

Darnold is having another good season to this point, as was the case last year, but this is where he started his collapse with the Vikings last season. Ironically, Darnold is presented with basically the same Week 18 situation as last year as well: take on a tough division rival with the division and #1 seed on the line. As you may remember, Darnold played awful against the Lions in Week 18 last year, and then continued the struggles into Wild Card Weekend against the Rams.

But Darnold’s January struggles go further back than last season. Here are Sam Darnold’s game logs in January.

*Denotes a postseason game.

Darnold has only won one game in January, losing the other seven he has played. It’s also hard to give Darnold much credit for that one win, as he only completed five passes for 43 yards and two interceptions. Similar to last season, Darnold’s Week 18 opponent is too strong for his team to overcome a poor performance from their QB.

Current Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers +110

Getting plus money to bet on another Darnold collapse feels like a gift.

3) Jacksonville’s Post-Victory Explosions Signal Offensive Fireworks

The over has hit in 14 of the Jaguars’ last 17 games after a win

This powerful trend reveals Jacksonville’s tendency to build on success with offensive explosions. When the Jaguars enter a game with momentum, they don’t simply protect leads – they pour on points. Here’s what that has looked like this season:

Jacksonville averages 28.9 points per game following a win. On top of that, the Titans have been seemingly improving on offense, as they have scored at least 24 points in each of their last four games after not accomplishing the feat in any of their first ten games.

Sportsbook with Best Total for Betting Over: 47.5 at FanDuel

Against a Titans defense that is giving up the fifth-most points in the league, and Jacksonville needing the win to lock up the AFC South, we could see the Jags get close to this total on their own.

4) Indianapolis Struggles Continue Against Elite Competition

The Colts are 1-4 (20%) against the spread over their last five games

Indianapolis enters Week 18 in a concerning tailspin from a betting perspective. Their failure to cover spreads in four of five recent contests suggests consistent market overvaluation and/or underperformance. This trend becomes particularly troubling when facing a Texans squad boasting one of the best defenses in the league and riding the momentum of an eight-game winning streak.

The Colts will also be starting rookie Riley Leonard after Philip Rivers was unable to save their season after Daniel Jones went down to injury.

Current Spread: Houston Texans -10

With the Texans still having a chance to win the AFC South and avoid playing on the road in Wild Card Weekend, there is no shortage of motivation for them to come out strong.

5) New Orleans Road Underdog Woes Persist in Divisional Clash

The Saints are 2-10 (16.7%) on the road as underdogs over their last 12 games

The Saints have been bad this season, whether playing at home or on the road. However, the road has been much more difficult for New Orleans this season. Here are their home vs away splits:

Their struggles extend beyond just this season, though, as they have won just twice in their last 12 opportunities as a road underdog. The outlook is much worse when you isolate the games where they are a road underdog this season:

While the Saints have shown recent life, their historical struggles as road underdogs in hostile divisional environments create major concerns.

Current Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons -183 / New Orleans Saints +153

The moneyline pricing reflects market confidence in Atlanta, supported by New Orleans’ documented struggles in similar road underdog situations.

6) Broncos Win at Home, But Rarely Cover the Spread

The Broncos are 0-3 when favorites of 8+ points at home this season

While Denver is 7-1 straight up at Empower Field at Mile High, they have not covered the spread in many of those games. The Broncos are just 2-4 ATS as favorites at home, and an even worse 0-3 ATS when favored by 8+ points.

As you can see, Denver has largely underwhelmed when listed as heavy home favorites this season. Their offense has been a rollercoaster and that may not be any different this week.

Current Spread: Denver Broncos -12.5

The substantial spread reflects the Chargers being one of the many teams resting starters in Week 18. Trey Lance will start for Justin Herbert and many of LA’s other top players will not suit up. However, Denver’s knack for underperforming as heavy favorites makes all these points with the Chargers pretty intriguing, especially when you factor in LA being 2-0 as road dogs this season.

7) Steelers vs Ravens Typically Goes Under

Less than 40 points have been scored in 8 of the last 10 Steelers-Ravens matchups

This trend only includes regular season matchups, as their playoff matchup last season saw 42 total points. Here’s a look at the scores in the last ten matchups between these two teams: