• The Kentucky Derby kicks off the Triple Crown on Saturday from Churchill Downs. Start time is 6:57 pm ET.
• Which horse will reign supreme on the 1 1/4 mile track?
• My Horse Racing odds and picks, plus what to watch out for this Saturday evening can be found below.

The first race of the Triple Crown kicks off later today with the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby. It is indeed the most exciting two minutes of television and a chance to hear the famed “And down the stretch they come…”.

I’ll be backing several different horses and picks for Saturday. Read below for all the reasons why those selections stand out.

Latest Kentucky Derby Odds To Win

This race is expected to deliver plenty of intrigue and, of course, ways to get more wagers to win more dollars. There are quite a few options, along with more horse racing betting news. With a mere few dollars, one can spread those wagers around.

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Kentucky Derby Picks To Win

Pick 1: Emerging Market at 10:1
Pick 2: Chief Wallabee at 8:1

The dilemma with the Kentucky Derby odds is that when the posts came out, Renegade (opened 4:1) was placed on the rail. It was something that scared bettors out of their minds. Some other trends did as well, including a chillier than usual Saturday in May (forecast is 59 degrees with a slight Northerly wind). With blazing speed not entirely expected, the track itself will still be rated as fast.

Taking a bit of swing here is in our DNA. Emerging Market was thrown into the Louisiana Derby (1 3/16 miles) and shocked the field by wearing down the more experienced Pavlovian to win by a head. It was only Emerging Markets’ second start. Stamina and distance will not be an issue as the horse has looked great when it comes to his early gallops. Again, one will hear lots about horses like Commandment and So Happy (and rightfully so). However, kicking up for potential is a theme here.

Next up is Chief Wallabee, who carries their own risk in the 20-horse field of three-year-olds. He barely lost to Commandment twice, and the old adage of any given Saturday rings true here. This horse has enjoyed Churchill Downs this week, and the early pace could work to his advantage late.

Kentucky Derby Place And Show Picks

Place Pick: Commandment at 7:2
Show Pick: So Happy at 5:2

When looking at the field, there is a lack of coherence compared to previous years. We have seen too often where sudden horses who shorten on the moneyline get nipped down the stretch. This could be the case for both of these horses. Commandment has pulled off a dramatic win or two, but the tables may be turned here. So Happy showed a 100 speed rating in his last race, but Churchill Downs is a different beast.

Okay, these wagers are somewhat conservative in nature. Do not worry much about a pop-up shower, as the drying trend is expected to start later in the afternoon. Commandment suits the race, but riders seem to come and go. Then, there is So Happy, who can keep up at the 1 1/4 mile distance but may not have enough to win. That 1/8 mile difference from the Santa Anita Derby might become prophetic.

A Few Exotic Options

Kentucky Derby 2025 odds taught us a few lessons here. Exotic picks are a nice way of saying horse racing parlays. Adding these as box picks allows us to still win even if the order is not correct. The horses just have to finish within the parameter. A trifecta box means win-place-show without order. The superfecta would involve four horses. However, one of our riskier wagers goes for the Exacta first, and then we introduce the Key Box. The Key must finish first, and the box part order does not matter.

Exotic Pick 1:

• Chief Wallabee (Win) and Commandment (Place)
• This pays out at 48:1 for the Exacta.

Exotic Pick 2:

• Emerging Market with Renegade and Commandment
• Emerging Market is our Key with the other two horses as the box
• This pays out 6x the wager

Good luck!

The post Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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The post DraftKings Promo Code for MNF Scores $200 Jets-Dolphins, Broncos-Bengals Bonus appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• I have made some of my best bets for the 2025 Belmont Stakes on Saturday
• Clever Again is my top pick to win the second leg of the Triple Crown
• Read below for my Belmont Stakes winner pick, place and show bets, along with odds

The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set for Saturday, June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is racing here as is Preakness Stakes winner Journalism. Finally, that battle in the “Test Of The Champion” should get the bettors and fans excited.

As always, I’ve done the research and analysis to bring you my top picks for the win, place, and show bets. Let’s dig in and see who has the best chance to win at Saratoga.

Odds to Win 2025 Belmont Stakes

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Odds as of June 6th at FanDuel. Grab a FanDuel promo code to bet on the Belmont, or check out other Horse Racing betting apps.

Best Bet to Win the Belmont Stakes: Sovereignty (+500)

The first thing that has to be mentioned is that this test is a 1/4 mile shorter. Saratoga is only a 1.25-mile track whereas Belmont Park is 1.5 miles. Now, this makes a difference in picks. My top pick to win the 2025 Belmont is Sovereignty, trained by William I. Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado. This well-rested colt has shown some great talent. Obviously, winning the Kentucky Derby helps, but he has three firsts and two seconds in six career starts.

While some pundits are amazed by new horse-racing metrics (and yes, some are really useful), Saratoga Springs represents a different animal. Again, closing speed is one thing, but a horse truly has to be able to run in anything. Trending weather conditions do suggest some brighter skies come race time, which should be around 7:04 p.m. ET on FOX.

While the horse sometimes starts a bit slow, I expect Sovereignty to pick up the pace right as the race turns for home. His speed is not at the level of Secretariat (yes a descendant), but that acceleration in the mud at the Kentucky Derby was hard to ignore. An extra 1/8 mile might be of benefit to the horse here.

At 5-1 odds, one has to be surprised that the horse is not closer to +200 like he was early on Friday.

Belmont Stakes Place Bet Prediction: Baeza (+350)

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Although I’m not picking him to snag the victory, it’s hard to ignore the talent and consistency of Baeza, the Kentucky Derby third-place horse and Friday morning co-favorite for the Belmont.

Baeza is a bit of a wildcard, but bettors and experts picked up on his potential to gallop quickly around this 1.25-mile track. Down the stretch at the Derby, Baeza was the fastest horse by far. He got caught behind too many horses early, and by the time Baeza got his shot, it was too late.

The key is staying a little closer at the start. If Baeza is not too far off at the final turn, then look out. He is a horse who can match Sovereignty and Journalism when it counts.

While his 7-2 odds don’t offer as much value for a win bet, Baeza is a great sandwich bet for exotics like the trifecta, especially.

Belmont Stakes Show Best Bet: Journalism (-125)

For my show bet, I’m picking Journalism, trained by Michael W. McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli.

Journalism has hit the board in all seven of his career starts, with four wins (Preakness) and a second-place finish in the Derby. His 108 Beyer Speed Figure from the San Felipe Stakes is the quickest of any three-year-old this season.

If the track is dry, Journalism really has a chance. The only slight question is that 1.25 mile track. How dry will it be?

I expect Journalism to hang back a little but try to come on strong before the head for home. Then, it all comes down to that closing extra 1/8 mile. The horse can do it. It is only a question if.

At 4-5 odds, Journalism is obviously the favorite to win and could pull it off. However, warming track conditions could play an unexpected role Saturday evening.

Belmont Longshots to Watch

While my top picks represent the most likely winners, there are at least a few more bets to consider in those more exotic wagers.

• Rodriguez (8-1): Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike Smith this lightly-raced horse missed the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to a foot issue. He won the Wood Memorial, though. His overall speed makes him one to watch for. Can he keep that pace?
• Hill Road (18-1): A horse that could place or show at plus money. Won the Peter Pan Stakes and though this is a step up, Hill Road can hang with the speed.
• Crudo (17-1): One of his owners is Bobby Flay. Could Crudo cook up any surprises for the Belmont? It is at least possible

Last Thoughts on the Belmont

The 2025 Belmont Stakes finally gets the Kentucky Derby rematch, but expect a twist or two in this race. This is one of those races where knowing the track and what horses are in good form is especially essential.

My top picks – Sovereignty to win, Baeza to place, and Journalism to show, could be a good start. Get creative with those and the longshots I mentioned above for your exotic bets, and the key with a field like this is to spread the smaller wagers around.

Always bet responsibly and enjoy the rush of the 157th Belmont Stakes. Good luck!

The post Belmont Stakes Odds, Picks, Predictions & Best Bets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• I’ve made my best bets for the 2025 Preakness Stakes on Saturday
• Clever Again is my top pick to win the second leg of the Triple Crown
• Read below for my Preakness Stakes winner pick, place and show bets, along with odds

The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. While Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty is skipping the second leg of the Triple Crown, a competitive field of nine horses will still battle it out for a chance at glory in the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

As always, I’ve done the research and analysis to bring you my top picks for the win, place, and show bets. Let’s dive in and see who I think has the best chance to shine at Pimlico.

Best Bet to Win the Preakness Stakes: Clever Again (+500)

My top pick to win the 2025 Preakness is Clever Again, trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Jose Ortiz. This lightly raced colt has shown serious talent in his three career starts, with two wins and a second-place finish.

Clever Again’s most recent victory in the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park was particularly impressive. He led from start to finish and posted a blistering 101 Beyer Speed Figure, making him one of only two horses in the Preakness field with a triple-digit speed figure.

While he’s shown a preference for front-running in his previous races, I expect Clever Again to sit just behind the leaders in the Preakness, particularly Goal Oriented, and make his move at the top of the stretch. With his improving form and strong pedigree (he’s a son of American Pharoah), Clever Again could be peaking at just the right time.

At generous 5-1 odds, Clever Again offers excellent value for bettors looking for a solid win bet.

Preakness Stakes Place Bet Prediction: Journalism (+160)

Although I’m not picking him to win, it’s hard to ignore the talent and consistency of Journalism, the Kentucky Derby runner-up and morning-line favorite for the Preakness.

Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, Journalism has hit the board in all six of his career starts, with three wins and a second-place finish in the Derby. His 108 Beyer Speed Figure from the San Felipe Stakes is the fastest of any three-year-old this season.

The two-week turnaround from the Derby is a slight concern, but Journalism’s running style should be a perfect fit for the Preakness. With several front-runners likely to set a hot early pace, Journalism can stalk just off the leaders and use his strong finishing kick to secure a top-two finish.

While his 8-5 odds don’t offer much value for a win bet, Journalism is a solid choice for your place bets and a must-use in exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta.

Preakness Stakes Show Best Bet: River Thames (+450)

For my show bet, I’m going with River Thames, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. This colt has been remarkably consistent in his four career starts, with two wins, a second, and a third, never finishing more than a length behind the winner.

River Thames skipped the Kentucky Derby to focus on the Preakness, a move that could pay dividends with the extra rest and preparation. He’s posted Beyer Speed Figures between 92-95 in all of his races, suggesting he has the talent to compete at this level.

I expect River Thames to sit third or fourth early in the race, just behind the leaders. This running style should give him an advantage over the deep closers when they turn for home, and his consistency makes him a solid choice to round out your trifecta or superfecta tickets.

At 9-2 odds, River Thames offers good value for a show bet and could even surprise with a second-place finish if the pace scenario plays out in his favor.

Preakness Longshots to Watch

While my top picks represent the most likely winners, there are a few longshots worth considering for your exotic wagers or if you’re feeling bold:

• Goal Oriented (6-1): Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, this lightly-raced colt has won both of his career starts and could be the pacesetter from the rail post position.
• Gosger (20-1): A closer who won the Lexington Stakes last time out, Gosger could benefit from a hot early pace and sneak into the top three at a big price.
• American Promise (15-1): Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, this colt faded in the Kentucky Derby but could rebound with a better trip in the Preakness.

Odds to Win Preakness Stakes 2025

Odds as of May 17 at FanDuel. Grab a FanDuel promo code to bet on Preakness, or check out other Horse Racing betting apps.

Final Thoughts on Preakness

The 2025 Preakness Stakes might not have the buzz of a Triple Crown contender, but it’s still going to be an exciting and competitive race. If you pay attention to horses with the right running styles, solid form, and good odds, you can set yourself up for a nice payday at the races.

My top picks – Clever Again to win, Journalism to place, and River Thames to show – represent a solid foundation for your Preakness wagers. Consider using them in combination with some of the longshots I mentioned above for your exotic bets, and don’t be afraid to spread your money around a bit in what looks like an open race.

As always, remember to bet responsibly and enjoy the thrill of the 150th Preakness Stakes. Good luck!

The post Best Bets for Preakness Stakes: Picks for Win, Place & Show appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The field is set for the 150^th running of the Preakness Stakes. It’s time to check out the horses, jockeys and trainers that will be competing at Pimlico Race Course on Saturday. I’ll be going over some of my favorite Preakness exotic bets, which you can make on FanDuel.

Last year, it was Seize the Grey who won the second leg of the Triple Crown. A $2 win bet paid $21.60, with the larger payouts coming from exotic bets. There are just nine horses in the field, so you’re chances to hit a trifecta or superfecta are much better than the Kentucky Derby.

Sovereignty won the Run for the Roses, but the owners has decided to forgo the chance at a Triple Crown. It’s too quick of a turnaround horse that gave Godolphin their first Kentucky Derby victory. However, we still have an entertaining field of successful thoroughbreds competing for the $2 million purse.

Field for the 150^th Preakness Stakes

These are the post positions, horses, jockeys and trainers. They are followed by the morning line odds for who will win the Woodlawn Vase.

1. Goal Oriented, Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert (6-1)
2. Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy (8-5)
3. American Promise, Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas (15-1)
4. Heart of Honor, Saffie Osborne, Jamie Osborne (12-1)
5. Pay Billy, Raul Mena, Michael Gorham (20-1)
6. River Thames, Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher (9-2)
7. Sandman, John Velazquez, Mark Casse (4-1)
8. Clever Again, Jose Ortiz, Steve Asmussen (5-1)
9. Gosger, Luis Saez, Brendan Walsh (20-1)

It’s the shortest leg of the Triple Crown at 1 3/16 of the mile. Baffert already has eight wins in the Preakness Stakes, while 89-year-old Lukas can tie his record with another win this year.

It’s no surprise to see Journalism as the favorite after running well two weeks ago. He had the lead down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby. Check our Preakness Stakes odds tracker to view the latest updates.

Exotic Bets for the Preakness Stakes

There are plenty reasons to like Journalism on Saturday. The 3-year-old colt has won four of his six starts, but the major concern for horses that compete in the Kentucky Derby is the turnaround time.

For instance, River Thames is a horse that qualified for the derby but didn’t enter the field. Connections (including WinStar Farm) made the decision to rest the colt for the Preakness Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a long list of accomplishments in his career, but he has never won the Preakness Stakes.

Goal Oriented is another horse to watch out of the inside post. He’s the only undefeated horse in the field, and Baffert knows how the win this race. Neither of his two wins were in stake races, so this will be the toughest competition he has seen. Look for Goal Oriented to get a jump out of the gate and take the early lead.

Below, I’ll include all these horses in some Preakness exotic bets. New customers can sign up on FanDuel to get a $500 no-sweat bet for the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Preakness Stakes Exacta Picks

Does Journalism have enough gas in the tank to win the Preakness? It’s going to be tough with several horses in the field that are lightly raced. I’m going with a 6-2 exacta, as well as 8-2.

Clever Again is trained by Asmussen, the winningest trainer in North America who has several wins in the Preakness. The colt is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He’s finished first in two of three starts, winning the Hot Springs Stakes by over seven furlongs.

Preakness Stakes Trifectas, Superfectas

There’s some real money to be made when making trifectas and superfectas. I’ll take a 6-2-8 and 1-6-2 trifecta.

Superfectas are a little harder to hit, so I’ll box the selections so the horses can come in any other. I’ll include 1-2-6-8.

I’ve stayed away from Sandman in these Preakness exotic bets. He’ll sit back and look to come on late, but he needs a good push in a short race after his appearance just two weeks ago.

Multi-Race Exotics at Pimlico

Keep in mind that there is a full day of racing a Pimlico Race Course. Go for the Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 to predict winners in multiple races.

Find odds for the UAE President Cup (Arabian) Stakes, Sir Barton Stakes, Chick Lang Stakes, Maryland Sprint Stakes, Skipat Stakes, James W. Murphy Stakes, Gallorette Stakes, Dinner Party Stakes and Jim McKay Turf Sprint.

Looking Back at Payouts Last Year

Keep in mind the payouts for Preakness exotic bets last year. It was Seize the Grey (9-1), Mystik Dan (5-2), followed by Catching Freedom (7-2).

• $1 exacta: $59.70
• $1 trifecta: $183.70
• $1 superfecta: $749

These were the payouts for the multi-race exotics:

• $1 Daily Double: $158.70
• $0.50 Pick 3: $538.90
• $0.50 Pick 4: $1,826.65
• $0.50 Pick 5: $11,526.85
• $0.20 Pick 6: $10,000.94

These are multiple horse betting apps available for Saturday, but we recommend FanDuel to experience handicappers and newcomers. It provides tools and features to make picks on the Preakness Stakes and other horse races, including the Belmont Stakes.

The post Preakness Exotic Bets: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks for 2025 Race appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes is Saturday, May 17 with post time of 7:01 p.m. in Baltimore.

• Journalism, who was second in the Kentucky Derby, is considered the favorite at 8-5 odds as of Friday morning.

• Read on for my look at the best odds for the Preakness, and my expert prediction for “The Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.”

They’ll be off for the 150th time at the Preakness Stakes Saturday with a nine-horse field. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 80s at post time and no rain, unlike the slop in the Kentucky Derby.

Derby winner Sovereignty is sitting out, citing the workload of two big races in two weeks. This has again sparked calls for change to the Triple Crown calendar. Seize the Grey went wire-to-wire last year at 12-1 odds to win the Preakness.

Who’s winning the 150th Preakness? I had a good pick for the Derby, and I have my look at the best odds and prediction.

Odds for 2025 Preakness

Odds from FanDuel Racing as of Friday morning. Saddle up with our best FanDuel promo code.

After dueling Sovereignty down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, Journalism is the favorite leading into the Preakness.

Let’s talk about a couple of longshots in the field. Pay Billy is the local favorite, and he won his last two races at nearby Laurel Park, but he’s never run at Pimlico before. He’s sure to get more action on him as the race nears. Don’t get suckered when you see his odds drop Saturday.

Heart of Honor is a European-bred horse who was second in the United Arab Emirates Derby to Admire Daytona, but the bad news is Admire Daytona was woefully outclassed and finished last in the Kentucky Derby.

The longshot I like at 15-1 is American Promise. He ran well the first ¾ of a mile in the Kentucky Derby but then faded badly, my guess is the muddy track messed him up. His speed figure (basically a number charting a horse’s pace) is strong, and he will do better in the shorter distance for the Preakness.

2025 Preakness Prediction

The big thing to know about the Preakness is that it’s the ‘sprint’ race of the Triple Crown, the shortest one of the three. That means it rewards speed more than the other races.

I’m going with Clever Again to win. His latest speed figure was 101, and he won wire-to-wire in the Hot Springs Stakes. In a small field, winning wire-to-wire is a strong possibility. He has good bloodlines that include 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. I also like his jockey, Jose Ortiz, who won the Preakness back in 2022 and has had the second-highest wins of any jockey since 2000.

The one question mark on Clever Again is that this will be his first time running more than a mile, but I think he has the speed to overcome it.

2025 Preakness Picks

• Win: Clever Again

• Place: Journalism

• Show: Sandman

Nobody is going to outright say it, but this isn’t the strongest Preakness field ever. I like Clever Again to win, because he has the speed, and I believe Journalism will tire after running in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.

I love Sandman to finish in the money. He clearly didn’t like the slow at Churchill Downs and finished seventh. His speed figure is 99, and he’s won three races on a fast track, which we should get Saturday.

Goal Oriented is the other horse getting plenty of love, but he’s only made two career starts before Saturday. Even though he has the trainer (Bob Baffert) and bloodline (Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness and Belmont in 2005), this is a big leap for a horse.

The post Odds for 2025 Preakness & Expert Picks, Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 2025 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 3rd
• Journalism remains the favorite at +300 odds, while Sovereignty (+450) isn’t far behind
• See the final 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, start time, plus our updated prediction with scratches

The 2025 Kentucky Derby is just hours away, with post time set for 6:57 pm ET today at Churchill Downs. After months of prep races and qualification points, we’ve reached the big moment for this talented bunch of three-year-olds.

Let’s dive into the final odds, go over the start time details, and share our updated prediction for the 151st Run for the Roses!

Final Kentucky Derby Odds 2025

The betting market has been shifting in the final hours leading up to the Derby. Here are the latest odds from TwinSpires as of Saturday afternoon:

Odds as of May 3rd at 1:00 PM ET at TwinSpires. Find the top sports betting bonus codes for your Kentucky Derby action.

Journalism still sits as the clear favorite at +300, with Sovereignty (+450) and Sandman (+500) right behind him. Two horses have been scratched from the original field – Rodriguez with a foot bruise and Grande due to a cracked heel.

Kentucky Derby Start Time 2025

The 2025 Kentucky Derby kicks off at 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 3rd. You can catch all the action live on NBC or stream it on Peacock. This marks the 151st running of the historic race, often called “the most exciting two minutes in sports.”

Churchill Downs attendance has been climbing every year since the 2020 race had no spectators due to COVID-19. Even with rain in the forecast, more than 156,710 fans are expected to pack the stands today.

Updated Kentucky Derby Prediction 2025

After looking at the latest odds, post positions, and recent workouts, here’s my updated prediction for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

Why Sovereignty (+450) Is The Best Bet

Sovereignty jumps off the page as the smartest play in this year’s Derby. From post 18, Bill Mott’s colt has several things working in his favor that make him a solid value at +450.

First, he’s already won at Churchill Downs, taking the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes over this very track last October by five lengths. That proven success at the Derby venue gives him a leg up on many rivals.

Second, his running style fits perfectly with how this race should unfold. With speed horses breaking from all over – Citizen Bull on the rail, East Avenue mid-pack, and Owen Almighty outside – we’re likely to see a blistering early pace. Sovereignty’s closing kick puts him in prime position to pick up the pieces when the frontrunners start gasping for air.

Third, he’s making his third start off the bench, when horses typically hit their peak. His two races this year have been perfectly mapped out by Mott – winning the Fountain of Youth while still getting fit, then using the Florida Derby as his final tune-up. Everything says he’s ready to fire his best shot today.

While Journalism (+300) has the credentials as the favorite, recent Derby history shows chalk has struggled, with no winner in the past six years going off shorter than 8-1. Sometimes you’ve got to look beyond the obvious choice.

Other Contenders to Consider

Burnham Square (+800) deserves a hard look after his eye-catching Blue Grass win. Having Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons – the same jockey who guided last year’s winner Mystik Dan to victory in that wild photo finish – is a major plus. His versatility lets him either stalk or come from the clouds.

Sandman (+500) has drawn heavy betting action as the second choice, but that 17 post is a killer – it’s the only starting gate that’s never produced a Derby winner. Talented? Sure, but terrible value at those odds.

Luxor Cafe (+1000) represents Japan’s best Derby shot since Forever Young nearly pulled it off last year. Being a son of Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, he should handle the distance just fine.

Final Kentucky Derby Predictions 2025

1. Sovereignty (+450) – Perfect running style for how this race sets up, proven at Churchill, and peaking right on time

2. Journalism (+300) – Most consistent horse in the field, but fighting that favorite’s curse

3. Burnham Square (+800) – Has the connections and tactical speed to hit the board

4. Baeza (+1400) – Late addition who gave Journalism all he could handle in the Santa Anita Derby

While Journalism is the deserving favorite based on his consistent performances, Sovereignty offers the best combination of proven ability, running style suited to the race dynamics, and value at his current odds.

In a race that’s been kind to longer shots lately, Sovereignty stands out as the smart money play in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

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The post Final Kentucky Derby Odds 2025, Start Time + Updated Prediction appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 2025 Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday, May 4, at 6:57 pm ET
• Journalism is currently a +300 favorite
• See the best Kentucky Derby exotic bets for the 151st edition of the Run for the Roses

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby takes place this evening at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 pm ET and, on the afternoon of raceday, Journalism is holding strong as the +300 favorite to win in the 19-horse field (which say #4 Rodriguez and #10 Grande scratched earlier in the week).

Below, I will run down my favorite Kentucky Derby exotic bets for 2025, but first, here is the current field and odds for the remaining 19 horses.

Field for the 151st Kentucky Derby

1. Citizen Bull (+2000)
2. Neoequos (+3000)
3. Final Gambit (+3000)
4. Rodriguez (+1200)
5. American Promise (+3000)
6. Admire Daytona (+3000)
7. Luxor Cafe (+1500)
8. Journalism (+300)
9. Burnham Square (+1200)
10. Grande (+2000)
11. Flying Mohawk (+3000)
12. East Avenue (+2000)
13. Publisher (+2000)
14. Tiztastic (+2000)
15. Render Judgment (+3000)
16. Coal Battle (+3000)
17. Sandman (+600)
18. Sovereignty (+500)
19. Chunk of Gold (+3000)
20. Owen Almighty (+3000)
21. Baeza (+1200)

As mentioned, both Rodriguez and Grande were scratched, leaving 19 horses in the field as of Saturday morning. Besides Journalism, only two other horses are shorter than +1000 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds: #18 Sovereignty at +500 and #17 Sandman at +600.

Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks

• $2 Exacta: Citizen Bull + Publisher
• $4 Exacta each way: Luxor Cafe + TizTastic

For my exacta bets, I’m going to tail SBD experts Darren Cooper and Zach Reger. Cooper has pegged #1 Citizen Bull (+2000) as his best value bet to win the Kentucky Derby and #13 Publisher (+2000) as his best bet to place. A $5 exacta on these two horses to win and place, respectively, would pay out $114.24 if it hits.

My second exacta play tails Reger’s two Kentucky Derby longshot picks – #7 Luxor Cafe (+1500) and #14 TizTastic (+2000). A $4 each way exacta bet on Luxor Cafe and TizTastic would payout $331.86 if they finish Luxor Cafe win, TizTasitc show, and $323.28 if Tiztastic takes the win and Luxor Cafe finishes second.

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks

• $10 Trifecta: Journalism + Sovereignty + Sandman

For the 2025 Kentucky Derby trifecta picks, I’m going to go super chalky, to counteract the longshots I have in my exactas. In this exacta, I have pre-race favorite Journalism winnings, second-favorite Sovereignty placing, and third-favorite Sandman showing. A $10 trifecta bet with these three horses would payout a whopping $816.30 if they finish in that exact order.

A lot of pundits are excited by the prospect of this Derby being more “wide open” than many recent races. The cumulative implied win probability of the top-three favorites (i.e. the three horses in my trifecta) adds up to just 55.96%. Meaning there’s nearly a 50/50 chance (according to the odds) that the winner isn’t a top-three betting favorite. But in terms of my trifecta, that means I can put the three “best” horses in the field in the top three positions and get massive +760 odds on the whole thing.

The post Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets – Exacta & Trifecta Picks for 2025 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Rain began an hour before broadcast and is expected to continue throughout Derby day
• Officials sealed the main dirt track Friday night, but a sloppy track is expected by the 6:57 p.m. ET post time
• See the full 2025 Kentucky Derby weather report below, plus how it impacts betting

The 151st Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be a muddy affair with Mother Nature playing a significant role in today’s historic race at Churchill Downs.

Rain is already coming down in Louisville, making things tricky for the 19-horse field gearing up for “the most exciting two minutes in sports.” The track officials are doing what they can to handle the situation, but both bettors and trainers have to rethink their game plans now.

With rainfall approaching half an inch expected throughout the day, we’re looking at a dramatically different Kentucky Derby than what many handicappers prepared for earlier this week.

Current Track Conditions

It started raining about an hour before the broadcast and it looks like it’s going to keep up all day during the Derby. This totally shakes things up for bettors and makes it tricky for the 19-horse lineup.

Track officials took precautionary measures Friday night by sealing the main dirt track to protect it from the incoming precipitation. The move helped preserve conditions temporarily, but with Louisville’s forecast showing a 100 percent chance of daytime rain with accumulations approaching half an inch, we’re likely looking at a sloppy track come post time.

The wet weather has already impacted morning activities, with very few Derby contenders venturing out for early training. Most connections opted to keep their horses safe and dry ahead of the 6:57 p.m. ET post time.

Impact on Undercard Races

For bettors targeting the undercard races, the turf course was still listed as firm during early broadcasts but could quickly deteriorate to yielding or soft as rainfall continues. This potential surface change puts exotic wagers like the Pick 6 at significant risk, as turf specialists might underperform or scratch altogether.

Weather Nation TV described the track as likely to be “extremely soggy” by race time. While there’s a brief window where precipitation chances drop to about 15 percent around 6 p.m. local time, the rain is expected to return shortly after the main event.

Additional Weather Factors

Adding another wrinkle to the equation, wind gusts up to 15 mph are forecasted for around post time, potentially creating even more challenging racing conditions.

This wouldn’t be the first time weather has affected this year’s festivities at Churchill Downs. Friday’s Kentucky Oaks was delayed by 12 minutes due to a severe thunderstorm warning, though favorite Good Cheer still managed to maintain her perfect 7-0 record with a victory.

How Weather Affects Race Dynamics

The sloppy track conditions dramatically alter the race dynamics, likely creating a hot early pace as jockeys push their mounts forward to avoid the dreaded mud “kickback” that comes with running behind other horses. This scenario typically favors closers who can sit off the pace and make one sustained late run.

According to early betting patterns, the Derby appears to be shaping up as a two-horse battle between the favorite Journalism (3-1) and Sovereignty (9-2). Journalism has impressed with four consecutive victories including the Santa Anita Derby, but the sloppy conditions could compromise his early speed if the pace gets too hot.

Top Derby Contenders in the Mud

Looking for a Kentucky Derby best bet? Check out our Picks for Win, Place & Show.

Sovereignty is considered the top closer in the field and could benefit significantly from today’s wet track. The betting public seems to agree, as he’s been heavily backed in the Kentucky Oaks/Derby double pool that grew to approximately $3 million by late Friday.

Other contenders who might appreciate the off track include Final Gambit, who could save ground along the rail and capitalize on tiring front-runners. Longshots Sandman (5-1) and Tistastic are also getting buzz as potential “mudders” who could outperform their odds in these challenging conditions.

Advice for Derby Attendees

Headed to Churchill Downs? You’ll want to pack some rain gear. It’s gonna be wet out there, and with the way the track’s shaping up, the weather might have just as much say in the winner as the horses do.

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The post 2025 Kentucky Derby Weather Report: Rain Likely to Create Sloppy Track at Churchill Downs appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs with post time set for 7:02 p.m.

• Rain is in the afternoon forecast, which could mean a sloppy track for the run for the roses.

• It’s true what it says in my bio, I have horse racing in my bloodline, and I have my picks for the Derby to Win, Place and Show.

Journalism was the morning line favorite Saturday at Churchill Downs to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. But that’s not good news. No favorite has won the Derby since 2018. The last four winners were all double-digit favorites, including Mystik Dan at 18-1 last year.

I tell people all the time that there are so many different ways to handicap the Derby, do you want a horse with a winning pedigree? A horse with a renowned – and maybe crooked – trainer? Do you want the best story? Do you want a horse that’s won before? A horse that is emerging? Or do you want the horse with the silliest name?

I have read through the speed reports, studied up on the field, sadly, Grandpa’s system for betting at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans has long been lost. Here are my picks for the win, place and show trifecta.

2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bet Odds

Odds as of Saturday morning.

The 19-horse field is not as top-heavy as it has been in years past. Florida Derby winner Tappan Street, who may be the best 3-year-old in the country, was a scratch with a fracture in his foreleg. They say he may race again. I doubt it.

Rodriguez, a Bob Baffert-trained horse, who won the Wood Memorial and was getting a lot of pre-race love, was scratched with a foot bruise, but may be ready for the Preakness.

Grande was another late scratch with a cracked heel, which his owner was not happy about.

With several front-runners out, focus turns to Journalism, the heavy favorite. Everyone loves his name, but there were worries after his final workout at Churchill Downs was rescheduled. That could be code for something isn’t right.

Best Bet to Win: Citizen Bull

Citizen Bull has been the horse I have been focused on the whole time. He broke through as a 2-year-old, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He won his debut as a three-year-old at the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

He hasn’t gotten a lot of pre-race attention because of a bad finish at the Santa Anita Derby where he finished fourth. His trainer, Bob Baffert, who is back at the Derby after a three-year suspension for all kinds of nonsense, said Citizen Bull wasn’t ready, but is now.

The other bad thing for Citizen Bull is he got the No. 1 post position, which hasn’t brought home a Derby winner since 1986. Horses can get pinned on the rail. But I think Citizen Bull is ready and will get out fast and hold off a bunch of chargers.

Best Bet to Place: Publisher

Pedigree? Check. Publisher is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He finished second in the Arkansas Derby. In fact, Publisher has never won a race. No maiden (a horse without a win) has won the Derby since 1933.

Publisher trainer Steve Asmussen is 0-26 in Derby starts, but calls Publisher the ‘easiest’ horse he’s ever saddled for the Derby. That’s code for ready.

Publisher has something else going for him today. He’s run well in mud. He ran on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs, finished third in a Maiden Special, and was second in some slop at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby.

Best Bet to Show: Sovereignty

I went back and forth on this one. My upset special is Render Judgement, but I think I like Sovereignty a bit more. He won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in October. He was second behind Tappan Street in the Florida Derby and has shown the ability to finish strong. But like every other horse in the field, running a mile and a quarter will be different for him. He may finish strong but then fade.

Sovereignty and Citizen Bull are also half-brothers, sired by Into Mischief, who finished in the money in all six races in his career.

The post Best Bets for Kentucky Derby: Picks for Win, Place & Show (2025) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 151st Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 3 from Churchill Downs
• There are many intriguing longshots in “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” in 2025
• See below for my favorite Kentucky Derby longshot picks for 2025

Who doesn’t love betting on a longshot? The Kentucky Derby is the perfect opportunity for bettors to win big payouts by wagering on horses with longer odds. Last year, Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby at 18-1 odds, so a $10 wager would have resulted in a $190 payout. Some other recent longshots to win the Running for the Roses were Country House (30-1) in 2019 and Rich Strike (80-1) in 2022.

Betting on longshots is just one way to get in on the action at the Derby. Whether you are looking to bet on horse racing for the first time or just want a quick refresher, check out our horse racing guide to see how to bet on the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Longshots

Journalism enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as the +300 favorite and is followed closely by Sovereignty at +500 in the latest Kentucky Derby odds. Journalism got a strong post position at 8, so he will likely receive a lot of bets to win. Post No. 8 has the second-most wins at nine, and Mage was the last to win from that post in 2023. Sovereignty, on the other hand, got a worse draw and will be running from Post No. 18. Only two horses have won from that position.

There is a lot of value for bettors looking for horses with longer odds. They are less likely to win, but they offer much larger payouts. Anything can happen in the most exciting two minutes in sports, so let’s take a look at the Kentucky Derby longshots that provide the most value in 2025.

Luxor Cafe has Triple Crown Pedigree

The 3-year-old Japanese colt is the son of American Pharoah, who won the Triple Crown in 2015. With the bloodline of a champion, Luxor Cafe provides great value at 15-1 odds. It is risky to bet on Japanese horses as none have ever won the Kentucky Derby, but that does not mean they have not had success internationally. Forever Young was a talented Japanese horse in the Kentucky Derby last year, and he finished third in what was a photo finish.

This horse is fast and is probably one of the fastest horses in the field. In his last race at the Fukuryu Stakes, he won by five lengths and finished the last furlong in 12 seconds. He has great acceleration and should be able to finish near the front.

In six starts, he has one second place finish and has won four in a row. Luxor Cafe has Triple Crown DNA, knows how to win, and has a favorable post position at 7. He is a great longshot bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

TizTastic Offers Value

At 20-1, I am betting on Tiztastic to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a longshot. He is the son of Tiz the Law, who finished second at the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

TizTastic most recently won the Louisiana Derby and is a finisher. He has the closing speed needed at the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby, so we should see him making a late push towards the end of the race.

He has raced at Churchill Downs twice in his career and has a second and a third-place finish. He has eight races under his belt, so Tiztastic enters the Kentucky Derby with a lot of experience. Tiztastic’s running style fits perfectly at Churchill Downs, and he is a great Kentucky Derby longshot to bet on.

Bob Baffert is Back

After serving a suspension, one of the best horse trainers is back at Churchill Downs. Bob Baffert has trained two triple crown winners, and in 2025, he is back at the Running of the Roses with Citizen Bull.

Citizen Bull is 20-1 to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He has the speed to do it, but he got an unfavorable post position at 1. He will need to get out of the gates quickly and needs a little luck, but it is hard to count out any horse that is trained by Bob Baffert.

He won his debut race, then finished in third in the second race. After that, Citizen Bull won three in a row. At that moment, it seemed like his Kentucky Derby odds were going to be near the top of the board, but then he had an underwhelming fourth-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby in his last race. I believe he is better than that finish in a race that had a lot of strong contenders, featuring the Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism. Betting on a Bob Baffert-trained horse at 20-1 is a great longshot wager.

Best 2025 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Luxor Cafe (+1500)

The post 2025 Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks – Look for Luxor Cafe, Tiztastic, or Citizen Bull to Upset Journalism appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The 2025 Kentucky Derby gets underway on Saturday, May 3rd
• Journalism is currently the +250 favorite
• Find all the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, predictions, and my expert picks, below

The 151st Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3rd, from Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. Journalism enters the “Run for the Roses” as a +225 favorite, followed by Sovereignty (+450), Luxor Cafe (+800), Burnham Square (+850), and Sandman (+850).

The 2025 Kentucky Derby has a post time of 6:57 pm ET on Saturday on NBC and Peacock. Get your bets in before these odds fall, and don’t miss the fastest two minutes in sports.

Dive into the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, with all my analysis and best bets, below.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

Santa Anita Derby-winner Journalism is the +250 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sovereignty at +500. Luxor Cafe and Sandman are co-third-favorites at +800.

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Odds as of May 1st at FanDuel. Find the top sports betting bonus codes for your horse racing action.

2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bet: Luxor Cafe +800

Sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe has been putting on a show on the horse racing circuit in Japan. His pedigree and pace are more than good enough to win the “Run for the Roses”. The Kentucky-bred Colt came from behind to win Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths, flying around the final corner to decimate his competition. Before that, Luxor Cafe dominated fellow Kentucky Derby contender Admire Daytona at the Hyacinth Stakes, beating the UAE Derby winner by 10 lengths.

Crucially, Luxor Cafe finished the final three-eighths on that race in a sparkling 36.51 seconds. It’s important to note, 10 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 27 Kentucky Derby winners have finished the final three-eighths of their last prep race in under 38 seconds.

Now, the Japanese starts won’t have any Beyer Speed scores associated to them. However, his fastest performances line up well with the fastest horses in the Kentucky Derby field. Look for Luxor Cafe to unleash his explosive acceleration and win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

Best Kentucky Derby Value Bet: Burnham Square +1000

While he’s not the flashiest name on the betting board, Burnham Square is a well-rounded 2025 Kentucky Derby contender. While he’ll enter the Run for the Roses flying a bit under the radar, his racing profile screams classic contender.

Burnham Square has been bred to run at this distance, and has posted six dirt starts already in this career. He has the pedigree, speed, and closing ability that is vital to winning the 20-horse stampede that is the Kentucky Derby. The colt won the Grade 3 2025 Holy Bull Stakes in February before finishing off his final prep race in fine form and taking home the victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass, while defeating fellow Derby runner East Avenue.

Sired by Breeders Cup Mile winner Liam’s Map, Burnham Square has the advantage of Churchill Downs experience. On top of that, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. frequently races on the track, and piloted last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, to victory. Hernandez’s Derby success will be a huge advantage, as Burnham Square has shown he can either stalk the pace, or pounce as a late-runner on the final stretch. He’s also more than capable of handling the traffic that inevitably arises in the Kentucky Derby.

At +1000 odds, Burnham Square is a battle-tested Kentucky Derby sleeper. He checks all the boxes as a classic upset winner.

The post Odds for Kentucky Derby & Expert Picks, Predictions for 2025 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 156th running of the Belmont Stakes will be at a different location. Due to renovations at Belmont Park, the Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course for the next two years.

Even though there is no chance for a Triple Crown winner, there are many talented horses in the field that should make the 2024 Belmont Stakes an entertaining race. There are many different horse racing bet types, so whether you have bet on horse racing before or want to learn more, be sure to check out our updated guide. I will look at multiple ways you can bet on the Belmont Stakes and give you my best bets and predictions under the table. The table details the odds and post position for all ten horses in the 2024 field.

2024 Belmont Stakes Odds

Odds as of June 7th, 2024 at TwinSpires.

The Belmont Stakes odds list Sierra Leone as the 9-5 favorite to win in 2024. Sierra Leone placed at the Kentucky Derby and did not run at the Preakness Stakes. A $20 wager on Sierra Leone to win would win $36 and result in a payout of $56. Mindframe has the second-best odds at 7-2, and even though the horse is inexperienced, he has a lot of talent. Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up, Mystik Dan, is not far behind the other two.

Best Belmont Stakes Bets

Sierra Leone should be a popular ticket to win the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. He has gotten first or second in all five of his starts. He won three of those five and finished in second place in the other two starts, including his last race at the Kentucky Derby. Even among the other favorites, Sierra Leone sticks out.

The horse is experienced unlike Mindframe, who only has two starts under his belt, and is well-rested unlike Mystik Dan, who is the first horse since 2019 to run in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in its traditional five-week time frame. So while Mystik Dan has run well in the two other races, fatigue is something to consider.

It is not always fun to bet on the favorite, but Sierra Leone is that good and has everything you look for in a winning horse. Sierra Leone had the second-best odds to win the Kentucky Derby and ended up coming in second. The winners at the Belmont Stakes recently have all had shorter odds to win. Since 2020, the four winners have all been in the top three in odds on the morning line. It is hard to bet against a horse with that kind of pedigree and history.

Best Belmont Stakes Bet: Sierra Leone to win (9-5)

2024 Belmont Stakes Longshot Picks

While Sierra Leone is the favorite and most likely horse to win, it would not be horse racing if you do not look at the longshots. Even if longshots have not done particularly well at the Belmont Stakes of late, there is a horse that is worth a sprinkle due to the potential payout.

Out of the No. 5 post position, Antiquarian is making his Triple Crown race debut. Antiquarian is fresh off a first-place finish at the Peter Pan Stakes and comes into the 2024 Belmont Stakes with 12-1 odds. The winner of that race has won the Belmont Stakes four times including last year’s winner, Arcangelo.

In four starts, Antiquarian finished in second place, first place, sixth place, and first place. It was great to see the horse bounce back and win after a rough finish at the Louisiana Derby. His trainer, Todd Pletcher has already won the Belmont Stakes four times, so he will be looking for win number five on Saturday. At 12-1 odds, Antiquarian is a horse that has a shot at being in the mix at the end of the race, so he is worth a longshot bet.

Best Belmont Stakes Longshot Pick: Antiquarian (12-1)

Best Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets

One of the most popular types of wagers in horse racing are exotic bets such as exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. These bets require you to pick the finishing order of the race correctly. These types of wagers give bettors the opportunity for large payouts, which is why they are appealing. In straight exotic bets, you need to correctly pick which horse finishes first, second, third, etc, which is a tall task. That is why many bettors opt for exotic boxes where you pick which horses will finish at the top, but the order does not matter.

Sierra Leone will be making my trifecta box for the 2024 Belmont Stakes. Just one more point in Sierra Leone’s favor is that his trainer, Chad Brown, is a Saratoga native and knows this track very well. Antiquarian should also be in the running at the end, so I like for him to finish in the top three. Then for the third horse, I will pick one who is coming off back to back wins: Seize the Grey.

Seize the Grey was my favorite longshot pick to win the Preakness Stakes, and that is exactly what he did. The horse is trained by Hall of Famer, D Wayne Lukas and won the 2024 Pat Day Mile before winning the Preakness. Seize the Grey is also running from the #1 post position which has the most wins in Belmont Stakes history. At 8-1 odds, he is not a bad horse to bet on, but instead of betting him to strictly to win, I will throw him in my trifecta box.

Best Belmont Stakes Exotic Pick: 9-5-1 Trifecta Box

The post Belmont Stakes Predictions, Best Bets, Exotics & Best Longshots appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes is set to take place on Saturday, May 18, 2024, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. The second leg of the Triple Crown will feature an exciting showdown between some of the top three-year-old thoroughbreds in the nation.

The race is scheduled to start at 7:01 p.m. ET and will be televised on NBC, with coverage beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET.

There’s been a shake-up in the morning line favorites, as Muth, initially the top pick at 8-5 (+160) odds, was scratched due to a fever.

This means Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is now the favorite at 5-2 (+250) odds. Keep an eye on other strong contenders like Imagination (+500), Catching Freedom (+600), and Tuscan Gold (+800).

Best Bet to Win the Preakness Stakes

When it comes to picking the Preakness Stakes winner, Tuscan Gold stands out as the best bet. Trained by Chad Brown, who has already won the Preakness twice with slightly late-blooming horses, Tuscan Gold fits a similar profile.

Tuscan Gold putting in work for #Preakness149. pic.twitter.com/FO2vC2bHlk

— Preakness Stakes (@PreaknessStakes) May 15, 2024

He finished third in his stakes debut at the Louisiana Derby, showing promise for improvement. With the advantage of racing fresh compared to his rivals who competed in the grueling Kentucky Derby just two weeks ago, Tuscan Gold could take a step forward and have a strong say in the outcome.

At 8-1 odds, he offers excellent value for bettors looking to back the potential Preakness Stakes winner. Tuscan Gold’s connections and racing style make him an appealing choice for those seeking a solid win bet. A simple $10 wager would return $80 in profit if successful.

Best Preakness Stakes Win Bet: Tuscan Gold (+800)

Preakness Stakes Place Bet Prediction

For a reliable place bet in the Preakness Stakes, look no further than Imagination. This Bob Baffert-trained colt has been incredibly consistent, finishing in the exacta in all six of his career starts,

He has earned two victories and secured four second-place finishes, demonstrating his consistent ability to perform at a high level. Although Baffert’s other entry, Muth, was scratched, Imagination still has the talent and the trainer’s expertise behind him to secure a top-two finish in the Preakness Stakes.

At 6-1 (600) odds, Imagination is a smart place bet for those looking to capitalize on his reliability. With his ability to consistently finish in the top two, Imagination offers a level of security for bettors who want to minimize risk while still having a strong chance at a solid return.

Best Preakness Stakes Place Bet: Imagination

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Preakness Stakes Show Bet Prediction

Don’t count out Just Steel for a show bet in the Preakness Stakes odds, despite his 17th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Just Steel set a blistering pace in the Derby before tiring in the stretch.

However, the shorter distance of the Preakness and a more patient ride from jockey Joel Rosario could make a world of difference.

#Preakness entrant Just Steel coming to the track pic.twitter.com/BK64IKRvu9

— Nicole Russo (@DRFRusso) May 17, 2024

Just Steel has already proven his ability to compete at a high level, having beaten Mystik Dan convincingly in the Arkansas Derby two starts back. At generous odds of 15-1 (1500), Just Steel has the potential to outrun his price and sneak into the top three, making him an attractive show bet in the Preakness Stakes.

His previous success against Mystik Dan and the potential for a more strategically paced ride suggests that he could surprise many and secure a top-three finish. Steel is being undervalued at +1500 and has a substantial payout on a show bet, making him a horse to watch closely in the Preakness Stakes odds.

Best Preakness Stakes Show Bet: Just Steel

Odds to Win Preakness Stakes 2024

*Note: Muth was scratched from the race.

Odds as of May 17 at Twin Spires. 

With Muth out of the picture, the Preakness Stakes odds have shifted, putting Mystik Dan in the favorite spot at 5-2 (+250). The Kentucky Derby winner is aiming to become the 14th Triple Crown winner and the first since Justify in 2018.

However, recent history hasn’t been kind to Preakness favorites, with Justify being the last one to win in 2018.

Other top contenders to watch include Imagination (+600), Catching Freedom (+600), and Tuscan Gold (+800). These horses are ready to give Mystik Dan a run for his money and potentially upset the favorite in what’s shaping up to be a thrilling Preakness Stakes.

The post Best Bets for Preakness Stakes: Picks for Win, Place & Show appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 149^th running of the Preakness Stakes is set for Saturday, May 18^th. Pimlico Race Course annually hosts the second leg of the Triple Crown. All eyes will be on the winner of the Run for the Roses, Mystik Dan, to see if the colt can repeat his efforts from just two weeks ago. I’ll be going over some great options for Preakness exotic bets, such as exactas and trifectas.

Last year, National Treasure won the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The $1 exacta paid $15.90, while the $.50 trifecta paid $12.10. The winnings are less than what it usually awarded in the Kentucky Derby, but it’s a lot easier to hit a ticket with less horses in the field.

We look at several factors when handicapping the Preakness Stakes. Learn how to read a horse racing program to understand the past performances of each horse. You can also find trainers, jockeys and how the horse has performed on different surfaces.

Field for the 149^th Preakness Stakes

The morning-line favorite has already scratched, so Mystik Dan is now the favorite to win the Woodlawn Vase. A painter will climb to the top of the Old Clubhouse cupola following the race to apply the silks of one of these horses to the weather vane. Below is the entire field for the Preakness Stakes, including the trainer and jockey.

1. Mugatu, Jeff Engler, Joe Bravo, 20-1
2. Uncle Heavy, Butch Reid Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1
3. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-1
4. Muth, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, SCRATCHED
5. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-2
6. Seize the Grey, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 15-1
7. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Joel Rosario, 15-1
8. Tuscan Gold, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 8-1
9. Imagination, Bob Baffert, Frankie Dettori, 6-1

Check in with our Preakness Stakes odds tracker to get the latest lines!

Best Preakness Stakes Exotic Bets

There isn’t much money to be made by making a straight wager. While most will be placing a bet on a single horse to win the race, I’ll be trying to hit an exotic or two in the Preakness. There are only eight horses in the field, so the odds are better for selecting the top finishers.

Mystik Dan has three wins in his four starts, but none were as fruitful as the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. He had a perfect run around the 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs. The race on Saturday will be 1 3/16 miles around the dirt track at Pimlico Race Course. Get in your wagers before the horses reach the gate at 6:50 pm ET.

Preakness Stakes Exacta Picks

Catching Freedom wasn’t far behind Mystik Dan in the Kentucky Derby. Cox’s horse was just 1 ¼ lengths behind the cluster of three horses, finishing 4^th. He is a closer that has always been in the top 4 in all of his six starts.

Gaffalione failed to win two weeks ago abord Sierra Leone, but he has a great chance in the Preakness with Tuscan Gold. The colt has one win in just three starts. Note that Brown has trained two previous horses that won the Preakness Stakes without running in the Kentucky Derby.

Baffert pulled Muth from the race after running a fever, but he still has a great chance with Imagination. He is coming off of a 2^nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, winning two races in his six career starts. Expect Imagination to be near the front early.

• $5 Exacta: Mystik Dan, Imagination
• $5 Exacta: Imagination, Tuscan Gold
• $5 Exacta Box: Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold

Preakness Stakes Trifecta & Superfecta Picks

The other horse I could see making a run into the top bunch would be Seize the Grey. Lukas is a legendary trainer with numerous wins in this race, but competition will be much stronger than what he saw in the Pat Day Mile last time out.

• $2 Trifecta: Mystik Dan, Imagination, Tuscan Gold
• $2 Trifecta: Imagination, Tuscan Gold, Mystik Dan
• $1 Superfecta Box: Mystik Dan, Imagination, Tuscan Gold, Sieze the Grey

Mugatu is getting another shot in a stakes race after not being able to earn an entry into the Kentucky Derby. He was just a scratch way from entering the field, but he remained in the barn for the Run for the Roses. The colt has yet to hit the board in a stakes race. Uncle Heavy and Just Steel are two other contenders that should be longshots. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to add one of these horses into a supefecta or trifecta box just in case they hit and increase the payouts.

There are several great horse betting apps that make it easy for handicappers to place the following wagers, such as FanDuel Racing and TwinSpires. Sign up through the links on this page to start with the best welcome bonuses.

If Mystik Dan can pull of the win in the Preakness Stakes, all eyes will turn to the Belmont Stakes in New York. The final leg of the Triple Crown will be on Saturday, June 8^th. “The Test of the Champion” has been moved to Saratoga Race Course in 2024 because of the construction occurring at Belmont Park.

The post Preakness Exotic Bets: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Picks 2024 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 18, at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, MD. The second leg of the 2024 Triple Crown will see Kentucky Derby-winner Mystik Dan enter as a 5/2 (+250) favorite after opening favorite Muth was scratched earlier in the week.

The table below lists the latest Preakness Stakes odds for all eight horses remaining in the field along with post positions and their finishing position in the Kentucky Derby, if applicable. Under the table, find my best bets and picks for the 2024 Preakness.

2024 Preakness Stakes Odds

Mystik Dan is a sizable favorite over the rest of the field. At +250, Mystik Dan has a 28.57% implied win probability. The second-favorites – Catching Freedom and Imagination – are at +600, which carries a 14.29%, i.e. half that of Mystik Dan.

Odds as of May 17 at Twin Spires. 

Next comes Tuscan Gold at +800 (11.11%) with the other four horses at either +1500 (6.25%) or +2000 (4.76%).

The early favorite to win the Preakness was Bob Baffert’s Muth at 8/5 (+160), which had a 38.46% implied win probability. But Muth was scratched due to running a temperature of 103 degrees on Tuesday. Mystik Dan had been listed at +300 in the opening lines and saw his price shorten to +250 after the former favorite was scratched.

Only One Horse Has Won the Derby and Preakness Since 2015

While the odds favor Mystik Dan, recent history is not in favor of the Derby-winner. Only once since 2015 has the Kentucky Derby champion gone onto win the Preakness, and that was Triple Crown-winner Justify in 2018.  In the history of the Triple Crown, however, 36 horses have won the Derby and Preakness (with 13 going onto win the Triple Crown and 23 falling short at the Belmont), which includes 11 such horses since 1997.

Only three of the horses running in the Preakness also racred the Kentucky Derby. Co-second-favorite Catching Freedom finished fourth at the Derby,  just 1.75 lengths behind Mystik Dan. Just Steel, who has +1500 odds to win the Preakness out of post position #7, was an also-ran in the Derby, finishing a distant 17th.

Mystik Dan was a fairly big +2000 longshot entering the Derby, a co-seventh-favorite. Jockey Brian Hernandez ran a near-perfect race while taking the Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Running out of the #3 post position, Hernandez had Mystik Dan on the inside rail from the opening corner and his positioning around the final bend give him a lead that he wouldn’t relinquish (though would have if the race had been a few feet further).

Preakness Stakes Pick & Predictions 2024

The weather for the Preakness forecasts to be considerably wetter/muddier than the Derby. Churchill Downs got rain early on race day two weeks ago, but the track was fairly dry by post time (and was rated “fast”). Pimlico is likely to be an off-track this Saturday.

That could actually be good news for Brian Hernandez and Mystik Dan, though. Mystik Dan has previous wins in muddy conditions, and there isn’t a positive off-track history for many others in the race. Uncle Heavy (+2000) is the only other horse with a serious off-track resume.

Many believe Mystik Dan’s main competition will be Bob Baffert’s other horse, Imagination. In six career races, Imagination has won twice and never finished worse than second. three times finishing less than a full length behind the winner.

As much as I want to back Mystik Dan and see a potential Triple Crown-winner at the Belmont, the odds are just too short. Imagination offers far better value at +600.

2024 Preakness best bet: Imagination (+600)

The post Odds for 2024 Preakness & Expert Picks, Predictions appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

If you’re planning to bet the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 4, be sure you take advantage of the KY Derby promos that are available. There are two great horse racing betting apps that are offering top notch bonuses for both new and existing customers. Depending on the state you reside in, you can get up to a $500 no sweat first bet through FanDuel Racing and/or upwards of $410 in bonuses at TwinSpires. Read more about these bonuses and claim either/both below.

Kentucky Derby Betting Promos

Both FanDuel Racing and TwinSpires are offering can’t miss betting promos for the Kentucky Derby. TwinSpires’ offer is a little more straightforward, while the max value of FanDuel Racing’s promo depends on where you live. Check out the table below to see what you qualify for:

If you click on the FanDuel Racing promos for Massachusetts, Ohio, or any of the legal sportsbook states (final row of the table), you will be directed towards a sportsbook signup page. This is to ensure you get the most for signup up with FanDuel. You will first claim the sportsbook promo, which is a bet $5 and get $150 or $300 (depending on your state), and then head over to the racebook to opt in to the $20 no sweat first bet for the Kentucky Derby.

You can read a little more about each of TwinSpires and FanDuel Racing’s Kentucky Derby promos below.

TwinSpires Promo Code “SBD” Gets Up to $410 Signup Bonus

If you’re new to TwinSpires, you can claim up to $410 in bonuses for using promo code SBD when signing up ahead of the Kentucky Derby. The full value is broken down into two different bonuses: (1) a $400 signup bonus and (2) a $10 money back offer. The former is only available to new users, since it is a signup bonus, and requires the code SBD, while the latter is available to all players and does not require any code.

The $400 signup bonus comes with some important terms and conditions to know:

• The bonus will be credited to your account in increments of $100
• Each $100 increment will be released after $400 is wagered

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This means the bonus can be worth either $100, $200, $300, or $400 depending on how much you wish to wager. In order to claim the full $400 bonus, you would have to wager $1,600. The good news is you have 30 days from creating your account to claim the full bonus, meaning you could bet $400 on Derby Day and have $100 in bonus cash released, then bet another $400 prior to your 30-day window closing (maybe on the Preakness Stakes on May 18) and receive another $100 in bonus cash.

Here’s what you’ll need when signing up for a new account at TwinSpires:

1. Provide your preferred email address and create a username & password
2. Have a piece of government-issued ID ready (driver’s license, SSN etc) to verify your identity and address
3. Have your preferred deposit method available

The $10 money back offer is much simpler. All you need to do is opt in and you will receive up to $10 back on your first single horse “to win” bet as long as your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the race. Again, this offer can be claimed by all users. So, if you find it a little too difficult to satisfy the requirements for the $400 signup bonus, you can always just fall back on TwinSpires’ money back offer.

FanDuel Racing Promo Offers a $500 No Sweat First Bet

FanDuel Racing is offering new players a great . This means you can wager up to $500 on your first bet, and if it loses, you will win your full wager back (up to $500) in bonus credits. FanDuel Racing’s promo is available right now and through to the start of the Kentucky Derby on May 4th.

In order to claim the $500 no sweat first bet, you must

1. Reside in one of the following states: AR, CA, DE, FL, ID, MN, MT, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, or WA
2. You must be a new user to FanDuel. (So, if you have been using their sportsbook in a state with legal online sports betting, you unfortunately will not be able to claim the $500 no sweat first bet. If this is you, scroll down a little further)
3. Make a minimum first deposit of $10

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Your refund will be issued in non-withdrawable Racing site credit, in the amount that you wagered (up to $500), that will expire seven days after receipt. So, be sure to use it within those seven days. (Sadly, the Preakness Stakes is two weeks after the Kentucky Derby.)

Get Up to $320 in Bonuses at FanDuel for KY Derby & NBA

FanDuel is offering all customers in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MD, MA, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, and WY a bonus for the Kentucky Derby as well. If you reside in one of the previously mentioned states and are already using FanDuel Racing or FanDuel Sportsbook, you can claim a $20 no sweat first bet for the Kentucky Derby. It’s far from $500, but it’s still something!

However, if you reside in one of those states and are not an existing customer, you can claim their sportsbook signup offer and then also get the $20 no sweat first bet for the Kentucky Derby. Just be sure to meet the requirements of their sportsbook offer first (bet $5 on any sporting event, which does not include horse racing), then go to the racebook and opt-in to the $20 no sweat first bet.

If you find yourself in the great state of Ohio, you can bet $5 to get $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins and then claim the $20 no sweat first bet for the Derby. If you’re in Massachusetts, you get the same offer – bet $5, get $300 in bonus bets if your bet wins on top of the $20 no sweat.

Finally, if you’re in one of the other 12 states from above, then you can bet $5 to get $150 in bonus bets if your bet wins and then get the $20 no sweat for the KY Derby. .

The post Kentucky Derby Betting Promos for 2024: Get Up to $910 to Use on the Derby appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

America’s most popular race, the Kentucky Derby, takes place this Saturday.  The main event, featuring 20 horses, will start at roughly 6:57 pm ET at Churchill Downs.

There are many different types of bets you can place on the Kentucky Derby. If you are betting on horse racing for the first time or just want a refresher, be sure to check out our horse racing guides to learn how to bet on the Kentucky Derby. Some of the most popular wagers are betting on a horse to win, place, or show.

Placing a win bet is simple, and it is exactly what it sounds like. Pick the horse you think will win the Kentucky Derby, and your ticket will cash if that horse wins the race. Place and show bets allow for a little more flexibility. Place bets allow the horse you choose to finish in first place or second, then show bets pay out if your horse finishes in the top three. Show bets are more likely to win so the odds are not as lucrative as win or place bets.

Best Bet to Win the Kentucky Derby

When picking a Kentucky Derby winner, there are a lot of different variables that bettors can look at. Past race results, post position, and pedigree are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to handicapping horse racing.

Fierceness and Sierra Leone have the two best odds to win the Kentucky Derby in 2024, and rightfully so. Fierceness has the fastest speed out of all the horses at 110 and has won two of his last three races. Sierra Leone on the other hand has been in four races and has three of the four. The only loss was at the 2023 Remsen on a muddy track where Sierra Leone finished in second place.

It is certainly understandable why you would want to bet on either of the top two horses to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby. If everything goes the way it is supposed to go then either Fierceness or Sierra Leone will be the winner, but that does not always happen, so I am going to look in another direction when picking my Kentucky Derby winner.

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At +1000, Just A Touch offers bettors some value. He has only been in three races, but he has finishes of first, second, and second and looked very strong in both races where he was the runner-up. Last year’s winner, Mage, also only had three starts before the Kentucky Derby, so the inexperience can be overcome. While Fierceness has the top speed out of all the contestants, Just A Touch has the fastest average speed of 102. Just A Touch also has championship pedigree being sired by Justify, who is the most recent Triple Crown winner.

Best Kentucky Derby Win Bet: Just A Touch (+1000)

Kentucky Derby Place Bet Prediction

If Just A Touch wins, I do not believe the top two favorites will be far behind. Because of this, when betting on which horse will come in first or second, both Fierceness and Sierra Leone offer some value. It just comes down to which horse you like more.

I am going to give the edge to Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone has been about as consistent as you can find when it comes to placing. In his four starts, he has finished in first or second every time, and the Kentucky Derby should be no different. Sierra Leone also boasts a higher average speed than Fiercenss. Only Just A Touch and Sierra Leone are faster on average than the favorite.

Sierra Leone received the No. 2 post position, which is not an ideal spot, but the horse has the legs and the speed to make up ground if he falls behind early. Sierra Leone’s consistency will continue in the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Best Kentucky Derby Place Bet: Sierra Leone

Kentucky Derby Show Bet Prediction

When Fierceness is on, he is on, but when he is not running at his best, he does not do well. So while he could definitely finish in the top three, if he does not win, I have a hard time seeing him finish third, so there is not much value there.

Instead, when looking for a show bet, it is good to look at a Kentucky Derby longshot. If there is a longshot that you like, betting them to show gives you some more flexibility. One of my favorite longshots for the 2024 Kentucky Derby is Just Steel. Just Steel has a lot of experience with 11 races under his belt, including two wins at Churchill Downs.

Just Steel is fresh off an impressive second-place finish at the Arkansas Derby, losing to Muth, who would be a top contender if he was in the Kentucky Derby this year. Just Steel is worth a look to finish in the top three of this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Best Kentucky Derby Show Bet: Just Steel

Odds to Win 2024 Kentucky Derby

The Kentucky Derby odds list Fierceness as the 5/2 favorite to win in 2024. Sierra Leone is not far behind with +300 odds. A $20 wager on Fierceness to win would result in a payout of $70.

Odds at TwinSpires as of May 3, 2024.

The post Best Bets for Kentucky Derby: Picks for Win, Place & Show appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 150th Kentucky Derby on Saturday will likely see close to $300 million in wagers. Hopefully, I can hit several exotics bets during the busy day at Churchill Downs. We’ll go over some of our picks for today (Saturday) and what to watch for during the Run for the Roses.

Last year, a $2 exacta paid $330.44. Even better, the $.50 trifecta was $491.18, as well as $15,643.65 for a correct $1 superfecta.

There are multiple factors to consider when handicapping the Kentucky Derby. The weather, post positions, jockeys, trainers and previous performances will all have an impact on the odds. It’s great to know how to read horse racing odds and betting programs ahead of the event, which will provide you with essential information about each contender.

The most popular bet on Saturday will be on a single horse to win the race. You can also wager on a horse to place (finish at least 2nd) or show (finish at least 3rd). But the largest tickets are cashed by bettors who successfully create exotic wagers for the 20-horse field.

Field for the 150th Kentucky Derby

These are all of the horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby and the morning line odds. These Kentucky Derby odds will shift based on how bettors react leading up to the race.

1. Dornoch (20-1)
2. Sierra Leone (3-1)
3. Mystik Dan (20-1)
4. Catching Freedom (8-1)
5. Catalytic (30-1)
6. Just Steel (20-1)
7. Honor Marie (20-1)
8. Just a Touch (10-1)
9. Encino (SCR)
10. T O Password (JPN) (30-1)
11. Forever Young (JPN) (10-1)
12. Track Phantom (20-1)
13. West Saratoga (50-1)
14. Endlessly (30-1)
15. Domestic Product (30-1)
16. Grand Mo the First (50-1)
17. Fierceness (5-2)
18. Stronghold (20-1)
19. Resilience (20-1)
20. Society Man (50-1)
21. Epic Ride (30-1)
22. Mugatu (ALT) (30-1)

Fierceness opened as the favorite, with a lot of that having to do with a dominant win in the Florida Derby. It also helps to have John Velazquez as the jockey. Trainer Todd Pletcher has a great chance to winning his third Kentucky Derby with this colt. It drew the No. 17 post, which has never produced a winner. The scratch by Encino has moved him to No. 16.

The other popular pick on Saturday is Sierra Leone. Trainer Chad Brown will be looking for his first Kentucky Derby with the most expensive horse in the field. The jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, is also going for his first derby win, but he has had tons of success at Churchill Downs.

Best Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets

It’s hard to hit an exotic bet in such a large field, especially when a longshot is in the mix. I’m placing several exactas, trifectas and superfectas on Saturday to give myself a chance at a win.

Remember to use all of the different types of wagers to your advantage. You can always key a horse that you think will win or box the entire bet so the horses can finish in any order.

Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks

We have discussed the two strong favorites in the Kentucky Derby, and I will definitely have both in an exacta.

• $5 exacta: Sierra Leone and Fierceness
• $5 exacta box: Fierceness and Catching Freedom
• $5 exacta key: Sierra Leone with Forever Young and Honor Marie

This will give me several chances to hitting a nice ticket. I’m sticking with Fierceness and Sierra Leone, but also adding in another three horses that I think could have a successful trip.

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Catching Freedom is another horse trained by Cox. Flavien Pratt will ride the colt who was bred by WinStar Farm. He will look to close late, just like he did in the Louisiana Derby. Honor Marie wasn’t far behind in that race.

A Japanese horse has yet to win the Run for the Roses, but Forever Young has a real chance at making history. The colt has yet to lose in his five starts, winning the UAE Derby (G2) and the Saudi Derby (G3)

Kentucky Derby Trifecta & Superfecta Picks

It only gets harder as we look into trifectas and superfectas. This is when a longshot can sneak in and ruin a nearly perfect bet. But there’s nothing better than having that getting it right. I recommend including some of the horses we have discussed while adding in surprise.

• $1 trifecta box: Sierra Leone, Just Steel and Catching Freedom
• $1 trifecta key: Fierceness with Honor Marie, Mystik Dan and Just a Touch
• $1 superfecta box: Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Forever Young and Catching Freedom

There’s a chance of rain on Saturday, which would help Mystik Dan become a top contender. Hopefully, one of these exotic bets will hit for a nice pay day. Another longshot to throw in would by Catalytic, who drew the No. 5 post that has produced the most winners. If his odds are long enough on Saturday, I’ll take him across the board just in case.

The Kentucky Derby is the 12th race of the day at Churchill Downs, so there is plenty of action to bet on throughout the day. Try placing a Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 or Pick 5 to correctly pick multiple races in a row.

Sign up on TwinSpires and FanDuel to get in your bets before post time at 6:57 pm ET. Each app has all of the types of horse racing bets that you will need for the big race.

The post Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets – Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks for 2024 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place this Saturday (May 4) with post time set for 6:57pm ET at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is not only an opportunity to break out those flamboyant hats and fascinators, but also one of America’s favorite betting events.

Unlike other top betting events, such as the Super Bowl or March Madness, most of the bets placed on the Kentucky Derby will be done so by individuals who have not watched a single horse race this season – probably many who haven’t seen one since last year’s Kentucky Derby. With that in mind, let me offer my best bets for the Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

I have two horses that I like heading into Saturday, and neither is the favorite Fierceness.

My best bet to win the Kentucky Derby: Sierra Leone (3-1)

While Fierceness has been very up-and-down, Sierra Leone has been nothing but consistently good. (The inconsistent runs is the reason I am out on Fierceness at such a short price.) Sierra Leone enters the Derby as the points leader and has only been beaten once, which was only by a nose.

Sierra Leone is trained by Chad Brown, who does not yet have a win at the Kentucky Derby in seven starts, but he does have one place and one show. Horses trained by Brown have had success at Churchill Downs, though, notching 40 wins in 218 starts. That’s good for an 18% win rate, which is second-best among trainers with more than one start. In simpler words, Brown knows how to prep horses for Churchill Downs.

Another great sign for Sierra Leone is that per Equibase, each of the last nine Kentucky Derby winners have posted a final workout of five furlongs or longer the week prior to the Derby. Sierra Leone is one of 12 horses to get in five or more furlongs in their final workout – Fierceness only put in four furlongs.

If Fierceness is at its best on Saturday, I believe jockey John Velasquez will pick up his fourth Kentucky Derby win. But the odds are too short for a horse who only has three wins in five starts. Sierra Leone at 3-1 odds is the best bet on the board, in my opinion.

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, I also like Dornoch (20-1). This is a horse who has a few wins under its belt and has experience on not only many different tracks but also different types of weather/conditions.

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Weather Could Be a Factor at Churchill Downs

There is currently a 51% chance of rain at Churchill Downs Saturday morning, but the precipitation is expected to stop prior to post time at 6:57pm ET. That doesn’t mean the track will be dry, though. There is a decent chance these horses will be dealing with some sloppy conditions.

If that is the case, we could see some massive Kentucky Derby odds movement ahead of the race. This type of weather would only further my confidence in Sierra Leone, who has raced in muddy conditions with success more than once, and Dornoch, the only horse to beat Sierra Leone thus far, and he did so by a nose in the mud.

Kentucky Derby Odds

• Fierceness: 5-2
• Sierra Leone: 3-1
• Catching Freedom: 8-1
• Forever Young: 10-1
• Just a Touch: 10-1
• T O Password: 10-1
• Dornoch: 20-1
• Honor Marie: 20-1
• Mystik Dan: 20-1
• Resilience: 20-1
• Just Steel: 20-1
• Stronghold: 20-1
• Track Phantom: 20-1
• Domestic Product: 30-1
• Catalytic: 30-1
• Endlessly: 30-1
• Epic Ride: 30-1
• Mugatu: 30-1
• Grand Mo The First: 50-1
• Society Man: 50-1
• West Saratoga: 50-1

Fierceness is the current favorite to win the Kentucky Derby with 5-2 odds, which is the equivalent of +250 American odds. A $5 bet on Fierceness at 5-2 odds would stand to win $12.50 and return $17.50, whereas a $10 bet would potentially profit $25 and return $35. Based off the 5-2 odds, Fierceness has a 28.6% chance to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

The next-best odds belong to Sierra Leone, who is listed at 3-1, which is the same as +300 American odds. A $5 bet on Sierra Leone at 3-1 odds would potentially win you $15 and return $20. Sierra Leone’s probability of winning the Derby is 25%.

The horses with the worst odds to win right now are Grand Mo The First, Society Man, and West Saratoga, who are each getting 50-1 odds. A $5 bet on any of those three horses at 50-1 odds would win you $250 and return $255. But keep in mind the payout is so big because the oddsmakers feel it’s highly unlikely any of these three horses win. Based on the odds, each only has a 2% chance to win.

If you don’t have a racebook you are already using, check out our favorite horse racing betting apps to get in on the action!

The odds above are from TwinSpires and are accurate as of Friday, May 3. 

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