Sascha Paruk Sports Betting Dime Author

PSG vs Arsenal Predictions, Early Picks & Odds for Champions League Final

Sascha Paruk — Thu, 07 May 2026 20:46:02 +0000

Arsenal and PSG will meet in the Champions League final in Budapest on May 30
Truest Arsenal’s tournament-best defense and backing under 2.5 goals
See my top PSG vs Arsenal picks and predictions, plus early line movement for the UCL final

The stage is set for European soccer’s ultimate prize. On Saturday, May 30, Arsenal clashes with Paris Saint-Germain at the Ferenc Puskas Stadium in Budapest at 3:00 pm ET. Entering as the betting underdog, Mikel Arteta’s squad has been unstoppable, posting a flawless 8-0-0 league-phase record. They bring an impenetrable defense to face a favored PSG side that has been inconsistent (4-2-2, 11th in the league phase) but boasts undeniable star power.

The Parisians will lean heavily on elite attacking talent like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and reigning Ballon d’Or-winner Ousmane Dembele. Arsenal’s dynamic forward line, anchored by Bukayo Saka and Viktor Gyokeres, looks primed to exploit transition vulnerabilities.

I will break down the sharpest early picks for the Champions League finale.

PSG vs Arsenal Odds

Prediction Markets

3-Way ML & O/U

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Kalshi

Over 2.5 Goals

55%

Under 2.5 Goals

51%

PSG to Win

47%

Arsenal to Win

40%

Full-Time Draw

24%

Predict

Odds as of 4:36 pm ET, May 7, at Kalshi Click “Predict” to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

Looking at the current betting lines, PSG enters as the slight favorite, trading at 47 cents (+113), while Arsenal sits as the underdog at 40 cents (+150). A 90-minute draw is trading at 24 cents (+317). in this nascent market.

A $10 bet on the moneyline for the favored PSG (+113) would net a $11.30 profit for a total payout of $21.30. Meanwhile, a $10 wager on the underdog Arsenal (+150) would yield a $15 profit, resulting in a total payout of $25 if the English side wins in 90 minutes.

The opening total was set at 2.5 goals and has held steady. The over is slightly favored at 54 cents (-117) compared to the under at 51 cents (-104).

Arsenal vs PSG Early Predictions & Best Bets

When breaking down this matchup, contrasting styles dictate where the betting value lies. I have identified three +EV wagers that correlate perfectly with my projected game script.

3-Way Moneyline Pick: Arsenal (+195)

At +195, Arsenal offers incredible moneyline value. While the handicap market provides a safety net, I am backing them to win in regulation. Across 16 matches, the French champions have leaked 22 goals (1.38 per match). Arsenal’s elite defensive structure means they rarely trail. Their direct, counter-attacking efficiency is built to dismantle top-heavy teams. Finding Arsenal at nearly 2-to-1 odds to win in 90 minutes against a leaky backline is a massive +EV opportunity.

Total Goals Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)

Throughout 14 Champions League matches this season, Arsenal has been a defensive juggernaut. They have conceded just six goals across the entire tournament. Averaging a microscopic 0.43 goals allowed per match against elite European competition strongly supports a low-scoring final. While PSG boasts massive offensive firepower, Arsenal’s backline is engineered to neutralize dynamic wingers. I expect a methodical, tightly contested tempo where defensive attrition reigns supreme.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Viktor Gyokeres (+187)

I bypassed consensus odds to find the best-available line for Viktor Gyokeres at bet365 (+187). PSG’s attacking style forces them to commit bodies forward, frequently leaving their center-backs exposed in transition. With five goals already in the competition, Gyokeres operates as the definitive focal point of Arteta’s attack. Crucially, he handles penalty duties. In a cup final where VAR and high-pressure challenges are prevalent, having a designated penalty taker at plus-money is an immediate edge.

Head-to-Head History & Matchup Stats

Statistic	PSG	Arsenal
All-Time Wins	2	2
Total Goals Scored	4	8
Average Possession	51.75%	48.25%
Average Total Shots	10.75	12.25
Average Shots on Target	4.75	6.75
Average Corner Kicks	2.5	3.75

These heavyweights have become highly familiar with each other on the European stage. Across their four historical meetings, the head-to-head record is deadlocked with two wins apiece and zero draws.

Even though PSG has historically controlled the tempo with a 51.75% average possession rate, Arsenal has proven far more efficient. The English side outpaces PSG in shot creation (12.25 to 10.75 per match) and averages two more shots on target per game (6.75 to 4.75). This direct efficiency is exactly why Arsenal has outscored the Parisian club 8-4 across their four encounters.

Isolating their three most-recent meetings (all since 2024) highlights a recurring tactical stalemate. The clubs traded razor-thin victories in a tense semi-final tie, and Arsenal previously secured a 2-0 victory in the group stage. Two of their three competitive meetings cashed the Under 2.5 goals.

Key Team Statistics Comparison

Metric (Per Game Averages)	Arsenal	PSG
League Phase Rank	1st	11th
Points Per Game	3.00 [1st]	1.75 [11th]
Goals Scored (League Phase)	2.88 [1st]	2.63 [T-4th]
Goals Conceded (All Matches)	0.43 [N/A]	1.38 [N/A]
Total Shots	13.00 [N/A]	16.88 [N/A]
Shots on Target	6.14 [N/A]	7.19 [N/A]
Corner Kicks	5.36 [N/A]	5.63 [N/A]
Yellow Cards	1.64 [N/A]	0.88 [N/A]

How do the two teams stack up against each other? PSG operates with relentless offensive volume, while Arsenal acts as an unyielding defensive wall.

The most glaring mismatch is defensive output. Arsenal has conceded just six goals across 14 matches (0.43 per game). Conversely, PSG has proven highly vulnerable, allowing 22 goals across 16 matches (1.38 per game).

PSG will try to overwhelm Arsenal with sheer volume, averaging 16.88 total shots and 7.19 on target per game. However, Arsenal’s perfect 3.00 points per game compared to PSG’s 1.75 shows that shot volume rarely breaks Arteta’s structure. Arsenal pairs the tournament’s most efficient offense (2.88 goals per game) with a historically stingy defense.

Crucial Injury Reports

Player	Team	Absence Start Date
Achraf Hakimi	PSG	April 30, 2026
Lucas Chevalier	PSG	April 30, 2026
Quentin Ndjantou	PSG	April 13, 2026
Jurrien Timber	Arsenal	April 23, 2026
Mikel Merino	Arsenal	April 8, 2026

Heading into the final, missing key rotational pieces or star starters can drastically alter the tactical landscape. The teams/players have three weeks to get ready but it’s worth looking at their current injury situations nonetheless.

The most glaring absence is PSG’s star right-back, Achraf Hakimi. Hakimi has been sidelined since late April, creating a massive void for the French champions. His overlapping runs and elite pace act as a secondary engine for their attacking front. Without his recovery speed, Arsenal’s left-sided attackers will find expansive room to operate on counter-attacks. Missing Lucas Chevalier and Quentin Ndjantou further chips away at PSG’s squad depth.

Arsenal will be without defender Jurrien Timber and midfielder Mikel Merino. Timber strips them of a versatile defensive piece, but yielding just 0.43 goals per match proves their starting block can withstand elite pressure. Losing Merino removes a combative midfield option, yet Arsenal has successfully navigated the knockout rounds without him. Their core structural integrity remains fully intact.

The post PSG vs Arsenal Predictions, Early Picks & Odds for Champions League Final appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Embiid Ruled Out – 76ers vs Knicks Spread Moves Multiple Points

Sascha Paruk — Wed, 06 May 2026 17:48:54 +0000

The New York Knicks are set to host the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals on May 6 at 7:00 pm ET. In a late-breaking development that has sent shockwaves through the betting market, the 76ers have officially ruled out superstar center Joel Embiid due to increased soreness in his right ankle and hip.

The Knicks, meanwhile, boast a pristine bill of health with zero players on the injury report. Embiid’s absence has triggered significant line movement across the market: at prediction site Kalshi, the spread has ballooned to NYK -10.5 (51 cents) / PHI +10.5 (+100), a dramatic shift from the opener of NYK -7.5 (-110) at traditional sportsbooks.

Updated 76ers vs Knicks Odds with Embiid Out

Prediction Markets

ATS Lines

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Kalshi

New York -10.5

51%

Philadelphia +10.5

50%

Predict

A comprehensive breakdown of the injury report, Embiid’s absence, and its cascading implications on tonight’s betting markets follows below.

Philadelphia 76ers Injury Report

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Latest Update/Comment
Joel Embiid	C-F	Right Ankle Sprain / Hip Soreness	OUT	Embiid has been ruled out for Monday’s (May 6) Game 2 against the Knicks due to increased soreness in his ankle and hip.

The Philadelphia 76ers have been dealt a devastating blow ahead of Game 2: Joel Embiid has officially been ruled out due to increased soreness in his right ankle and hip.

The announcement, which came just hours before tip-off, represents the culmination of a cascading series of ailments for the 7-footer: he missed the first four playoff games while recovering from an emergency appendectomy, returned for the heroic Game 7 win over Boston, played through a right hip contusion in Game 1, and has now been shut down entirely with the ankle flaring up after absorbing a hard shot to the midsection from Mikal Bridges in the series opener.

When on the floor, Embiid is the undisputed focal point of the 76ers’ offensive attack. Through five postseason games, he is averaging team-highs in points (25.2 PPG) and rebounds (8.0 RPG), while also distributing 5.8 assists per game. His staggering 34.4% usage rate underscores his massive importance to Philadelphia’s offense, though a 42.4% field goal percentage indicates he has had to work exceptionally hard for his production against tight postseason defenses. His loss tonight is immeasurable – both offensively and defensively, where the Knicks attacked his slower mobility via high ball screens in Game 1’s 137-98 blowout.

With Embiid sidelined, the 76ers will be forced to lean heavily on their frontcourt depth. Veteran Andre Drummond and rookie Adem Bona slot in directly behind Embiid on the depth chart. Drummond brings a reliable rebounding presence, pulling down 4.2 boards in just 14.5 minutes per game while shooting an efficient 75.0% from the floor. Bona has seen 9.7 minutes per contest during the postseason, contributing 2.4 points and 1.7 rebounds – though he fouled out quickly in Game 1.

Neither reserve can come close to replicating Embiid’s dominant two-way impact or offensive gravity, and head coach Nick Nurse – who is coaching through immense personal grief after attending his brother Steve’s funeral just yesterday – faces the unenviable task of constructing a game plan without his franchise centerpiece.

New York Knicks Injury Report

The New York Knicks currently have a clean bill of health, with no players listed on the active injury report for Game 2.

The New York Knicks enter tonight’s contest in an enviable position for a postseason contender: they boast an entirely empty injury report. With zero players currently sidelined, head coach Mike Brown has the luxury of utilizing his complete rotation and optimal depth chart against Philadelphia. In the grueling environment of playoff basketball, this flawless health profile provides a significant structural and competitive edge.

Because the roster is fully intact, the Knicks can lean completely on their primary offensive engine, Jalen Brunson, who is pacing the team with 27.6 points and 5.7 assists per game. Their formidable frontcourt remains uncompromised as well, ensuring that the highly productive pairing of OG Anunoby (21.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Karl-Anthony Towns (18.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG) can operate without restriction. This allows New York to maintain its dynamic scoring and robust rebounding without needing to scramble its lineups or stretch its role players beyond their usual capacities.

Furthermore, having all hands on deck means the Knicks’ second unit can stick to their designated assignments. Key rotation pieces like Josh Hart – who brings crucial rebounding with 9.0 boards per game – and Miles McBride will not be forced into exhausting, extended minutes to cover for absent starters. Ultimately, New York’s perfect health allows them to execute their game plan at peak efficiency on their home floor.

The post Embiid Ruled Out – 76ers vs Knicks Spread Moves Multiple Points appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction, Picks, Odds & Injuries (May 6)

Sascha Paruk — Wed, 06 May 2026 13:53:31 +0000

I am backing the Over 4.5 goals (+138) due to relentless shot volumes
Jamal Musiala anytime goalscorer (+185) creates an excellent +EV angle
See my top Bayern Munich vs PSG predictions and picks on May 6

The UEFA Champions League semifinals conclude on Wednesday as Bayern Munich hosts PSG on at the Allianz Arena. Kickoff is set for 3:00 pm ET with Fubo TV and Paramount+ streaming the match.

Bayern enters as a heavy home favorite, looking to rebound from a one-goal aggregate deficit from last week’s wild 5-4 shootout. I expect the Germany to apply a full-court press early, leaning on Harry Kane to exploit the defense. Despite recent inconsistencies, PSG possesses elite transition speed through Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and is capable of punishing an aggressive home side on the fast break.

With a trip to the final on the line, handicapping this fixture requires navigating chaotic game scripts. I will break down the moneyline, totals, and player props to find the most lucrative +EV angles.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Odds

Prediction Markets

ML & O/U

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Kalshi

Bayern Munich to Win

61%

Under 4.5 Goals

60%

Over 4.5 Goals

42%

PSG to Win

23%

Full-Time Draw

18%

Predict

Bayern is as the clear home favorite, priced at 61¢ (-156) on the 3-way moneyline at Kalshi, while visiting PSG sits at 23¢ (+335). The draw is 18¢ (+456).

A $20 wager on Bayern yields a total payout of $32.80. Placing that same $20 on a PSG upset returns $87.00.

The goal total is at a massive 4.5 with the over only a modest 42¢ (+138) underdog. Bettors will have to pay a 60¢ (-150) premium to wager on under 4.5.

Odds as of 9:45 am ET, May 6, at Kalshi. Click “Predict” in the odds graphic, above, to claim SBD’s Kalshi promo code.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Picks, Predictions & Best Player Props

When evaluating this semifinal, situational trends reveal distinct betting value. Bayern has a perfect 4-0 record at home this season.

Total-Goals Pick: Over 4.5 (+138 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

BMU vs PSG O/U Pick

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Kalshi

Over 4.5 Goals

42%

Predict

Both clubs operate with immense shot volume. Bayern fires 17.46 total shots per game, while PSG shoots 17 flat. Defensively, PSG yields 1.4 goals per match. Combining these relentless offenses with suspect transition defenses points directly to another shootout. At +138, the over presents a clear +EV wager.

3-Way Moneyline Pick: Bayern Munich to Win (-156 at Kalshi)

Bayern’s attacking depth ultimately dictates this matchup. Harry Kane has netted 13 goals in 12 Champions League appearances. Supported by Michael Olise and Luis Diaz, Bayern easily outpaces PSG in scoring efficiency. Given Bayern’s flawless 100% win rate over their last eight home fixtures, laying -155 provides a distinct mathematical edge.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Jamal Musiala (+185 at BetMGM)

Line shopping is critical to identify value. While bet365 prices Musiala at a conservative +110, BetMGM hangs a mispriced +185 line. Finding this massive pricing discrepancy is the definition of +EV betting. Musiala operates efficiently in the final third, exploiting the exact defensive pockets PSG frequently vacates.

Bayern Munich vs PSG Head-to-Head History

Metric	Bayern	PSG
Match Wins	3	2
Total Goals Scored	10	9
Average Total Shots	14.0	13.0
Average Shots on Target	6.8	4.8

PSG captured a wild 5-4 victory in the first leg, but Bayern holds a 3-2 edge over their last five meetings. Neither team has recorded a draw in this span, operating strictly in a win-or-lose binary.

Bayern controls the tempo, testing the keeper with 6.8 shots on target compared to PSG’s 4.8. This efficiency mismatch in the attacking zone heavily supports backing the German side. Facing a deficit, I expect the hosts to leverage this shot-creating dominance to overwhelm the Parisian defense.

Champions League Team Stats

Statistic (Per Game Average)	Bayern	PSG
Points Per Game	2.63 [2nd]	1.75 [11th]
Goals Scored	2.75 [T-2nd]	2.63 [T-4th]
Goals Conceded	1.00 [T-5th]	1.38 [T-13th]
Total Shots	17.46 [1st]	17.00 [T-2nd]

The data highlights two elite offenses separated by defensive consistency. Both teams rank inside the top five for total shot creation, practically guaranteeing an offensive showcase.

The mismatch appears in goal suppression. Bayern ranks tied for fifth by conceding just 1.00 goal per game. Conversely, PSG’s leakier unit ranks 13th, allowing 1.38 goals. Bayern’s ability to pair a high-octane fast break with stouter defensive rebounding – figuratively speaking – justifies their short moneyline price.

PSG vs Bayern Injury Report for Second Leg

PSG is officially missing star full-back Achraf Hakimi. Losing a two-way cornerstone who provides vital recovery speed severely compromises their perimeter defense against Bayern’s elite wingers.

For Bayern, veteran Serge Gnabry remains out, while Raphael Guerreiro is doubtful. While losing Gnabry thins their rotation, Kane and Diaz ensure the offensive engine remains intact.

If Guerreiro sits out, it slightly reduces Bayern’s midfield depth, but their core rotational pieces remain healthy enough to secure the result.

The post Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction, Picks, Odds & Injuries (May 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Odds, Picks & Predictions (2nd Leg)

Sascha Paruk — Tue, 05 May 2026 13:25:53 +0000

Back the Arsenal moneyline at -163 as their elite defense will shut down a depleted Atletico squad
Viktor Gyokeres holds +145 anytime goalscorer value against a porous Atletico backline missing crucial defenders
See my top Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions for the second leg on May 5

JUMP TO: ODDS || PICKS || INJURIES

With a ticket to the UEFA Champions League final on the line, heavily-favored Arsenal squad hosts a battle-tested Atletico Madrid side on Tuesday, May 5, at 3:00 pm ET. The match will be televised on Fubo TV and Paramount+ from the Emirates Stadium in London. The teams played to a 1-1 draw in Madrid last week.

I am closely monitoring the injury report, as star Atletico forward Julian Alvarez is dealing with an ankle injury that could severely limit his impact. Can Diego Simeone’s squad overcome defensive struggles to pull off an upset, or will Arsenal’s elite attacking core secure the victory? I will break down the true market value, analyze the latest line movements, and identify actionable betting angles for this blockbuster showdown.

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Prediction Markets

Second Leg

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Kalshi

Arsenal ML

63%

Over 2.5 Goals

52%

Under 2.5 Goals

49%

90-Min Draw

23%

Atletico ML

18%

Predict

At prediction site Kalshi, Arsenal is priced at 62¢ to win to win in regulation, equal to -163 odds in traditional sports-betting terms. Atletico is trading at just 18¢ (+456) on the three-way moneyline. A 90-minute draw sits at 23¢ (+335).

The total goals is set at 2.5 O/U with the over slightly favored at 52¢ (-108). The under is currently trading at 49¢ (+104).

For bettors backing either side, a $10 wager on the Arsenal moneyline yields a modest $6.10 profit for a $16.10 total payout. That same $10 ticket on the underdog returns an impressive $55.60 total payout if the Spanish side springs the upset.

Looking at market movement, the opening total of 2.5 saw the over juiced at -120, which has since decreased, indicating action on the under.

Arsenal vs Atletico Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Arsenal ML (-163) at Kalshi
Under 2.5 Goals (+104) at Kalshi
Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer (+165) at DraftKings

I am targeting three highly correlated, +EV angles for this matchup. When looking at situational trends across Arsenal’s 13 Champions League matches this season, their defensive consistency stands out. Furthermore, the Gunners boast a flawless 100% win rate as home favorites this campaign.

My primary play is the Arsenal 3-way moneyline (-163). Arsenal has constructed an absolute defensive fortress, conceding just 0.46 goals per match. Atletico’s defense is unusually porous this season, leaking 1.80 goals per match. I expect the Gunners’ attack to systematically exploit gaps in the final third.

The Gunners dismantled Atletico in a resounding 4-0 victory on home soil earlier this campaign on October 21, 2025. Arsenal effectively stifled the Spanish club’s attack, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday.

I am also locking in under 2.5 goals (+104). Arsenal dictates possession and rarely lets matches devolve into track meets. Atletico relies heavily on a fast-paced transition attack, essentially functioning like a fast break in basketball. Arsenal’s tactical structure neutralizes these transition opportunities seamlessly.

For player props, line shopping reveals massive value on Viktor Gyokeres. While bet365 lists him at +120 and Caesars at +145, DraftKings has the Swede at +165 to score anytime. With Atletico missing critical defenders, Gyokeres is mathematically positioned to capitalize on his team’s 6.46 shots on target per match.

Putting all three of these bets into a same-game parlay at DraftKings yields a potential +850 payout.

Arsenal vs Atletico: Team Stats Comparison

Statistic (Per Game Avg)	Arsenal	Atletico
Points Per Game	3.00 [1]	1.63 [14]
Goals Scored	2.88 [1]	2.13 [14]
Goals Conceded	0.46 [1]	1.80 [14]
Total Shots	13.00 [1]	12.93 [14]
Shots on Target	6.46 [1]	5.47 [14]

Bracketed numbers indicate the team’s overall Champions League league-phase ranking.

The defensive gulf between Arsenal and Atletico is staggering. Arsenal ranked first overall in the UCL in goals allowed, suffocating opponents to the tune of 0.46 per game. Atletico finished 14th, surrendering a massive 1.80 goals per game.

While total shot volume is nearly identical, Arsenal’s efficiency is far superior, generating nearly one more shot on target per match.

Arsenal vs Atletico Injury Report

Player	Team	Status
Martin Odegaard	Arsenal	Probable
Kai Havertz	Arsenal	Doubtful
Mikel Merino	Arsenal	Missing
Jurrien Timber	Arsenal	Missing
Julian Alvarez	Atletico	Probable
Alexander Sorloth	Atletico	Doubtful
Jose Maria Gimenez	Atletico	Missing
Nicolas Gonzalez	Atletico	Missing
Pablo Barrios	Atletico	Missing

Late-season fixtures are wars of attrition. Both squads enter the Emirates Stadium dealing with significant injury concerns that heavily impact my handicap.

Losing veteran center-back Jose Maria Gimenez is a crushing blow for Diego Simeone’s already struggling backline. Without his physical presence, Arsenal attackers will face far less resistance, paving the way for Gyokeres to find the back of the net.

The biggest storyline is the status of Julian Alvarez. He is Atletico’s undisputed alpha, driving their transition offense. If he’s limited, Atletico’s forward depth is virtually non-existent, further cementing the immense value I see on the under 2.5 goals.

The post Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Odds, Picks & Predictions (2nd Leg) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Who’s Favored in AL Cy Young Odds After Skubal Injury?

Sascha Paruk — Mon, 04 May 2026 19:54:10 +0000

Two-time reigning AL Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal is scheduled to have elbow surgery
Skubal is now off the board in the AL Cy Young odds
Who’s the new AL Cy Young favorite?

On Monday afternoon, the Detroit Tigers announced that ace Tarik Skubal (), the two-time defending AL Cy Young-winner, will have minor elbow surgery. Expected to miss at least a couple months, the Skubal – who had been a sizable favorite in the AL Cy Young odds – was taken off the board at DraftKings.

Skubal’s price at prediction site Kalshi plummeted from 23¢ (equal to +335 odds) to just 2¢ (equal to +4900 odds).

Updated AL Cy Young Odds

Prediction Markets

Post-Skubal Injury Prices

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Kalshi

Cam Schlittler

32%

Max Fried

20%

Dylan Cease

16%

Jose Soriano

15%

Jacob Degrom

Gavin Williams

Bryan Woo

Garrett Crochet

Cole Ragans

Tarik Skubal

Predict

Prices as of 3:51 pm ET, May 4th, at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

With Skubal out of commission (and unlikely to compile enough innings to receive serious consideration), New York righty Cam Schlittler has become the new betting favorite. The 6’6 righty was trading at 18¢ earlier today (+456) and is now the 32¢ chalk (+213).

Following Schlittler is his Yankee teammate Max Fried at 23¢ (+335) and new Blue Jay Dylan Cease at 16¢ (+525).

The following table compares the top-seven favorites at Kalshi by their main pitching metrics, including all regular-season games up to May 3. The table is ordered by ERA.

Statistical Comparison of Top-Six AL Cy Young Favorites

Player (Team)	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	FIP	xFIP	Avg EV	Hard Hit%
José Soriano (LAA)	42.2	0.84	0.94	30.1%	9.8%	2.89	3.23	87.4 (71st%)	34.0% (81st%)
Cam Schlittler (NYY)	41.2	1.51	0.74	31.4%	3.8%	1.54	2.34	86.5 (83rd%)	38.6% (61st%)
Jacob deGrom (TEX)	31.1	2.01	0.96	32.5%	5.7%	2.92	2.80	91.5 (7th%)	40.8% (47th%)
Max Fried (NYY)	52.2	2.39	0.89	21.4%	7.5%	2.73	3.80	85.9 (90th%)	33.6% (84th%)
Gavin Williams (CLE)	43.1	2.70	1.02	31.0%	11.1%	3.89	3.36	90.8 (13th%)	45.7% (23rd%)
Dylan Cease (TOR)	38.1	3.05	1.33	33.7%	10.8%	2.13	2.35	86.9 (76th%)	36.4% (72nd%)
Bryan Woo (SEA)	41.0	4.61	1.07	17.5%	3.6%	4.22	4.62	89.9 (28th%)	48.1% (13th%)

Numbers in parentheses in the final two columns represent each pitcher’s percentile rank in the relevant categories.

Surging Angel ace Jose Soriano has the best ERA in the majors six weeks into the season. In his fourth season in the bigs, the 27-year-old righty saw his ERA “balloon” from 0.24 to 0.84 after allowing three runs on six hits over 5.0 IP against the White Sox last time out. Soriano’s peripherals project regression. His 3.23 xFIP is ab2.39 runs higher than his actual ERA, the biggest discrepancy among the seven players listed in the table.

Schlittler and Cease have the best FIP and xFIP.

When it comes to average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, Friend is by far the best. He’s the only pitcher in the table who ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in both categories.

The post Who’s Favored in AL Cy Young Odds After Skubal Injury? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Opening Pistons vs Cavaliers Odds, Schedule for Round 2

Sascha Paruk — Mon, 04 May 2026 02:19:52 +0000

The Pistons and Cavaliers will meet in a best-of-seven second-round series
Both teams survived Game 7s on Sunday
See the opening Pistons vs Cavaliers series odds, game spread, and schedule

The #1 Detroit Pistons (64-25 SU, 47-42 ATS, 41-47-1 O/U) and #4 Cleveland Cavaliers (56-33 SU, 36-53 ATS, 44-44 O/U) both survived first-round Game 7s on Sunday, setting up a best-of-seven second-round clash with a spot in the Eastern Conference final on the line.

The Pistons have home-court advantage and are priced as modest favorites to advance. The winner of Cavs/Pistons will face the winner of Knicks/76ers in the East final.

Pistons vs Cavaliers Series Odds

Market	DET Pistons	CLE Cavaliers
Series Moneyline	-120	+100
Game Spread	+1.5 (-200)	-1.5 (+165)
Total Games	O 5.5 (-130)	U 5.5 (+105)

Odds as of May 3rd at DraftKings.

The series price for Pistons/Cavaliers has opened with Detroit as a -120 favorite and Cleveland as a very slight +100 underdog.

The total-games market favors over 5.5 at -130 with under 5.5 priced at +105.

The Cavs and Pistons split their four regular-season games, with each team going 1-1 on its home court.

At prediction site Kalshi, Detroit is trading at 28¢ to win the East, equal to +257 odds in traditional sports-betting parlance. Cleveland is trading at 21¢ (+376) at to reach its first NBA Finals in the post-LeBron era.

Prediction Markets

East Conf. Champ 2026

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Kalshi

New York

38%

Detroit

28%

Cleveland

19%

Philadelphia

14%

Predict

The Knucks are currently 38¢ favorites to win the East (+163) with Philadelphia the biggest remaining longshot at just 14¢ (+614).

Cavs vs Pistons Regular-Season Results

Date	Score	ML Winner	ATS Winner	O/U Result
Oct 27, 2025	CLE 116, DET 95	CLE (-128)	CLE (-2)	Under (231.5)
Jan 4, 2026	DET 114, CLE 110	DET (+129)	DET (+3.5)	Under (239.5)
Feb 27, 2026	DET 122, CLE 119	DET (-352)	CLE (+8.5)	Over (227.5)
Mar 3, 2026	CLE 113, DET 109	CLE (+122)	CLE (+2.5)	Under (227.5)

The Cavs took the first (Oct 27) and last (Mar 3) meetings of the season, while Detroit won the middle two. Each team won once as a plus-money underdog.

Three of the four games stayed under the total. All four had an O/U of at least 227.5.

Detroit went 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U in the first round against Orlando. Cleveland went 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U in their seven-game series against Toronto.

Pistons vs Cavaliers Series Schedule

Game	Date	Time (ET)	Location	Broadcast
1	Tue, May 5	7:00 PM	Little Caesars Arena (DET)	Peacock
2	Thu, May 7	7:00 PM	Little Caesars Arena (DET)	Amazon Prime Video
3	Sat, May 9	3:00 PM	Rocket Arena (CLE)	NBC/Peacock
4	Mon, May 11	8:00 PM	Rocket Arena (CLE)	NBC/Peacock
5*	Wed, May 13	TBD	Little Caesars Arena (DET)	TBD
6*	Fri, May 15	TBD	Rocket Arena (CLE)	TBD
7*	Sun, May 17	TBD	Little Caesars Arena (DET)	TBD

*If necessary.

The Pistons/Cavaliers series will start on Tuesday, May 5, at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. They will play every other day until the series concludes. Games 1 and 2 have a 7:00 pm ET tipoff time, while Game 3 on Saturday is at 3:00 pm ET and Game 4 on Monday at 8:00 pm ET. The tipoff times for Games 5 through 7 (if necessary) have yet to be announced.

Detroit will host Games 1, 2, 5, and 7. Cleveland will host Games 3, 4, and 6.

Bookmark SBD’s NBA odds page to see the opening lines for Game 1 of the series.

The post Opening Pistons vs Cavaliers Odds, Schedule for Round 2 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Orioles vs Yankees (May 2)

Sascha Paruk — Sat, 02 May 2026 13:38:00 +0000

The New York Yankees look to make it two straight in their 4-game series vs the Baltimore Orioles Saturday
New York has ripped off 11 wins in its last 13 games
Read below for the my Orioles vs Yankees, predictions, latest odds and betting splits

The New York Yankees are surging, winning 11 of their last 13 and sitting atop the AL East, as they continue their 4-game set with the Baltimore Orioles.

New York opened the series with a 7-2 win, and that’s part of the reason the books have them as -154 home favorites in the MLB odds.

The other? New York has whipped the O’s around of late, with six straight head-to-head wins, and nine in the last 10.

The clubs will take the field at Yankee Stadium early this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for at 1:35pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on MLB TV.

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-154 at BetMGM)

Ryan Weathers takes the mound for New York, and after spending his first six seasons in the National League, he’s putting together an impressive campaign as a first-timer in the American League, backed by a sharp 3.21 ERA.

The southpaw has found success generating swings and misses, boasting an elite 10.69 K/9. More importantly, he showcases excellent command with a 2.14 BB/9, allowing him to pitch most innings stress free.

It doesn’t hurt that he’s backed by one of the best hitting lineups in baseball.

When playing in the Bronx, the Yankees boast the highest-scoring home offense in the majors. They maximize run production through elite plate discipline and raw power, resulting in a phenomenal .806 OPS — second-best in the majors at home.

Orioles vs Yankees Head-to-Head Stats

Statistic	Baltimore (Road)	New York (Home)
Overall Record	15-17 [17th]	21-11 [2nd]
Runs per Game	3.93 [23rd]	5.86 [1st]
Batting Average (AVG)	.202 [30th]	.225 [24th]
OPS	.631 [27th]	.806 [2nd]
Stolen Bases per Game	0.36 [26th]	1.21 [1st]
Team ERA	4.22 [15th]	4.00 [18th]
Team WHIP	1.45 [24th]	1.21 [10th]

That will be the challenge for Orioles’ starter Kyle Bradish to deal with, as he’s labored through a frustrating start this campaign.

The right-hander’s biggest hurdle has been severe command struggles, which has turned in a bloated 5.10 BB/9, resulting in constant traffic on the base paths, reflected in a dangerously high 1.73 WHIP.

He doesn’t have the same lineup pop the Yankees have, as the Orioles average just 3.93 runs per game on the road, dragged down by a sluggish .631 OPS. Their lack of action on the basepaths leaves them entirely reliant on stringing together base hits, which they are currently struggling to do against elite pitching.

While Bradish still possesses decent strikeout stuff, his inability to limit free passes routinely drives up his pitch count. Navigating a patient Yankees lineup with these control issues will be a tough test.

Given Baltimore’s inability to limit baserunners and New York’s overwhelming bullpen advantage, backing the home team to win outright is my moneyline play.

The betting numbers also back that up: the Yankees boast a 7-2 record (77.8%) as a betting favorite in their last nine games, while the O’s are a miserable 3-8 as a moneyline underdog this season.

Orioles vs Yankees Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Yankees enter Saturday’s clash as comfortable home favorites, priced at -154 on the moneyline at FanDuel. This pricing accurately reflects their elite run production at Yankee Stadium and the distinct starting pitching mismatch.

While the opening total of 8.5 runs has remained frozen both at bet365 and FanDuel, bookmakers have adjusted the runline juice. New York opened as -1.5 runline favorites at +135, but those odds have since lenghtened to +140 at BetMGM. This line movement is a direct response to heavy betting support pouring in for the home side to secure a multi-run victory.

Yankees vs Orioles Public Betting Splits

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, both casual ticket-holders and heavy-hitters are moving in lockstep.

A massive 90% of tickets and an overwhelming 88% of the moneyline handle are aggressively laying the juice with New York, and it’s even more lopsided when looking at the spread.

The betting public is putting 99% of the money on New York covering the 1.5 spread, which totals 89% of all bets. And the total is also another clear pick: Over 8.5 runs — despite the fact these two teams have gone Under the total in eight of the last 10 matchups.

A massive 88% of the money and 84% of the bets are taking the Over Saturday.

The post Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Orioles vs Yankees (May 2) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Spurs vs Timberwolves Series Odds – Moneyline, Total Games, Spread for Round 2

Sascha Paruk — Fri, 01 May 2026 04:24:29 +0000

The West #2 San Antonio Spurs will meet the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round
The Spurs have opened as heavy favorites to win the best of seven
See the opening series odds for Spurs vs Timberwolves

The #2-seed San Antonio Spurs (66-21,50-36-2 ATS) will meet the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (53-35, 40-48 ATS) in the second round of the 2026 NBA playoff bracket.

Despite the absence of Anthony Edwards (week-to-week with multiple knee injuries), the shorthanded T-wolves beat the Nuggets on Thursday night to earn a 4-2 series victory, cashing as +300 underdogs to advance.

The Spurs eased past the Trail Blazers 4-1, though had to do without superstar center Victor Wembenyama for most of Games 2 and 3 due to a concussion. The 2024 first-overall pick returned with a vengeance in Games 4 and 5, racking up 44 points, 26 rebounds, and an absurd 13 blocks in the final two games of the series.

With Edwards’ availability in doubt, San Antonio has opened as a massive favorite to advance to the Western Conference final.

Spurs vs Timberwolves Series Odds

Market	Spurs	T-wolves
To Win Series	-1400	+800
Game Spread	TBD	TBD
Total Games	Ov 5.5 (TBD)	Un 5.5 (TBD)

Odds as of Apr 30 at DraftKings.

The Spurs/Timberwolves series price has opened with San Antonio as a -1400 favorite and Minnesota a +800 underdog.

The game spread and total games have yet to open.

In the NBA Championship odds, San Antonio continues to sit second to the reigning-champion OKC Thunder. But it’s a distant second. The Thunder, who swept the Suns in the first round, are already odds-on -125 favorites to repeat.

Minnesota remains a +18000 longshot to win its first NBA title.

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Regular-Season Results: SAS vs MIN

Date	Location	Score	ML Winner	ATS Winner	Total
11/30/2025	MIN	112-125	MIN (+156)	MIN +4.5	Ov 233.5 (237)
01/11/2026	MIN	103-104	MIN (+117)	SAS +2.5	Un 232.5 (207)
01/17/2026	SAS	126-123	SAS (-197)	MIN -4.5	Ov 234.5 (249)

The T-wolves took two of three from the Spurs in the regular season, both as home underdogs. The Spurs won the only meeting in San Antonio as -197 ML favorites.

Two of three games went over the total, including a 249-point outburst in the lone Spurs victory.

Check out SBD’s NBA odds page to see the opening lines for Game 1 of the series, which will take place on Monday, May 4th, at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio.

The Spurs will also host Game 2 and Games 5 and 7 if necessary. The Games 3 and 4, and 6 if necessary, will be at the Target Center in Minneapolis.

The post Spurs vs Timberwolves Series Odds – Moneyline, Total Games, Spread for Round 2 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

76ers vs Celtics Game 7 Odds – Opening Spread, Moneyline & Total

Sascha Paruk — Fri, 01 May 2026 02:28:56 +0000

Philadelphia and Boston will meet in Game 7 on Saturday, May 2
The 76ers staved off elimination with a lopsided home win on Thursday night
See the opening 76ers vs Celtics Game 7 odds

Behind a near-triple-double from Joel Embiid 19 points, 10 rebounds, 8 assists in 34 minutes), the Philadelphia 76ers forced a decisive Game 7 in their first-round series with the Boston Celtics.

The Sixers’ dominant 106-93 win in Philly on Thursday forced a Game 7 back in Boston on Saturday, May 2nd (tip-off time TBD).

Though Embiid – who missed Games 1, 2, and 3 – looks healthy a hale, the Celtics have opened as big favorites to win Game 7.

Opening Odds 76ers vs Celtics (Game 7)

Market	76ers	Celtics
Spread	+9.5 (-110)	-9.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+270	-340
Total	O 207.5 (-110)	U 207.5 (-110)

Odds as of April 30 at DraftKings

Boston is listed as a 9.5-point favorite against the spread and -340 on the moneyline. The Sixers come back as +270 road underdogs to advance. The game total has opened at 207.5.

At prediction site Kalshi, the odds for Game 7 are significantly different; Boston is trading at 72¢ to win (equal to -257 odds) with Philadelphia at 29¢ (equal to +245 odds). Celtics bettors would be well-served to claim SBD’s Kalshi promo code before wagering on Game 7.

The winner of Saturday’s Game 7 will advance to face the New York Knicks in round two of the NBA playoff bracket. New York dominated Game 6 against Atlanta (140-89) to take the series 4-2.

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PHI vs BOS Team Stats: 2026 Playoffs

76ers	Statistic	Celtics
3-3	Record	3-3
102.8	PPG	107.7
107.1	Off Rtg	111.5
111.5	Def Rtg	107.1
.442	FG%	.441
.347	3P%	.350
40.7	RPG	47.3
21.2	APG	24.5

Stats are from prior to Game 6.

The Celtics are outscoring the 76ers 107.7 to 102.8 in the series as a whole, but the Sixers have a slightly better field-goal percentage. Rebounding has been the biggest difference-maker for the C’s, who are +6.3 on the glass, on average, over the first six games of the series.

76ers vs Celtics Series Results (Games 1 to 6)

Game	Location	Score	ML Winner	ATS Winner	O/U
1	BOS	123-91	BOS (-855)	BOS -12.5	Under (216.5)
2	BOS	97-111	PHI (+572)	PHI +13.5	Under (217.5)
3	PHI	108-100	BOS (-369)	PHI +8.5	Under (215.5)
4	PHI	128-96	BOS (-229)	BOS -6.5	Over (212.5)
5	BOS	97-113	PHI (+343)	PHI +10.5	Under (214.5)
6	PHI	106-93	PHI (+195)	PHI +6.5	Under (213.5)

The Sixers have cashed as big underdogs three times already in the series, winning Game 2 as massive +572 underdogs, Game 5 as +343 underdogs, and Game 6 as +195 ‘dogs.

The under has hit in five of the first six games. Only Game 4 – a 128-96 Boston win – went over its total of 212.5. The opening total for Game 7 of 207.5 is five points lower than any other game in the series.

Bookmark SBD’s NBA odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for Saturday’s series finale.

The post 76ers vs Celtics Game 7 Odds – Opening Spread, Moneyline & Total appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Predictions, Props & Odds (Apr 29)

Sascha Paruk — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 14:12:01 +0000

Back Arsenal (+150) as their elite defense heavily suppresses high-danger scoring chances
I project a tactical battle, making Under 2.5 (-145) a +EV play
Expect Viktor Gyokeres (+225) to exploit an injury-riddled Atletico backline

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || INJURIES

The stakes are immense as Arsenal FC travels to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano to battle Atletico Madrid in a blockbuster UEFA Champions League semifinal. Kickoff is set for 3:00 pm ET on Wednesday, April 29, streaming live on Paramount+ and Fubo TV.

Entering as a road favorite, Mikel Arteta’s undefeated squad rides a dominant six-match winning streak into the final four, spearheaded by elite playmakers Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka. Atleti embraces the role of gritty home underdog after finishing 14th in the initial standings. They will rely heavily on Julian Alvarez to to mount their upset bid.

In this preview, I break down the betting market and highlight actionable mismatches. I analyze the line movement, uncover profitable player props, and deliver my official predictions for this pivotal tie.

Atletico vs Arsenal Odds

Prediction Markets

3-Way ML & O/U

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Under 2.5 Goals

59%

Over 2.5 Goals

43%

Arsenal to Win

42%

Atletico to Win

31%

Full-Time Draw

30%

Predict

The best odds for the three-way moneyline and total-goals markets are found at prediction site Kalshi, where Arsenal to win is trading at 42¢ (equal to +138 odds), Atletico Madrid to win is trading at 31¢ (+223), and a 90-minute draw is trading at 30¢ (+233).

The under is favored in the total-goals market, with U 2.5 trading at 59¢ (-144) and O 2.5 trading at 43¢ (+133).

A $20 wager on the Arsenal moneyline yields a $27.60 profit, resulting in a total payout of $47.60. Conversely, a $20 bet on the underdog Atletico returns a $44.60 profit for a total payout of $64.60.

The opening total-goals odds had over 2.5 at +110. That has since ballooned to +133, suggesting early market respect for a low-scoring contest.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction, Best Bet & Goalscorer Pick

When handicapping this semifinal, the structural edge heavily favors the visitors. Arsenal suffocates opponents in the half-court, effectively walling off the paint and denying dribble penetration. Over 12 fixtures, they have conceded a minuscule five goals.

3-Way Moneyline Pick: Arsenal (+138 at Kalshi)

I am backing the visitors to exploit a porous defense. This wager offers strong positive expected value (+EV) against an overmatched backline.

This is not your dad’s Atletico squad, as they say. Madrid’s path has been an absolute shootout, leaking 26 goals across 14 matches. Their transition defense is highly vulnerable. Arsenal is currently 6-0 straight up in their last six matches, a 100% situational trend that strongly supports backing the road favorite.

Total-Goals Pick: Under 2.5 (-144 at Kalshi)

Arsenal’s defensive wall concedes just 0.42 goals per match. Expect a fragmented, low-scoring chess match where high-danger looks are contested heavily. This is a clear +EV angle.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Viktor Gyokeres (+225 at BetMGM)

Line shopping is critical here, and extracting +225 presents immense value compared to consensus odds. With Leandro Trossard providing excellent spacing and four assists, Gyokeres will feast on interior scoring chances.

Last Two H2H Matches: ATM vs ARS

Metric	Atletico	Arsenal
Wins	1 (PEN)	1
Goals Scored	1	5
Avg. Possession	43.5%	56.5%
Avg. Shots	9.5	13.5
Avg. Shots on Target	2.0	6.5

While I have included the last two matches in this table, Atletico’s victory came via a 2018 exhibition shootout. The truly relevant data point is their October 21, 2025, meeting, where Arsenal dismantled Simeone’s squad 4-0.

Across their matchups, Arsenal has established firm control over the midfield, dictating tempo with an average of 56.5% ball possession. They have generated an average of 13.5 total shots while suffocating the Spanish side to a meager 2.0 shots on target per contest. These mismatches align with my moneyline projection.

Team Statistics

Statistic (Per Game)	Atletico	Arsenal
Points Per Game	1.63 (14th)	3.00 (1st)
Goals Scored	2.13 (14th)	2.88 (1st)
Goals Conceded	1.86 (14th)	0.42 (1st)
Total Shots	12.86 (14th)	13.92 (1st)
Shots on Target	5.50 (14th)	7.08 (1st)
Corner Kicks	5.50 (14th)	5.75 (1st)

The most glaring mismatch is the defensive discrepancy. Arsenal allowed a staggering 0.42 goals per game during their eight league-phase games. On the flip side, Atletico bleeds an average of 1.86 goals. Those dynamics have continued into the UCL playoffs. Atleti beat Brugge 7-4 on aggregate and Tottenham 7-5 on aggregate before eking out a 3-2 win over Barcelona.

Arsenal beat Sporting 1-0 and Bayer Leverkusen 3-1.

Arsenal vs Atletico Injury Reports

Navigating the injury report is vital for my handicap. Both squads are managing late-season fitness issues that directly impact the tactical mismatches I highlighted earlier.

Atletico is dealing with a brutal wave of injuries. Atletico’s key center-backs Jose Maria Gimenez and David Hancko are missing. Ademola Lookman is also out, while midfielder Pablo Barrios is doubtful.

Without their vital defensive anchors, Atletico must shuffle their backline. This makes their interior defense highly vulnerable to precise shot generation and fast break opportunities.

Arsenal’s vaunted defense will have its depth tested with Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori confirmed out. Midfielder Mikel Merino is also missing, while Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze carry doubtful tags.

If Havertz is ruled out, the offensive burden falls heavily on Gyokeres to exploit this depleted central defense. This cements his value in the anytime goalscorer markets.

The post Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Predictions, Props & Odds (Apr 29) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Predictions, Odds & Best Bets for the Champions League Semifinal

Sascha Paruk — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 14:18:46 +0000

See my top PSG vs Bayern Munich predictions and picks plus the best odds
Back the +317 draw as PSG and Bayern Munich post identically elite metrics
Grab the Under 3.5 goals with both defenses allowing near one goal per match

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || H2H STATS || INJURIES

The UEFA Champions League semifinals kick off on Tuesday, April 28, at 3:00 pm ET as PSG hosts Bayern Munich on CBS and Paramount+.

Bayern enters as a highly dangerous road underdog riding a formidable win streak. PSG is the narrow home favorite in the first leg.

This clash features elite offensive firepower, pitting Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia against a ruthless Bayern attack headlined by Harry Kane. However, major injuries complicate the handicapping angles, as both squads are missing vital tactical components.

In this preview, I will break down the matchup dynamics, highlighting the true market value for the moneyline, total, and player props.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Betting Odds

Prediction Markets

3-Way ML & O/U

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Under 3.5 Goals

54%

Over 3.5 Goals

47%

PSG Win

40%

Bayern Win

38%

Full-Time Draw

24%

Predict

Odds as of 9:59 am ET, April 28, at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code. .

The oddsmakers project an exceptionally tight first leg in this Champions League semifinal, giving a slight edge to the home side: PSG is trading at 40¢ to win (equal to +150 odds) with Bayern at 38¢ (+163) and a draw at 24¢ (+317).

A $10 wager on the home side (+150) returns a total payout of $25.00 if PSG wins. Placing that exact $10 bet on the visiting German squad (+163) yields a $26.30 payout.

The handicap market opened at -0.25 (-115) for the hosts, but sharp money quickly pushed it to even money (+100). Meanwhile, the total opened at an aggressive 3.5 goals, with the Under drawing early action to settle at 54¢ (-117) compared to the over at 47¢ (+113).

PSG vs Bayern Munich Expert Predictions, Picks & Props

When elite tacticians clash with thin margins, I immediately look for analytical symmetry to exploit the betting board. A deep dive into the underlying metrics reveals excellent +EV opportunities.

PSG vs Bayern Moneyline Pick: Draw (+317 at Kalshi)

There is immense value in backing the 90-minute draw. These heavyweights are statistical mirror images. Both sides average an identical 7.2 shots on target per match and share nearly indistinguishable corner kick generation.

Total-Goals Pick: Under 3.5 Goals (-117 at Kalshi)

A 3.5-goal total is exceptionally high for a European semifinal. My data shows PSG concedes just 1.21 goals per match. The visitors are equally stingy, allowing only 1.16. Combined, they yield 2.37 goals per game, making the Under a mathematically sound investment.

Goalscorer Pick: Jamal Musiala Anytime Goal (+280 at BetMGM)

Finding true edge in player props requires shopping lines. Bet365 prices Musiala at +175, implying a 36.3% probability. However, BetMGM floats a highly divergent +280 line (26.3% implied). Securing a full 10% delta in true probability on an elite attacker crashing the box provides massive +EV.

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PSG vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head History & Stats

PSG	Statistical Metric	Bayern
1	Head-to-Head Wins	3
4	Total Goals Scored	6
46.5%	Avg. Ball Possession	53.5%
13.0	Avg. Shots (Total)	15.0
4.5	Avg. Shots on Target	6.75
3.5	Avg. Corners	4.25

Historically, the visiting side holds a surface-level advantage, claiming three victories in my database’s last four tracked meetings. However, the goal-scoring metrics firmly validate my Under prediction.

Across these four matchups, the clubs combined for a mere 10 goals, averaging exactly 2.5 per contest. They are notoriously slow starters against one another, producing an average of just 0.6 first-half goals.

While the visitors generate higher shot volume historically, the Parisian counter-attack neutralizes possession disparities. The historical context perfectly supports a low-scoring grind.

Team Stats Comparison: UCL

PSG	Statistical Metric	Bayern Munich
2.63 (T-4th)	Goals Scored	2.75 (T-2nd)
1.21 (8th)	Goals Conceded	1.16 (5th)
17.4 (2nd)	Shots	18.1 (1st)
7.2 (2nd)	Shots on Target	7.3 (1st)
5.7 (7th)	Corner Kicks	5.8 (5th)

The current Champions League per-game averages paint a picture of undeniable parity.

The most glaring similarity is their relentless shot volume. Bayern leads the entire competition with 18.1 shots per match, while the hosts trail right behind in second place with 17.4.

Despite sitting 11th in overall points per game, the hosts match their German counterparts shot-for-shot. When two top-tier defensive units mirror each other’s offensive production this closely, attacking mismatches evaporate, paving the way for a fiercely contested draw.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Injury Reports

Player	Team	Status	Reason
Vitinha	PSG	Probable	Injured
Raphael Guerreiro	Bayern Munich	Out	Injured
Sergy Gnabry	Bayern Munich	Out	Injured

Navigating a deep European run inevitably thins out rotational depth. Both managers face critical absences ahead of Tuesday’s kickoff.

Vitinha’s return for the home side is massive. He operates as their midfield engine, already contributing six goals this campaign. Without his ball progression, Saint-Germain wpi;d struggle to generate fast break opportunities in transition. He isn’t projected to be in the starting lineup but he should be available off the bench.

For the visitors, losing veteran winger Serge Gnabry severely impacts their wide attacking options. The subsequent injury to Raphael Guerreiro also strips away tactical versatility.

These significant subtractions of goal-scoring talent solidify my read on a low-scoring, tightly guarded tactical stalemate.

The post PSG vs Bayern Munich Predictions, Odds & Best Bets for the Champions League Semifinal appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

NFL Draft Odds – Betting Favorites for Each of the Top 16 Picks

Sascha Paruk — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:56:36 +0000

The NFL Draft takes place Thursday night in Pittsburgh, PA
The odds for each of the top 16 picks are shifting rapidly on draft day
See the top-five betting favorites for each of the first 16 picks in the NFL Draft

The 2026 NFL Draft is now just hours away. Scheduled to start at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday night at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA, the NFL Draft odds are seeing significant movement on the morning of draft day, as they’re wont to do.

This is the first year that prediction site Kalshi has offered a massive slate of NFL Draft odds, including markets on each of the first 16 picks (i.e. the first half of the first round). In the sections below, I have set out the current top 5 to 10 favorites at Kalshi, while noting where the Kalshi favorite diverges from Matt McEwan’s final NFL Mock Draft, which is based entirely on betting odds from online sportsbooks.

Jump to: #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | #15 | #16

#1 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (LV Raiders)

Prediction Markets

Final #1 Pick Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Fernando Mendoza

99%

Arch Manning

Garrett Nussmeier

LaNorris Sellers

Drew Allar

Predict

Click “Predict” in any of the graphics on this page to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock. If Fernando Mendoza isn’t the #1 pick, it will be the biggest draft-day surprise in NFL history.

#2 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Jets)

Prediction Markets

Final #2 Pick Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

David Bailey

54%

Arvell Reese

45%

Jeremiyah Love

Fernando Mendoza

Francis Mauigoa

Predict

Both the Kalshi odds and sportsbook prices favor edge rusher David Bailey going #2 to the Jets, though fellow edge rusher Arvell Reese is a close second-favorite.

#3 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (ARI Cardinals)

Prediction Markets

Final #3 Pick Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Arvell Reese

35%

Jeremiyah Love

35%

David Bailey

22%

Sonny Styles

Francis Mauigoa

Predict

The odds to be the #3 picks are extremely tight. Kalshi traders give edge rusher Arvell Reese a slight edge over running back Jeremiyah Love.

The odds-based mock draft also has Reese third overall to the Cardinals.

#4 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (TEN Titans)

Prediction Markets

Final #4 Picks Odds

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Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love

35%

Sonny Styles

33%

Arvell Reese

14%

David Bailey

Carnell Tate

Predict

The #4 pick odds are even closer than the #3 pick; as of 1:00 pm ET, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Sonny Styles were in a dead-heat at Kalshi.

The odds-based mock draft has Love at #4.

#5 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Giants)

Prediction Markets

Final #5 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Jordyn Tyson

24%

Caleb Downs

24%

Sonny Styles

22%

Jeremiyah Love

17%

Arvell Reese

Francis Mauigoa

Predict

The #5 pick is the first where the Kalshi prices and the odds-based mock draft differ. Kalshi traders have safety Caleb Downs as the modest chalk. Sportsbooks favor linebacker Sonny Styles.

#6 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (CLE Browns)

Prediction Markets

Final #6 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Spencer Fano

23%

Carnell Tate

19%

Francis Mauigoa

14%

Makai Lemon

12%

Jordyn Tyson

11%

Olaivavega Ioane

Predict

The #6 pick odds are another hyper-tight market at Kalshi. OL Spencer Fano is trading at 22¢, just ahead of WR Carnell Tate.

The odds-based mock draft goes in a different direction with WR Jordyn Tyson at #6.

#7 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (WSH Commanders)

Prediction Markets

Final #7 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Carnell Tate

24%

Sonny Styles

23%

Jordyn Tyson

15%

Mansoor Delane

11%

Jeremiyah Love

10%

Caleb Downs

Predict

There is a clear top-two in the #7 pick odds: WR Carnell Tate (26¢) and linebacker Sonny Styles (22¢).

Sportsbook lines lean to safety Caleb Downs at #7.

#8 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NO Saints)

Prediction Markets

Final #8 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love

37%

Jordyn Tyson

21%

Carnell Tate

17%

Caleb Downs

15%

Rueben Bain Jr.

13%

Mansoor Delane

13%

Kayden McDonald

13%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Makai Lemon

Ty Simpson

Predict

WR Jordyn Tyson is the top pick to go #8 to the Saints at Kalshi, trading at 28¢ and trending up.

Sportsbooks also favor the Saints taking a WR but those odds lean to Carnell Tate.

#9 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (KC Chiefs)

Prediction Markets

Final #9 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Mansoor Delane

22%

Rueben Bain Jr.

21%

Monroe Freeling

15%

David Bailey

14%

Francis Mauigoa

12%

Spencer Fano

12%

Jordyn Tyson

Caleb Downs

Carnell Tate

Makai Lemon

Predict

The #9 pick prices at Kalshi slightly favor cornerback Mansoor Delane (21¢) over edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr (20¢).

The odds-based mock draft has KC going with OL Francis Mauigoa.

#10 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Giants)

Prediction Markets

Final #10 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Caleb Downs

22%

Jordyn Tyson

17%

Mansoor Delane

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

13%

Francis Mauigoa

11%

Jeremiyah Love

11%

Makai Lemon

10%

Carnell Tate

Spencer Fano

Sonny Styles

Predict

Also the slight favorite to be the #5 pick, Caleb Downs is heavier chalk to go #10 to the Giants. Downs is trading at 22¢, well ahead of WR Jordyn Tyson at 17¢.

The odds-based mock draft has the Giants going with OL Spencer Fano. New York acquired this pick from the Bengals in exchange for edge rusher Dexter Lawrence.

#11 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (MIA Dolphins)

Prediction Markets

Final #11 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Rueben Bain Jr.

25%

Mansoor Delane

15%

Jermod McCoy

13%

Spencer Fano

12%

Makai Lemon

11%

Kenyon Sadiq

10%

Caleb Banks

10%

Kadyn Proctor

Francis Mauigoa

Caleb Downs

Predict

The #11 pick odds are currently a two-horse race between edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr (23¢) and OL Francis Mauigoa (22¢).

The odds-based mock draft has corner Mansoor Delane going 11th to the Dolphins.

#12 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (DAL Cowboys)

Prediction Markets

Final #12 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Mansoor Delane

23%

Akheem Mesidor

17%

Keldric Faulk

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

15%

Caleb Downs

14%

Rueben Bain Jr.

14%

Jermod McCoy

11%

Dillon Thieneman

10%

Jordyn Tyson

Monroe Freeling

Predict

The #12 pick prices lean to Dallas taking Mansoor Delane, who’s trading at 21¢. Second-favorite Rueben Bain Jr is at 16¢.

The odds-based mock draft has Bain as the chalk.

#13 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (LA Rams)

Prediction Markets

Final #13 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Makai Lemon

51%

Ty Simpson

33%

Olaivavega Ioane

17%

Omar Cooper Jr.

17%

Spencer Fano

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

16%

Monroe Freeling

16%

Dillon Thieneman

16%

Jordyn Tyson

15%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Predict

There’s heavy consensus on the #13 pick: both Kalshi and the odds-based mock draft have the Rams taking WR Makai Lemon. The USC product is trading at a relatively short 36¢ at Kalshi.

#14 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (BAL Ravens)

Prediction Markets

Final #14 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Olaivavega Ioane

35%

Dillon Thieneman

19%

Kenyon Sadiq

18%

Spencer Fano

16%

Denzel Boston

11%

Makai Lemon

10%

Rueben Bain Jr.

10%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Peter Woods

Monroe Freeling

Predict

The #14 pick odds have a surprisingly heavy favorite for a position this far down the board. The Ravens are widely expected to draft OL Olaivavega Ioane. The odds-based mock draft also has the Penn State guard at #14 to Baltimore.

#15 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (TB Buccaneers)

Prediction Markets

Final #15 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Akheem Mesidor

40%

R Mason Thomas

37%

Monroe Freeling

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

15%

Jermod McCoy

14%

Keldric Faulk

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

11%

Blake Miller

10%

Kadyn Proctor

10%

Malachi Lawrence

Predict

Kalshi traders favor Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor going to the Buccaneers at #15. Sportsbooks have tight end Kenyon Sadiq at #15.

#16 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Jets)

Prediction Markets

Final #16 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Sonny Styles

99%

Makai Lemon

16%

Omar Cooper Jr.

15%

Jermod McCoy

13%

Ty Simpson

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

13%

Caleb Downs

10%

Denzel Boston

10%

Avieon Terrell

10%

Kenyon Sadiq

10%

Predict

Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr has become a massive favorite to go to the Jets with the #16 pick. New York acquired the #16 pick from the Colts.

The odds at sportsbooks give the edge to offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor.

The post NFL Draft Odds – Betting Favorites for Each of the Top 16 Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Updated Blazers vs Spurs Series Odds After Wemby Injury, Portland’s Game 2 Win

Sascha Paruk — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 03:11:33 +0000

Portland evened its best-of-seven series with San Antonio at one game apiece on Tuesday
Worse for the Spurs, Victor Wembenyama exited Game 2 with a head injury
See the updated Trail Blazers vs Spurs series odds

The Portland Trail Blazers went into Tuesday night dead in the water, at least according to oddsmakers. Already down 1-0, Portland was a +475 underdog to win Game 2 and a +3200 longshot to win their best-of-seven series with the San Antonio Spurs.

A few short hours later, how the tables have turned … or at least partially rotated. Portland won Game 2 (106-103) and Spurs’ All-Star Victor Wembenyama left with a head injury and entered concussion protocol.

That series of events led to Portland’s odds improving drastically.

Updated Trail Blazers vs Spurs Series Odds

Prediction Markets

After Game 2

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Kalshi

San Antonio

81%

Portland

20%

Predict

Portland is now trading at 19¢ to win the series, which is equal to +426 odds. Yes, the Blazers are still a longshot, but those odds are six-times better than their odds ahead of Game 2.

San Antonio, meanwhile, faded from a roughly -3300 (97¢) lock to a -456 (82¢) favorite.

Heavy chalk? Certainly. Inevitable? Far from it.

Will Wembenyama Play in Game 3?

At this point, that’s not clear. The 22-year-old suffered a concussion in the second quarter of Tuesday’s loss after hitting his head on the court. He left and did not return, entering the league’s mandatory concussion protocol.

Concussion protocol requires at least 48 hours of inactivity followed by clearance from a doctor before returning to the court.

The good news for San Antonio is that Game 3 in Portland isn’t until Friday.

Remaining Spurs vs Blazers Schedule

Game	Date	Time (ET)	Location
Game 3	Fri, Apr 24	10:30 PM	Portland
Game 4	Sun, Apr 26	3:30 PM	Portland
Game 5	Tue, Apr 28	TBD	San Antonio
Game 6	Thu, Apr 30	TBD	Portland
Game 7	Sat, May 2	TBD	San Antonio

Wembenyama had a game-high 35 points in San Antonio’s 111-98 Game 1 rout, going 4-of-5 from three while also adding five boards and two blocks.

Stephon Castle had a team-high 18 points in Tuesday’s loss, going just 7-of-20 from the field. San Antonio was +7 on the glass in Game 1 and -1 in Game 2.

Despite the injury and the series shifting to Portland, Kalshi’s opening odds for Game 3 list the Spurs as slight 52¢ favorites (equal to -108 odds) with Portland at 50¢ (+100 odds).

Traditional sportsbooks have the odds skewed even more heavily to the road team.

Opening Spurs vs Blazers Game 3 Odds

Game 3 will be broadcast on Prime Video on April 24th.

Bookmark SBD’s NBA odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for all NBA playoff games.

The post Updated Blazers vs Spurs Series Odds After Wemby Injury, Portland’s Game 2 Win appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

First Position Drafted by Each Team – Odds for All Teams on the Board

Sascha Paruk — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 17:00:54 +0000

Odds on the first position drafted by each NFL team are out
Will your team go offense or defense with its first pick?
See the first position drafted odds for every team on the board

The 2026 NFL Draft is fewer than 48 hours away and sportsbooks have posted odds for almost all teams’ first pick in Thursday’s draft.

The table below lists all teams on the board at DraftKings in alphabetical order. The second section lists the number of first-round picks by position over the last five years. The third section lists each team’s last five top picks by year/position.

Use the following anchors to navigate directly to the team you’re most-interested in. Note that the following teams are off the board: Arizona, Cleveland, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, New York Jets, Tennessee, Washington.

Jump to: ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | MIN | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB

Odds on First Position Drafted by Each NFL Team

ATL FALCONS
Defensive Line/Edge	+185
Offensive Lineman	+240
Wide Receiver	+320
Linebacker	+500
Cornerback	+600
Safety	+1700
Quarterback	+2500
Tight End	+3000
Running Back	+4000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+10000
BAL RAVENS
Offensive Lineman	+130
Wide Receiver	+270
Tight End	+425
Defensive Line/Edge	+475
Cornerback	+600
Running Back	+2200
Safety	+2500
Linebacker	+3000
Quarterback	+10000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
BUF BILLS
Defensive Line/Edge	+100
Offensive Lineman	+320
Wide Receiver	+475
Cornerback	+475
Linebacker	+750
Safety	+1000
Tight End	+5000
Running Back	+9000
Quarterback	+25000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+25000
CAR PANTHERS
Offensive Lineman	+225
Tight End	+310
Wide Receiver	+330
Defensive Line/Edge	+475
Safety	+500
Cornerback	+600
Linebacker	+3000
Running Back	+5500
Quarterback	+5500
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+25000
CHI BEARS
Defensive Line/Edge	-120
Safety	+300
Offensive Lineman	+300
Cornerback	+750
Linebacker	+1400
Wide Receiver	+1800
Running Back	+2500
Tight End	+7000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
Quarterback	+25000
CIN BENGALS
Cornerback	+300
Safety	+330
Defensive Line/Edge	+330
Offensive Lineman	+370
Linebacker	+370
Tight End	+900
Wide Receiver	+1800
Running Back	+3000
Quarterback	+5000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
DEN BRONCOS
Linebacker	+225
Defensive Line/Edge	+235
Tight End	+425
Offensive Lineman	+425
Safety	+750
Running Back	+750
Cornerback	+1200
Wide Receiver	+2500
Quarterback	+5500
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+15000
DET LIONS
Offensive Lineman	-380
Defensive Line/Edge	+300
Cornerback	+650
Linebacker	+1600
Wide Receiver	+3000
Safety	+3000
Tight End	+3500
Quarterback	+6000
Running Back	+7500
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+25000
GB PACKERS
Offensive Lineman	+165
Cornerback	+165
Defensive Line/Edge	+250
Wide Receiver	+900
Safety	+2000
Running Back	+2000
Tight End	+2200
Linebacker	+2500
Quarterback	+4000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+15000
HOU TEXANS
Offensive Lineman	-160
Defensive Line/Edge	+175
Linebacker	+850
Wide Receiver	+1400
Safety	+2200
Running Back	+2200
Cornerback	+2200
Tight End	+2500
Quarterback	+7000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
IND COLTS
Defensive Line/Edge	+210
Linebacker	+235
Offensive Lineman	+360
Wide Receiver	+425
Safety	+475
Quarterback	+1600
Cornerback	+2000
Running Back	+4000
Tight End	+6000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+10000
JAX JAGUARS
Defensive Line/Edge	+140
Offensive Lineman	+370
Cornerback	+500
Safety	+550
Linebacker	+550
Wide Receiver	+850
Running Back	+1500
Tight End	+1800
Quarterback	+8000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
KC CHIEFS
Offensive Lineman	+250
Defensive Line/Edge	+275
Cornerback	+300
Wide Receiver	+320
Safety	+650
Tight End	+1000
Linebacker	+1800
Running Back	+4000
Quarterback	+30000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+30000
LA CHARGERS
Defensive Line/Edge	-120
Offensive Lineman	+155
Wide Receiver	+475
Cornerback	+850
Safety	+1600
Linebacker	+1800
Tight End	+2000
Running Back	+6000
Quarterback	+20000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
LA RAMS
Wide Receiver	+100
Offensive Lineman	+220
Tight End	+750
Quarterback	+850
Defensive Line/Edge	+850
Safety	+1200
Cornerback	+2200
Linebacker	+2500
Running Back	+3500
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
MIN VIKINGS
Safety	+130
Defensive Line/Edge	+250
Cornerback	+350
Offensive Lineman	+550
Tight End	+1000
Wide Receiver	+1800
Running Back	+2000
Linebacker	+2500
Quarterback	+7000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
PHI EAGLES
Offensive Lineman	-200
Wide Receiver	+290
Tight End	+800
Defensive Line/Edge	+800
Safety	+1000
Quarterback	+2500
Cornerback	+2500
Linebacker	+5000
Running Back	+15000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
PIT STEELERS
Offensive Lineman	+140
Wide Receiver	+200
Safety	+550
Defensive Line/Edge	+800
Cornerback	+1000
Quarterback	+1200
Tight End	+1400
Linebacker	+1400
Running Back	+4000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
SEA SEAHAWKS
Cornerback	+155
Running Back	+330
Offensive Lineman	+330
Defensive Line/Edge	+400
Safety	+1000
Linebacker	+1000
Wide Receiver	+1400
Tight End	+4000
Quarterback	+15000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
SF 49ERS
Offensive Lineman	+100
Defensive Line/Edge	+230
Wide Receiver	+450
Cornerback	+600
Safety	+1100
Tight End	+1500
Linebacker	+2800
Running Back	+6000
Quarterback	+15000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000
TB BUCCANEERS
Defensive Line/Edge	+135
Tight End	+300
Offensive Lineman	+330
Cornerback	+380
Linebacker	+1000
Wide Receiver	+1500
Safety	+3000
Quarterback	+4500
Running Back	+6000
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper	+20000

Odds as of April 21st at DraftKings. Claim the DraftKings promo code to get a bonus to use on the 2026 NFL Draft.

The following section lists the recent first-round NFL Draft results by position.

First-Round Picks by Position – Last 5 Years

Year	QB	WR	TE	RB	OL	DL	LB	CB	S
2025	2	4	2	2	8	9	2	3	1
2024	6	7	1	0	9	6	0	3	0
2023	3	4	1	2	5	7	5	4	0
2022	1	6	0	0	9	7	2	4	3
2021	5	5	1	2	5	6	3	5	0
Avg	3.4	5.2	1.0	1.2	7.2	7.0	2.4	3.8	0.8

The Last four years have been dominated by linemen in the first round. D-linemen (including both interior and edge rushers) led the way with nine first-round picks last season, according to Sportradar data. O-linemen were second with eight. O-line and D-line have alternated most first-round picks each of the last four years and have combined to average 7.2 and 7.0, respectively, over that five-year span.

Wideouts are third at 5.2 per year.

The next section lists each team’s last five top draft picks (along with the overall number of their first selection).

Top Pick by Each Team – Last 5 Years

Team	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Arizona Cardinals	LB (#16)	TE (#55)	T (#6)	WR (#4)	DT (#16)
Atlanta Falcons	TE (#4)	WR (#8)	RB (#8)	QB (#8)	DE (#15)
Baltimore Ravens	WR (#27)	SAF (#14)	WR (#22)	CB (#30)	SAF (#27)
Buffalo Bills	DE (#30)	CB (#23)	TE (#25)	WR (#33)	CB (#30)
Carolina Panthers	DB (#8)	T (#6)	QB (#1)	WR (#32)	WR (#8)
Chicago Bears	QB (#11)	CB (#39)	T (#10)	QB (#1)	TE (#10)
Cincinnati Bengals	WR (#5)	DB (#31)	DE (#28)	T (#18)	DE (#17)
Cleveland Browns	DB (#26)	CB (#68)	WR (#74)	DT (#54)	DT (#5)
Dallas Cowboys	LB (#12)	T (#24)	DT (#26)	T (#29)	G (#12)
Denver Broncos	DB (#9)	OLB (#64)	WR (#63)	QB (#12)	CB (#20)
Detroit Lions	T (#7)	DE (#2)	RB (#12)	CB (#24)	DT (#28)
Green Bay Packers	DB (#29)	LB (#22)	OLB (#13)	T (#25)	WR (#23)
Houston Texans	QB (#67)	DB (#3)	QB (#2)	DB (#42)	WR (#34)
Indianapolis Colts	DE (#21)	WR (#53)	QB (#4)	DE (#15)	TE (#14)
Jacksonville Jaguars	QB (#1)	OLB (#1)	T (#27)	WR (#23)	WR (#2)
Kansas City Chiefs	LB (#58)	CB (#21)	DE (#31)	WR (#28)	T (#32)
Las Vegas Raiders	T (#17)	G (#90)	OLB (#7)	TE (#13)	RB (#6)
Los Angeles Chargers	T (#13)	G (#17)	WR (#21)	T (#5)	RB (#22)
Los Angeles Rams	WR (#57)	G (#104)	C (#36)	DE (#19)	TE (#46)
Miami Dolphins	WR (#6)	LB (#102)	CB (#51)	DE (#21)	DT (#13)
Minnesota Vikings	T (#23)	SAF (#32)	WR (#23)	QB (#10)	G (#24)
New England Patriots	QB (#15)	G (#29)	CB (#17)	QB (#3)	T (#4)
New Orleans Saints	DE (#28)	WR (#11)	DT (#29)	T (#14)	T (#9)
New York Giants	WR (#20)	DE (#5)	CB (#24)	WR (#6)	LB (#3)
New York Jets	QB (#2)	CB (#4)	DE (#15)	T (#11)	T (#7)
Philadelphia Eagles	WR (#10)	DT (#13)	DT (#9)	CB (#22)	LB (#31)
Pittsburgh Steelers	RB (#24)	QB (#20)	T (#14)	T (#20)	DT (#21)
San Francisco 49ers	QB (#3)	OLB (#61)	SAF (#87)	WR (#31)	DE (#11)
Seattle Seahawks	WR (#56)	T (#9)	CB (#5)	DT (#16)	G (#18)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	OLB (#32)	DT (#33)	DT (#19)	C (#26)	WR (#19)

Bookmark SBD’s NFL Draft odds page to see the latest lines and movement ahead of Thursday’s festivities in Pittsburgh, PA.

The post First Position Drafted by Each Team – Odds for All Teams on the Board appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Braves vs Phillies Picks & Player Props to Bet (Sunday Night Baseball, April 19)

Sascha Paruk — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 20:25:00 +0000

The red-hot Atlanta Braves (14-7) and slumping Philadelphia Phillies (8-12) conclude their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday Night Baseball this evening at at 7:20 pm ET. Following last night’s tight 3-1 victory behind an error-free defensive performance and a strong start from Chris Sale, the visiting dugout is looking to keep its momentum rolling. Meanwhile, the home squad hopes to string base hits together after Felix Reyes provided their only spark with a solo home run in the defeat.

I am breaking down tonight’s National League clash from a betting angle, highlighting key statistical advantages and pitching dynamics. With elite bats like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner looking to find gaps instead of gloves, this matchup offers several intriguing wagering opportunities. Let’s dive into the odds, injury updates, and my top picks for this divisional showdown.

Braves vs Phillies Picks & Predictions

My top pick for tonight’s game is the Atlanta moneyline, which bettors can get at +104 at FanDuel or 49c at Kalshi (equal to +104 odds).

Moneyline Pick: Atlanta Braves (+104) at Kalshi

Prediction Markets

ATL vs PHI ML Pick

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Kalshi

Atlanta

49%

Predict

Structurally, the most glaring disparity lies in run prevention. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been borderline untouchable, posting a collective 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Conversely, Philadelphia’s arms carry a bloated 1.41 WHIP and a 4.88 ERA. The home lineup averages an impressive 89.9 mph exit velocity, suggesting they are hitting into bad luck, but their .226 batting average remains a major red flag.

ATL vs PHI Team Stats

Statistic	Braves (Road)	Phillies (Home)
Runs per Game	6.00 [3rd]	3.86 [21st]
Batting Average	.259 [7th]	.226 [23rd]
OPS	.787 [4th]	.684 [22nd]
Average Exit Velo.	88.4 mph [15th]	89.9 mph [6th]
Team ERA	2.70 [11th]	4.88 [25th]
Team WHIP	1.07 [2nd]	1.41 [25th]

Given these statistical disparities, backing the road underdog is my most logical play. The heavy financial volume (83.8% handle) heavily supports this angle.

Best Hitter Prop: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Hits (-150 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Matt Olson 1+ Hits

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Kalshi

Olson 1+ Hits

60%

Predict

Olson is having a phenomenal season, batting .296 with a massive .999 OPS and five home runs. Producing 1.143 base knocks per game on average, targeting him to find a gap against a vulnerable middle-relief unit is a high-confidence angle.

Best Pitcher Prop: Andrew Painter Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-104 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Painter 5+ Ks

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Kalshi

Painter 5+ Ks

51%

Predict

Despite his team’s defensive struggles, Painter features elite stuff on the mound. He is averaging 10.05 punch-outs per nine innings this season. With excellent control and massive strikeout capability, backing him to record at least five Ks offers tremendous mathematical value.

Braves vs Phillies Odds

Looking at the current betting market, Philadelphia is priced as a -125 moneyline favorite, while Atlanta offers plus-money value at +104 as a road underdog. Removing the vig, the implied true probability sits at roughly 46.8% for the visitors and 53.2% for the home squad. For the game total, the line sits at 8.5 runs, with heavy juice protecting the Under at -130 compared to the Over at +110.

Starting Pitcher Stats: Holmes vs Painter

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	Opp. BA	HR/9
Holmes (ATL)	2-2	3.32	1.11	4.53	7.06	4.15	.182	0.83
Painter (PHI)	2-0	3.76	1.33	2.96	10.05	1.88	.291	0.00

Grant Holmes takes the bump bringing a reliable 3.32 ERA and a crisp 1.11 WHIP over 65 innings. He has suffocated opposing bats, holding hitters to a microscopic .182 batting average. However, an elevated 4.53 xFIP and a high 4.15 BB/9 indicate he must command the strike zone better tonight.

On the other side, Andrew Painter brings dynamic swing-and-miss stuff. Despite a slightly higher 3.76 ERA across 43 frames, his advanced metrics are incredible. He sports a sparkling 2.96 xFIP, zero home runs allowed, and is blowing hitters away to the tune of 10.05 strikeouts per nine innings.

Braves vs Phillies Injury Report

Team	Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Phillies	JT Realmuto	C	Back	Questionable	His absence removes a critical bat and elite game-caller behind the dish.
Phillies	Zack Wheeler	SP	Shoulder	15-Day IL	Missing their rotation anchor puts immense pressure on a struggling bullpen.
Phillies	Jhoan Duran	RP	Oblique	15-Day IL	Losing a high-leverage reliever further weakens a vulnerable relief corps.
Braves	Raisel Iglesias	RP	Shoulder	Questionable	Leaves the ninth-inning situation murky if it becomes a tight game.
Braves	Sean Murphy	C	Hip	10-Day IL	Depletes catching depth and removes a dangerous lower-lineup power threat.
Braves	Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Finger	10-Day IL	Takes away a reliable base-stealing threat and elite up-the-middle defense.
Braves	Spencer Strider	SP	Oblique	15-Day IL	Places added responsibility on the middle rotation to eat innings.

Navigating roster challenges is crucial for evaluating tonight’s betting landscape. Philadelphia is managing significant bullpen and rotation losses. With Zack Wheeler on the 15-day IL and high-leverage reliever Jhoan Duran sidelined, immense pressure falls on their young starter and a vulnerable relief corps. Furthermore, J.T. Realmuto is questionable after leaving Saturday’s contest with lower back tightness.

Atlanta is also missing considerable star power. Starting pitcher Spencer Strider is out, placing added responsibility on their available arms. Offensively, losing Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim depletes their catching depth and up-the-middle defense. Additionally, closer Raisel Iglesias is questionable with right shoulder discomfort, which could create a volatile ninth inning if I am banking on a tight road victory.

Braves vs Phillies Betting Splits

Dissecting the MLB public betting splits provides a compelling look at market confidence. In the moneyline market, I am seeing overwhelming financial backing for the visiting dugout. Atlanta currently draws a modest 56.8% of the betting tickets but commands a massive 83.8% of the total stake. Conversely, Philadelphia has generated 43.2% of the tickets but a meager 16.2% of the overall money.

This substantial discrepancy aligns perfectly with my analytical lean toward the road underdog. Sharp money is actively backing the superior pitching staff. The runline market paints a similar picture, with 65.4% of the tickets and 62.0% of the overall stake backing the new -1.5 spread for the visitors.

The totals market presents a fascinating tug-of-war. The Over is heavily preferred by the public, commanding 65.3% of the tickets and 71.0% of the money. However, timeline trends reveal a notable shift approaching first pitch. Sharp action on the Under recently surged by 20.5%, explaining why sportsbooks froze the line at 8.5 with juice strictly leaning Under.

The post Braves vs Phillies Picks & Player Props to Bet (Sunday Night Baseball, April 19) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Mets vs Cubs Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Apr 19)

Sascha Paruk — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 16:39:37 +0000

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || SPLITS || INJURIES || BvP STATS

The New York Mets (7-14, 4-8 away, 9-10-2 O/U) look to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs (11-9, 6-5 home, 12-7-1 O/U) when the teams meet in the series finale at Wrigley Field on April 19. First pitch is scheduled for 1:20 pm CT/2:20 pm ET and will be broadcast on MLB Network and regional affiliates.

The home-favorite Cubs have outscored the Mets 16-6 in the first two games of the series, which included a 12-4 drubbing on Friday and a tight 4-2 victory last night. Carson Kelly broke a 1-1 tie in the 6th with a three-run shot. off reliever Brooks Raley.

With Chicago’s Javier Assad (1-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) starting opposite New York opener Tobias Myers (0-1, 3.46 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), oddsmakers have established the Cubs as modest home chalk.

Mets vs Cubs Odds

Chicago enters this afternoon’s matchup as -140 moneyline favorites. Meanwhile, the slumping Mets sit at +120, offering a potential plus-money payout for those backing an outright win. On the runline, bettors looking for a larger payout can grab the home team to win by multiple runs at +158.

Prediction site Kalshi is offering even better prices. The Mets are currently trading at 44c (equal to +127 odds) with Chicago trading at 57c (equal to -133 odds).

Prediction Markets

Mets vs Cubs ML

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Chicago C

57%

New York M

44%

Predict

Click “Predict” in the graphic above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

The betting market has experienced significant movement since these lines first opened. The game total initially opened at 8.5 but has since been adjusted down to a flat 8.0. Interestingly, this half-run drop occurred despite a massive 82.7% of tickets and 87.0% of the overall stake coming in on the Over. Sharp money likely forced sportsbooks to lower the number.

The spread and moneyline have also shifted heavily. Chicago opened as a moderate -125 favorite before public action pushed the line to -140. The runline saw a dramatic adjustment, flipping from the Cubs receiving 1.5 runs (-190) to being installed as the -1.5 (+158) favorite.

Mets vs Cubs Picks & Predictions

While Chicago’s lineup has been swinging hot bats, the pitching mismatch points toward the road underdogs. Taking the Mets moneyline (+120) offers the best betting value today. The justification comes down to the stark contrast on the mound. Cubs starter Javier Assad has struggled mightily this season, ballooning to an 8.10 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP across 10.0 innings in two starts.

Opposing hitters are teeing off on Assad with a .300 batting average, and his command has been shaky at 3.60 walks per nine innings. On the flip side, right-hander Tobias Myers has been a stabilizing force in New York’s rotation. Through 39 innings, Myers boasts a sharp 3.46 ERA and an elite 0.769 WHIP, walking a microscopic 0.69 batters per nine innings.

Even though Chicago holds a superior team OPS (.725 compared to New York’s .653 on the road), Myers’ ability to limit baserunners makes the visitors a highly live underdog. New York is mired in a severe slump, going 0-10 over their last 10 contests. However, Myers’ 3.24 xFIP suggests his solid start is no fluke, providing a clear mathematical edge to snap the skid.

Moneyline Pick: Mets (+127 at KALSHI)

My best player prop is Javier Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-162 at Caesars). Assad’s strikeout numbers simply do not support a line this high, as he currently averages just 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings.

To clear this number, Assad would likely need to pitch deep into the game, a tall task for a pitcher carrying an ERA north of eight. The Over has cashed in 70.0% of Chicago’s last 10 games, and I expect New York’s offense to generate enough early traffic to chase him out before he can rack up punchouts.

Best Player-Prop Pick: Assad Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-162 at CAESARS)

Sascha Paruk

Sports Betting Dime • April 19, 2026 at 4:36pm

Pick

Odds

Under +4.5

Player Prop

MLB • Mets @ Cubs

-162 on Caesars

CLOSED • 04/19/2026

Betslip #1776616560793-32cf-523

Mets vs Cubs Betting Splits

Sunday’s MLB public betting splits show the action is heavily skewed toward the home team. The betting public is heavily backing Chicago to secure an outright victory, with 70.2% of all moneyline tickets riding on the favorites. The money percentage tells a nearly identical story, as 74.3% of the total financial stake backs the home dugout.

Because both the ticket count and the overall money percentage easily exceed 60% on the same side, this does not qualify as a traditional sharp vs public situation. Instead, it highlights a massive, unified market consensus. By recommending New York, I am officially taking a contrarian position today, fading both the general public and the bulk of the monetary handle.

While the moneyline action is unified, the runline splits show a fascinating divergence. An overwhelming 75.5% of betting tickets are laying the runs with Chicago. However, the money drops significantly to just 53.8%. Conversely, New York is commanding 46.2% of the total money despite receiving only 24.5% of the tickets.

The fact that the road team is drawing nearly half of the total financial stake on less than a quarter of the tickets indicates larger, more respected wagers are backing them to keep this game competitive. Finally, a staggering 82.7% of tickets and 87.0% of the money are hammering the Over, validating my expectation of early runs against Assad.

Mets vs Cubs Injury Reports

Team	Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Impact
NYM	Juan Soto	RF	Calf	10-Day IL	Devastating blow to run production; lowers team total upside.
NYM	Jorge Polanco	2B	Wrist	10-Day IL	Weakens middle infield depth and removes a reliable veteran bat.
NYM	Jared Young	LF	Knee	10-Day IL	Thins the outfield rotation; forces testing of organizational depth.
NYM	AJ Minter	RP	Lat	15-Day IL	Removes a high-leverage, late-inning southpaw from the bullpen.
CHC	Tyler Austin	1B	Knee	60-Day IL	Depletes corner infield power and right-handed bench flexibility.
CHC	Justin Steele	SP	Elbow	60-Day IL	Loss of an ace forces severe structural shifts in the rotation.
CHC	Matthew Boyd	SP	Bicep	15-Day IL	Tests rotation depth, forcing struggling arms into action.
CHC	Hunter Harvey	RP	Tricep	15-Day IL	Eliminates a key setup man, weakening the bridge to the 9th.

Injuries play a massive role in handicapping any daily MLB slate, and both of these dugouts are currently managing crowded training rooms. Chicago enters this matchup with 11 active injuries, while New York is navigating nine absences of their own.

The visitors’ offensive struggles – averaging just 3.33 runs per game on the road – are sharply contextualized by the absence of superstar outfielder Juan Soto. With Soto on the 10-day IL due to a calf injury, the team loses arguably their best on-base threat. Combined with Jorge Polanco sitting out, the lineup is alarmingly thin.

This puts immense pressure on Francisco Lindor to shoulder the offensive burden. For Chicago, the offensive core is mostly intact, which explains their robust 5.09 runs per game at home. However, their pitching staff is decimated. Manager Craig Counsell is navigating life without frontline starters Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd.

This severe structural shift forces struggling back-end arms like Assad to take the mound. To make matters worse, the bullpen is missing multiple key contributors, including Hunter Harvey. If the visitors capitalize early, the depleted bullpen will be forced to cover heavy innings, creating a prime environment for late-game scoring.

Batter-vs-Pitcher Stats: Myers vs Assad

The tables below list the lifetime stats for both starting lineups against today’s starter, starting with the Cubs starting nine against Myers. Note that Myers is a relief pitcher who will not go more than three innings max.

Cubs Hitters vs Tobias Myers

Player	PA	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Carson Kelly	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000
Dansby Swanson	8	2	1	0	0	1	0	.286	.375	.429
Ian Happ	9	2	0	1	1	2	1	.333	.556	.833
Michael Busch	9	5	0	1	4	0	1	.556	.556	.889
Nico Hoerner	8	2	0	1	1	0	1	.250	.250	.625
Pete Crow-Arm.	7	2	0	0	1	0	3	.333	.333	.333
Seiya Suzuki	8	0	0	0	0	0	4	.000	.000	.000

The next table lists the Mets’ starters career numbers against Javier Assad.

Mets Hitters vs Javier Assad

Player	PA	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG
Bo Bichette	5	2	0	0	1	0	.500	.600	.500
Brett Baty	3	1	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333
Francisco Lindor	9	3	1	2	1	0	.429	.556	.857
Luis Robert Jr	3	1	0	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500
Marcus Semien	2	1	0	1	0	0	.500	.500	.500
Mark Vientos	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
MJ Melendez	3	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000

The post Mets vs Cubs Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits (Apr 19) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Mets vs Cubs Predictions & Expert Picks for April 17

Sascha Paruk — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 14:32:39 +0000

Jump to: ODDS || STARTERS || PICKS || SPLITS || INJURIES

The New York Mets (7-12, 4-6 away, 8-9-2 O/U) hit the road as underdogs to open a fresh series against the favored Chicago Cubs (9-9, 4-5 home, 11-6-1 O/U) this Friday, April 17, 2026, at 2:20 PM ET from the historic grass of Wrigley Field.

Chicago enters Game 1 with offensive momentum after edging out the Pittsburgh Pirates in a tight 7-6 victory, backed by clutch home runs from Dansby Swanson and Moisés Ballesteros. Conversely, New York is looking to bounce back after suffering a decisive 8-2 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With Kodai Senga expected to take the mound for the Mets against Edward Cabrera for the Cubs, bettors have a fascinating pitching duel to dissect.

New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Friday’s MLB odds firmly position Chicago as the home favorite for this National League clash. The best Cubs’ moneyline is -140 at bet365, with the Mets priced as +123 underdogs at DraftKings. Removing the vig, these odds imply a 56.8% probability for a Cubs victory, compared to a 43.2% chance for New York at +122.

Bettors willing to look beyond traditional sportsbooks will find even better prices at prediction site Kalshi, where Chicago is trading at 58¢ (equal to -138 odds) and New York is trading at 43¢ (equal to +133 odds).

Prediction Markets

Moneyline

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Chicago Cubs

58%

New York Mets

43%

Predict

Odds as of April 17 at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

Taking a look at the line movement, the moneyline has seen notable action. The Cubs originally opened at -135, but consistent backing has pushed their price shorter. Bettors are evidently eager to fade New York’s road woes and Senga’s disastrous start to the season. (More on that below.)

Meanwhile, the total opened at 10.5 runs with balanced -110 odds, but the juice has shifted toward the Over at -115.

Starting Pitcher States: Senga vs Cabrera

Pitcher	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	K/9	BB/9
Senga (NYM)	1-2	7.07	1.71	14.0	12.21	4.50
Cabrera (CHC)	2-1	1.62	1.14	16.2	7.02	4.86

Senga has a 7.07 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through his first 14.0 innings of the season. He is still missing bats, though, averaging 12.21 Ks per nine innings. His peripherals are solid, as well, indicating he’s had brutal luck early on. Senga boasts a 3.96 xERA, 3.81 FIP, and 3.43 xFIP.

Cabrera has been considerably better in terms of run prevention, sporting a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 16.2 IP. But he only has a 7.02 K/9 and a worse BB/9 than Senga (4.86 vs 4.50). His peripherals suggest regression is waiting in the wings: 3.76 xERA, 3.23 FIP, 4.38 xFIP.

There isn’t much history between either starter and the lineup he’ll face on Friday afternoon.

Cabrera vs Mets

Batter	PA	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
Francisco Alvarez	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	.250	.500
Brett Baty	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	2.000
Francisco Lindor	24	3	0	1	1	6	4	.167	.708
MJ Melendez	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.500
Tommy Pham	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000
Luis Robert Jr	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	.500	1.500

Francisco Lindor is the only current Met who’s faced Cabrera more than four times. He’s just 3-for-18 with six walks, though one of the hits was a long ball. No other New York hitter have a homer off Cabrera. Luis Robert Jr has the only other extra-base hit (a double).

Senga vs Cubs

Batter	PA	H	2B	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
Alex Bregman	3	1	1	1	0	0	.333	1.000
Ian Happ	6	2	0	0	0	2	.333	.667
Nico Hoerner	6	1	0	0	1	3	.200	.533
Seiya Suzuki	3	1	1	1	1	0	.500	1.667
Dansby Swanson	6	1	1	1	0	2	.167	.500

Senga hasn’t allowed a home run to any Cubs hitters in 24 plate appearances. Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson all have doubles in six or fewer PAs.

Mets vs Chicago Cubs Picks & Predictions

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (58c/-138) at Kalshi

Prediction Markets

Cubs Moneyline Pick

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Chicago C

58%

Predict

When breaking down this National League showdown, the stark contrast in starting pitching points heavily toward the home side. Cabrera has been sensational across his early workload, sporting a pristine 1.62 ERA and completely stifling opposing lineups.

On the other side, Senga has endured a disastrous opening to his campaign. The right-hander carries an inflated 7.07 ERA and a staggering 1.71 WHIP across 14 innings, bleeding 10.93 hits per nine frames. His velocity is up from last season (96.7 vFA compared to ) but his groundball/flyball ratio is way down. In his first two full MLB seasons, he had a 1.23-to-1 GB-to-FB ratio. Early in 2026, it’s an ugly 0.76-to-1. The increased velocity has come at the expense of control, and batters are capitalizing by launching bombs.

At the plate, the Mets are suffering a severe power outage on the road, plating a full run less per game (3.40) than the Cubs manage at home (4.44). The absence of injured superstar Juan Soto has left a gaping hole in New York’s lineup, causing their team OPS to plummet to a concerning .628 away from Citi Field.

Looking at situational trends, New York is in a massive slump, winning only 20.0% of their last 10 games (2-8). They have also burned money as underdogs, managing a meager 25.0% win rate (1-3) in that role recently. Total bettors should note that the Over has hit in 80.0% of Chicago’s last 10 matchups.

NYM vs CHC Public-Betting Splits

Friday’s MLB public betting splits show that bettors are heavily backing the home favorites, with the Cubs commanding 73.9% of the moneyline tickets. More importantly, 75.1% of the overall financial stake is riding on Chicago to secure the outright victory.

The consensus is even more lopsided when looking at the runline market, where bettors are actively laying the -1.5 runs. An overwhelming 86.0% of the tickets and 78.1% of the cash are backing Chicago to cover the spread against a struggling New York squad.

The total market presents the most intriguing split of the afternoon. Currently, 67.7% of the tickets are backing the Over. However, the Under accounts for a disproportionate 43.6% of the money despite holding just 32.3% of the slips. While not a true 60/60 sharp-vs-public divide, larger individual wagers are quietly pushing back against the expectation of a massive shootout.

Mets vs Cubs Injury Reports

Team	Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Fantasy/Betting Impact
Mets	Juan Soto	RF	Calf	10-Day IL	Massive blow to run production; upgrades opposing pitching props.
Mets	Jared Young	LF	Knee	10-Day IL	Thins out outfield depth and pinch-hitting options late in games.
Cubs	Tyler Austin	1B	Knee	60-Day IL	Removes a right-handed power threat from the corner infield.
Cubs	Justin Steele	SP	Elbow	60-Day IL	Long-term absence strains the rotation, forcing reliance on Cabrera.
Cubs	Matthew Boyd	SP	Bicep	15-Day IL	Further depletes starting pitching depth, taxing the bullpen.
Mets	AJ Minter	RP	Lat	15-Day IL	Removes a high-leverage setup man from the back end of the bullpen.
Mets	Tylor Megill	SP	Elbow	60-Day IL	Reduces starting rotation flexibility and long-relief options.

Injuries play a pivotal role in shaping my betting strategy for this Friday clash. The defining absence is unequivocally Soto. Without his elite on-base skills and slugging capabilities, the Mets lack the firepower necessary to overcome early deficits, which directly plays into Cabrera’s hands.

While New York is missing its best bat, Chicago is dealing with a pitching depth crisis. Nine of their 10 active injuries are to pitchers, including key rotation pieces like Justin Steele and Matthew Boyd. Because their bullpen is severely taxed, manager Craig Counsell will rely heavily on Cabrera pitching deep.

New York’s pitching staff is also nursing significant wounds. With A.J. Minter sidelined, they are missing vital late-inning stabilizers. If Senga is chased from the mound prematurely, the Mets will be forced to turn to a depleted middle-relief corps, compounding the value of targeting Chicago’s offensive props.

The post Mets vs Cubs Predictions & Expert Picks for April 17 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Printable NBA Playoff Bracket – Make Your Picks for 2026

Sascha Paruk — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 13:34:56 +0000

The NBA playoff bracket is almost cemented
The 8-vs-9 games in both conferences go this Friday
Get a printable version of the 16-team NBA playoff bracket

The NBA playoffs start this Saturday with a quartet of first-round Game 1s. The other four series will start on Sunday.

The #8 seeds in both conferences still need to be determined. The Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic will battle for the 8-seed in the East, while the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns vie for the 8-seed in the West.

Click on the image below to download a printable version of the 2026 NBA playoff bracket. Under the bracket, find the first-round NBA playoff schedule, as far as it has been set by the league.

Printable 2026 NBA Playoff Bracket

The OKC Thunder are heavy favorites in the NBA Championship odds, listed at +125 to repeat as NBA champs.

The next section contains the first-round schedule. Click on a series to jump directly to that schedule.

EAST: DET vs CHA/ORL | BOS vs PHI | NYK vs ATL | CLE vs TOR

WEST: OKC vs GSW/PHX | SAS vs POR | DEN vs MIN | LAL vs HOU

Eastern Conference Schedule

#1 Detroit Pistons vs #8 Hornets/Magic

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sun, Apr 19 (6:40 pm ET)	CHA/ORL	DET
2	Wed, Apr 22 (7:10 pm ET)	CHA/ORL	DET
3	Sat, Apr 25 (1:10 pm ET)	DET	CHA/ORL
4	Mon, Apr 27 (TBD)	DET	CHA/ORL
5	Wed, Apr 29 (TBD)	CHA/ORL	DET
6	Fri, May 1 (TBD)	DET	CHA/ORL
7	Sun, May 3 (TBD)	CHA/ORL	DET

All times Eastern.

#2 Boston Celtics vs #7Philadelphia 76ers

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sun, Apr 19 (1:10 pm ET)	PHI	BOS
2	Tue, Apr 21 (7:10 pm ET)	PHI	BOS
3	Fri, Apr 24 (7:10 pm ET)	BOS	PHI
4	Sun, Apr 26 (7:10 pm ET)	BOS	PHI
5	Tue, Apr 28 (TBD)	PHI	BOS
6	Thu, Apr 30 (TBD)	BOS	PHI
7	Sat, May 2 (TBD)	PHI	BOS

All times Eastern.

#3 New York Knicks vs #6 Atlanta Hawks

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sat, Apr 18 (6:10 pm)	ATL	NYK
2	Mon, Apr 20 (8:10 pm)	ATL	NYK
3	Thu, Apr 23 (7:10 pm)	NYK	ATL
4	Sat, Apr 25 (6:10 pm)	NYK	ATL
5	Tue, Apr 28 (TBD)	ATL	NYK
6	Thu, Apr 30 (TBD)	NYK	ATL
7	Sat, May 2 (TBD)	ATL	NYK

All times Eastern.

#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs #5 Toronto Raptors

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sat, Apr 18 (6:10 pm)	TOR	CLE
2	Mon, Apr 20 (8:10 pm)	TOR	CLE
3	Thu, Apr 23 (7:10 pm)	CLE	TOR
4	Sat, Apr 25 (6:10 pm)	CLE	TOR
5	Tue, Apr 28 (TBD)	TOR	CLE
6	Thu, Apr 30 (TBD)	CLE	TOR
7	Sat, May 2 (TBD)	TOR	CLE

All times Eastern.

Western Conference Playoffs

#1 OKC Thunder vs #8 Warriors/Suns

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sun, Apr 19 (3:40 pm)	GSW/PHX	OKC
2	Tue, Apr 22 (9:40 pm)	GSW/PHX	OKC
3	Sat, Apr 25 (3:40 pm)	OKC	GSW/PHX
4	Mon, Apr 27 (TBD)	OKC	GSW/PHX
5	Wed, Apr 29 (TBD)	GSW/PHX	OKC
6	Fri, May 1 (TBD)	OKC	GSW/PHX
7	Sun, May 3 (TBD)	GSW/PHX	OKC

All times Eastern.

#2 San Antonio Spurs vs #7 Portland Trail Blazers

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sun, Apr 19 (9:10 pm ET)	POR	SAS
2	Tue, Apr 21 (8:10 pm ET)	POR	SAS
3	Fri, Apr 24 (10:40 pm ET)	SAS	POR
4	Sun, Apr 26 (3:40 pm ET)	SAS	POR
5	Tue, Apr 28 (TBD)	POR	SAS
6	Thu, Apr 30 (TBD)	SAS	POR
7	Sat, May 2 (TBD)	POR	SAS

All times Eastern.

#3 Denver Nuggets vs #6 Minnesota Timberwolves

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sat, Apr 18 (3:40 pm)	MIN	DEN
2	Mon, Apr 20 (10:40 pm )	MIN	DEN
3	Thu, Apr 23 (9:40 pm)	DEN	MIN
4	Sat, Apr 25 (8:40 pm)	DEN	MIN
5	Mon, Apr 27 (TBD)	MIN	DEN
6	Thu, Apr 30 (TBD)	DEN	MIN
7	Sat, May 2 (TBD)	MIN	DEN

All times Eastern.

#4 Los Angeles Lakers vs #5 Houston Rockets

Game	Date (Time)	Away	Home
1	Sat, Apr 18 (8:40 pm)	HOU	LAL
2	Tue, Apr 21 (10:40 pm)	HOU	LAL
3	Fri, Apr 24 (8:10 pm)	DEN	HOU
4	Sun, Apr 26 (9:40 pm)	DEN	HOU
5	Wed, Apr 29 (TBD)	HOU	LAL
6	Fri, May 1 (TBD)	DEN	HOU
7	Sun, May 3 (TBD)	HOU	LAL

All times Eastern.

Bookmark SBD’s NBA odds page to see lines for all playoff games.

The post Printable NBA Playoff Bracket – Make Your Picks for 2026 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

A.I. Picks for Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid, Arsenal vs Sporting CP – Computer Predictions for Today’s Champions League Games

Sascha Paruk — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:38:39 +0000

Today’s Champions League slate features Arsenal hosting Sporting CP, and Bayern Munich hosting Real Madrid
Both road teams need to overcome one-goal deficits in these second-leg QF clashes
See computer picks for today’s Champions League games from our A.I. prediction model

The stakes could not be higher as the UEFA Champions League reaches the decisive second leg of the quarterfinals today. This crucial playoff slate features a pair of massive marquee matchups, with all the action kicking off simultaneously at 3:00 pm ET.

Carrying a 1-0 aggregate lead back to London, Arsenal hosts Sporting CP as heavy favorites. The Gunners would be even bigger chalk but Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard are both doubtful to play. In Germany, Bayern Munich are also up a goal after a 2-1 win over Real Madrid in Spain as the tie moves to Allianz Arena.

I have run both games through SportRadar’s A.I. prediction model. Below, find a quick summary of the Arsenal/Sporting CP and Bayern/Real Madrid 3-way moneyline odds, followed by table summarizing the A.I. picks, and lastly the computer’s justification for each wager.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Odds (April 15)

Prediction Markets

3-way ML

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Kalshi

Bayern Munich

65%

Real Madrid

21%

Tie

17%

Predict

At prediction site Kalshi, Bayern is trading at 65¢ to win (equal to -186 odds) with Real Madrid at 21¢ (+376) and a full-time draw at 17¢ (+488). The total-goals market lists over 4.5 at 43¢ (+133) and under 4.5 at 58¢ (-138).

Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

Arsenal vs Sporting CP Odds (April 15)

Prediction Markets

3-way ML

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Kalshi

Arsenal

63%

Tie

22%

Sporting CP

16%

Predict

In London, Arsenal is trading at 63¢ to win in regulation time (equal to -170 odds) with Sporting at just 16¢ (+525) and a full-time draw at 22¢ (+355). The total-goals market projects a lower-scoring game than the anticipated shootout in Munich. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 53¢ (-113) with under 2.5 goals at 48¢ (+108).

A.I. Champions League Picks & Best Bets Today

Matchup	Pick	Odds
Arsenal vs Sporting	Arsenal Moneyline	-170
Arsenal vs Sporting	Over 2.5 Goals	-113
Bayern vs Madrid	Bayern Moneyline	-186
Bayern vs Madrid	Over 4.5 Goals	+133

The A.I. model likes both home teams to win and the total goals to hit the over.

Here is how the A.I. breaks down the data to justify each of these computer-generated picks.

Arsenal vs Sporting CP Picks

Arsenal Moneyline (-170)
Over 3.5 Goals (-113)

A.I. Justification: “There is massive value on the Arsenal moneyline at -185. Arsenal has historically dominance Sporting, winning both head-to-head meetings with a commanding 6-1 aggregate scoreline. Despite potential injury concerns, Mikel Arteta’s squad dictates the tempo, averaging 53.0% ball possession.

Arsenal generates a robust 6.5 shots on target per matchup. Gabriel Martinelli anchors the attack with six goals this season. The home side will aggressively control the paint and effectively box out defenders in the penalty area to secure the win.

The algorithm also shows statistical value on Over 2.5 goals at -113. The data shows both clubs consistently light up the scoreboard, highlighted by Arsenal’s emphatic 5-1 victory over Sporting during their November 2024 clash. While Arsenal controls possession, Sporting averages 12.5 total shots per game in this series.

Sporting’s potent fast-break transition attack features Luis Suarez (five goals) and Francisco Trincao (four goals, three assists). With both sides heavily armed in the final third, expect a high-tempo shootout that comfortably eclipses the 2.5-goal threshold.”

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Picks

Bayern Munich moneyline (-186)
Over 4.5 Goals (+133)

A.I. Justification: “The predictive model strongly backs the Bayern moneyline at -186. When European royalty collides, the home-field advantage weighs heavily. Bayern has historically controlled this rivalry, securing three victories and a draw in five overall meetings with Madrid.

Bayern outscored Madrid 9-6 in those clashes, dictating play with 52.0% possession and 15.8 total shots per match. Vincent Kompany’s squad boasts a lethal duo in Harry Kane (11 goals) and Michael Olise (five assists, 26 corner kicks). They will easily dissect a Madrid squad carrying 25 yellow cards.

Strong value also exists on Over 4.5 goals at +133. These two sides have only combined for 15 goals across their five head-to-head meetings, averaging 3.0 goals per match. But more importantly, the recent first leg produced a 2-1 Bayern victory, meaning Madrid must chase the game and leave gaps at the back.

The algorithm zeroes in on the firepower on both sides. Bayern boasts 200 total shots across 11 Champions League matches this season, led by Harry Kane (11 goals) and creative engine Michael Olise (five assists, 26 corner kicks). Madrid counters with Kylian Mbappe (14 goals) and Vinicius Junior (five goals, five assists), combining for 219 total shots in 13 matches.

With the H2H data showing a combined 29.8 shots per match and Madrid needing to push forward to overturn the deficit, the A.I. projects an open, high-scoring affair that clears the 4.5-goal line.”

The post A.I. Picks for Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid, Arsenal vs Sporting CP – Computer Predictions for Today’s Champions League Games appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Computer Picks for the Champions League – A.I. Predictions for Liverpool/PSG & Atletico/Barcelona

Sascha Paruk — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:07:07 +0000

Today’s Champions League quarterfinals kick off at 3:00 pm ET
Liverpool and PSG clash at Anfield, while Atletico hosts Barcelona in Madrid
See the top A.I. picks and computer predictions for today’s Champions League games

A pair of second-leg quarterfinal clashes kicks off simultaneously at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday, April 14.

Today’s fixtures feature two massive heavyweight showdowns. Leading 2-0 on aggregate, Paris Saint-Germain faces a dangerous road test against Liverpool at Anfield. Meanwhile, Barcelona must overcome a 2-0 deficit on the road against Atletico Madrid.

With berths in the semifinals on the line, I have run both games through Sportradar’s A.I. prediction model. The table below summarizes the model’s four picks for today’s games: a threeway moneyline pick and total-goals pick for each matchup.

A.I. Champions League Picks Today

Matchup	Pick	Best-Available Odds
Liverpool vs PSG	Liverpool Moneyline	+144 at Kalshi
Liverpool vs PSG	Over 3.5 Goals	+113 at Kalshi
Atletico vs Barcelona	Barcelona Moneyline	-122 at BetMGM
Atletico vs Barcelona	Over 3.5 Goals	+108 at Kalshi

The model likes both desperate favorites to win, along with the over in both games.

Below, I have reproduced the computer’s rationale for all four predictions.

“Best-Available Odds” as of 11:58 am ET. See the Champions League title odds for the latest outright prices to win the tournament.

Liverpool vs PSG Picks

Liverpool Moneyline (+144)
Over 3.5 Goals (+113)

Prediction Markets

LIV vs PSG Picks

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Kalshi

Over 3.5 Goals

47%

Liverpool

41%

Predict

A.I. Explanation: “Liverpool provides massive expected value as a home underdog at Anfield. Despite PSG winning two of their last three meetings, the English side carries significant momentum (WLWWW) into this clash.

Liverpool generates heavy offensive pressure, logging 182 total shots across 11 matches. Dominik Szoboszlai engines the attack with five goals and four assists. While PSG dominates historical possession (62.67%), Liverpool should maximize transition opportunities against a vulnerable defense.

With Alisson officially sidelined, the home defense is more vulnerable to a Parisian squad averaging 22.0 shots per game in this series. PSG’s high-octane offense features Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (eight goals, five assists) and Vitinha (six goals). Given the staggering 232 shots and 78 corner kicks PSG has racked up in just 13 matches, expect a chaotic track meet that easily eclipses the total.”

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Picks

Barcelona Moneyline (-122)
Over 3.5 Goals (+108)

Prediction Markets

ATL vs FCB Picks

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Kalshi

Barcelona

56%

Over 3.5 Goals

48%

Predict

A.I. Explanation: “The visitors have a distinct analytical edge. Barcelona historically owns this Spanish rivalry, capturing six wins in the last 10 tracked meetings against Atletico. This dominant 60% win rate provides a sturdy statistical baseline.

Barcelona strictly dictates the flow, averaging a commanding 63.9% possession and outshooting Atletico 15.1 to 7.1 per game head-to-head. With Fermín Lopez (six goals, four assists) and Lamine Yamal (five goals, four assists) stepping up in Raphinha’s absence, the surging visitors (DLWWW) are the mathematically sharp play.

Pair Barcelona with Over 3.5 Goals (+108). Atleti keeper Jan Oblak being doubtful significantly raises the ceiling for total goals. These clubs average 3.7 combined goals per match historically, with 37 total goals across their last 10 meetings.

Julian Alvarez guarantees Atletico contributes to the offensive output. He leads his squad with nine goals, five assists, and 44 corner kicks drawn. With two potent attacks crashing the penalty area and crucial injuries testing both defensive units, the situational data strictly points to an offensive showcase.”

The post Computer Picks for the Champions League – A.I. Predictions for Liverpool/PSG & Atletico/Barcelona appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.