• The 2026 Met Gala in New York is scheduled for Monday, and a who’s who of recognizable names from entertainment, politics, fashion, art, royalty, and more will be on the scene
• The Red Carpet coverage always dominates the airwaves and social media, and it’s set to begin at 6:00 PM ET
• Prediction markets offer options on who will be in attendance at this global spectacle

When the Met Gala started in 1948, it was little more than a fundraiser. In exchange for the price of a ticket, attendees received a meal at various venues across Manhattan. By the 1970s, it became more of a place to be seen. Annually staged at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, it boasted a luminous roster of A-list celebrities including Elton John, Diana Ross, Cher, Barbra Streisand, Liza Minelli, and Madonna. Fashion icon and former Vogue editor in chief Anna Wintour has served as the chairperson for the past three decades. With her cachet, it has evolved into one of the most exclusive parties (where cameras are allowed) on the planet.

Suffice it to say, as the Super Bowl of fashion and celebrity, it will be the center of the universe with worldwide media coverage and attention.

Name recognition is not enough to garner an invite, as evidenced by Wintour rejecting Prince Harry and Meghan Markle. Along with the increased profile from being part of the show, a public denial to those who are so wealthy and powerful that the word “no” is beyond their comprehension can accrue even more — and unwelcome — notoriety.

With that in mind, prediction markets give users options on who will appear at this year’s event.

Odds for Who Will Attend The Met Gala

Volume for this market is approaching $1.5 million, but as the day moves along, it will increase exponentially.

There are immediately recognizable names who have already stated their plans to attend. That includes singer Sabrina Carpenter, who is at more than 99% certainty in the prediction markets. Then there are other names so famous that most people don’t even recognize, they need to do a Google search before saying, “Oh, yeah. Him/her.”

Along with Carpenter in the upper-90s are actress/model/singer Teyana Taylor, Kendall Jenner, and Anne Hathaway.

Then the numbers start to drop for people who are likely to be there, but are not guaranteed. That includes Rihanna, at 85%; legendary Formula-1 driver Lewis Hamilton (reportedly dating Kim Kardashian) at 75%; Super Bowl LX halftime headliner Bad Bunny at 75% (then at 90%, then back down to 80%); and Margot Robbie at around 70%.

In the lower range are Timothée Chalamet in the mid-30s; Lady Gaga in the mid-teens; Ice Spice at around 10%; and Sydney Sweeney and Zendaya in the low single digits.

It is important to note that these percentages are ping-ponging all over the place.

Those who want to jump in can use the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign-Up Bonus once $10 in trades are completed.

As for the market rules, if the selected name attends The Met Gala 2026, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable one including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Politico, USA Today, Fox News, CNN, and Vogue. A person briefly or partially attending is sufficient. The person can make social media posts to show they are there and that will be enough to verify the result.

Anne Hathaway

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was strategically released to coincide with The Met Gala. Since Meryl Streep’s Miranda Priestly is Anna Wintour, the co-star of the film, Hathaway, must be there.

The reviews of the film can only be described as “meh,” but that doesn’t matter, particularly for a Met Gala-style event where quality is secondary to being a trending topic.

Hathaway will be in attendance.

Bad Bunny

There is growing confidence that Bad Bunny will be there.

Given the leftward political tilt, at least publicly, of those who are in the Met Gala network and Bad Bunny’s controversial persona that led to complaints about him being tabbed as the Super Bowl halftime performer, it would be management malpractice if his representatives did not steer him there.

In addition, he has his own unique, androgynous style of dress and is sure to be a center of attention among the fashion crowd. It’s a very good bet that he will be at the show.

Margot Robbie

There seems to be a “probably; maybe not; then again, maybe” footnote for Robbie attending The Met Gala. She last attended in 2023.

She doesn’t have anything pending to promote unless she’s trying to get people to stream the strange and critically panned adaptation of Wuthering Heights, which looked more like a teenage girl’s preference as to how the story would go rather than what Emily Brontë actually wrote.

Her percentage to appear is relatively confident, so perhaps there are strong and believable rumors that she’ll show up.

Timothée Chalamet

Few actors are hotter than Chalamet.

Hot, of course, needs to be put in the proper context. He checks all the boxes for admirers to think he’s “hot” looking and his career scorching with his Best Actor nomination for Marty Supreme. In December, Dune 3 will be released.

He is out and about in New York, frequently seen at Knicks games with girlfriend Kylie Jenner. His prominence makes him a natural to attend The Met Gala. But he’s clearly not expected to attend, given how low his percentage is. There is, however, an opportunity for someone who wants to roll the dice for him to make a surprise appearance with the chance of a big payoff.

Meryl Streep

The legendary actress and star of The Devil Wears Prada 2 is down in the low single digits. However, given Wintour expressing her admiration for Streep’s portrayal of her, there would not be an awkward interaction if the two were together at The Met Gala. The film has had a huge opening at the box office. If it were struggling, then maybe Streep would need to promote it with an appearance at The Met Gala. Given the realities, she will almost assuredly not be there and leave that promotional bit to co-star Hathaway.

The post Who Will Attend The Met Gala? See Latest Odds from Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Survivor 50: “In the Hands of the Fans” just completed its ninth episode of the season
• Prediction markets have some surprising names to be crowned champion of such an historic season
• See the latest odds to win Survivor Season 50, along with analysis of their gameplay

For the first time, 24 players have been invited to compete in Reality TV’s ultimate competition – Survivor. Through nine episodes, 14 contestants are gone, leaving ten left to claim the ultimate prize, and we’re tracking the latest odds to win Survivor Season 50.

In last night’s episode, a Survivor first occurred – fan favorite Christian Hubicki lost a “journey” challenge, and in doing so, was forced to become the first contestant to vote for themselves. His torch was ultimately snuffed, leading him to become the fourth member of the jury. The fallout from Rick Devens (and Christian) planting a fake idol early in S50 came to a head with many players squarely targeting Rick, who has a massive bullseye on himself for “finding” it last tribal council.

Prediction markets like Kalshi are getting in on the fun, tabbing some front-runners to win this season of Survivor. The ultimate showdown concludes Wednesday, May 20th, at 8:00 pm ET to see who the champion will be for Season 50. Fair warning, while this clearly isn’t revealing any future spoilers, the fact that prediction markets are ignoring certain contestants might be pointing to them not lasting very long or winning. The tribe, or in this case, me, has spoken.

Tracking Odds to Win Survivor Season 50

New users looking to get in on the action can claim the Kalshi referral code to receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

The supersized season is moving along at a rapid pace, with over half of the original players leaving. I noted in a Survivor odds article two weeks ago that it was downright stunning that Christian wasn’t among the contenders in the prediction markets, which made me highly suspicious that certain factions of the public know who the final 3 will be. That proved prophetic, as sadly, the show lost one of its more entertaining players of the season.

Aubry Bracco is getting the majority of love amongst traders, with a whopping 79% of the total to emerge victorious, up from 69% two weeks ago. Personally, that makes me very worried that the season has been spoiled already, and people know she’s the champion (despite the deciding vote being on a live finale on May 20th). Fan favorite and all-time Survivor legend Cirie Fields is getting the second most support at 10%, down from 18%. Rounding out the top five are Rizo Velovic (5%), Joe Hunter (5%), and Jonathan Young (3%).

Players you won’t see among the top-five choices include Rick Devens (and his hilarious fake idol), Emily Flappen, Ozzy Lusht, Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick and Tiffany Nicole Ervin. That gives me pause, and makes me very suspicious that they won’t be in the running. Below, I’ll break down the updated top contenders to see who might be the champ.

Who Will Win Survivor Season 50

Aubry Bracco

I continue to confess that this number has sent off alarm bells to me, wondering what people know that most fans don’t. It’s not that Aubry isn’t a capable player, having competed in three previous iterations of the series (best finish was a runner-up in Survivor: Kaoh Rong). She’s been a perfectly capable player, and has found her footing after a rocky beginning that saw her in the crosshairs of Genevieve.

Two episodes ago, she flushed her “hidden” immunity idol, and everyone was highly critical of that, but since then, is in better, flying under the radar. In particular, the latest episode saw Aubry mending fences with Jonathan. She claims she wants to make “big moves” which gives me flashbacks to too many past players who claim that, then do absolutely nothing. I still don’t see her as the ultimate Survivor champion, so the fact she’s such an overwhelming favorite makes me think that this season has been spoiled, unfortunately.

Cirie Fields

If Cirie Fields can finally get over the finish line and win Survivor, an entire community of fans will rejoice. It’s truly remarkable that she hasn’t got it done yet, despite competing four times (and once on Australian Survivor), along with countless other reality shows. She’s been playing a flawless game thus far, with her top boys Ozzy and Rizo in tow, and immediately shutting down any attempts of eliminating her allies.

So far on Season 50, it’s truly been stunning that her name hasn’t been brought up much to eliminate her, other than Jenna and Jonathan, very early in the season. You’d think an icon that has such experience would immediately be toast, but she’s on nobody’s radar. Even though she’s a distant second in the odds, it’s just so fun watching Cirie dominate yet another reality show. Seeing her finally get her crown is enough for me to hope it happens, so I’m wagering on her.

Rizo Velovic

The self-proclaimed “RizGod” has taken a bit of a back seat following a few episodes where his past game play and current situation were under the microscope. He often appears attached at the hip with Cirie, so it seems like they’re a package duo destined for the final 3 tribal council.

Early this time around, he drew the ire of Charlie because Rizo proclaimed he didn’t vote for his #1 on S49 to win (Sophi), which gave Charlie flashbacks to when his #1 Maria didn’t choose him in the final tribal council, costing him the $1 million prize. However, that was all a lie, since Rizo was trying to downplay his kinship with Savannah, his real #1. There was a standoff, which Rizo ultimately won by eliminating Charlie.

He’s really managed to get in good with a lot of players and is proving his mettle against top-tier competition. With the amount he’s been shown on S50, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him claim the title of Sole Survivor. However, of note, in the “scenes from the next episode” his name was bandied about as a possible target.

Joe Hunter

Joe’s gameplay could be considered polarizing in that he wants to compete with integrity and honor, and loathes the lying and backstabbing that occurs. In his OG season (48), it was incredibly frustrating for fans that he and others failed to make any moves and just played a boring, safe game, which ultimately cost him. Joe is very good at the physical aspect of the game, however, claiming his second straight individual immunity challenge of the season Wednesday.

This time around, he got into a heated argument with Rick Devens in an early episode, which reportedly was even more explosive than was shown on TV. He had another standoff with Rick in the latest instalment, where he claims personal growth for not chewing him out for the ‘fake idol’ fiasco at the previous tribal council. My issue with going all-in with Joe is that he doesn’t do anything flashy or strategic, which cost him in season 48, and to date, won’t really play to a jury that he deserves the $1 million dollar prize.

Jonathan Young

Jonathan Young is Survivor’s answer to a real-life Hercules. The man is an absolute beast, destroying challenges single-handedly. His original season was very entertaining to see him bulldoze everyone in competitions, but he lacked a cerebral social game, which ultimately was his downfall. This go around, he’s getting a ton of play in confessionals, where the show clearly wants us to go along for the ride with him.

To date, he’s surprisingly not been on the chopping block, given his physical prowess, and also his feuds with Dee and Christian. We certainly know show host and producer Jeff won’t be filling his shoes anytime, competing in the latest immunity challenge and dropping seven minutes into it.

A player like Jonathan has nowhere to hide in a game like Survivor, so I don’t expect him to make it all the way to the end. The fact he’s among the top-five choices is a bit of a head scratcher, unless, again, the prediction markets know much more than the general public does.

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The post Updated Odds to Win Survivor Season 50 After Latest Episode appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Survivor 50: “In the Hands of the Fans” will air its eighth episode of the season on Wednesday, April 15th
• Prediction markets have some surprising names to be crowned champion of such an historic season
• See the contenders to win season 50 of Survivor, along with analysis of their gameplay

Host and producer Jeff Probst has been talking up season 50 of Survivor, “In the Hands of the Fans” in a big way, promising bigger and better as the series reaches an important milestone. For the first time, 24 players have been invited to compete in Reality TV’s ultimate competition – Survivor. Through seven episodes, eleven contestants are gone, leaving 13 left to claim the ultimate prize.

Two episodes ago, Probst labelled it a seismic shift in the “Blood Moon” extravaganza, where three players were eliminated. Minds may differ on whether the ultimate product matched the promised sizzle, but in any case, the fast-paced season continues to roll on with plenty of drama to ensue.

Prediction markets like Kalshi are getting in on the fun, tabbing some front-runners to win this season of Survivor. Already, over $16 million has been traded on Kalshi, and the ultimate showdown concludes Wednesday, May 20th, at 8:00 pm ET to see who the champion will be for season 50. Fair warning, while this clearly isn’t revealing any future spoilers, the fact that prediction markets are ignoring certain contestants might be pointing to them not lasting very long or winning. I’ll also discuss some of the previous seasons, so be warned – the tribe, or in this case, I, have spoken.

Odds to win Survivor Season 50

New users looking to get in on the action can claim the Kalshi referral code to receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

In the latest episode, Dee Valladares was voted off by an 8-4-1 tally, becoming the last previous winner to remain this season. With 13 contestants remaining, hungry to be tabbed a champion, things will certainly get wild. As it stands now, it appears there’s a massive merged tribe, but as is often the case on Survivor, things get switched, and twists occur, so it’s not a guarantee they’ll remain that way.

Aubry Bracco is getting the majority of love amongst traders, with a whopping 69% of the total to emerge victorious. Personally, that makes me very worried that the season has been spoiled already, and people know she’s the champion (despite the deciding vote being on a live finale on May 20th). Fan favorite and all-time Survivor legend Cirie Fields is getting the second most love at 18%. Rounding out the top five are Rizo Velovic (5%), Joe Hunter (4%), and Jonathan Young (4%).

Players you won’t see among the top-five choices include fan faves Christian Hubicki, Rick Devens, Emily Flappen, Ozzy Lusht, Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick, and Benjamin “Coach” Wade. That gives me pause, and makes me very suspicious that, sadly, they won’t be in the running. Below, I’ll break down the top contenders to see who might be the champ.

Five Main Contenders To Win Survivor: Season 50

Aubry Bracco

I must confess that this number has sent off alarm bells to me, wondering what people know that most fans don’t. It’s not that Aubry isn’t a capable player, having competed in three previous iterations of the series (best finish was a runner-up in Survivor: Kaoh Rong). My potential theory is that people have flooded her Survivor Wiki page, see that she’s lasted 39/39, 37/39, and 35/39 days, and put two and two together and made five. While she was a force in the first two outings, Aubry was ousted early in Survivor: Edge of Extinction, but still remained on the show due to the twist that could’ve brought her back to the game (alas, she lost).

She’s been swimming an uphill stream thus far in Season 50, with her original tribe wanting her gone, and also, when she was swapped, it appeared she was in real danger of having her torch snuffed. Two episodes ago, she didn’t flush out her “hidden” immunity idol, and everyone was highly critical of that, so she essentially was forced into burning it at last tribal. That takes some heat off of her at this point, but can they trust her going forward?

Cirie Fields

If Cirie Fields can finally get over the finish line and win Survivor, an entire community of fans will rejoice. It’s truly remarkable that she hasn’t got it done yet, despite competing four times (and once on Australian Survivor), along with countless other reality shows. The last time she was eliminated, it was utter heartbreak on Game Changers, being ousted simply because everyone else had an advantage and she was the lone person without one.

So far on Season 50, it’s truly been stunning that her name hasn’t been brought up much to eliminate her, other than Jonathan, very early in the season. You’d think an icon that has such experience would immediately be toast, but she’s on nobody’s radar. That’ll probably continue too, since she won’t be considered a threat to win immunity challenges. Cirie has ingratiated herself well with Ozzy, a much bigger threat, and newbie Rizo, who both seem to believe are their #1’s. Things change quickly on Survivor, but I expect her to be covered for quite a while longer.

Rizo Velovic

It’s been a slow burn for Rizo, the self-proclaimed “RizGod”, who played Season 49 and was asked to be back on again, along with Savannah. His ability to hang onto his known hidden immunity idol last Survivor season was legendary, and shocking at the same time that it wasn’t flushed out.

His game is a complete unknown to those on the island, because S49 was taped before production began on 50 (seasons are recorded back to back), so he’s truly an unknown commodity. Early this time around, he drew the ire of Charlie because Rizo proclaimed he didn’t vote for his #1 on S49 to win (Sophi), which gave Charlie flashbacks to when his #1 Maria didn’t choose him in the final tribal council, costing him the $1 million prize. However, that was all a lie, since Rizo was trying to downplay his kinship with Savannah, his real #1. There was a standoff, which Rizo ultimately won by eliminating Charlie.

Players like Colby didn’t take a shine to Rizo initially due to his lack of work ethic. However, he’s really managed to get in good with a lot of players and is proving his mettle against top-tier competition. With the amount he’s been shown on S50, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him claim the title of Sole Survivor.

Joe Hunter

Joe’s gameplay could be considered polarizing in that he wants to compete with integrity and honor (alongside Coach), and loathes the lying and backstabbing that occurs. In his OG season (48), it was incredibly frustrating for fans that he and others failed to make any moves and just played a boring, safe game, which ultimately cost him.

This time around, he got into a heated argument with Rick Devens in an early episode, which reportedly was even more explosive than was shown on TV. In the last few episodes, Joe hasn’t caused many waves, and could be a very useful asset for someone who can rely on his vote. Still, in a supersized season that has everyone frothing at the mouth to be the victor, it would be quite surprising to see him be able to outlast everyone else.

Jonathan Young

Jonathan Young is Survivor’s answer to a real-life Hercules. The man is an absolute beast, destroying challenges single-handedly. His original season was very entertaining to see him bulldoze everyone in competitions, but he lacked a cerebral social game, which ultimately was his downfall. Thus far on 50, he’s refined his game and hasn’t been on the radar to get rid of, while it was during the tribe stages.

However, now that it’s an individual game (assuming it’s still a merge), he will absolutely become a huge target, because players will be scared he’ll run the table and immunity himself to the finale.

While he got his wish and sent Dee packing at the latest Tribal Council, there will be repercussions and a ripple effect from that. A player like Jonathan has nowhere to hide in a game like Survivor, so I don’t expect him to make it all the way to the end.

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The post Betting Odds for Who Will Win Survivor Season 50 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

AEW Revolution is back with a packed card, headlined by the AEW World Championship. MJF is defending his title against Hangman Adam Page in a Texas Death Match. This match type has become a trademark of Hangman’s career. He previously beat Jon Moxley in one to win the title and had a matchup against Swerve Strickland. The stakes are even higher because if Hangman loses, he can never challenge for the AEW World Championship again, a stipulation that has only happened once before when Cody Rhodes lost to Chris Jericho after MJF threw in the towel.

The AEW Women’s World Championship will also be defended in a two-out-of-three falls match as champion Thekla faces Kris Statlander. Other matches on the card include Swerve Strickland taking on Brody King and Andrade El Idolo going up against Bandido. Toni Storm faces Marina Shafir in a grudge match with no one allowed at ringside. The TBS Championship is on the line as Willow Nightingale defends her title against Lena Kross. Nightingale part of the AEW Women’s Tag Team Championship match alongside Harley Cameron against the team of Megan Bayne and Lena Kross. The pre-show features Ricochet defending the National title in a 21-man Blackjack Battle Royal.

When is the AEW Revolution 2026? What Time Does It Start?

Mark your calendars for this highly anticipated supercard event. AEW Revolution 2026 is on March 15, 2026.

For fans tuning in across the country, the coverage is scheduled to start at 7 PM ET. After the pre-show coverage concludes, matches are set to being at 8PM ET

Where Is AEW Revolution 2026?

AEW Revolution 2026 is taking place at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

This will be the second consecutive Revolution held at the arena, following last year’s inaugural event at the arena. Before the shift to Crypto.com Arena, the event was held at the Kia Forum in Los Angeles.

How Can I Watch AEW Revolution 2026?

Fans can catch every moment of the seventh annual AEW Revolution on pay-per-view. Along with traditional cable PPV options, viewers can turn to several streaming options including:

• DAZN
• FuboTV
• Sling TV
• HBO Max
• Prime Video
• PPV.com

Tonight’s Revolution marks the first card from AEW to stream live on DAZN. Fans can turn to the platform throughout the year to catch more of the action with AEW Dynasty on April 12th, Double or Nothing on May 24th, and All In on August 30th.

The post How to Watch AEW Revolution 2026: Broadcast Details for March 15 Supercard appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The Oscars are set for this evening at the famed Dolby Theatre in Hollywood
• With the 98th Academy Awards finally upon us, the star-studded affair will draw viewers from all over the globe
• In addition to prediction markets for tonight’s awards, there are markets available for users to trade on who they believe will attend the event

The 98th Academy Awards show officially starts at 7:00 p.m. ET, but the run-up will be similar to the Super Bowl pregame, only with the red carpet and the wardrobes being the focus. Winning an Oscar means validation for a lifetime of work. It also sends a performer or a director’s career to untold heights, giving them the freedom to work on projects they would otherwise have had trouble getting off the ground. Needless to say, it exponentially increases their paycheck.

Many traders are focusing on the 2026 Oscars odds to call their shot on who will win tonight’s top honors. But those who want to weigh in on other categories have the opportunity to do so by predicting who will be in attendance. Since there are some who have already said they will be there, it’s a relatively easy way to make an accurate selection. However, there are also some “maybes” in there whose odds to show face might be low, but there is a reasonably good chance they will appear, or are at least worth a roll of the dice for a big profit.

Odds for Who Will Attend the Oscars

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This is one of the more niche prediction markets available on the Kalshi trading platform. Still, some of the names could pop up at Hollywood’s biggest night, and it’s wise to expect a few surprise appearances. Some of those could involve nominated performers who have a reputation for being mercurial and could show or not show based on their mood. That includes the notoriously temperamental Sean Penn, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for his work in One Battle After Another.

Regardless of the pick and whether they will attend or not, new users can claim the Kalshi referral code to unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

If the selected person attends the 2026 Oscars, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable entity like Fox News, USA Today, Vogue, Billboard, CBS, or ABC.

An important note is that if the person attends the red carpet or the ceremony, they will be marked present, like signing the attendance sheet in a college course held in an auditorium.

Hudson Williams

Hudson Williams stars in Heated Rivalry, and it has already been announced that he will attend this year’s Oscars.

All together now:

WHO’S HUDSON WILLIAMS AND WHAT’S HEATED RIVALRY?!?

A quick web search says it’s a Canadian TV series about two hockey players who have a romantic relationship while playing for different teams.

Sort of Brokeback Mountain on skates.

Critics seem to like it.

Regardless, barring an unforeseen issue, Williams is apparently going to be in attendance, and his odds are in the high 90s.

Zendaya

Although Zendaya has not been nominated for any awards, she has been in Los Angeles for several pre-Oscars events like the 2026 Essence Black Women in Hollywood Awards, held just a few days before the Oscars themselves.

She was not in attendance in 2025, even though Dune: Part Two, in which she had a starring role, was nominated for five awards, including Best Picture. She is not known to be romantically involved with any nominees since she is still believed to be dating her Spider-Man co-star, Tom Holland.

However, her attendance at several events beforehand and being in the city suggest she might appear. She is currently hovering in the mid-to-upper 80% range to be there.

Sean Penn

As mentioned above, Penn is an unpredictable personality who has expressed indifference, if not outright hostility, at the awards process. Clearly, he sees himself as an artist whose validation is in the work and not an acknowledgment from random individuals who, in his mind, are not in a position to be assessing his performance one way or the other.

Still, he was in attendance when he won Best Actor Oscars for Mystic River and Milk.

This is a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his performance in One Battle After Another.

Perhaps he will attend to lend support to the director, Paul Thomas Anderson, who is seeking his first win after several nominations.

Penn is bouncing in the odds from the 30% range to the low 40s.

It’s probably better not to expect him to attend, but given the odds, it might be worth a shrugging “Why not?” investment. He could conceivably wake up in a good mood on Sunday or have something political to say on stage if he wins, as he’s favored to do, so it’s a personal benefit to be there.

Ryan Gosling

He has not been nominated this year, but has three past nominations. Two were for Best Actor after his performances in Half Nelson and La La Land. He received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Barbie in 2023. He has never won.

However, he has a major film, Project Hail Mary, about to be released (March 20), and it is already generating buzz for the 2027 Oscars. Being present at this year’s ceremony will certainly draw attention to him and the film. He is hovering at around 25% to be in attendance. He might be in the area since he lives in Santa Barbara, but he has also been on an overseas tour promoting the film.

Taylor Swift

Taylor has yet to make the break into acting as pop stars in her stratosphere, like Lady Gaga, have done to rave reviews and a nomination for Best Actress for A Star is Born.

She seems perfectly content and is undeniably well-compensated for her music and tours. And she has a wedding to plan, as June 13 is being repeatedly referenced as the likely date that she and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will say “I do.”

Expect odds as to whether they will really get married at some point.

Kelce garnered attention this week by shunning retirement and signing on with Kansas City for the 2026 season. Would Taylor want to attend the Oscars to draw some eyeballs herself, presumably with her fiancé?

She’s at 8% and probably won’t be at the Oscars. She was around 20% to attend the Super Bowl and didn’t show, so it’s a shot-in-the-dark pick that is hard to see happening.

The post Who Will Attend the Oscars? Prediction Markets for 98th Academy Awards appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 2026 Oscars will be held this evening, and all eyes will be on the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, California
• Awards season has been building to this moment, as the 98th Academy Awards will crown top honors in the film industry
• Find out how to bet on the Oscars using prediction markets for some of the top awards on the 2026 Oscars ballots

One of the biggest nights of the year is finally here for fans of the film industry, as the 2026 Oscars will be held this evening at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA. The Academy Awards are a big night for more than just the entertainment world, as bettors will also be closely tracking their picks for all the action.

Prediction markets are available for all the top awards this evening, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, and many more. Film fans looking for how to bet on the Oscars can stake positions in the markets to score payouts if their picks are correct, and with the Oscars always providing surprises, there will certainly be opportunities to profit.

Trading platforms like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and OG are available in a variety of states throughout the nation, with markets for a variety of outcomes this evening. The 2026 Oscars will officially get underway at 7:00 pm ET, so don’t miss your chance to get in on the action by making predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to unlock a $10 sign up bonus when they complete at least $10 in trades.

How to Bet on the Oscars with Kalshi Referral Code DIME

Kalshi is one of the best options for fans looking to stake their picks on the Oscars ballots, and new users can secure a bonus when they get started trading on the predictions platform. Follow the simple steps detailed below to claim the Kalshi sign up bonus and get a reward for betting on the Oscars this evening.

1. Click this link to get the Kalshi referral code DIME and download the Kalshi app from the Apple App Store (iOS) or Google Play (Android). Users on internet browsers can access Kalshi as a website.
2. Provide the required information to create an account (date of birth, phone number, Social Security number, street address, photo ID).
3. Make a deposit using one of the available Kalshi payment methods.
4. Complete at least $10 in trades on markets like the 2026 Oscars.
5. Receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus to trade on a variety of Kalshi prediction markets.

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Take a look at the 2026 Oscars odds for some of the most prestigious awards that will be handed out later tonight, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Director.

Oscars Odds for Best Picture

The markets currently suggest One Battle After Another is a major favorite to win top honors for Best Film at the 2026 Oscars this evening.

Oscars Odds for Best Actor

Michael B. Jordan has emerged as the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor after starring in Sinners.

Oscars Odds for Best Actress

Jessie Buckley is the overwhelming favorite in the markets for Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars for her starring role in Hamnet.

Oscars Odds for Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is holding strong as a clear favorite for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards.

The post How to Bet on the Oscars: Prediction Markets Odds for Oscars Ballots appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 98th Academy Awards will be held this evening at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, CA
• Typically drawing in tens of millions of viewers, the Academy Awards are the pinnacle of the entertainment industry’s award shows
• Prediction markets allow users to back their favorites for various awards, like Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor, amongst a variety of options

Hollywood is buzzing this weekend as nominees flock to the Dolby Theater for a chance to hear their name called at the Academy Awards. Now that all of the other award shows, like the Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and the Actors Awards, have concluded, all eyes are on Hollywood’s biggest awards night, the Oscars.

Last year, the Oscars were the most-watched non-news, non-sports, live awards show with 19.69 million viewers. Conan O’Brien is back hosting the Academy Awards this evening and has been preparing his material for the award show at a wide variety of comedy clubs. The award show airs live on ABC, and viewers have multiple streaming options available to watch the Oscars.

With so many great movies in 2025, like One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet, predicting who will win which award will not be easy this year. However, with prediction markets, viewers can see which movies and actors the public favors to win with real-time data, adding a new layer to watching the Oscars this year.

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New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to score a $10 sign up bonus once they complete at least $10 in trades.

How to Watch the Oscars – Broadcast Details for 98th Academy Awards

While Hollywood’s biggest names will be watching the Oscars in person at the Dolby Theater, viewers at home will have several ways to watch the award show. Those with a cable subscription can watch the Academy Awards live on ABC tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET. For those who have cut the cord, there are several options to stream the event live through platforms like Hulu, FuboTV, Sling TV, DIRECTV, and YouTube TV. This year, viewers will not need to have a Hulu + Live TV package to watch the Oscars, as the broadcast will be available to all Hulu subscribers.

• Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT
• Venue: Dolby Theater – Los Angeles, California
• Broadcast: ABC
• Streaming: Hulu, FuboTV, SlingTV, DIRECTV, YouTube TV

Check out the latest 2026 Oscars odds to see the field and make your predictions for who will win some of the most prestigious awards this evening.

Turn a Profit with Prediction Markets for the 2026 Oscars

While voting for the Oscars is left to members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, viewers at home can stake their opinions on who they think will win by trading on prediction markets. Predictions platforms like Kalshi allow traders to view how markets have evolved over time with a graph that displays each option’s implied win probability at specific times. During awards season, these charts have shown the volatility around certain awards, as surprise wins in major categories have flipped favorites multiple times.

On Kalshi, there have been several clear unanimous favorites like One Battle After Another for Best Picture, Jesse Buckley for Best Actress, and Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director. Other markets, like Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, have had less certainty on who will take home an Oscar. Traders can also get in on markets outside of who will win which award, with categories like “Who will attend the Oscars?” and “How many Oscars will Sinners win?” With so many major and niche markets, Academy Awards viewers can add a new level of immersion to their watch parties.

The post How to Watch the Oscars: Start Time & Odds for Top Awards appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 98th Academy Awards (the Oscars) takes place on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles, CA
• Now that the Oscars are one day away, predictions, projections, and detailed analysis will finally be validated or proven wrong
• Prediction markets have options for all the major awards, with some thrown into recent flux by surprising pre-Oscars awards wins at BAFTA and the Actor awards

With the Oscars imminent, the odds for award winners (and losers) warrant a final look, with potential opportunities to profit. That includes top honors like Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

To shine some light on just how competitive and unpredictable Sunday’s show will be, it was not long ago that prediction markets viewed the star of Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet, as a nearly guaranteed pick for his first Best Actor win. He was nominated twice before, and it seemed to be his time based on this performance, his reviews, and the competition not being daunting.

However, after Robert Aramayo (not even nominated for an Oscar) won at BAFTA for I Swear, Chalamet’s inevitability began teetering. Then Michael B. Jordan won at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners. Suddenly, Jordan took the lead in the prediction markets for 2026 Oscars odds as the Academy Awards draw closer.

There is great potential for surprises in every category, and prediction markets have odds for all the action.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades have been completed.

Oscars Odds for Best Picture

One Battle After Another is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture, at more than 75% in the prediction markets. The Paul Thomas Anderson/Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration is drawing almost all of the air, and it’s timely, given its theme of resistance and the long-term consequences of taking a stand. The film has the star power and critical acclaim that many voters look for.

Sinners is also timely and has far greater diversity, which the Academy has been paying greater attention to in recent years. Still, it’s lingering at slightly more than 20% in the markets, and its underlying horror theme could turn off many voters who see these types of films as lowbrow.

Hamnet is at 3%, and given its critical acclaim and that it’s about Shakespeare, there is little to lose in picking it to win with the potential for huge profit.

The easy pick is One Battle After Another, but the sharp pick is a dart throw on Hamnet.

Oscars Odds for Best Actor

Best Actor might be the hardest award upon which to make an educated prediction, given the factors listed above. Timothée Chalamet is now far behind Michael B. Jordan, who is approaching 60% on the markets. Leonardo DiCaprio is at less than 10%.

While the BAFTA and Actor Awards are generally viewed as bellwethers, neither Jordan nor Chalamet won at BAFTA, and it was Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards that roiled the markets, put Chalamet’s lead in jeopardy, and eventually led to Jordan’s rise.

Will the Academy pick Jordan despite him being in a “horror” film? Since the diversity issue has come to the forefront, he could accrue support based on that, though mentioning it unfairly diminishes his work. He has put up excellent performances for a long time, going back to Fruitvale Station.

Chalamet’s youth could work against him as well.

The easy play here is Jordan.

Oscars Odds for Best Actress

Jessie Buckley is approaching Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals odds to win the Best Actress Oscar, currently around the upper 90% range in prediction markets. This could be the opening for a Hamnet win if, as the markets expect, it falls short in the Best Picture category.

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You) is in the low single digits. The other contenders — Emma Stone (Bugonia), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) — are not registering.

Buckley is all but guaranteed to win for her role as a grieving mother who lost a child.

Oscars Odds for Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson has been a critical darling for his quirky films, often about lurid, everyday topics or based on arcane books (frequently by Thomas Pynchon). This goes back nearly 30 years to his early works like Hard Eight and Boogie Nights, and extends to Inherent Vice. This time, he’s nominated for One Battle After Another, his fourth time being on the verge of getting the statue, and his second Pynchon adaptation. The current odds are beyond 90% for Paul Thomas Anderson to win.

Ryan Coogler is at around 10% for his work directing Sinners.

Anderson has been around so long and has been nominated so many times that he’ll finally get his recognition. Ironically, it’s for a film that probably isn’t as good as past works, including There Will Be Blood. If it is any solace for him, the Coen brothers deserved to win that year, 2008, for No Country for Old Men.

Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

Sean Penn has been nominated for Best Actor five times, having won for Mystic River and Milk. This is his first Best Supporting Actor nomination after his performance in One Battle After Another.

He is well-regarded by the Academy, and his political stances draw accolades from a big chunk of Hollywood. His percentages are in the mid-70s.

Next is veteran character actor Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value. This is his first Oscar nomination after a very long career, going back more than 40 years. It’s certainly plausible that he gets a “career” award, particularly since Penn has won so many times and those awards were Best Actor.

An interesting option is Delroy Lindo. He’s not far behind Skarsgard for his work in Sinners. A recognizable face in many of Spike Lee’s films, Lindo always gives a great performance and sticks to the role without overshadowing the star. At around 10%, he might be worth the pick even though Penn is exceedingly likely to win.

Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan has made a late run after her win at the Actor Awards for her role as Aunt Gladys in Weapons. In her mid-70s and having had a long and respectable career as a character actress, this could be another “meritorious service” award for someone who never got the recognition she probably deserved for her talents.

Still, Teyana Taylor drew widespread acclaim for her portrayal of a complex character in One Battle After Another and has an interesting and wide-ranging backstory.

Madigan is at just under 50%. Taylor is in the low-30s. Before Madigan’s Actor Award win, it was seen as Taylor’s to lose. The diversity aspect, as condescending as it can be, could factor in. But that might be cleared with Jordan’s Best Actor, if he gets it.

Wunmi Mosaku is not out of the running for Sinners at around 20%.

Expect Taylor and Mosaku to cancel each other out, clearing the way for Madigan to take the Oscar.

The post 2026 Oscars Odds: Final Predictions for the 98th Academy Awards appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The Oscars are this Sunday, March 15th, at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood at 7:00 pm ET.
• There are still a few categories that do not have a clear favorite in the prediction markets, like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.
• Traders and movie lovers alike can use prediction markets to back their favorites to win an Academy Award on Sunday

All of Hollywood will be turning up to the Dolby Theater this weekend for the 98th Academy Awards to see who will take home the industry’s most sought-after award, the Oscar. There is no shortage of quality this year with a full lineup of heavy hitters from 2025, such as One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, and Bugonia.

Previous award shows have shown some light on who is likely to win certain categories, such as Sean Penn being the favorite for Best Supporting Actor after winning awards at the Actors Awards and the BAFTAs for his role as Colonel Lockjaw. There are still a few categories that are anyone’s for the taking, including Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.

As Hollywood’s biggest party nears, prediction markets are heating up as traders flock to these tightly contested categories.

2026 Oscars Odds – These Awards are Up for Grabs

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another comes into the Oscars as a heavy favorite in most categories in which it has a nomination, like Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. Fortunately for everyone else, there are a few awards where others have a chance. Unfortunately for everyone else, most of these categories are going to be an incredibly tight race.

Right now, the 2026 Oscars odds for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Animated Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film are too close to call, with no one owning a majority of any market. Further complicating these markets is the volatility experienced around the prior award shows, often flipping the favorites.

As the start of the Oscars approaches and traders scramble to get last-minute moves in, these markets could be in for a bumpy few days.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to trade on these markets and receive a $10 sign up bonus after completing $10 in orders.

Oscar for Best Actor

Not even PTA’s powerhouse film could offset the public’s opinion that the academy will continue to snub Leonardo DiCaprio. The One Battle After Another star is trading at just 8% on Kalshi for Best Actor, which tracks well as he has just one Oscar to show for his eight total nominations in his career.

The real race is between Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet, who are separated by just 11%. Chalamet was the favorite on Kalshi almost from the opening of the market for his lead role in Marty Supreme. Hitting a high of 78.6% on Kalshi at his peak, Chalamet looked like the safe pick to win the Oscar for Best Actor. However, Jordan took the lead with a win at the Actors Award for his portrayal of Smoke in Sinners.

While the Actors Award win launched Jordan to a 60% market share initially, fans of Chalamet have since closed that gap. With just a few days to go, Jordan is at 48%, and Chalamet sits at 37%. Between his win and the ensemble award at the Actors Awards, Jordan might ride this newfound momentum to an Oscar for Best Actor on Sunday.

Oscar for Best Supporting Actress

Teyana Taylor may suffer the same fate as her co-star, Leonardo DiCaprio, and miss out on claiming one of the many Oscars One Battle After Another is primed to walk away with. After being the clear favorite for weeks, holding over 70% of the prediction market for almost two months, she lost her lead at the start of March. In another Actors Award surprise, Amy Madigan was the big winner that night and reclaimed the lead she briefly held to start 2026. From trailing by as much as 64% to now holding a 22% lead over Taylor, Madigan is looking to take home an Oscar this weekend.

While Madigan holds a 47% implied win probability, and Taylor is at 27%, traders can’t rule out a come-from-behind win from Wunmi Mosaku. Her win at the BAFTAs and being a part of the ensemble win at the Actors Awards will carry weight into this weekend, as voters from both of those awards have a say at the Oscars. Madigan may be riding a wave of recency bias on Kalshi because Taylor, much like the movie she was in, has been dominating the markets and is not going down without a fight.

Oscar for Best Animated Short Film

This award pits Canada’s National Film Board, SXSW, and public adoration against each other. The Girl Who Cried Pearls comes from an Oscar-nominated team with support from Canada’s National Film Board and currently has a 30% implied win probability on Kalshi. Retirement Plan checks a lot of boxes with very clean animation, a heavy-hitting story, and winning big at SXSW, but traders on Kalshi are not as keen on the movie, with it sitting at just 16%. Butterfly tells a true story of Jewish Olympic swimmer Alfred Nakache through a hand-painted animation style that is catching the eye of critics and prediction market traders, as it holds the lead at 47%.

While this award could go any direction, the Academy Award voters favor films that stick with the viewer due to their impactful story and captivating visuals, which could spell a big win for Butterfly this weekend.

Oscar for Best Live Action Short Film

Two People Exchanging Saliva has been the top pick for this award from the start, maintaining a near 45% implied win probability through awards season. However, this European short could lose valuable ground to A Friend of Dorothy, which has 25% of the market. While it might be a long shot for A Friend of Dorothy to win, it will likely steal valuable British votes from Two People Exchanging Saliva.

With these two foreign films fighting amongst themselves, Sam A. Davis’ The Singers could sneak in for the win with a united front from American film industry voters. The Singers could be a dark-horse pick on Kalshi, with just 19% of the market. However, it is hard to see Two People Exchanging Saliva relinquishing its spot at the top of the list.

The post Oscars Odds for 2026: Prediction Markets for the Closest Calls on Sunday appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• With less than a week before the Oscars are held, the odds for Best Actor have moved dramatically
• Timothée Chalamet had long been the favorite to win the award, but now Michael B. Jordan has leapfrogged him in the betting odds
• See up-to-the-minute prediction markets ahead of the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday

In mid-February, Timothée Chalamet’s odds to win the Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars were beyond 78%. At the same time, Michael B. Jordan was below 8% and wasn’t even in second place, behind perennial nominee Leonardo DiCaprio.

However, pre-Oscars awards ceremonies like BAFTA and the Actor awards are often indicative of how voters are leaning for the Oscars. Many times, it is in direct contrast to public perception and expectations. None of the current Best Actor nominees won at the BAFTA Film Awards. Robert Aramayo got the nod for I Swear. At the Actor Awards, Jordan was a surprise winner.

Suddenly, according to the most recent prediction markets, Chalamet is behind Michael B. Jordan. It’s a two-horse race, with the other contenders DiCaprio, Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) far behind. Should the extended pre-Oscar buzz favoring Chalamet take precedence? Or is Jordan’s late charge an indicator that he will take home the statue?

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan Now Favored

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to score a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades are completed.

The Oscar for Best Actor is now a toss-up. It’s amassing heavy trading volume with more than $9.1 million already exchanged, and nearly a full week to go before the 98th Academy Awards.

Michael B. Jordan is approaching 50% with his sprint down the stretch. Chalamet, who was seen as fait accompli not long ago, is hovering around 5-6 points behind. DiCaprio is in the mid-single digits. Hawke and Moura are further behind.

The question those considering whether to jump in on Jordan or Chalamet need to consider is whether this is due to following the herd or if it is a real signifier that Jordan is the odds-on favorite to win. Of course, there are other factors to take into account.

Whether Jordan, Chalamet, or one of the heavy underdogs is the pick, their name being announced will resolve the market to Yes. The outcome will be verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

As the clock winds down, it’s important to keep track of all the 2026 Oscars odds, scheduled for March 15.

The Oscar for Best Actor is Up for Grabs

Picking an award winner is essentially an educated guess that initially stems from buzz. Timothée Chalamet was viewed as the favorite because of the widespread acclaim for his performance in Marty Supreme for several reasons, not the least of which was that he did not look like Timothée Chalamet in the film. For performers who are viewed as models, it can be harder to gain traction as a serious actor. Chalamet had managed that with several performances before Marty Supreme, which netted him Oscar nominations, including Call Me By Your Name and A Complete Unknown.

His problem is that he’s so young that he might fall into the trap that DiCaprio did, having time to wait. In some instances, that results in actors who deserved the award long before they won it — Paul Newman, for example — being left out and their annual loss becoming such a story that it ends up being a self-fulfilling prophecy to the tune of, “Oh, he’s gonna get passed over again.” Viewers might tune in to see if the overlooked performer finally wins.

Michael B. Jordan received his first nomination for Sinners, but he has long been rising in public consciousness for his work. He’s nine years older than Chalamet and just won at the Actor Awards, which clearly warranted a second look from those looking to wager on him to win the Best Actor Oscar. It’s currently a coin flip, with the initial belief that Chalamet was going to win being upended by Jordan taking the Best Actor at the Actor Awards.

The percentages are close, so there is value either way.

The post Oscars Odds for Best Actor Tabs a New Favorite in Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Awards season wraps up on March 15th with the Academy Awards
• Previous award shows have struggled to land a consensus pick in several categories
• Prediction markets are heating up as the Oscars approach, particularly for Best Supporting Actor

Hollywood’s biggest event, the Academy Awards, is just 10 days away, and every other major award show has wrapped, meaning all eyes are on who will win at the Oscars. Speculation around who will take home the hardware is ramping up now that everyone can look back and tally who won awards at preluding events like the BAFTAs, the Actors Awards, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes.

While the CCAs and Golden Globes can give an early indication as to who may be a favorite, these results have the least impact on actual predictions because the voters here have no vote in the Oscars. Some of the voters at the BAFTAs and Actors Awards, however, do get to say in who takes home an Oscar, making these two award shows that much more impactful in award predictions. That is not to say these award shows are without fault, as the BAFTAs tend to favor international movies and the Actors Awards lean more towards American-made movies.  But when the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards align on a winner, historically, it is almost certain that the movie or person is destined to hear their name called at the Academy Awards.

With just days to go until the final award show of the year, the prediction markets are finally starting to settle on who traders think will be able to add “Academy Award Winner” to their list of titles. Many are turning their attention to the Best Supporting Actor, a market that already has $3.4 million in volume on it, with all eyes staring at Sean Penn for his role as Colonel Lockjaw.

Updated Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get in on the Oscars action and score a $10 sign up bonus after making at least $10 in trades.

After taking home the award for Best Supporting actor from both the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards, Sean Penn has cemented himself as the clear favorite to win the Oscar for his role in One Battle After Another. While he was an early favorite, Penn lost his lead on Kalshi to Stellan Skarsgard. Skarsgard held nearly a 50% lead going into the BAFTAs, where many thought the organization’s European bias would offer him continued success. However, they shocked everyone, giving Penn the award and flipping the Oscars prediction markets instantly in his favor.

Following this award show, Penn held roughly a 25% lead over Skarsgard until the Actors Awards. That is when his market really gained momentum and launched him to where he currently sits quite comfortably at 73% after taking home his second major award for the role.

Further worsening the case for Skarsgard to hear his name called at the Academy Awards is Delroy Lindo getting called to the stage as part of the Ensemble award at the Actors Awards for his part in Sinners. While this didn’t move Lindo into second place, it did show the American voters might not favor the foreign film enough to unseat an actor from their own backyard.

Take a look at the 2026 Oscars odds for Best Supporting Actor and several other highly-anticipated awards.

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is primed to clean house at the Oscars, as the movie and those associated with it are favorites to win in several markets on Kalshi. Sean Penn is one of the clear frontrunners from this movie to take home an award for his role as Colonel Lockjaw. Other than a brief stint behind Stellan Skarsgard, Penn has held the top spot. Winning at the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards has led to a surge in backing for the actor’s prediction market, rising from 16.9% on February 22nd up to 76.9% by March 2nd.

With many of the voters from the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards having a vote in the Academy Awards, it’s hard to imagine they will buck their own trend and select another recipient for Best Supporting Actor. History is on Penn’s side to see a third straight win. Over the last 5 years, when the BAFTAs and the Actors Awards agree on a nominee, that person or movie always goes on to win at the Oscars.

Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

After a tightly contested, months-long battle with Sean Penn, a win at the Golden Globes launched Stellan Skarsgard into a commanding lead that peaked at 69.2%. Skarsgard rode this wave for over a month, only to watch his lead vanish overnight as international industry professionals surprised many and voted against the Norwegian drama in favor of One Battle After Another.

This loss dropped the Sentimental Value actor down to 28.2%, a far cry from his once strong lead, but still within striking distance of the top spot. However, the Actors Awards likely proved to be the final nail in the coffin for Skarsgard, dropping him to an all-time low of 13.1% on March 2nd. With an overlap in voters from the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, Skarsgard faces an uphill battle to try to claim the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

While surpassing Sean Penn remains a long shot for Delroy Lindo, he did gain some momentum in the closing days of award season. Sinners took home the ensemble award at the Actors Awards, which gave a slight boost to Lindo on Kalshi. Previously trending around 5% for most of January and February, this past weekend’s win lifted him to an all-time high of 9.8%, which has since fallen to 7.3%.

It may not seem like much, but Sinners winning at the Actors Awards shows that there is potential for a few surprising upsets that will disrupt PTA’s dominance across most major categories. With a historic 16 Oscar nominations, there is clear support from Hollywood for Sinners; it is just unclear if that is enough to overcome the impressive lead One Battle After Another has established across the board.

Traders can cast their vote for who they think will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor on Kalshi and follow along as the drama unfolds on March 15th.

The post Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn Continues to Climb appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• It’s awards season in Hollywood, and the Oscars are approaching fast, set to be held on March 15
• One of the most competitive categories is for Best Supporting Actress
• Prediction markets are speculating on the winner ahead of the 98th Academy Awards

The 98th Academy Awards are just days away, as the entertainment industry will soon hand out some of its most prestigious trophies. Although the Oscars for Best Supporting awards might be viewed as secondary to Best Actor and Best Actress, they are frequently viewed as steppingstones for rising performers, a comeback for those whose careers might be in a rut, an acknowledgment of acting chops for those who were not seen as “serious,” and a career achievement award.

Recent winners include Zoe Saldaña, who was best known for playing Gamora in the Marvel Universe, and won for Emilia Pérez.

Jamie Lee Curtis has an extensive list of credits, but she is still seen as a “scream queen” from her role as Laurie Strode in the Halloween franchise. She won Best Supporting Actress in 2022 for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Other prominent names who have won include Laura Dern, Viola Davis, Anne Hathaway, and Penélope Cruz.

For the coming 98th Academy Awards, Amy Madigan has taken the lead in the prediction markets for Best Supporting Actress after her performance in Weapons. As recently as Feb. 22, however, Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another was well ahead at around 70%. Madigan was at around 20%.

But Madigan won the SAG Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress. This has upended the odds since previous award wins are commonly seen as precursors to what the voters are thinking.

That, however, is not a sure-fire indicator. Last year, Demi Moore won several pre-Oscars Best Actress awards for her performance in The Substance, but ultimately lost at the 97th Academy Awards to Mikey Madison for Anora.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

For those who want to take part in speculating on who will win, the Kalshi referral code gives new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades are completed.

Trading volume for this market has surpassed $2 million and is rising, with viable arguments for Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor, as well as growing interest in Wunmi Mosaku.

The obvious factors are coming to the forefront with the veteran Madigan getting accolades at age 75 after a long run as a working actress, but seen largely in the background. She was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress in 1985 for Twice in a Lifetime. She lost to Anjelica Houston, who took the statue home for her role in Prizzi’s Honor.

Taylor, 35, is a hybrid performer who has made her mark as a singer, dancer, model, songwriter, and choreographer. For good measure, she’s also pursuing a culinary degree.

The 2026 Oscars odds have Madigan at around 40% to win. Taylor is approximately 10 points behind. Mosaku is in the low-20% range. Lilleaas is in the low single digits, and Fanning is not even registering.

If the selection wins Best Supporting Actress this year, the market will resolve to Yes. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will verify the result.

Top Contenders for Best Supporting Actress

Amy Madigan

In her mid-70s, Madigan should not be viewed as a “comeback” contender since she is constantly working as a character actress.

Her role in Weapons as Aunt Gladys was critical to the horror film’s effectiveness. She is the antagonist in the film about disappearing children. The children are taken so Aunt Gladys’ supernatural needs can be met. In the film, her horrifying makeup and gleeful behavior left a mark.

Still, does the recognition Madigan will receive for her long career supersede the younger Taylor, particularly as Hollywood is paying greater attention to diversity and recognizing Black actors and actresses for their work as a tipping point in close races for awards?

Teyana Taylor

The sheer nature of the narrative in One Battle After Another could draw attention, given the current state of affairs in the U.S. and around the world. Taylor and her partner, played by Leonardo DiCaprio, are revolutionaries breaking immigrants out of detention.

Sound familiar?

Their tactics are extreme, and Taylor’s intense, nuanced performance drew widespread acclaim.

While Taylor was seen as the clear frontrunner, the parallels to the state of politics and the world could lead to voters stepping back from the diversity and “making a statement” with their vote and go with Madigan to prevent drawing ire and criticism for what might be viewed as an award for reasons beyond the performance.

Wunmi Mosaku

Mosaku plays the wife of one of the twins in Sinners, played by Michael B. Jordan. She practices Hoodoo with rituals to protect her family. Her chances to win the award are complicated by Sinners being perceived as a horror film, and those who might want to lean toward diversity in their pick need to choose between Mosaku and Taylor, with the campaign for Taylor being more extensive throughout the industry. Maybe they cancel each other out in favor of Madigan.

Gauging the Candidates and What Voters Might Think

The voters are not monolithic in the SAG Awards, BAFTA, and the Oscars. With that, there will be different criteria used, so it is not guaranteed that the winners from the recent ceremonies will be the same for the Academy Awards. Since Sinners and Weapons are “horror” films and One Battle After Another is a political morality play, that could influence what the voters do.

Still, with Madigan riding a wave after her recent win, there could be great value in picking Taylor or Mosaku, particularly since their odds of winning have reduced so significantly in recent weeks.

The post Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress Are Moving Fast appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The Oscars will be held on March 15, and the odds for Best Actor are tightening
• Awards presentations like BAFTA and the Actor Awards are held in the run-up to the Oscars, and are often seen as a bellwether
• Timothée Chalamet currently has a lead in the prediction markets, but Michael B. Jordan is closing fast as we approach the Academy Awards

At the Oscars, there are some categories that are granted more weight, attention, and long-term cachet than others. One such award is Best Actor. While it is the pinnacle of an actor’s career, voters are notoriously inscrutable. With that, it is best to expect the unexpected with promotional campaigns and assertions that the winner is “obvious,” often ending up completely wrong.

Before the recent pre-Oscars awards shows, notably BAFTA and the Actor Awards, prediction markets suggested that Timothée Chalamet had the Academy Award for Best Actor in the bag for his performance in Marty Supreme. But Robert Aramayo won at the BAFTA Film Awards for his role in I Swear. He was not nominated for an Oscar. Michael B. Jordan won at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners.

Now, the Best Actor odds have been roiled less than two weeks before the show.

Factors that often come into play in the Best Actor category are not present here. There is no longtime star who has been nominated over and over but came up short every time. Such was the case (as many argued) with Al Pacino in Scent of a Woman. The argument could be made that the Academy gave it to Pacino, in part, as a lifetime achievement award. The same was true with Paul Newman in The Color of Money, when many believed Bob Hoskins should have won for Mona Lisa.

The desire for greater diversity in handing out awards and the current political climate, with Hollywood at large wading into cultural and global concerns, could favor Jordan.

Prediction markets have options to weigh in on the Best Actor award.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Actor

New users looking to get in on the action can claim the Kalshi referral code to receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

Volume is massive for this market, approaching $7.4 million and rising.

As recently as the last week of February, Chalamet’s odds were near 80% to win the award. At the end of January, Leonardo DiCaprio was slightly ahead of Jordan for his performance in One Battle After Another. With Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards, he is now in the mid-30% range, while DiCaprio has cratered to the single digits.

Wagner Moura is just behind DiCaprio for his performance in The Secret Agent. Ethan Hawke brings up the rear for Blue Moon.

If the selection wins the award, whether it is Chalamet, Jordan, DiCaprio, Moura, or Hawke, the market will resolve to Yes once the outcome has been verified by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Stay in the loop with all the 2026 Oscars odds as the 98th Academy Awards are slated for March 15.

The 3 Main Contenders for Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet

Chalamet played the lead in Marty Supreme, based on a true story about an everyman table tennis player who wants to be a champion.

It has comedic undertones, which don’t always lend themselves to winning awards. However, the heartthrob Chalamet “nerded” himself up, largely concealing his pretty boy looks that set hearts aflutter. This often holds resonance with voters as they look at an actor who holds the perception of being where he is because of his looks and shunned that advantage for a role. It’s not on a level with Robert DeNiro gaining a vast amount of weight to play Jake LaMotta, but it is generally viewed as putting acting skill ahead of appearance.

Chalamet does not have the perception of a male model who decided to be an actor and wants credit for it, but his looks can be a detriment, just as they were for DiCaprio many years after Titanic, despite every big director in Hollywood lining up to work with him.

Still, despite him being nominated twice before, he’s only 30, and there could be a “let him wait” sentiment among Academy Awards voters.

Michael B. Jordan

This is Jordan’s first nomination, but he’s received critical acclaim for past roles in Fruitvale Station, the Creed films, and others. He’s 39, but he’s been around for a long time. His public stances on social activism, pursuing diversity in Hollywood, and Black Lives Matter have raised his profile beyond simply being an actor, producer, and director. His win at the Actor Awards for Sinners boosted his odds for the Oscar.

Sinners is a horror film with social commentary about racism, segregation, and cultural appropriation. Jordan plays a dual role as twin brothers.

The Academy tends to avoid horror films and the actors who perform in them, but that’s the residue of slasher films and plots that seem to offend the high art sensibilities Hollywood strives to portray. Now, these films are treated as making a statement rather than maximizing blood and gore for salaciousness and nothing else.

It’s important to note that Jordan also co-starred in Black Panther, which was a rare superhero film that was nominated for Best Picture.

Since Hollywood is deeply involved in the cultural zeitgeist, Jordan could win based on his performance and what he and the film represent.

Leonardo DiCaprio

DiCaprio has been nominated for Best Actor six times and won in 2015 for The Revenant.

While One Battle After Another is also a film steeped in social commentary, it’s unlikely that he will win in part because the Academy might say, “It’s someone else’s turn,” “He’s won one already,” “The movie isn’t worth another award at the expense of the others.”

The performance was not above and beyond the others, and DiCaprio is almost assuredly not going to win.

The post See Oscars Odds for Best Actor with Michael B. Jordan Closing the Gap appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Sunday night’s BAFTA Awards featured surprising wins for both Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress
• There has not been a consistent favorite for either award at the Critics’ Choice Awards or the Golden Globes
• With the Academy Awards on March 15th, the prediction markets are heating up for Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Award season is in full swing and has been filled with surprises ahead of Hollywood’s biggest event, the Academy Awards (Oscars). Sunday’s BAFTA Awards demonstrated just how hot the competition is for these awards. There has yet to be a consensus pick for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress at the three major award shows that have already happened, with a new winner each time.

Typically, there is some level of cohesion among all the ceremonies leading up to the Academy Awards, but with 2025 being such a great year for films, even critics are having a hard time deciding on who truly deserves the mantle of Best Supporting Actor and Actress. With just one more major awards show to go, the cinephiles can cast their opinion on who they think will take home an Oscar using the best prediction markets.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actor

Going into the BAFTA Awards on Sunday night, film lovers on Kalshi appeared confident in who would win Best Supporting Actor. Before the event, Stellan Skarsgard looked like a lock at 65.9%, with the competition trailing by 50%. However, after Sean Penn left with the hardware, the prediction markets watched that commanding lead evaporate. Penn, now at 55%, overtook Skarsgard’s position, leaving the former frontrunner trading at just 28%. Keep up with the latest 2026 Oscars odds to trade event contracts for who you think will take home the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

These two powerhouses are not alone in the hunt for an Oscar. Jacob Elordi made a run up to 22% after winning the Critics’ Choice Awards’ Best Supporting Actor; however, that momentum seems to have stalled, with the actor now sitting at 5%. The markets on Benicio Del Toro were hot in early December as the One Battle After Another star racked up Best Supporting Actor awards from numerous smaller award shows and publications, but those wins seem to have been left in 2025, with his brief lead vanishing and leaving him currently at 6%.

Before the Academy Awards had even started, Sinners had a record-setting performance with 16 nominations. So while trading volume on Delroy Lindo has remained fairly low at 7%, he could be a value option given the overwhelming support Sinners has received.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to unlock a $10 sign up bonus upon completing at leat $10 in trades on the prediction markets platform.

Latest Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Actress

The One Battle After Another star has led almost wire-to-wire during awards season in the lead-up to the Academy Awards. Starting as an early favorite, Teyana Taylor only briefly lost the top spot and has led by as much as 62%. Even with Wunmi Mosaku’s surprise win at the BAFTA Awards taking nearly 20% off Taylor’s lead, she is still in the driver’s seat at 52%. Taylor appears to be the clear favorite for Best Supporting Actress at the Academy Awards.

Mosaku’s win on Sunday has shown the prediction markets that Taylor can be beaten. Coming in as part of the huge wave of Oscar nominations from Sinners, traders on Kalshi have plenty of reason to believe she could carry the momentum from the win at the BAFTA awards into the biggest award show.

Anyone who has seen Weapons knows they should not overlook the powerful performance of Amy Madigan. She built up support early in December and parlayed that into a win at the CCA. That win gave her a weeklong run as the favorite on Kalshi’s Best Supporting Actress market, trading at a high of 40.7%. However, she was quickly dethroned at the end of the week when Taylor reclaimed the top spot with a win at the Golden Globes. While Mosaku’s win at the BAFTA Awards moved Madigan into 3rd place at 20%, the markets are trending up for her since the loss, and she is closing the gap on 2nd.

With one more major award show to go before the Oscars, the markets are far from set, and it is anyone’s game for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. New users get in on these hot markets at Kalshi and claim a $10 bonus on their first $10 trade.

The post Oscars Odds for Best Supporting Roles on the Move After BAFTAs appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery intensifies with Paramount Skydance submitting a new offer after WBD agreed to a deal with Netflix last week.
• The WBD board will assess if the Paramount deal is better for the company, and then Netflix will have four days to improve its offer.
• Will WBD have a new owner before July 2027? Kalshi has markets on the two powerhouses fighting for control of it.

For a moment, it looked like Netflix’s all-cash offer had sealed the deal on the company acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets for $27.75 per share. However, this morning WBD’s board announced that it is reviewing a new offer from Paramount Skydance that would include the sale of the company’s streaming, studio, and cable television channels, along with paying a $2.8 billion breakup fee to Netflix and around $650 million per quarter that deal fails to finalize in 2027.

The board previously sided with the Netflix deal, believing it would allow them to get even more back by selling the cable stations to a third party. Selling the cable assets separately was not seen as the best move by all, with one major investor criticizing the gamble and calling for WBD to re-engage in talks with Paramount.

The new offer has flipped the markets for the favorite company to take over Warner Bros. Discovery at Kalshi, where new users can claim the Kalshi referral code to receive a $10 sign-up bonus once $100 in trades have been completed.

Who Will Acquire Warner Bros?

As the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount drags on, traders on Kalshi have watched as the prediction markets flip with every offer. By the end of 2025, the markets seemed to have settled on the belief that Netflix’s all-cash offer would seal the deal with a 20% lead over Paramount and growing that lead to over 50% by mid-January.

However, before the latest offer Paramount even reached the table, Netflix started losing its grip on the lead. Pressure from legislators to get WBD and Netflix to confirm the merger will not take jobs away from Hollywood and other prominent production sites may have led to the market losing confidence in the sale. The final nail in the coffin for Netflix’s dominance in the market was WBD’s announcement that it was entering a seven-day window to explore a new offer from Paramount.

The new offer from Paramount has erased Netflix’s high of 71% and brought the markets for the two media giants much closer. Paramount is sitting as the favorite to successfully acquire Warner Bros. Discovery at a 49.6% implied probability rate, with Netflix trailing behind at 40.4%. There is also the dark horse option that neither company will acquire WBD before July 2027, currently riding at 10%.

If the board approves Paramount’s latest offer, it does not mean the action is over. Netflix will then have four days to put a new deal on the table and win back WBD’s board. With the bidding heating up, traders at Kalshi should keep an eye on this volatile market.

Will Paramount Successfully Take Over Warner Bros?

Paramount Skydance continues to show that it has the capital to aggressively pursue Warner Bros. Discovery. After having their previous offer turned down, even though it guaranteed more money, Paramount may have come to WBD’s board with a godfather offer. Analysts from MoffettNathanson believe that if Paramount offered around $34 per share, they could seal the deal, which would drastically overshadow Netflix’s offer of $27 per share.

Not only does Paramount have the money to back this acquisition, but it also may have the support of President Trump. During Paramount’s merger with Skydance, the company made several concessions to the administration to help ensure the FCC would approve the acquisition. Furthering this backing, over the weekend, Trump called for Netflix to fire Susan Rice, one of its board members, or “face the consequences.” While the president has said that he would not get involved in the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount, he may have just tipped his hat as to who he wants to be the new owners of WBD.

With a strong desire to acquire powerful media outlets, the war chest to back it, and potential support from the president, Paramount is hard to argue against. All of these factors contribute to rising from the ashes of December to sitting in the lead in February at nearly 50%.

Odds on Netflix Successfully Taking Over Warner Bros.

Netflix may no longer have the top market on Kalshi, but it’s still the current offer that the Warner Bros. Discovery board has agreed to and is very much in the driver’s seat. At 41%, Netflix is only trailing Paramount by only 8% and gaining; the market is not ready to quit on them just yet.

Even if the WBD board does side with the new Paramount offer, Netflix will have four days to counter. Netflix has already laid out tens of millions in a cash offer for just part of WBD. Will they be willing to spend even more for part or all of Warner Bros? The move could bolster the streaming giant’s catalogue and firmly implant the company in a legacy studio in Hollywood, while it builds out another studio in New Jersey.

There is another hurdle Netflix will have to clear if the board ultimately sides with their offer in the form of the Department of Justice. Since the early days of this potential merger, there have been rumblings that it is creating a monopoly and breaking antitrust laws from members of Hollywood and legislators. The growing uncertainty of legal approval may start to impact this market more, especially now that Netflix has been issued a civil investigative demand from the DOJ.

If Netflix does come out as the winner from the bidding war, it may still face a months-long legal battle to finalize that deal, and that is when the third market option of “no deal by July 2027” will start to look very interesting.

The post Prediction Markets Odds for Warner Bros Takeover appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• With Super Bowl LX looming, the galaxy is about to stop and focus on the inescapable show
• A fundamental part of the Super Bowl is the commercials, with the products and services inevitably taking a backseat to the megastars who appear in the ads
• Prediction markets offer options to weigh in on who will and will not appear in Super Bowl ads

Whereas it was once the epitome of Americana, the NFL has managed to expand into a global brand with its nonpareil marketing and saturation. Even those who haven’t the faintest clue about football, like Prince Akeem in “Coming to America” — “And in the end, the Giants triumphed by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big ‘H'” — will watch the event, if not fully comprehending the game.

The commercials are vital to the Big Game, and it’s not solely due to the revenue, which is substantial. It’s due to the cultural aspect that the NFL has managed to incorporate into the game itself, complete with extended breaks and a longer halftime to accommodate it.

Viewership is increasing every single year. That’s due, in part, to the marketing. But it’s also connected to the increased number of ways people can watch through streaming and tune in wherever they are and whatever they’re doing across the planet.

Last year, the Super Bowl set a record for viewers at just shy of 128 million. It’s also customary for people to turn the game on just to watch the halftime show, as the numbers generally spike by another 6 million or so. Any company or brand will have its name recognition exponentially increase because there are so many eyeballs on the Super Bowl. Star power and clever narratives within the ads create attention within the attention, spark social media sharing, and boost the investment even further. And those who are thinking about investing through prediction markets can also benefit.

Which Celebrities will Feature in Super Bowl Ads?

The most recognizable names who have been in past Super Bowl ads are listed. Those who want to make an “easy” investment like buying stock in Coca Cola or Disney, can do so by picking Ben Affleck. He’s as close as it gets to a guarantee to appear, barring a catastrophic “pull the ad!!!” scandal from now to game time.

There’s former Seahawks star Marshawn Lynch, who has done a 180 from his playing career when he outright refused to speak to the media beyond. Remember? “I’m just here so I don’t get fined.”

Beast Mode (Marshawn Lynch), like Affleck, is in the mid-90% range.

Snoop Dogg is not just a pop culture icon. He’s also involved in the NFL with his Snoop Youth Football League and producing players who ended up in the NFL, like C.J. Stroud and Romeo Doubs. He is currently in the mid-70s to appear in a Super Bowl ad. Others in the Snoop Dogg category are Tom Brady and Kevin Hart.

Down the line are actors Timothée Chalamet and Morgan Freeman.

When making a pick, the new user Kalshi promo code offers a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $100 in trades.

Speculating on Celebrities Appearing in Commercials During the Super Bowl

Picking Affleck or Lynch seems like an easy win given the odds. But those at a lesser percentage have greater nuance. So who might or might not appear?

Matt Damon

Damon has been in Super Bowl ads in the past, as you may have heard.

Fortune certainly does favor the brave.

His crypto ad has become a meme. But since he was reading copy like he was performing in a film that he didn’t write, is it fair to blame him? He’s not a genius like Will Hunting. That’s been pretty much established. Nor is he Tom Ripley. He was never stranded on Mars.

Given the tongue-in-cheek nature of many of the ads in taking people who’ve had controversies in their past (see Lohan, Lindsay), it’s possible that Damon might pop up in an ad that takes advantage of the phrase for an entirely different product. There’s value there.

Morgan Freeman

Morgan Freeman could read the California building codes from start to finish, and people would sit in rapt attention at the dulcet tone of his voice.

He’s narrating the upcoming Steven Spielberg dinosaur documentary.

The actor will be 89 in June, but he’s still working. He’s at around 70% to be in an ad during the Big Game, but given his popularity and the positive perception as an American treasure, advertisers flock to him and offer him a lot of money for his services.

Serena Williams

The tennis legend has been a frequent presence during sporting events, advocating weight loss shots and other offerings for people to try and improve their health and wellness. Since she’s so recognizable and apparently has a positive rating from viewers, she is a likely presence during a Super Bowl commercial.

Kevin Hart

Hart does gambling ads. It’s the Super Bowl.

People can gamble on anything and everything during the game.

Do the math.

Still, oddsmakers don’t see him as a guaranteed spokesperson.

Sydney Sweeney

The actress has been controversial with her “good jeans” ad, through no fault of her own, and what was probably professional protestors and complainers actively looking for something to gain social media cred.

Advertisers sometimes like to poke the bear, as it were. Another ad with Sweeney would certainly do it.

Plus, she attracts a demographic — men — that advertisers love to cultivate. Her percentages are fluctuating in real time. But there could be an opening to profit when keeping a close eye on the markets.

The post Who Will be in Super Bowl Commercials? Odds for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, and Matt Damon appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• For Super Bowl LX, Green Day is set to perform as the opening act
• The punk-pop band has long been a critic of President Donald J. Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement
• Prediction markets are offering options as to whether Green Day will say “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” in the opening ceremony

Many musicians dive into current events with commentary that sometimes extends to outright changing the lyrics of their songs. Such was the case with Green Day, having added the word “MAGA” to live performances of their song “American Idiot” several times, including at Coachella 2025 and Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve from 2023-24. As far back as 2016, they were making their anti-Trump/MAGA sentiments known.

Still, this pending performance is directly connected to the NFL and will be held at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, the site of the Super Bowl itself. With that, the league probably made it clear that it doesn’t want performers to insert controversial edits into their songs. Nor does it want to alienate fans who are either Trump supporters or simply don’t want politics to be interjected in sporting events.

Even with that, Green Day could just do what it wants and adhere to the supposed “punk” movement, rooted in anarchy and pushing back against convention. Given that the NFL epitomizes corporate control, speaking out against it when they were invited to take part would fit right into what Green Day portrays itself as being about.

Prediction markets are debating those twin realities with a cut-and-dried “Yes” or “No” as to what the band will do.

Odds That Green Day Will Say MAGA at the Super Bowl

Prediction markets are currently split 50-50 about Green Day saying “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” when the band takes the stage at Super Bowl LX. At the end of January, the numbers were hovering around 40% that they would say it. Over the past week, that number has fluctuated like a heart rate monitor and settled at around 50%.

This is clearly a “power of the NFL” vs “Green Day makes a statement in front of a global audience” and nobody is sure what will happen with any reasonable degree of certainty.

Trading platforms give users the option to pick a side and profit from a correct prediction. The Kalshi referral code offers new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $100 in trades.

The rules for making a prediction are specific, and it’s important to understand them beforehand. Any member of Green Day must say “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” during their performance in the opening ceremony of Super Bowl LX for the market to resolve to Yes. The source must be a credentialed news organization such as The New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, and others.

So Will They or Won’t They?

Green Day understands its audience and venues. At Coachella? That crowd is not going to be into MAGA, though their well-to-do families will enjoy the tax cuts. The New Year’s Eve show? Meh. Who cares?

They play the role of being punk, but they’re closer to the Backstreet Boys than they are Henry Rollins.

Even The Sex Pistols were a Malcolm McLaren creation designed to take advantage of an opening in the marketplace.

Throwing a political statement in there once in a while, using profanity, or prancing around onstage wearing little to nothing is all part of what might be a carefully crafted and preplanned act.

But the Super Bowl is a different animal. When signing up to take part in the NFL’s marquee event, there are specific concessions that need to be made. During Trump’s two presidencies, the league has tried to be all things to all people, particularly with issues in which both sides of the aisle are so easily set off. The Colin Kaepernick kneeling controversy created a mess with the president repeatedly posting about it and demanding that players who knelt be fired. The NFL sought to find a happy medium, but not enrage either side to the degree that they would no longer consume the product.

Presumably, the NFL made clear to Green Day that it didn’t want the lyrics to songs changed to ostensibly shame people who label themselves conservative. One of MAGA’s biggest gripes — and it’s legitimate — is that they are automatically categorized in a negative light for having a different political opinion. The term “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” was used by Ronald Reagan when he kicked off his 1980 campaign for president. It’s been bogarted by Trump, but it’s been said for decades as an easy-to-remember slogan.

Making it more difficult for Green Day to continue with its anti-MAGA rants is that a substantial portion of the band’s hardcore fans from 1994 have likely evolved in their political persuasion.

Although it’s absolutely possible that Green Day will go off-script and say “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” in a negative sense to stay true to its brand, the league almost assuredly addressed this beforehand, and they have been told not to. Predicting Yes or No depends on whether you think their “punk” image will take precedence or they will lean into the corporate ideology that they were probably always a part of in the first place.

Based on that, they won’t say it.

The post Will Green Day Say “MAGA” During Their Super Bowl Performance? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The Super Bowl halftime show is an event unto itself with the performer as big a story or bigger than the teams and the game
• This year’s halftime show headliner is Grammy-winning artist, Bad Bunny
• Prediction markets offer options on the songs he will sing, the first song, the duration of the performance, and what guests might appear

The Super Bowl halftime show is unique in that it’s part of the game while not being part of the game.

It’s not just a pro football championship game anymore. It’s a global phenomenon. And that includes the halftime show, this year headlined by Bad Bunny.

Just as people can wager on anything and everything that happens on the gridiron, they can also try to profit on the coin toss, the National Anthem, the crowd size, statements made by the broadcasters…whatever. That list of off-shoot markets now includes the halftime show. Since the headliner is always one of the world’s biggest stars, there is usually a vast catalog of hits that fans will want to hear.

There will inevitably be unannounced guests who appear and perform with Bad Bunny. That too will be available on prediction markets.

This accords opportunities for everyone to take part in making predictions and profiting from their picks, not just for football fans who want to bet on the Super Bowl LX MVP.

How to Legally Bet on the Super Bowl Halftime Show

While wagering sites are not yet available in all 50 states, prediction markets offer another avenue for those in several states currently on the outside looking in. It allows picks on sports, news, entertainment, politics and events which are a combination of all of the above, like the Super Bowl.

Just as wagering was a hotly contested debate before it was finally made legal in many states, there is a persistent back and forth about prediction markets. The inevitability is self-evident, but Congress will have its say.

For the Super Bowl halftime show, people can look at Bad Bunny, consider past NFL constraints (or attempted constraints) on what the performer can and cannot say and do, and speculate on what will happen.

The league is very conscious of content in an effort not to alienate any fan regardless of their beliefs and political slant. They particularly do not want to draw the ire of the Sports Fan in Chief in the White House, who will not be shy about expressing his opinion in stark terms via his social media platform and doing so in real time.

It is important to factor these things in when looking at the prediction markets.

Those who want to take part can do so using the Kalshi referral code. New participants can get a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $100 in trades.

Super Bowl LX Halftime Prediction Markets

What songs will be played at the halftime show?

Although Bad Bunny’s style is not to everyone’s taste with the gender bending and political commentary, he’s set to headline the Super Bowl LX halftime show in front of a sold out Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco. Claims he does not speak English makes it more difficult for him to alienate as many people as he would otherwise if he turned his appearance into biting social commentary.

He just won a Grammy for Album of the Year, Debí Tirar Más Fotos with the song DtMF. So, it’s safe to say DtMF will be part of his repertoire. That is currently above 90% on the markets. DÁKITI is less certain, but it is widely considered to be his biggest hit to date and is lingering below 60%. That might be a wise investment.

How long will the halftime show last?

Although the NFL and the teams playing in the Super Bowl understand that it is not a “normal” game, the game itself does maintain primary importance. Apart from the Super Bowl, halftime is technically 15 minutes, but by the time the teams get into the locker room, take a break, use the restroom, and meet with coaches about in-progress changes for the second half, they need to get ready to head back out and warm up.

The Super Bowl is vastly different. Coaches will try to prepare for it during the two weeks before the game, but it’s an adjustment.

Occasionally, even the random player wants to see the show as Bengals kicker Evan McPherson did when he went out to see Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar, and 50 Cent in 2022.

Cincinnati’s coaching staff was unhappy that McPherson did that, but he’s the kicker. Who cares?

The show generally lasts long enough to make it worth the performer’s while to be there. So 15 minutes is customary.

Ten minutes is a gimme. When it gets to 13 minutes, it’s hovering in the mid-70s range. Then it drops precipitously to the low 40s at 14 minutes.

The NFL might want to get him off as quickly as possible for fear of him saying something controversial in English. So it might be better to predict the show lasting on the lower end.

Bad Bunny’s halftime opener?

Tití Me Pregunto is the heavy favorite at around 60%. The song is about his penchant for having many girlfriends and his aunt lambasting him about it. With the NFL conscious of its image and wanting to stay as reasonably family-friendly as possible (within context), this is innocuous enough considering the potential for Bad Bunny to say something about ICE raids and the fraught political climate.

Other songs like BAILE INoLVIDABLE and LA MuDANZA are around 10% each.

This is very difficult to predict.

Who will perform at the Big Game?

The surprise guests are always among the most interesting parts of the halftime show.

While the league does its best to keep this under wraps, social media has made it harder and harder to maintain secrecy with the likelihood that these stars will be spotted or served by people who perform technical functions, are working at hotels, airports, and other areas where the league cannot keep everything within its bubble.

The markets have Tainy at over 70% to appear with Bad Bunny. It makes sense since he is a producer and songwriter who has worked extensively with the headliner in the past.

Cardi B is in the mid-50s and it makes sense for her to appear since her fiancé Stefon Diggs is playing in the game for the Patriots, so she’s going to be there. Down the line are Karol G and Marc Anthony, both near 30%.

Ricky Martin is at around 25%. Shakira is hovering at 20%.

All are likely to want the forum to perform and express their outrage at what is going on in the U.S. and having the biggest stage possible to do it.

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• Super Bowl commercials have become an event unto themselves, almost entirely separate from the game
• Non-sports fans tune in just to see the ads and the halftime show, all part of the NFL’s total takeover of sports and entertainment
• The phenomenon of Super Bowl commercials has become so monolithic that prediction markets are available for which companies and products will be featured

Saturation and indifference made the early Super Bowls a hard sell for the NFL and AFL. In those times, there were only three networks available and a few local stations, plus public television, to choose from. There was no specifically looking for what you wanted to see on a whim and hitting a button to watch it. In short, it was “You’ll watch what we show you and you’ll like it!”

As the game grew in stature and the ratings got better and better, advertisers understood the greater the reach, the bigger the payoff. The league obliged by extending the amount of time spent on breaks and staged a half-hour halftime show with the biggest stars it could find to be headliners.

Now, the commercials attract viewers who wouldn’t know a football from a tennis racket; who couldn’t differentiate Tom Brady from an entrepreneur with a podcast whose product has a 50/50 shot of being a Ponzi scheme.

Given the global viewership, companies know the attention and potential value of advertising during the Super Bowl. It’s costly, but to quote Matt Damon, fortune favors the brave.

With a seemingly endless array of options to invest and profit, why not add Super Bowl commercials to the mix? Often, it’s less predictable who will pop up in a commercial advertising which product than the results of the game itself!

Which Brands Will Advertise During Super Bowl LX

Prediction markets offer options as to which companies and products will be featured.

In some instances, it’s easy to predict Super Bowl commercials. A rule of thumb is to look at which companies have become so ubiquitous during NFL contests that they will automatically be featured in an ad during the biggest game of the year. Progressive falls into that category. So does Dunkin’.

And who can forget our introduction to Jordon Hudson, even though we didn’t know it, in a Dunkin’ ad featuring Ben Affleck and Bill Belichick?

It makes little sense to trade on those companies being featured since there’s little room for profit. However, lesser known entities and controversial products could appear. Some might be viewed as too risqué for the league’s family-friendly objectives.

For those looking to take part, a Kalshi promo code gives new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus once they have completed $100 in trades.

If a selected product, company, or entity appears during the official national 2026 broadcast of the game, the market will resolve to Yes. The sourcing must be from a credentialed news organization like the Associated Press, Sports Business Journal, The Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, CBS Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, Bloomberg News, and others. There is nuance such as a qualifying advertisement identifying a brand. For example, “The opening kickoff is brought to you by…” would qualify. It is essential to grasp the full rules when making a prediction.

Obvious and More Obscure Options for Super Bowl Commercials

Those who want to come as close as possible to guaranteeing they are correct can choose Pepsi or T-Mobile. As part of a recent advertising blitz, Liquid Death is trying to wedge itself in to the water market.

Yes. It’s water. And it is currently at 99¢ to have an ad during the Big Game.

Other products are less guaranteed.

Coinbase

This would be audacious, if nothing else. After the previously alluded to Matt Damon narrated “fortune favors the brave” ad which pushed Crypto.com hard and is now a punchline after the FTX bankruptcy cost investors a fortune, the digital currency has rebounded nicely. It’s certainly here to stay if, for no other reason, it being reduced to rubble would likely trigger another Depression.

It is probably a reasonable investment for a Super Bowl ad if not an investment for the product itself. It’s in the mid-60s percentage wise to show a commercial during the game.

Amazon Prime

Amazon is partners with the NFL, showing its lucrative Thursday Night Football, and is a fundamental part of commerce all over the world. A 30-second Super Bowl ad reportedly costs up to $10 million. Amazon Prime is hovering around near 60% of buying time during the Big Game.

That’s tip money for Jeff Bezos. With the number of people who might sign up for Amazon Prime defraying the expense, it’s a no-lose situation for Amazon.

Netflix

Netflix is an iffier proposition on the current markets, in the lower 40s range for showing an ad.

Still, given the investment into new shows and its recent acquisition of Warner Bros. Discover while Paramount Skydance is pursuing a hostile takeover of Warner, it could pop up in at least a perfunctory ad for its streaming service.

Blue Chew

This is a dual-edged sword for the NFL.

Blue Chew is something that one of the league’s primary demographics — men —wants or need. But it could be off-putting to another key market: conservative religious people. Some of the ads for Blue Chew are more over-the-top than others discussing intimate matters. But if they make it funny and relatively innocuous, then it could pop up (heh) at some point.

The odds are currently near 10% for Yes.

Yeezy

Kanye West, entertainer and owner of the fashion company, made a public apology for past behaviors and statements that were offensive to just about everyone, but particularly Jewish people. Needless to say, use of antisemitic tropes and praise for some of history’s greatest monsters is not going to endear anyone to the public, particularly the buying public.

While people are often open to accepting apologies, there is also the small matter of gauging how sincere that apology is. Kanye’s income streams could be drying up and he simply needs to boost his bank account and at least try to get back into the mainstream after years of objectively absurd behavior.

Yeezy is at around 10% for a Super Bowl ad. It’s difficult to see one appearing during the Super Bowl.

The post Prediction Markets Odds for Super Bowl Commercials appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Super Bowl LX is set with the upstart Patriots battling the hard-hitting Seahawks
• The Super Bowl is always a global (if not interstellar) phenomenon with a myriad of stars from all genres set to attend
• Prediction markets allow users to trade on odds for which prominent figures will be in attendance at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA

The Super Bowl grows in its reach every single year. It has expanded from an exhibition with a preordained outcome in Super Bowl I to the center of the universe in Super Bowl LX. And it’s only getting bigger. In that first Super Bowl before the NFL-AFL merger, the NFL’s Packers led by Vince Lombardi played the AFL’s Chiefs.

The AFL was still considered to be second class with Lombardi at the forefront of dismissing its challenge to NFL supremacy. The on-field result was predictable with a Packers 35-10 blowout. The stadium was not filled to capacity and the game was shown on two channels simultaneously to mostly indifferent reviews.

It was only when Joe Namath’s Jets, of all teams, beat the Don Shula-led Colts in Super Bowl III that the AFL was taken seriously as a competitor and the plans for a merger, already in place, went into overdrive.

Now, the world stops for the Super Bowl. Those looking to capitalize on it by selling their products and services to coincide with it refer to it as “The Big Game” in a wink and nod agreement with the NFL. Commercials become something to look forward to, in many instances for non-football fans, far more than the game. The halftime show is fodder for social media madness from the personal and political perspective. And a key part of the pageantry in which celebrities from entertainment, business, politics, and sports will attend.

Who Will be at the Super Bowl?

As the Super Bowl approaches, prediction markets are speculating which recognizable figures will be in attendance. This is probably one of the most diverse groups imaginable for any event. Overt partisanship will be limited to rooting for the Patriots (or against them, out of habit) or the Seahawks.

Some of the recognizable names available on the markets include the following:

Jason Kelce

The “other” Kelce who is frequently overshadowed by his brother (guy named Travis; engaged to some pop star), cobbled out a future Pro Football Hall of Fame career as a center for the Eagles. As an analyst for ESPN, Kelce is approaching 80% on the markets and is all-but guaranteed to be in attendance.

Lionel Messi

Global soccer/fútbol star Messi is in floating in the mid-40% area for his probability to attend the Super Bowl. Messi is currently playing for Inter Miami in Major League Soccer.

With the World Cup approaching, being played in the U.S., and Messi’s home country Argentina looking to defend its title, he is almost assuredly going to play, making it a natural that he attend the Super Bowl again. He could also pop up in a commercial as he has in the past.

Elon Musk

Musk, vying with Jeff Bezos to be the real-life Lex Luthor, is at nearly 40% for Super Bowl attendance prediction markets. While Musk has largely abandoned the Bay Area as a base of operations, his ownership of X and status as the richest person in the world makes him an obvious potential attendee.

Taylor Swift and Others

Swift is approaching 20%.

For obvious reasons, she’s connected to the Kelces and the NFL, though she has repeatedly demurred from being the star of the halftime show. It’s possible if not outright likely that she will be in a commercial.

Other names within 10-20% are U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, former First Lady Jill Biden, and former President Barack Obama.

President Donald J. Trump might want Vance to be the face of the administration at the Super Bowl, particularly with the current siege they are under for contentious policies. Vance, now an expectant father, might receive some leeway and not be viciously booed if he does show.

For the record, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem is below 10%, as is President Trump.

Suffice it to say that Sec. Noem will not be there unless the administration tries to use the event for ICE raids.

When deciding on a selection, Jason Kelce is a layup since it’s his job to talk football, he works at ESPN, and he loves attention as much if not more than his brother does. For those who are looking for someone who has a lower percentage to attend, but has various motivations to be there, Vice President Vance is worth a look.

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