• UFC 328 takes place Saturday, May 9th from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
• Khamzat Chimaev defends his middleweight title against Sean Strickland in a grudge match main event
• Check out the early UFC 328 odds, predictions and best value below

UFC 328 might be the best card of the year. Two title fights, a stacked main card, and a legitimate grudge match at the top of the bill. Khamzat Chimaev makes his first middleweight title defense against former champ Sean Strickland, and these two genuinely do not like each other.

The co-main features Joshua Van making his first flyweight title defense against Tatsuro Taira. The early prelims start at 5 pm ET on Paramount+, with prelims at 7 pm ET and the main card at 9 pm ET.

Here are the early UFC 328 odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC 328 Odds

Chimaev is a -550 favorite in the main event. That’s an implied probability of 84.6% for the champ. The biggest favorite on the card is Gautier at -1350 over Ozzy Diaz. The flyweight title fight is the most interesting line on the board with Van as the +145 underdog despite being the defending champion.

Green at -345 over Stephens is steep given Green’s inconsistency over the years, but Stephens has one win in his last 10 fights so it’s hard to argue the other side. Brady vs Buckley at -180/+150 is a solid main card fight that could go either way.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Odds as of May 5th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC 328 or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Chimaev vs Strickland Prediction

Chimaev (15-0) is one of the most physically dominant fighters in UFC history. His wrestling is suffocating. He averaged 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his UFC career and landed 12 of 17 against Dricus du Plessis to win the belt, racking up over 21 minutes of control time in a 25-minute fight.

Strickland (30-7) is the better striker and has the cardio to go five hard rounds. He just dominated Anthony Hernandez, a pressure grappler, by stuffing every takedown attempt and keeping the fight standing. But Chimaev is a different animal than Hernandez.

Tale of the Tape

The question is whether Strickland can keep this standing long enough to make Chimaev work. Strickland only gave up about two minutes of control time against du Plessis despite being taken down six times. He scrambles well and doesn’t stay on his back.

But the Burns and Usman fights showed that Chimaev can be pushed into deep waters when an opponent makes him work. Both of those were at welterweight, which matters, but the cardio concern is real. If Strickland survives the first two rounds, he could turn this into a war of attrition in the championship rounds.

I think Chimaev’s wrestling is too much in the early rounds. He should be able to control the fight from the top for the first 15 minutes and build a lead that Strickland can’t overcome. At -550, the moneyline is unplayable, but I expect Chimaev to win a decision.

• Chimaev vs Strickland Early Pick: Chimaev by Decision (price TBD)

Early Van vs Taira Prediction

This is the fight I’m most excited about on the card. Van (16-2) is the defending flyweight champ but he’s listed as the underdog at +145. That’s a wild line for a sitting champion with a six-fight winning streak.

Van won the belt when Pantoja broke his arm early in their fight, so the “paper champ” narrative is following him. But he was dominant before that, including a decision win over Brandon Royval, the same fighter who handed Taira his only loss.

Van is a cardio machine who lands 8.84 significant strikes per minute. That volume is insane at flyweight. He drowns opponents with output and never slows down. The concern is he absorbs 6.39 per minute, which is a lot of damage over a five-round fight.

Taira (18-1) averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and has elite grappling. If he gets Van down and locks in the body triangle, it could be over quick. He finished Brandon Moreno with ground-and-pound and submitted HyunSung Park with a face crank. The grappling is world class.

I think Van’s volume and pace give Taira problems, especially in the later rounds. Taira’s entries will get sloppier as the fight goes on, and Van is the type of fighter who gets better in rounds four and five. At +145, the champ is the value play.

• Van vs Taira Early Pick: Joshua Van Moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)

Other UFC 328 Predictions

Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta:

Volkov is 6’7″ with a three-inch height advantage and two extra inches of reach. He almost never loses pure striking fights and has only been knocked out twice in 50 professional bouts, both times before 2019.

Waldo has three straight knockouts and is riding momentum, but his best wins are Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac. This is a massive step up. Volkov should jab and range-fight his way to a decision. At -175, the price is fair for the better fighter.

• Pick: Alexander Volkov (-175)

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley:

Brady is one of the best wrestlers at welterweight. He landed 17 takedowns across his last three fights before the Morales loss, including five-plus in each of those bouts against Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, and Kelvin Gastelum. His top pressure is suffocating.

Buckley has knockout power with 15 career wins by KO, but his grappling defense was exposed by Kamaru Usman, who controlled him for nearly 13 minutes. I expect Brady to follow the same blueprint. Buckley’s win condition is too narrow in a three-round fight.

• Pick: Sean Brady (-180)

Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez:

Amosov (29-1) is a former Bellator champion who paused his career to defend his hometown during the war in Ukraine. He submitted Neil Magny in his UFC debut. The chain wrestling and top game are elite.

Alvarez is dangerous with violent offense and legitimate finishing ability, but his takedown defense is suspect. Before the Luque fight, he had essentially 0% TDD and mostly got taken down before subbing people from guard or off scrambles. Amosov’s grappling is a tier above that. I expect Amosov to control this fight on the mat.

• Pick: Yaroslav Amosov by Decision (price TBD)

King Green vs Jeremy Stephens:

Stephens has one win in his last 10 fights. His last UFC victory was a knockout of Josh Emmett back in February 2018. He showed he can still generate offense in the Mason Jones fight, but his defense and footwork have fallen off a cliff.

Green just knocked out Daniel Zellhuber in the second round in Mexico City. He’s faster, more technical, and showed he can wrestle when needed with three takedowns in that fight. At -345, the moneyline is too steep, but Green should handle Stephens without much trouble. The method of victory props are the better play here.

• Pick: King Green by KO/TKO (price TBD)

Mateusz Rebecki vs Grant Dawson:

This fight is binary. Either Dawson gets his takedowns and blankets Rebecki for a boring decision, or Rebecki catches him early and puts him out. Dawson has poor striking defense and has been hurt or dropped in recent fights. Rebecki is a stocky power puncher who sets an insane pace and never stops coming forward.

Dawson often spends too long striking before committing to the wrestling, and that early window is dangerous against a guy like Rebecki. I think Rebecki catches him. This is close enough at +145 that I’m comfortable taking the underdog.

• Pick: Mateusz Rebecki (+145)

Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis:

Sabatini looked like a different fighter in his last outing, completely mauling Chepe Mariscal with his wrestling. Gomis is a back-foot counterstriker with low volume, which is the exact style Sabatini can exploit by chain wrestling for 15 minutes.

The only danger is Gomis clipping him with a knee or head kick on an entry, but Sabatini’s improved level changes should limit that risk. At -205, this is one of the safer favorites on the card.

• Pick: Pat Sabatini (-205)

Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz:

Gautier is -1350 and for good reason. He has eight KO/TKO wins in 10 career victories and finished three of his first four UFC opponents in the first round. Diaz is coming off a decision win over Djorden Santos, but he gets hit too clean and doesn’t hold up against power punchers.

The -1350 moneyline is obviously untouchable. The play here is Gautier by KO in the first round if the props offer any value.

• Pick: Ateba Gautier by KO Round 1 (price TBD)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC 328 Early Value

The best value on the card is Van at +145 in the co-main. A defending champion with a six-fight win streak getting plus money is rare, and his volume gives Taira real problems in the later rounds. If you like the champ, now is the time to grab it before the line moves.

Rebecki at +145 is another plus-money play worth looking at. Dawson’s striking defense is a liability, and Rebecki has the power and pressure to capitalize early. Brady at -180 against Buckley is one of the more reliable favorites on the main card given his wrestling pedigree. Those are your best early UFC 328 bets.

The post Early UFC 328 Odds, Predictions: Chimaev vs Strickland Card Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Saturday’s UFC Perth is headlined by the Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates welterweight fight
• Della Maddalena is coming off a 5 round decision loss to Islam Makhachev, his lone UFC defeat
• See the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates and more

The UFC is back in Australia Saturday, meaning you can enjoy some championship-level mixed martial arts with your morning coffee. The card is headlined by the Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates welterweight bout, with the Aussie listed as a small underdog by online sportsbooks.

The UFC Perth prelims get underway at 4 am ET on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 7 am ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC Perth predictions, picks and odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates and more.

UFC Perth Main Card Odds

Odds as of May 1 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Perth on Saturday.

As of Friday afternoon, the Australian Della Maddalena is a +105 underdog to the Brazilian. This line feels like it’s being inflated by Della Maddalena’s title loss to Islam Makhachev. While the Aussie was busy battling one of the all-time greats, Prates has been stacking wins against inferior competition. The Brazilian is coming off back-to-back knockout victories, but that doesn’t mean he should be favored in this matchup.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

UFC Perth Predictions: Della Maddalena Moneyline

Having said that, I’ll gladly take plus-money odds on who I perceive to be the better fighter. It also doesn’t hurt that he’ll be fighting in front of his home country fans.

Prates may be a devastating Muay Thai specialist with a sizeable reach advantage, but Della Maddalena is considered the superior technical boxer. Prates has shown he can be very hittable in previous bouts, and Della Maddalena’s ability to overwhelm opponents in tight can exploit Prates’ tendency to become stationary under pressure.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates Tale of the Tape

Unlike Prates’ recent opponents who were caught by knockout blows, Della Maddalena is known for his high-level defense, even in furious exchanges. He’s able to maintain a strong guard without sacrificing offensive volume, which will be necessary to survive Prates’ power.

The Aussie hasn’t been knocked out in a decade, and averages two more significant strikes per minute than his opponent, who’s been finished in five of his seven defeats.

• UFC Perth Picks #1: Jack Della Maddalena Moneyline (+105 at Bet365)

UFC Perth Predictions: Gaziev Moneyline

In addition to backing one Aussie in Della Maddalena, I’m also fading Australian Brando Pericic. The 6-5, 261-pounder is a favorite over Shamil Gaziev in their heavyweight bout, which is disrespectful to the much more seasoned fighter. Pericic has only two UFC bouts on his resume, while Gaziev is viewed as a gatekeeper of the division.

Gaziev enters the fight with an 86% finishing rate, and can find success by getting in close and pressuring the Aussie. Pericic wants to keep this fight at a distance, to maximize his kickboxing skills, but Gaziev will do everything he can to muddy this fight up. I trust the veteran to turn this bout into a close strike war or wrestling test, which favors him and is the exact type of fight Pericic wants to avoid.

• UFC Perth Picks #2: Shamil Gaziev (+115 at Bet365)

The post UFC Perth Predictions, Picks & Odds for Della Maddalena vs Prates Card appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight fight
• Sterling is 4-0 in bouts that have reached championship rounds
• See the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Sterling vs Zalal and more

UFC Fight Night is back in Vegas tonight, for a 13-fight card headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight bout. Online sportsbooks are siding with Zalal by a small margin, which I believe opens up value on Sterling, the much more experienced and decorated fighter.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for Sterling vs Zalal and more.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of April 25 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

As of Saturday afternoon, Zalal is a -135 moneyline favorite, with Sterling coming back as a +114 underdog. This will mark Zalal’s first 5 round bout of this UFC tenure, while Sterling is 4-0 in fights that reach the championship rounds. That’s important because online sportsbooks expect this fight to go the distance, pegging over 4.5 rounds at -195 odds.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Sterling Moneyline

The striking stats for these two fighters are similar, with Sterling landing slightly more volume, but Zalal boasting the better chin. Neither of these fighters want to decide things on their feet however, as both are accomplished grapplers.

Since returning to the UFC, Zalal has dominated on the ground on his way to five victories, four by submission. He’s had his way with less accomplished wrestlers but he won’t have that luxury tonight.

Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal Tale of the Tape

Sterling is the superior grappler of the two, posting a 65% control rate on the ground while averaging over 5 takedown attempts per 5 minutes. Zalal’s stats aren’t that far behind, but what separates them is Sterling’s ability to operate on his back. Even if Zalal manages to take him down, Sterling has the ability to flip the switch in an instant from his back.

Sterling also has the luxury of not having to cut as much weight, having just moved up to this class. He should boast a cardio advantage having fought many lengthy battles before, and has a much better resume than his opponent. Sterling has shared the Octagon with some of the best bantamweights and now is doing the same with the top featherweights.

Zalal on the other hand, has beaten up on an inferior batch of fighters and has yet to be tested. This bout profiles as an exciting, pretty evenly matched bout, creating a ton of value on Sterling at his plus-money price tag.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #1: Aljamain Sterling Moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Buchecha vs Spann Winning Round

In addition to Sterling, I’m also betting that the heavyweight bout between Marcus Buchecha and Ryan Spann ends in Round 1. That’s a common theme in Spann’s fights, as eight of his 11 bouts haven’t made it out of the opening round.

That streak is likely to extend tonight, as Spann is taking this fight on very short notice which will put his questionable cardio even more in the spotlight. The American is either going to finish his opponent early, or gas out and succumb most likely to a submission.

Buchecha is certainly capable of finishing Spann early, as all five of his victories have come by finish in Round 1. One of the most accomplished BJJ fighters in the promotion, Buchecha has struggled in his short UFC tenure, but a date with a man that’s going to sell out to stop him could be just what he needs. All it takes in wrong move by Spann, and Buchecha can put him in a pretzel, earning his fifth career submission victory.

• UFC Fight Night Pick #2: Buchecha vs Spann Winning Round (+100 at Bet365)

The post UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Sterling vs Zalal appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Saturday’s UFC Las Vegas Prelims feature 7 fights, including the Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden bantamweight bout
• Durden is 1-6 in his last seven fights, losing inside the distance four times
• See my UFC Las Vegas Prelims predictions & picks, along with my best bets including Filho vs Durden

The UFC is back in Vegas on Saturday for a 13-fight card, headlined by the Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal featherweight bout. That fight is the main course, but before we can even think about breaking down that bout or any of the other five Main Card fights, we have to explore the prelims.

The appetizer so to speak, features seven bouts, with the Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden bantamweight matchup being my favorite fight to target. Durden will enter the Octagon in miserable form, and I’m expecting Filho to put the nail in his coffin, potentially ending his UFC tenure.

The UFC Las Vegas Prelims are set to get underway at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Las Vegas Prelims predictions & picks, along with my best bets including Filho vs Durden and more.

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Jafel Filho Method of Victory

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #1: Jafel Filho to win by Submission (-115 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

The way I see it, the Filho vs Durden fight is going to end one way. With Filho submitting his opponent. That’s how he’s won each of his three fights in the promotion, and the Brazilian has a long history of making his opponents tap.

Filho boasts 11 submissions on his 17-win professional resume. He averages over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and once he gets you on the mat, he’s got the wrestling pedigree to put his opponents in a pretzel.

Durden, meanwhile, is on his last legs. He’s dropped six of his past seven fights, losing inside the distance four times. The American is as battle-tested as they come in the bantamweight division, but his durability is shot, and he’s suffered losses in recent bouts to fighters that he would have annihilated in his prime.

Filho may only have five UFC fights under his belt, but he’s proven that he’ll submit anyone who can’t match his skill level. His only losses have been to top contenders, and I bet he makes quick work of the washed-up Durden.

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Talita Alencar Moneyline

• UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #2: Talita Alencar Moneyline (+210 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Next up, I’m backing a plus-money dog in the women’s strawweight dvision. Talita Alencar is catching +210 odds to upset Julia Polastri, who’s consistently been one of the most overrated fighters in the divison.

Polastri has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC, and is being overvalued by the market thanks to her knockout win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz last fall. Yes, it was an impressive victory, but outside of that bout her results have been middling.

“Psycho” has yet to be finished as a professional, but she is very hittable. Polastri absorbs 5.4 significant strikes per minute, and that’s a recipe for disaster against the hard-hitting Alencar.

Alencar is coming off a finish of her own, improving her record to 3-1 in the UFC, and 7-1-1 as a professional. She’s got an excellent grappling background and a punishing ground and pound attack. I think she’s live not only to beat Polastri, but also to be the first woman to finish her.

UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions: Max Griffin by Decision

• UFC Las Vegas Prelims Pick #3: Max Griffin by Decision (+200 at Bet365)

Finally, I’m backing one of the most battle-tested welterweights ever in Max Griffin over Victor Valenzuela. Griffin is an incredibly boring watch, but he’s seen it all over the course of his 18-fight UFC career. His sizeable height and reach advantage will allow him to keep the fight at a distance he can control, and he’ll punish the overly aggressive Valenzuela every time he gets out of line.

Valenzuela is simply not worthy of this stage. He’s only one fight removed from a brutal knockout loss on the Contender Series, and you could argue he’s only in the promotion to fill out the numbers at this point. Valenzuela made a name for himself by stacking wins under the banner of inferior promotions, and his rude awakening to the UFC will continue against the cagey veteran Griffin.

The post UFC Las Vegas Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Filho vs Durden appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Tonight’s UFC Winnipeg is headlined by the Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott welterweight fight
• This bout will mark Burns’ sixth straight five round fight, and the first for Malott
• See the UFC Winnipeg odds below, plus my main card predictions for Burns vs Malott and more

The UFC is back in Canada tonight, so it’s only fitting that a Canuck is headlining UFC Winnipeg. The honor goes to Ontario native Mike Malott, who’s a sizeable favorite over Gilbert Burns in their welterweight bout. Personally, I think the price on Burns is a slap in the face, and I’ll be looking to back him on the moneyline as a result.

The UFC Winnipeg prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the UFC Winnipeg odds, plus main card predictions for Burns vs Malott and more.

UFC Winnipeg Main Card Odds

Odds as of April 18 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Winnipeg on Saturday.

Malott is currently a heavy -270 moneyline favorite, with Burns coming back as a +220 underdog. The total rounds is set at 2.5 with the juice slightly shaded to the under, and I think betting the over also makes sense given Burns’ pedigree and Malott’s questionable grappling defense.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Winnipeg Main Card Predictions: Gilbert Burns Moneyline

Although tempted by over 2.5 rounds, I’ll stick with Burns’ moneyline as my official UFC Winnipeg main card prediction. Burns is a former top title contender in the welterweight division, and although he’s dropped three straight fights, all have been to either current or former champions.

At age 39, he’s getting a little long in the tooth, but there are a couple reasons to grab his moneyline in this matchup. Let’s start with his grappling prowess. He is a former BJJ World Champion, and averages double the amount of takedowns as his opponent. Once on the mat, he has the skill to keep Malott there, and on the ground is typically where Malott racks up the bulk of his points.

Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott Tale of the Tape

Then there’s the stamina advantage that Burns brings into the octagon. He boasts a significantly better engine than Malott, who’s looked gassed every time he’s exceeded 2 rounds let alone 4. His lone loss in the promotion came when he could barely stand up in the final round, and this fight will be a five-round battle.

Burns has plenty of experience at that distance while Malott has none. Each of Burns’ last six fights have been headline or five round bouts, while this will be the first of Malott’s career. Yes, the Canadian is younger and faster than his opponent, but unless he catches Burns early his cardio is going to get exposed. Burns is too savvy for that to happen, and I expect him to grind out a decision victory, mostly from points racked up on the mat.

• UFC Winnipeg Pick #1: Gilbert Burns Moneyline (+220 at DraftKings)

UFC Winnipeg Main Card Predictions: Charles Jourdain Moneyline

While I’m betting against Malott in the headline bout, I’m backing Canadian Charles Jourdain versus Kyler Phillips. Jourdain has looked like an absolute wrecking ball since dropping down to 135 pounds, completely destroying his first two opponents.

The Canadian is a dynamic striker who isn’t afraid to slug it out on his feet, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he simply dropped Phillips. The American has looked lifeless in back to back losses to bottom tier opponents, and is fight IQ has never been his strength. Jourdain’s physicality and aggressiveness should overwhelm Phillips, and I don’t mind taking the Canadian to win by KO, TKO or submission at +250 as well.

• UFC Winnipeg Pick #2: Charles Jourdain Moneyline (-125 at Bet365), Jourdain by KO, TKO or Submission (+250 at Bet365)

The post UFC Winnipeg Odds & Main Card Predictions – Burns vs Malott appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Saturday’s UFC Winnipeg Prelims feature six fights, including John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin
• Castaneda is looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses
• See my UFC Winnipeg Prelims picks and predictions, including best bets for Castaneda vs Vologdin and more

The UFC returns to Canada tonight with an action packed card in Winnipeg headlined by the Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott welterweight belt. Before the Winnipeg fans can sweat the six Main Card fights, they’ll be treated to six prelim bouts, and those matchups feature plenty of betting opportunities for us to take advantage of.

My favorite fight to target is the John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin catchweight bout, as I see real value on Castandea to snap a mini-two fight losing streak and score a victory.

The UFC Winnipeg Prelims are set to get underway at 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Winnipeg Prelims picks and predictions, along with my best bets for Castaneda vs Vologdin and more.

UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: John Castaneda Moneyline

• UFC Winnipeg Prelims Prediction #1: John Castaneda Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

There are going to be a lot of people tempted to bet on Vologdin tonight. After all, he’s coming off arguably the best Contender Series fight of all-time, and one of the most exciting bouts at any level in 2025. Vologdin and Adrian Luna Martinetti combined for nearly 300 strikes in an epic war, with Vologdin coming up just short on the judges scorecards. Speaking of short, that’s exactly what Vologdin is at only 5’3″, and I expect him to have trouble overcoming the size disparity in this fight.

Vologdin will try to force his way inside and strike from close range, but Castaneda is a veteran of many wars, and has enough striking skill and savvy to keep him away. Castaneda is also a much more skilled grappler, and Vologdin is very susceptible takedowns, while looking lost on the mat.

Castaneda may not have the power to knock the Russian fire hydrant out, but he can pick him apart on their feet, and pile up the points on the ground to score a decision victory.

UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: Jamey-Lyn Horth Method of Victory

• UFC Winnipeg Prelims Prediction #2: Jamey-Lyn Horth to Win by Decision (-105 at DraftKings)

We can’t have a UFC Winnipeg betting card of any sort without at least one Canadian selection, and one of my favorite Canucks to score a victory tonight is Jamey-Lyn Horth. The 36-year-old is getting a little long in the tooth for the Women’s flyweight division, but she’s a bigger, stronger, more powerful fighter than her opponent JJ Aldrich. The American doesn’t do anything particularly well, and has proven to be very hittable.

Aldrich absorbs 4.32 strikes per minute, nearly twice as many as Horth. She isn’t much of a wrestler either boasting significantly worse takedown accuracy (26%) and defense (67%) stats than Horth.

Despite her underwhelming stats, Aldrich has only been knocked out in one of her 20 professional fights. Horth is coming off a finish in her last bout, but she’s much more likely to go the distance in this fight, scoring the more powerful strikes, and dominating any time spent on the mat.

UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks: Gokhan Saricam Parlay

• UFC Winnipeg Prelims Prediction #3: Gokhan Saricam to Win by KO, TKO or DQ + Under 2.5 Rounds (+300 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Finally, we’re going to take advantage of a Bet365 boost to back Gokhan Saricam to knock out Canadian Tanner Boser in under 2.5 rounds. The wager is being boosted form +275 to +300 for us, and there’s a case to make that the Turk could finish Boser in the 1st.

Saricam has a clear advantage in power and finishing ability, and carries a big size advantage in this fight. He’s also a much more accomplished wrestler, with a vicious ground and pound attack.

As for Boser, he hasn’t fought in nearly three years and is undersized for the heavyweight division. His strikes don’t carry enough pop to damage his bigger opponent, and he was brutally finished in his last defeat.

The post UFC Winnipeg Prelims Picks & Predictions – Best Bets Include Castaneda vs Vologdin appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Tonight’s UFC 327 is headlined by the Jiri Prochaza vs Carlos Ulberg light heavyweight title bout
• Roughly 75% of the moneyline bets are on Prochaza, but the line is moving towards Ulberg
• See my final UFC 327 predictions and picks, plus the latest odds for the Prochazka vs Ulberg Main Card

The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line tonight at UFC 327, as former champ Jiri Prochazka takes on Carlos Ulberg. Prochazka is currently listed as a -120 moneyline favorite, which is down about 12 cents since opening odds were released.

The UFC 327 prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 9:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are my final UFC 327 predictions and picks, plus the latest odds for the Prochazka vs Ulberg main card.

Latest UFC 327 Odds

Odds as of April 11 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC 327 on Saturday.

What’s fascinating about the Prochazka vs Ulberg odds movement is that the line is moving towards Ulberg despite Prochazka receiving roughly 75% of the moneyline bets so far. That means big money bettors are backing Ulberg, and those who wager the most are usually the professionals.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC 327 Final Predictions: Carlos Ulberg Moneyline

I’m following the perceived professional steam on Ulberg, and betting his moneyline. He’s 10-1 in the UFC to date, and enters this bout on a nine-fight winning streak. However, I’ll be the first to admit this is not a slam dunk.

Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg Tale of the Tape

That’s because Ulberg excels in clean fights, but can lose his composure when things get chaotic. Prochazka’s fighting style epitomizes chaos, often striking at weird and unpredictable angles.

Another issue to consider is Ulberg’s engine, as he’s never been tested over five rounds. His opponent, on the other hand, has a ton of experience in championship-level bouts. There’s also some concern that Ulberg hasn’t faced a ton of high-level grapplers, but he does boast an 87% takedown defense rate. He also outwrestled Da Woon Jung, the one man who’s taken him to the mat so far.

While all of those concerns are valid, there’s also plenty to like about Ulberg. He’s the cleaner, more composed striker, and Prochazka’s durability isn’t exactly elite. He’s suffered four knockout losses in his career and has been knocked down or stunned plenty of other times.

Prochazka also has a track record of starting slow, even losing multiple early rounds in fights before battling back and stealing a victory. You can only play with fire so many times before it burns you, and I’m banking on Ulberg exposing his opponent’s poor striking defense by jumping on him early and scoring a victory.

• UFC 327 Final Pick #1: Carlos Ulberg Moneyline (+100 at Bet365)

UFC 327 Final Predictions: Josh Hokit Moneyline

Another fascinating odds movement case is going on in the Curtis Blaydes versus Josh Hokit heavyweight bout. Blaydes opened as roughly a -122 moneyline favorite, but is now an underdog at some sportsbooks. One exception is at Bet365, where Hokit is still a small ‘dog, and that’s where I’ll be betting on the former NFL practice squad player.

Hokit is the smaller man, but he’s much younger and significantly faster. He’s undefeated in eight professional fights, including three at the UFC level, finishing his opponent each time out. In addition to almost making it as a football player, he’s also a former collegiate wrestler, and there are major concerns about Blaydes.

For starters, he’s been finished twice in his last four fights, each time in the opening round. He also suffered an MCL injury in his last bout, and that’s a tough issue to overcome as a 260-pound human.

What Hokit gives up in power to Blaydes, he makes up for in quickness and durability. As a fighter on the rise, I expect him to emerge victorious in this bout, and to continue to climb the heavyweight ladder.

• UFC 327 Final Pick #2: Josh Hokit (-105 at Bet365)

The post Final UFC 327 Predictions, Picks & Latest Odds – Prochazka vs Ulberg Main Card appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The highly anticipated main event of UFC 327 features a thrilling light heavyweight title clash between Jiri “BJP” Prochazka and Carlos “Black Jag” Ulberg. With the 205-pound championship on the line, the number two ranked Prochazka enters with a formidable 32-5-1 record. He faces off against the number three ranked Ulberg, who steps into the Octagon boasting an impressive 14-1 standing. Both men are heavy-handed elite contenders looking to capture the ultimate prize in their division.

Watch UFC 327 on CBS and Paramount+.

As the MMA world turns its attention to Miami, fans will not want to miss a single second of the action. Continue reading to find out everything you need to know to catch this massive championship bout. We cover the exact start time, location details, TV channel assignments, and the best streaming options available for fight night.

When is UFC 327? What time does Prochazka vs Ulberg start?

UFC 327 takes place on April 11, 2026. This massive night of elite mixed martial arts action brings fans an unforgettable experience. A full slate of preliminary bouts will build momentum earlier in the evening starting at 5:30 PM ET, leading up to the highly anticipated five-round championship finale.

Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg are expected to make their walks to the Octagon for the light heavyweight title clash at approximately 10:20 PM ET. Exact walkout times for the main event are subject to change depending on the length of the earlier fights on the card.

Where is UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg?

The highly anticipated UFC 327 event is set to take place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. Serving as the epicenter for this monumental mixed martial arts card, the arena will provide an electric atmosphere for the evening’s matchups.

As Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg make their walks to the Octagon to battle for the light heavyweight crown, the vibrant Miami crowd will be the perfect backdrop. The Kaseya Center promises to deliver an unforgettable night of championship action for everyone tuning in.

How can I watch UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg?

Fans looking to catch the live coverage of this blockbuster light heavyweight title fight can tune in to CBS for the main card broadcast. The marquee matchups, including the Prochazka vs Ulberg championship bout, will air live on CBS, making it accessible to viewers with a standard television package or digital antenna.

The live broadcast will capture every moment from Miami as Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg battle for the division crown. With the main event scheduled for five rounds of high-stakes action, confirm your CBS access early so you are fully locked in when these contenders step into the cage.

How can I stream UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg?

Paramount+ is the exclusive streaming partner of UFC, making it the premier destination to watch UFC 327. To stream the event, simply navigate to the Paramount+ official website or download the app on your preferred smart TV, mobile device, or gaming console. Creating an account is quick and easy by following the on-screen prompts to select a subscription tier.

However, the premier way to stream the entire UFC 327 event, including the prelims and the main card, is through Paramount+, CBS’s dedicated streaming service. To stream the UFC action on Paramount+, simply navigate to their official website or download the app on your preferred smart TV, mobile device, or gaming console. Creating an account is quick and easy by following the on-screen prompts to select a subscription tier.

Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg Odds

Odds from bet365 Sportsbook on April 10th.

Prochazka enters as a slight favorite at -120 after finishing both Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree by KO/TKO in the third round of his last two outings. He posted a 74.14% significant strike accuracy in the third round against Hill and a 66.20% clip in his finish of Rountree, showcasing his ability to ramp up output as fights progress. His 203cm reach also gives him a 7cm advantage over Ulberg’s 196cm.

Still, the +100 moneyline on Ulberg signals oddsmakers view this as nearly a coin flip. The New Zealand native rides an eight-fight win streak, with five of those victories coming by first-round KO/TKO, including a 64.71% significant strike rate in his stoppage of Dominick Reyes. The over/under of 2.5 rounds leaning slightly toward the under (-125) reflects the knockout power both men possess, making an early finish a very real possibility.

The post How to Watch UFC 327: Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Saturday’s UFC 327 Prelims feature seven fights, including Kevin Holland vs Randy Brown
• Holland is looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses
• See my UFC 327 Prelims predictions and picks for Holland vs Brown and more

UFC 327 goes down Saturday night in Miami, headlined by the Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg light heavyweight title fight. Before we get to the main course however, we have to discuss a seven-fight Prelims card loaded with betting opportunities.

My favorite fight to target is the Kevin Holland vs Randy Brown welterweight bout, as I see real value on Holland to snap a mini-two fight losing streak and score a victory.

The UFC 327 Prelims are set to get underway at 5:45 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 9:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC 327 Prelims predictions and picks for Holland vs Brown and more.

UFC 327 Prelims Predictions: Kevin Holland Moneyline

• UFC 327 Pick #1: Kevin Holland Moneyline (-105 at Bet365)

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

Holland may have dropped two straight fights, but you can poke holes in each result. He took a bout versus Daniel Rodriguez on short notice, and went toe-to-toe with him just six weeks after his previous fight. He then lost a decision to Mike Malott, in a fight where his opponent should have been disqualified for multiple low blows. Those shots clearly affected Holland, who chose to gut it out as opposed to throwing in the towel.

Since then, he’s had a full six months off to recover, and should be more well rested than he’s been in years. At age 33, he’s entering his fighting prime, and can use his massive reach to its full advantage versus Brown.

As for Brown, while Holland is used to taking on some of the best the UFC has to offer, Rude Boy’s resume has been padded by taking down lower tier fighters. Brown has dropped two of his last three fights, and was knocked down in the other.

Neither one of these two are looking to spend much time of the mat, so this could turn into a stand up war. That suits Holland just fine, who’s proven he’s got one of the most durable chins in the division. Holland can dictate range in this fight, forcing Brown to operate outside of a typical boxing distance which is his strength.

UFC 327 Prelims Predictions: Francisco Prado Method of Victory

• UFC 327 Pick #2: Francisco Prado to Win by KO/TKO or DQ (+240 at DraftKings)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Next up, I’m betting Francisco Prado to knock out Charles Radtke. The ladder has been finished in both of his losses, while his four wins have come versus some of the welterweight’s least talented fighters.

The knock on Prado has been his size, but he’s just 23-years-old and reports are that he’s added some muscle to his frame since his last fight. He’s never been finished in his five career UFC bouts, and boasts a superior engine to his opponent. I’m banking on that coming into play on Saturday, as Prado will withstand Radtke’s early pressure, before finishing him late.

UFC 327 Prelims Predictions: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline

• UFC 327 Pick #3: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline (-190 at Bet365)

Finally, I’m also banking on Mateusz Gamrot’s elite wrestling skills to carry him to a win over up and coming Esteban Ribovics. The ladder is a very exciting prospect at 155 pounds, fresh off three straight “Fight of the Night” peformances.

However, this will be his first time facing a top-10 fighter in the lightweight division, while Gamrot is much more battle tested having fought the best of the best in the class.

Ribovics is a dangerous striker who does virtually all of his damage on his feet. The problem is, we’ve never seen him against a wrestler of Gamrot’s caliber. Gamrot’s grappling is so dominant that it puts opponents on their heels, as they’re constantly worried about making a mistake that sees them wind up on the ground.

Gamrot will inevitably get his opponent to the mat and when he does, Ribovics is going to spend a ton of time on his back. The control Gamrot demonstrates on the ground is suffocating, and it will result in either a submission, or enough points to carry him to a decision.

The post UFC 327 Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Holland vs Brown appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• UFC 327 takes place Saturday night at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• The main event is headlined by Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg in a light heavyweight title bout
• Below, see our UFC 327 DFS picks with ownership projections, lineup, and strategy

A big Saturday night is in store down in South Beach, as UFC 327 takes center stage at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

The light heavyweight title bout between Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg headlines the card, but there’s plenty of intrigue throughout the rest of the slate. That’s where we’ll focus, breaking down our UFC 327 DFS picks with ownership projections, lineup builds, and strategy.

UFC 327 DFS Picks and Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of fight week. Lock in your UFC 327 DFS picks at the best DFS sites and apps before the opening bell.

UFC 327 Top Play

Carlos Ulberg ($8,000 at DraftKings)

In the main event, I’m leaning toward having more exposure to Carlos Ulberg. He’s the more efficient striker, landing more significant strikes per minute while also defending them at a higher rate.

From a grappling standpoint, these two are fairly comparable, but Ulberg holds the edge with an 85% takedown defense rate compared to Procházka’s 68%. That could be key in keeping this fight where he’s most comfortable.

Ownership should come in fairly similar on both sides, likely somewhere around the sub-40% range, but Ulberg offers slightly better value at this price point.

DRAFTKINGS PICK6

Offer

T&Cs

Play $5 & Get $50 Instantly in Bonus Picks!

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT). 18+ (19+ AL/NE, 21+ AZ/MA/VA). Valid only where Pick6 operates, see dkng.co/pick6states. Void in NY, ONT, and where prohibited. Eligibility restrictions apply. 1 per new DraftKings customer. First $5+ paid Pick Set to receive max. $50 issued as non-withdrawable Bonus Picks that expire in 14 days (336 hours). Ends 6/19/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Terms: pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Sponsored by DraftKings. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

NEW CUSTOMERS

PLAY $5
GET $50 INSTANTLY

CLAIM NOW

UFC 327 Value Pick

Josh Hokit ($7,800 at DraftKings)

The undefeated Josh Hokit (8-0) should continue to make noise this weekend in his heavyweight bout against veteran Curtis Blaydes.

Both fighters see over 60% of their wins come by knockout, but Hokit adds another layer with a 38% submission rate. None of his fights have gone to a decision, while Blaydes has seen 32% of his bouts reach the judges.

Hokit is also the more active striker, landing 6.07 significant strikes per minute compared to Blaydes’ 3.56, while holding the edge in striking defense at 66% to 58%.

With power on the feet and real grappling upside, Hokit is one of the more appealing options on the slate. At $7,800, he stands out as one of the better bang for your bucks on the card.

UFC 327 Salary Saver

Patricio Pitbull ($7,000 at DraftKings)

Certainly not the most attractive option, but at $7,000, the 38-year-old is worth mixing into lineups to open up salary for higher-end fighters.

The Brazilian owns a 37-8 record with an average fight time north of 16 minutes. His opponent, Aaron Pico, is 13-5 in his career, with 69% of his wins coming by KO/TKO and an average fight time of just over three minutes.

Pico is likely to be a popular play across DFS contests, which limits the leverage on his side. While an explosive performance from Pitbull isn’t the expectation, his experience and durability could allow him to survive long enough to accumulate points and return value at this $7,000 price tag.

UNDERDOG DFS

Offer

T&Cs

Play $5 Fantasy Entries & Get $50 in Bonus Fantasy Entries at Underdog!

Must be 18+ (19+ in AL, NE; 19+ in CO for some games; 21+ in AZ, MA, and VA) and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms apply. See assets.underdogfantasy.com/web/PlayandGetTerms_DFS_.html for details. Offer not valid in MD, MI, NJ, NY, OH, and PA. Concerned with your play? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.ncpgambling.org; NY: Call the 24/7 HOPEline at 1-877-8-HOPENY or Text HOPENY (467369).

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD

CODE: SBD

SIGNUP OFFER

PLAY $5
GET $50

GET OFFER

UFC 327 Fighter Fade

Tatiana Suarez ($8,500 at DraftKings)

I’m struggling to find value in Tatiana Suarez at this salary. She’s likely to come in north of 20% ownership, but in my builds, she’ll only make a few appearances.

Suarez is the rightful favorite in this women’s strawweight bout against Loopy Godinez, though there’s a path for this fight to be more competitive than expected.

Suarez carries a 50% submission rate, compared to just 14% for Godinez. However, Godinez tends to extend fights, with an average fight time of over 13.5 minutes and 79% of her bouts going to a decision.

If Godinez can land effective strikes early and avoid Suarez’s grappling, there’s a real chance Suarez underwhelms relative to her price and ownership, making her a fade candidate in DFS contests this weekend.

UFC 327 DFS Strategy

This feels like a slate where you don’t need to overthink it or force in all the top-end salary.

There really isn’t a huge gap in projections, especially in that mid-range, and ownership looks pretty spread out. That’s where I’m going to live for most of my builds. Guys in that $7,200 to $8,200 range give you similar upside without needing everything to go perfect from the top tier.

I’ll still get exposure to one of the higher-priced fighters, but I’m not forcing two or three of them into the same lineup. It just doesn’t feel necessary on a slate like this.

Looking to bet UFC 327 outright? Check out the best UFC betting apps for the latest fight odds and props.

The post UFC 327 DFS Picks – Ownership Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Tonight’s UFC Fight Night is headlined by the Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan lightweight bout
• This will be Duncan’s first five-round fight, while Moicano has three such bouts under his belt
• See my favorite UFC Fight Night picks and predictions below, plus the latest odds for Moicano vs Duncan

The Apex in Las Vegas is the site of tonight’s UFC Fight Night, with the event headlined by the Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan lightweight bout. Online sportsbooks are siding with Duncan ahead of the fight, which opens up a major betting opportunity on his opponent, the much more seasoned fighter.

The UFC Fight Night prelims are set to begin at 2:15 pm ET, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night picks and predictions, along with the latest betting odds.

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of April 4 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Fight Night Picks: Moicanao Moneyline

Duncan is the younger and more powerful fighter in this bout, but there are plenty of reasons to fade him. Let’s start with his durability. He’s been hurt and knocked down plenty of times in his short UFC tenure, the majority of times by lesser fighters than Moicano.

His grappling stats grade out a little higher than Moicano’s; however, he hasn’t faced the same type of wrestlers that his opponent has. Moicano is much more technically sound on the mat, both positionally and in scrambles, and boasts better takedown defense than the Scotsman.

Duncan likely won’t have to worry about being knocked out by Moicano, who has just two career KO’s. However, Moicano’s submission prowess, led by his rear-naked choke hold, is a move Duncan has been caught in before.

Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan Tale of the Tape

Moicano is also the cleaner striker and quicker, more well-rounded athlete. He’s used to five-round fights, with three career headline bouts under his belt, while this will be the first such fight for Duncan.

These two used to be training partners, and I’m confident the more experienced fighter, with better athleticism, comes out on top. The betting market feels the same way, as the price on Moicano is getting shorter by the hour.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Renato Moicanao Moneyline (+120 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Picks: Tabatha Ricci Moneyline

Another fighter sharp bettors are on tonight is Tabatha Ricci, in her strawweight bout with Virna Jandiroba. Ricci’s price has gradually been shortened since opening odds were released, as bettors are gravitating towards the younger, more athletic woman.

For a long time, Ricci was a one-trick pony. She could control fights on the ground but was vulnerable on her feet. That’s changed recently, as she’s flashed not only better striking technique, but significantly more power as well.

That was on display in her knockout victory over Amanda Ribas, and it’s going to be a huge factor against Jandiroba. The older woman can dominate and control on the mat against inferior grapplers and hunt for submissions, but she does everything she can to avoid deciding fights on her feet.

Ricci won’t afford her that luxury, as her elite wrestling skills will prevent Jandiroba from getting into comfortable positions when she does take her down. When they inevitably get back to their feet, Jandiroba’s wide fight style makes her susceptible to strikes and limits her lateral mobility.

The bulk of her losses have come against strong grapplers who have the power to hurt her with their striking. That’s the exact profile we’re getting from the new-and-improved Ricci.

• UFC Fight Night Predictions: Tabatha Ricci Moneyline (+114 at DraftKings)

The post UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds: Moicano vs. Duncan appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Israel Adesanya takes on Joe Pyfer in the UFC Seattle main event
• Adesanya has lost three straight fights
• Check out our UFC Seattle Parlay Picks with a +765 play

Former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya returns to the octagon at UFC Seattle. Get your parlays in before the main card kicks off from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle at 8pm ET on Paramount+.

Dive into the UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs Pyfer parlay picks.

UFC Seattle Parlay #1 – Favorites Lead the Way

Maycee Barber enters on a red-hot seven-fight win streak with insane metrics to back up her recent performances. She’s posted 4.61 significant strikes per minute at 52% striking accuracy, while absorbing just 2.76. Grasso is no slouch, with 16 wins in her career, but she lands only 4.11 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, and absorbs 3.73. I like Barber’s pressure, wrestling and finishing skills to flip the scrip in this rematch, five years after Grasso’s 2021 unanimous decision win.

Meanwhile, Lerryan Douglas is a finishing machine. “The Gunslinger” lives up to that name with a stellar 11.67 strikes landed per minute at 87% accuracy, and a career 77% finishing rate. His opponent, Julian Erosa, is a battle-tested veteran. However, he’s 36-years-old and absorbs a staggering 6.27 strikes per minutes with just a 48% defense rate. Expect this bout to be over quickly, as Douglas’ explosive power give him a clear edge, and he’s finished six of his last seven wins with a first or second round knockout.

UFC Seattle Parlay #2 – Underdogs Barking

The indelible Adesanya enters on a three-fight skid, with losses to Sean Strickland, Dricus du Plessis and Nassourdine Imavov after retaking the middleweight crown from Alex Pereira. His once elastic “Stylebending” ways have lessened with age, and his chin is now in question after two recent knockout losses. Adesanya is still landing a solid 4.02 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, but he’s absorbing more and more punches in recent years at 3.2 with only a 55% defense. At 36, his output has slowed.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s Joe Pyfer enters on a three-fight win streak, and is 15-3 in his young career. The American is just 29 years old, and has shown off his power with nine knockout wins. His 50% takedown defense, and sufficient defensive wrestling will allow him to weather any early Adesanya storms. I like Pyfer to go to work on the aging former champ, as his significant grappling advantage and one-punch knockout power can exploit Adesanya’s vulnerabilities.

Next up, Mansur Abdul-Malik is an explosive prospect with a 9-0-1 record thus far in his career. However, Yoursi Belgaroui brings underrated length, punching volume and experience to their middleweight bout. Belgaroui lands 5.82 significant strikes per minute with an elite 66% accuracy. Plus, he’s 6’6 and his significant reach advantage will allow him to dictate range against the 6’2 Abdul-Malik. Additionally, Belgaroui’s 85% takedown accuracy and 68% takedown defense are enough to neutralize any early grappling threats, while his striking efficiency and knockout power will lead him to victory. The Dutchman has won seven of his nine career victories by knockout.

Finally, Terrance McKinney loves to stand and bang, but the 31-year-old Orlando natives game carries glaring flaws. He holds just a 43% striking defense and his cardio notoriously collapses when fights extend past the first round. On the other side of the cage, Nelson is 4-1 in his last five fights and boasts a granite chin. His veteran experience and grappling strength will be more than enough to weather early exchanges, and the Canadian can exploit McKinney’s gas tank as the fight extends.

The post UFC Seattle Parlay Picks – Get +1141 Odds on Adesanya vs Pyfer Main Card appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The UFC octagon heads to Seattle, Washington, for a high stakes middleweight main event featuring number four ranked Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya and number 14 ranked Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer. This five-round clash at UFC Fight Night carries massive implications for the 185-pound division. Adesanya enters the cage with a 24-5 record, looking to defend his position at the top of the weight class and prove he remains a dangerous threat to the championship.

Watch Adesanya vs Pyfer on Paramount+.

Standing in his way is the heavy-handed Pyfer, boasting a 15-3 record and aiming to use this marquee matchup to catapult himself into the top tier of the divisional elite. If you are looking forward to this thrilling UFC Fight Night card, continue reading to find out everything you need to know to catch the action. Below, we break down the scheduled start time, the exact venue location, and the television channel and live streaming options so you do not miss a single second of this massive middleweight showdown.

When Is UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer? What Time Does It Start?

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer takes place on Saturday, March 28, 2026. While the official start time for the preliminary card has not been released, we do know when the primary action gets underway.

Fans tuning in should be prepared for the main card broadcasts to begin at 9:40 PM ET. As the feature bout of the evening, Adesanya and Pyfer will make their walks to the octagon to close out the main card.

Where Is UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer?

The highly anticipated middleweight showdown between Israel Adesanya and Joe Pyfer takes place at the Climate Pledge Arena. Located in Seattle, Washington, the facility serves as the battleground for the evening action. The UFC brings its premier mixed martial arts competition to the Pacific Northwest for what promises to be an exciting night of fights.

How Can I Watch UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer?

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Pyfer streams exclusively on Paramount+, meaning no pay-per-view purchase is needed to watch Israel Adesanya and Joe Pyfer go head to head in the octagon. Fans can catch the entirety of this highly anticipated UFC card live by streaming it on Paramount+.

Signing up for Paramount+ to watch the UFC is a quick and straightforward process. First, visit the Paramount+ website or download the app on your preferred smart TV, mobile, or streaming device. Next, select a subscription plan that includes live sports coverage. Then, create your account and complete the registration process. On fight night, simply log in and navigate to the live sports or dedicated MMA section to find the Adesanya vs Pyfer broadcast.

Adesanya vs Pyfer Odds

Odds from bet365 Sportsbook on March 27th.

Heading into this middleweight showdown, Israel Adesanya is listed as the moderate favorite at -150, meaning bettors would need to wager $150 to win $100 on “The Last Stylebender.” On the other side, Joe Pyfer sits as the underdog at +125, where a $100 bet would return $125 in profit if “Bodybagz” pulls off the upset.

The relatively tight line suggests oddsmakers view this as a competitive matchup, with Adesanya’s experience and elite striking giving him the edge but Pyfer’s knockout power keeping him very much in the conversation. This is far from a lopsided affair on the betting board, reflecting the real danger Pyfer poses as a rising contender against a former champion looking to reassert his dominance.

The post How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Tonight’s UFC Seattle is headlined by the Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer middleweight bout
• This will be Adesanya’s 14th consecutive five round fight, while Pyfer has just one such bout on his resume
• See the updated UFC Seattle odds, and final Fight Night predictions for Adesanya vs Pyfer, below

The UFC is back in Seattle tonight with a card headlined by an Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer middleweight clash. Online sportsbooks are siding with the former middleweight champ Adesanya, despite his recent struggles, and I’m inclined to back him as well for the reasons l’ll lay out below.

The UFC Seattle prelims are already underway on Paramount+, with the main card fights scheduled to start at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are the updated UFC Seattle odds and final Fight Night predictions for Adesanya vs Pyfer and more.

Updated UFC Seattle Odds

Odds as of March 28 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Seattle on Saturday.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Seattle Final Predictions: Adesanya Moneyline

Adesanya is arguably the second best middleweight to ever step in the Octagon, so I’m little surprised his price hasn’t moved since early UFC Seattle odds were released. Perhaps it’s his recent form that’s making bettors nervous, as he has dropped three of his past four fights. He did manage to avenge one of those losses by knocking out Alex Pereira, and I’m willing to overlook the other two defeats and trust his pedigree for this fight.

There’s a lot to like about Adesanya in this matchup, so let’s break down what’s working in his favor. We’ll start with his experience. This will be a five round bout, which is exactly what the former champ is used to. This will be his 14th consecutive five round fight, while his opponent has just one such bout on his resume, and he gassed out early.

Conditioning has never been Adesanya’s problem, and he brings a big reach advantage (5 inches) and much more precise set of striking skills to the Octagon. His power is undeniable, with 16 career knockouts, while his long limbs will allow him to strike efficiently from distance, just like he has versus more talented fighters.

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer Tale of the Tape

That’s not to say Pyfer can’t find success, however I just don’t think it’s likely. The 29-year-old is a fast starter, with plenty of power of his own, and his best chance for success is to either catch Adesanya early, or beat him on the ground.

The problem is that Adesanya has seen this type of aggression countless times before and should be able to keep his distance to thwart any advances. As for a grappling strategy, Pyfer isn’t much of a wrestler, while Adesanya boasts an impressive 76% takedown defense rate.

Ultimately, I think Adesanya will simply wear Pyfer down over the course of five rounds. Pyfer won the first two rounds of his only five round bout, but proceeded to lose the final three rounds and the fight. Perhaps he’s learned from his previous mistakes, but I’m not willing to fade Adesanya versus an inferior talent over the course of a headline bout.

• UFC Seattle Final Predictions: Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

UFC Seattle Final Predictions: Grasso Moneyline

In addition to betting Adesanya tonight, I’m also looking to back Alexa Grasso in a rematch versus Maycee Barber. Grasso took the initial meeting between these two in 2021, and Barber was reportedly struggling badly just to make weight for this fight.

Grasso is the cleaner striker of the two, and thrives on her opponents mistakes. Her lightning quick hands can neutralize Barber’s aggressive, forward charging strategy, just they did in their first matchup.

Barber will want to turn this into an ugly, clinch heavy fight, that grinds her opponent down. That might work against the bulk of flyweight fighters, but not Grasso. Expect another technically sound performance from her, that leads to a victory on the judge’s cards.

• UFC Seattle Final Predictions: Alexa Grasso Moneyline (+160 at DraftKings)

The post Updated UFC Seattle Odds & Final Fight Night Predictions | Adesanya vs Pyfer appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Saturday’s UFC Seattle Prelims feature seven fights, including Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev
• Bahamondes owns a 6 inch height and reach advantage over his opponent
• See my UFC Seattle Prelims predictions and picks for Bahamondes vs Musayev and More

The UFC is returning to Seattle on Saturday for a 13-fight card. The action will be headlined by the Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer main event, but before we can even think about handicapping that bout, we need to break down the undercard.

The UFC Seattle prelims feature seven fights and multiple betting opportunities. My favorite fight to target is the Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev lightweight bout, as I see real value on Bahamondes to finish his opponent.

The UFC Seattle Prelims are set to get underway at 2:15 pm PT, 5:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the Main Card fights starting at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Seattle Prelims predictions and picks for Bahamondes vs Musayev and more.

UFC Seattle Prelims Predictions: Bahamondes Method of Victory

Bahamondes brings serious knockout power and finishing ability into this bout. 13 of his 17 professional victories have come inside the distance, with an 11-to-2 knockout-to-submission ratio. I’m going to throw out a submission in this bout, as Musayev has demonstrated competent takedown defense in the past.

Where Bahamondes’ true advantage will lie is on his feet, where the massive size and power discrepancy between him and Musayev will overwhelm his opponent.

Bahamondes vs Musayev Tale of the Tape

Bahamondes will enter the octagon at 6 feet 3 inches, giving him a 6-inch height advantage over Musayev. The Chilean also carries a 6-inch reach advantage, which is going to make Musayev’s preferred fighting style difficult to execute. The 36-year-old wants nothing more than to be a distance striker, relying on combinations and an array of kicks.

Bahamondes’ aggressive, come-forward pressure will keep him back on his feet, and he should be able to punish his opponent with his close-range strikes, which include knees, hooks and devastating head kicks. Three of Bahamondes’ last four fights have failed to exceed the 1st round, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes Musayev within the first 3 minutes on Saturday.

• UFC Seattle Picks: Ignacio Bahamondes to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+165 at Bet365)

Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Seattle on Saturday.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY).

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $200

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

UFC Seattle Predictions: Tyrell Fortune Moneyline

For my next selection, I’m taking Tyrell Fortune to emerge victorious in his UFC debut over Marcin Tybura. The ladder fighter has now reached the age of 40 and is well past his prime, while Fortune showed excellent grappling chops and a decent amount of power in his Bellator tenure.

At 6-2, 255 pounds, he’s a big man who moves surprisingly well. The 35-year-old is a former collegiate wrestler with quick hands and natural power, and once he gets his opponent to the ground, he carries a variety of finishing moves.

Tybura, meanwhile, has dropped two of his last four bouts and lacks the striking power to really hurt his opponent. He’s used to relying on his grappling and craftiness, but now that he’s a step slower, his recent fights have shown that quicker opponents can easily outmanoeuvre him and put him into compromising positions.

• UFC Seattle Picks: Tyrell Fortune Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

UFC Seattle Predictions: Gabriella Fernandes Moneyline

I’ll round out my UFC Seattle picks with Gabriella Fernandes to beat Casey O’Neill. The ladder hasn’t fought in over a year and a half, which is her second year-plus absence from the Octagon since early 2022. Once considered an elite prospect at the flyweight division, injuries have taken their toll on the 28-year-old, and she hasn’t looked smooth or powerful in recent bouts.

The results back that up with a pair of losses and a questionable decision victory, and now she has to deal with Fernandes, who’s riding a three-fight winning streak. Fernandes has dominated each of her last three fights, and is a well-rounded flyweight with excellent takedown defense, which will serve her well versus O’Neill, who would prefer to take this fight to the ground.

Ultimately, these two women are going in opposite directions. Fernandes is ascending and just a win or two away from title shot consideration. O’Neill, meanwhile, is a shell of her former self.

• UFC Seattle Picks: Gabriella Fernandes Moneyline (-110 at Bet365)

The post UFC Seattle Prelims Predictions & Picks – Best Bets Include Bahamondes vs Musayev appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• UFC Seattle takes place Saturday, March 28th from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington
• Israel Adesanya is a -135 favorite over Joe Pyfer in a middleweight main event
• Check out the early UFC Seattle odds, predictions and best value below

The UFC heads to the Pacific Northwest this Saturday for a 13-fight card at Climate Pledge Arena. Israel Adesanya headlines against Joe Pyfer in a middleweight main event, with Alexa Grasso and Maycee Barber running it back in the co-main. Five fighters on the card are from the Seattle area, so expect the building to be rocking.

Prelims kick off at 2:15 pm ET on ESPN+, with the main card at 5:15 pm ET. Here are the early UFC Seattle odds and my predictions for the card.

Early UFC Seattle Odds

Adesanya is a -135 favorite over Pyfer, which translates to roughly 57.4% implied probability. That feels about right for a guy who’s lost four of his last five but never to anyone outside the division’s elite.

The biggest favorites on the UFC Seattle card are Alexia Thainara (-700), Navajo Stirling (-600), and Michael Chiesa (-575). The tightest line belongs to Abdul-Malik vs Belgaroui at -118/-102, which is basically a pick’em. Barber is -180 over Grasso in the co-main, a notable shift from their first meeting.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Odds as of March 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grab a DraftKings promo code for UFC Seattle or browse UFC betting apps.

Early Adesanya vs Pyfer Prediction

Adesanya has lost four of his last five, and that’s the number everyone keeps pointing to. Fair enough. But look at who beat him. Dricus Du Plessis, Nassourdine Imavov, Sean Strickland, and Alex Pereira. That’s a former champ, a current champ, a guy who just beat the current champ, and a future title challenger. Pyfer is ranked 14th. There’s a gap.

Pyfer can crack. If he catches Izzy clean in the first two rounds, this thing could be over. But the cardio is a real problem. When Jack Hermansson dragged him into deep water, Pyfer faded badly down the stretch. He’s at his most dangerous early, and once that initial burst is gone, the fight tilts hard in Adesanya’s direction.

Tale of the Tape

Adesanya owns a five-inch reach advantage at 80 inches to Pyfer’s 75. He also stands three inches taller. Izzy’s entire game is built on managing distance and picking guys apart from the outside, and Pyfer has to close that gap to do any damage.

The concern is whether Izzy’s reaction time has slipped. Against Imavov, he kept extending both hands to parry in orthodox stance, leaving his chin wide open. Old Izzy was fast enough to lean back out of range. That margin is thinner now.

But Pyfer isn’t Imavov. He’s more of a plodding power puncher, and Adesanya should have an easier time reading what’s coming. I think Izzy outpoints him over five rounds.

• Adesanya vs Pyfer Early Pick: Israel Adesanya (-135 at DraftKings)

Early Grasso vs Barber Prediction

This is a rematch from 2021, and Grasso won pretty clearly the first time. She outboxed Barber, stayed mobile, and controlled the striking. So why is Barber the -180 favorite here? Probably because Grasso has gone 2-2-1 in her last five while Barber has rattled off seven straight wins.

I think this line has overcorrected. Grasso’s losses came against Valentina Shevchenko and Natalia Silva. Those aren’t bad losses. Shevchenko might be the greatest women’s fighter ever, and Silva could be champion by year’s end. Barber has been squeaking out tight decisions against lower-ranked fighters.

In the first fight, Barber landed just 40 significant strikes on 152 attempts. That’s a rough 26.3% accuracy rate. Grasso was much sharper at 46.9%. Barber did land three of five takedowns, but she couldn’t do much with them.

Barber at -180 is too steep for someone who already lost this matchup. Grasso at +150 is the play if you believe she’s the better pure fighter, and I do.

• Grasso vs Barber Early Pick: Alexa Grasso (+150 at DraftKings)

Other UFC Seattle Predictions

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui:

The most interesting line on the UFC Seattle card. Abdul-Malik is undefeated at 9-0-1 and has finished three of his four UFC opponents. He’s a D1 wrestler with real knockout power, and he looked sharp submitting Antonio Trocoli in his last outing. But Belgaroui is no pushover. He stands 6’5″ with a kickboxing background and is training alongside Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira in Connecticut.

Belgaroui just beat Azamat Bekoev, a powerful wrestler, which is exactly the profile Abdul-Malik fits. Meanwhile, Abdul-Malik went to a draw with Cody Brundage and got dropped by Nick Klein, so the unbeaten record comes with asterisks. At -118/-102, this is a coin flip. I’m leaning Belgaroui on the size and the fact that we just watched his wrestling defense hold up.

• Pick: Yousri Belgaroui (-102)

Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson:

McKinney has never seen a scorecard in 25 professional fights. Every single one ended in a finish, win or lose. He’s fighting near his hometown, and he’s explosive as anyone in the lightweight division.

Nelson is durable with real power in his hands, but he’s on a three-fight skid and doesn’t do anything better than McKinney other than survive.

If this goes past the first round, things could get weird. But I’m expecting McKinney to come out with bad intentions in front of the home crowd and get it done early.

• Pick: Terrance McKinney (-170)

Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price:

Chiesa at -575 is way too juicy to lay on the moneyline, but he should win comfortably. He’s a grinding wrestler on a three-fight win streak, fighting at home, taking on a guy who’s 1-4 in his last five on short notice.

Price stepped up after Chiesa’s original opponent fell through. He’s always fun to watch, but he’s lost a step. Chiesa will close the distance, get the takedowns, and smother him.

• Pick: Michael Chiesa by Submission (price TBD)

Lerryan Douglas vs Julian Erosa:

Douglas is a -325 favorite, and there’s no value laying that on the moneyline. He’s a well-rounded product out of CUB Swanson’s gym with fast hands and legit finishing ability.

Erosa is crafty and can snatch a neck if you get sloppy, but he absorbs way too much damage. Douglas should be the better striker and the better wrestler, and Erosa’s chin has been cracked in recent fights.

• Pick: Lerryan Douglas by KO/TKO (price TBD)

Tyrell Fortune vs Marcin Tybura:

Fortune makes his official UFC debut as a slight -130 favorite. He’s got a credentialed D2 wrestling background and serious pop in his hands. Tybura is a solid measuring stick at heavyweight, but he’s coming off a knockout loss and isn’t getting any younger.

Fortune has said publicly he plans to keep this standing and knock Tybura out. If that power lands clean, it probably will. The line is tight, and I’ll side with the younger, fresher fighter.

• Pick: Tyrell Fortune (-130)

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev:

Bahamondes at -290 is too much chalk on the moneyline, but the pick is right. He’s 6’3″ at lightweight with ridiculous reach, and he uses that length well.

Musayev isn’t a bad fighter, but he was submitted in the first round of his only UFC appearance and doesn’t have the tools to close the distance against someone this long. Bahamondes keeps it at range and lets his kicks go.

• Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes by KO/TKO (price TBD)

Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.:

Hooper is the -278 favorite, and Seattle is basically his backyard. He’s a jiu-jitsu ace who’s been filling out physically and improving his takedowns. Gibson lost to King Green on four days’ notice, but that loss has aged well since Green is one of the slickest counter strikers in the division.

Gibson is the better striker and has a wrestling background of his own. I’ll side with Hooper’s experience and grappling edge, but this isn’t as lopsided as -278 implies. The method of victory market is the move rather than laying the juice.

• Pick: Chase Hooper by Submission (price TBD)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Seattle Early Value

The best early value on the UFC Seattle card is Grasso at +150 in the co-main. She already beat Barber, and her losses since then have come against world-class opponents. The line has shifted too far toward Barber based on a win streak against weaker competition.

Belgaroui at -102 is worth a look in the closest fight on the card. In the main event, Adesanya at -135 is a fair price for a former champion stepping down in competition. Those are your best early UFC Seattle bets.

The post Early UFC Seattle Odds, Predictions & Best Value – Adesanya vs Pyfer appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The featherweight division takes center stage as the number one ranked contender Movsar Evloev puts his pristine 19-0 record on the line against the number three ranked Lerone Murphy. Murphy brings an impressive 17-0-1 record into the Octagon in his home country. Fans are buzzing because someone’s undefeated streak has to end in this crucial title eliminator. The winner is highly expected to challenge champion Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight belt.

Watch Evloev vs Murphy on Paramount+.

Evloev recently overcame intense visa issues just to make it to London, adding even more drama to this clash of elite grappling and sharp striking. If you are looking to catch every second of this matchup, keep reading. We have all the essential details you need, including the exact start time, the arena location, and a complete breakdown of your television channel and live streaming options.

When is Evloev vs Murphy? What Time Does It Start?

Mark your calendars for March 21, 2026. Because the event is taking place overseas, fight fans in North America are treated to a special afternoon and early evening schedule.

The preliminary fights are scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET, with the main card officially locked in to begin at 4:00 PM ET. Evloev and Murphy will make their walks to the Octagon to close out the show following the conclusion of the earlier main card bouts.

Where Is Evloev vs Murphy?

This crucial featherweight showdown is set to take place at The O2 Arena in London, England. Competing in his home country gives Murphy a distinct advantage as he prepares to step into the Octagon on familiar soil.

The London crowd is known for an electrifying atmosphere that could play a huge factor in this highly anticipated main event. Murphy has promised a finish to erase any doubts about his title contention, and the hometown energy will surely back him up.

How Can I Watch Evloev vs Murphy?

Fans eager to watch the live broadcast of this five round featherweight matchup can catch the action through the official television partners of the UFC.

Because regional broadcast rights vary depending on your location, viewers should check their local programming guide to confirm the exact channel and regional network broadcasting the fight. Official live coverage is confirmed, meaning international television networks will carry the live feed as the action unfolds in London.

How Can I Stream Evloev vs Murphy?

For comprehensive live coverage, fans can stream the action directly on Paramount+. To sign up, simply visit the Paramount+ website or download the app on your preferred device. Select a subscription tier, create an account, and navigate to the live sports section. Best of all, because this is a standard Fight Night card, no additional Pay Per View purchase is needed to enjoy all five scheduled rounds.

Evloev vs Murphy Odds

Betting odds from bet365 Sportsbook on March 19th.

Evloev enters as a solid favorite at -250, reflecting his dominant 19-0 record and elite grappling pedigree. Murphy, listed at +250 as the underdog, brings a near-flawless 17-0-1 mark and dangerous striking that could make him a live dog in front of a roaring London crowd. With both fighters holding unblemished records, this is one of the most evenly matched title eliminators in recent featherweight history, and the odds suggest Evloev’s wrestling control is the difference, though Murphy’s finishing power keeps the door open for an upset.

The post How to Watch UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Movsar Evloev is a -238 moneyline favorite over Lerone Murphy in the headline bout at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in London
• Neither man has suffered a professional loss on their resume
• See my UFC Fight Night predictions, plus the odds for the Evloev vs Murphy card

The UFC is in London this weekend, with a Fight Night card on Saturday headlined by the Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy featherweight bout.

Online sportsbooks have pegged Evloev as a -238 moneyline favorite, while the heavy juice on over 4.5 rounds suggests this fight is bound to go to a decision.

The UFC Fight Night prelim bouts are set to begin at 1:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with the main card fights expected to start at 4:15 pm ET, also on Paramount+.

Here are my UFC Fight Night predictions, plus the odds for the Evloev vs Murphy card.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Evloev to Win by Decision

Neither one of these fighters has suffered a professional loss, combining for a record of 36-0-1. The 36 combined victories by two opponents without a defeat is the most ever for any UFC bout, which begs the question, why wasn’t this fight saved for a bigger card? Perhaps it’s because Murphy will be fighting in front of his home country fans. Regardless, the winner of this bout will earn a Featherweight title shot, upping the stakes for the matchup.

Evloev vs Murphy Tale of the Tape

Murphy is the much cleaner striker between the two, and has shown the ability to get back to his feet when facing elite grapplers in the past. That skill will be tested again versus Evloev, but I have my doubts that Murphy is truly ready for the relentless take-down pressure from his opponent.

Evloev averages 5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and once on the ground, he dominates position holding an 81% control rate. He should be able to completely neutralize Murphy on the mat and pick him apart on points, ultimately scoring a decision victory. All nine of his UFC wins have come on the judges’ scorecards, and this one will as well.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Evloev to win by Decision (-120 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Odds – Main Card

Odds as of March 20 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Campbell Boosted Parlay

Next up, I’m going to take advantage of a boosted parlay offered by Bet365. The sportsbook is offering +250 odds on Kurtis Campbell to defeat Danny Silva inside the distance, and that’s a bet I can’t pass up.

Campbell is a strong grappler who also boasts some serious knockout power, as he demonstrated on the Contender series. He’s more aggressive and a cleaner striker than Silva, who wants to keep this fight on the mat at all costs.

The problem is that Silva struggles to maintain control once he does score a takedown. Although it’s a small sample size, Campbell holds a 100% takedown defense record, and he should be able to use his 2-inch arm-length advantage and 3.5-inch leg-length advantage to thwart Silva’s advances, eventually scoring a finishing blow.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Campbell to Win, Fight to Not Go the Distance Parlay (+250 at Bet365)

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Patterson Moneyline

Last but not least, I’m taking a swing on Sam Patterson’s upside targeting his +160 moneyline versus Michael Page. Patterson enters the cage riding a four-fight winning streak, and I’m counting on his striking volume to get the job done.

Patterson averages 4.79 significant strikes per minute, which is two and a half more than his opponent. He’s also 9 years younger and has a history of ending his fights within the 1st Round. A finish may be unlikely against Page, who has proven to be one of the most difficult fighters to hit. He absorbs less than 2 significant strikes per minute, but his lack of aggression will ultimately be his undoing.

Patterson should have the advantage on their feet, but can also win this fight on the mat. Page boasts just a 66% takedown defense, while Patterson’s takedown accuracy has been nearly flawless over his short UFC run.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Sam Patterson (+160 at DraftKings)

The post UFC Fight Night Predictions & Odds: Evloev vs. Murphy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Josh Emmett faces Kevin Vallejos in tonight’s UFC Vegas 114 main event from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas
• Vallejos is a massive -550 favorite with Emmett sitting at +400 on BetMGM
• See my last-minute Emmett vs Vallejos prediction and best prop bets below

We’re a couple hours from UFC Fight Night, and the main event between Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos is about to go down at the Meta APEX. This is a classic veteran vs prospect matchup, but the gap between these two is wider than the odds suggest it should be. Actually, no. The odds have it about right.

Emmett is 1-4 in his last five fights and coming off a first-round submission loss to Youssef Zalal where he didn’t land a single significant strike. Vallejos is 3-0 in the UFC with a knockout of Giga Chikadze via spinning backfist in his last outing. The 17-year age gap tells the rest of the story.

The main card is live tonight on Paramount+, with the main event walkouts expected around 9:40 pm ET. Here are my last-minute prop picks for Emmett vs Vallejos.

Emmett vs Vallejos Prediction

• Emmett vs Vallejos Pick: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ (-105 at BetMGM)

I’m taking Vallejos by KO/TKO/DQ at -105. Laying a nickel on a method of victory prop in a fight where the moneyline is -550 is a much better way to play this. You’re basically getting Vallejos at a coin flip price to finish a guy who’s been finished in three of his last five fights.

The striking accuracy gap between these two is enormous. Vallejos landed 62.50% of his significant strikes against Chikadze before putting him away in the second round. He hit 51.85% against Seungwoo Choi and 64.86% against Cam Teague. This is a precision striker who doesn’t waste energy on shots that aren’t going to land.

Tale of the Tape

Emmett, on the other hand, is a volume-heavy power puncher who loads up on big looping shots. His accuracy has cratered in recent fights, hitting just 28.52% of 305 attempts against Ilia Topuria and 28.67% of 143 attempts against Lerone Murphy. When he can’t find the one-punch knockout early, he gets outworked and outclassed. Against Zalal, he was submitted in Round 1 without landing a strike. That’s where things stand for the 41-year-old right now.

Vallejos fights like a younger, faster version of Emmett. He moves forward with calculated combinations, mixes in calf kicks to break down his opponent’s stance, and has the power to end things in any round. He dropped Chikadze before finishing him, dropped Choi in the first round, and also scored a knockdown against Teague. The kid finishes fights. Twelve of his 17 wins have come by knockout.

Emmett’s only real path here is landing one of those massive overhand rights early. He still has legitimate one-punch power, and nobody should count that out entirely. But his defensive liabilities are too big to ignore at this point. His striking defense has been leaky, and his grappling got completely exposed by Zalal. If Vallejos stays disciplined with his jab, works the calf kick early, and doesn’t get reckless walking into Emmett’s range, this should be his fight to lose.

I expect Vallejos to break Emmett down over the first couple of rounds with leg kicks and sharp boxing, then find the finish when Emmett starts loading up out of desperation. The KO/TKO prop at -105 is the sharpest play on this board.

Best Prop Bet: Fight Ends in Round 2

Best Prop: Fight Ends in Round 2 (+450 at BetMGM)

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US), 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET UP TO
$1,500 BACK

IN BONUS BETS!

BET NOW

My second prop is the fight to end in Round 2 at +450. This one comes down to pacing and how I think the fight unfolds.

Round 1 at +400 is tempting, and an early finish wouldn’t shock anyone. But Emmett is a tough, experienced veteran who will be cautious early. He’s going to come out behind a low guard, trying to time Vallejos with that big right hand. I think he survives the first round by staying compact and not overcommitting.

Round 2 is where it falls apart. That’s what happened against Chikadze. Vallejos spent the first round establishing range, landing calf kicks, and figuring out his opponent’s timing. Then he uncorked the spinning backfist in the second and it was over. Vallejos is patient enough to take a round of data before he turns up the aggression, and Emmett’s durability just isn’t what it used to be.

The fight not going the distance is priced at -210, so there’s a 68% implied chance of a finish. Getting +450 on the specific round where Vallejos has shown he likes to pull the trigger is solid value. Pair it with the KO/TKO prop and you’ve got a nice two-prop card for tonight’s main event.

Emmett vs Vallejos Odds

Vallejos is a heavy -550 favorite at BetMGM, carrying an 80.2% implied win probability per Sportradar’s model. The fight ending inside the distance is priced at -210, while a decision sits at +150. The KO/TKO/DQ method is favored at -140 overall, and Vallejos specifically by knockout is the most likely single outcome on the board at -105.

Emmett by KO at +800 is the only realistic upset path. His submission and decision lines are +3000 and +900 respectively, which tells you the market doesn’t see him grinding out a win. If you want a sprinkle on the upset, Emmett by KO in Round 1 at +2800 is the lottery ticket, but I wouldn’t put much behind it.

Odds as of March 14th at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on UFC Vegas 114 tonight with a BetMGM promo code or browse UFC betting apps.

The post Emmett vs Vallejos Last-Minute Prediction & Best Props | UFC Vegas 114 Tonight appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Kevin Vallejos is a -550 moneyline favorite over Josh Emmett in the headline bout at tonight’s UFC Fight Night
• Emmett is 1-4 in his last five fights, while Vallejos has won six straight
• See my UFC Fight Night Prelims predictions, plus updated odds for the Emmett vs Vallejos Main Card

The UFC is back in action tonight, with a Fight Night card headlined by the Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos featherweight bout.

Online sportsbooks have pegged Vaellejos as a sizeable -550 moneyline favorite, against a man 17 years older than him. I’m inclined to agree, and while there’s no value on Vallejos winning outright, there’s at least one of his props that’s worth wagering on.

The UFC Fight Night Main Card bouts are set to begin at 5:15 pm PT, 8:15 pm ET on Paramount+, with Emmett and Vallejos expected to make their entrance two and a half hours later.

Here are my UFC Fight Night predictions, plus the updated odds for the Emmett vs Vallejos Main Card.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Kevin Vallejos Method of Victory

Vallejos is 17-1 as a pro, with his lone loss coming as a 21-year-old by close decision. He’s never been knocked down, let alone finished, and I don’t believe Emmett poses any real threat to him, despite still packing a bit of pop in his hands.

Vallejos is fresh off a 2nd round knockout of Giga Chikadze last time out, giving him 14 finishes in 17 career bouts. He’s won six straight fights overall, five by knockout or submission, and I don’t envision many scenarios where Emmett can last five rounds with him.

Emmett vs Vallejos Tale of the Tape

The 24-year-old boasts eight first round finishes on his resume, but I expect him to feel out his opponent for the first round or so, just like he’s done in his last two bouts. From there, he’ll rev up the intensity and striking, and it’s only a matter of time before he floors his opponent.

Vallejos averages 2 more significant strikes per minute than Emmett, while the ladder’s defense is far from top notch. He absorbs 4.5 significant strikes per minute of fighting, which has led to him being finished on three separate occasions prior to tonight.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Kevin Vallejos to Win by KO/DQ or Submission (-140 at Bet365)

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

UFC Main Card Odds

Odds as of March 14 at DraftKings. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Bruno Gustavo da Silva Moneyline

Next up, I’m targeting Bruno Gustavo da Silva as an underdog versus Charles Johnson. Simply put, this line makes absolutely zero sense to me. Johnson was just brutally knocked out by Alex Perez six weeks ago, and he’s already stepping back into the cage.

Johnson has been one of the flyweight division’s most active fighters over the last year, and the volume may be catching up to him. He’s dropped two of his last three fights, and is just 5-5 in his last 10 professional bouts.

His opponent, on the other hand, is 5-2 in his last seven fights, losing only to top flyweight contenders. He’s faced several fighters of Johnson’s caliber and beaten them all, finishing each of his last five victories inside the distance.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Bruno Gustavo da Silva Moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Gillian Robertson to Win by Finish

Last but not least, I’m betting Gillian Robertson to finish Amanda Lemos. The Canadian has ended 10 of her 16 victories inside the distance, and boasts better striking and grappling metrics than Lemos across the board.

Robertson is also 8 years younger than her opponent, and enters the octagon on the strength of four straight victories.

Lemos meanwhile, has dropped two of her past three bouts, and has been finished three times prior to tonight. Her biggest issue is defending on her feet, as she boasts just a 45% striking defense. If you want to exploit that, you could target a Robertson knockout at +350, but I’ll stick with the Canadian to simply win by any kind of finish.

• UFC Fight Night Picks: Gillian Robertson to Win by Finish (+180 at Bet365)

The post Final UFC Fight Night Predictions & Updated Odds for Emmett vs Vallejos Main Card appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.