• The campaign to be the next mayor of Los Angeles is ramping up with the primary set to be held on June 2
• Unless one candidate reaches the 50% threshold in that primary, there will be a November runoff between the two top vote getters
• Jeanie Buss, the Los Angeles Lakers governor, recently drew attention after donating the maximum amount to Spencer Pratt’s campaign; prediction markets are speculating on who will ultimately be elected the next LA mayor

Money is the underlying lifeblood for any political campaign. Much can be discerned by keeping track of who is making donations and which candidates they are supporting. In some instances, it is a hedging maneuver from a person or entity who will need a good relationship with the elected official, regardless of their ideology. In other cases, they truly believe in the candidate.

Los Angles Lakers former owner and current franchise governor Jeanie Buss donated the maximum legal amount of $1,800 to former reality TV star Spencer Pratt as he runs for mayor of Los Angeles. Ordinarily, this would attract little attention. But LA has become a bellwether for the political direction of California and the United States.

Buss does not need to wade into politics given her wealth, business interests, and standing in the community. However, LA is viewed as having moved so far leftward that more and more people are coming out in support of dramatic change. Buss is a well-known businesswoman in the state and is respected for her intelligence and savvy. She’s anything but an influencer, though her contribution could be categorized as influential, giving others who are concerned about the direction of the city the implied approval to donate as well.

While Pratt is a Republican, he is portraying himself as a moderate.

The other two candidates in the race, Mayor Karen Bass and Los Angeles City Council-member Nithya Raman, are vying with Pratt to win the election. Both are Democrats.

Prediction markets have options to weigh in on which of the three top candidates will be elected mayor. Buss’s donation has yet to significantly impact the odds, but there is still more than a month to go before the primary.

Odds for Next LA Mayor

This market is garnering a great deal of attention as the primary draws closer and coverage increases. Volume is approaching $1.8 million.

Based on current percentages on the market, the top three candidates are Raman, Pratt, and Bass. Raman is above 50% to win. Next is Pratt at around 25%. Right behind him is Bass in the low-20s.

In addition to being able to pick the winner, there is an option to invest in the margin of victory.

For those who want to take part, the Kalshi referral code offers a $10 Sign-Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

The market rules are simple. If the selected candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, the market will resolve to Yes. The City of Los Angeles will verify the outcome.

Nithya Raman

Raman’s rise from relative obscurity to being the frontrunner to be elected mayor of Los Angeles and her adherence to Democratic Socialism has invited comparisons to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

At 44, she is relatively young and markets herself as an avowed progressive. Her platform includes housing affordability, protecting renters, decriminalizing homeless encampments, protecting the environment, reining in perceived law enforcement aggression, better access to childcare, and helping small businesses.

The question about her is whether voters in Los Angeles like what they have seen in New York under Mamdani’s leadership and if they want a similar philosophy in their city.

Polling has her in front, but she remains somewhat unknown. As the primary gets closer, expect Pratt and Bass to hone in on her vulnerabilities compared to what they view as their strengths. Scare tactics are inevitable.

Mamdani withstood every attack and brushed them off, but that might have had more to do with low turnout and the absence of a viable alternative than New York City voters being enamored of him.

Spencer Pratt

California has become so dark blue that the mere fact that Pratt is a Republican could hinder him despite commonsense policies. His is a fiscal conservative who wants to root out corruption. He hopes to help those who lost property in the wildfires by removing regulatory obstacles and bureaucracy from the equation. Regarding the homeless, he wants those with mental issues and substance abuse problems to seek help before they can receive entitlements from the city.

His status as a reality show character might give some pause before voting for him since that is what President Donald J. Trump was before running for office. Suffice it to say that Trump is unpopular in California in general and Los Angeles in particular.

It’s very hard to see Pratt winning unless Raman and Bass split the vote, opening the door for him to get into the runoff where he has a puncher’s chance to win a one-on-one in November.

Karen Bass

Bass is the incumbent. Normally, that’s a strong place to be for a Democrat in a Democrat-heavy city. However, she has several disadvantages that make her vulnerable.

The city is viewed as heading downhill. Her tenure as mayor, which began in 2022, has done little to stem the tide. If anything, it’s gotten worse. The wildfires are certainly not her fault, but the response to it has invited widespread ridicule because while they were happening, she was in Ghana for their president’s inauguration.

She has tried to address homelessness with an increase in available housing, but it has been slow-going and is perceived as ineffective. Deviating from the extreme wing of the party, she has been generally supportive of law enforcement financially and through policy, though she has supported an end to chokeholds and other law enforcement practices that are deemed questionable. LA is protective of immigrants and hostile to ICE raids during her tenure.

She’s an older candidate, turning 73 in October.

Bass is a staunch Democrat, but she is not as far to the left as Raman.

Many voters are on the fence. It’s conceivable that they will walk into the voting booth and pick Bass as the conciliatory choice despite the percentages suggesting that Raman is going to win.

There is a heavy profit available by sticking with Bass, but that hinges on whether Raman has staying power and people are not scared off by the comparisons to the polarizing Mamdani.

The post Jeanie Buss Makes Max Donation to Spencer Pratt: Odds for Next LA Mayor appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The civil trial pitting Elon Musk vs OpenAI and Sam Altman is underway in Oakland, CA with both sides giving different versions of the circumstances under which Musk left the project
• Musk claims that Altman abandoned the promise of OpenAI being used for charitable purposes; Altman says Musk’s greed forced the split
• As Musk pursues an estimated $150 billion in damages from the near-quarter-trillion dollar company, prediction markets are offering yes or no options as to whether Musk will win the case

Elon Musk, the richest person in the world, and OpenAI, the most valuable private company in the world, are doing battle in civil court. Musk alleges that his OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman did an about face on the company’s charitable objectives in the interest of enriching himself. In response, Altman says that Musk was the one who was seeking profit and when he met resistance, he walked away.

Musk wants $150 billion in damages from OpenAI, a company with an estimated value of approximately $730 billion. That is about $100 or so billion less than Musk’s estimated net worth.

While these dollar figures will be otherworldly to just about every other human being on planet Earth, the ubiquitous nature of artificial intelligence and how it is impacting nearly every aspect of life makes this a relevant story. There is a major difference between the technology being used for altruistic purposes and not to make the unfathomably rich even richer, at least in the court of public opinion. As for civil court, it will hinge on which multi-billionaire mogul the jury chooses to believe and its interpretation of the law.

The dispute is beyond pure money and intent. It’s gotten deeply personal with the two titans making biting public comments about each other on social media, drawing rebuke from the judge in the case.

Musk claims OpenAI’s creation was for it to be a nonprofit, but Altman turned it into a financial behemoth. Altman’s representatives assert that Musk’s primary gripe is that he didn’t care about OpenAI or its charitable goals until he left and saw how profitable it could be. In the aftermath, Musk created an AI entity on his own, xAI, which was eventually folded into his company, SpaceX.

Prediction markets are paying attention to the trial and give users a yes or no option regarding Musk winning or losing the case.

Elon vs OpenAI: Latest Odds from Prediction Markets

As the trial gets started, market volume has surpassed $440,000. It will rise as the case proceeds.

It is a yes or no market. Either Musk will win or he will lose. Predictions have been fluctuating, presumably due to few people being immersed in this case as the sides were bickering in public and before it reached the courthouse.

In mid-January, more than two-thirds of those taking part in the market believed Musk would win. On March 10, it dropped to its low point at 32%. Now it is in the mid-50s that Musk will win.

To take part in this market, new users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $10 in trades.

The rules dictate that if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California decides in favor of Elon Musk in the case of Musk v. Altman et al prior to Jan. 1, 2027, the market will resolve to Yes. The sources are based on legal agencies listed in hierarchical order. For example, a judicial body official records and electronic filing systems. That is followed by reputable news organizations such as Bloomberg News, Reuters, ABC, CNN, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and others.

Those taking part should understand the rules beforehand.

How Will Elon Musk vs Altman Play Out?

Laypersons will find this case difficult to fathom on its face. When calculating Musk and Altman’s wealth and the value of the company they are fighting about, it will be even harder to comprehend. However, once the sides present their case with testimony and legal perspective from the most expensive attorneys money can buy, it will come down to the jury deciding whether Musk or Altman’s intentions were clear and believable.

Testimony and statements aside, Musk did not become the richest person in the world without being a capitalist and looking for profit. Logically, would Altman (or Musk for that matter) be involved in this type of world-changing product based solely on giving it away for what they thought was the public good?

That seems to be the crux of the case. Musk says he expected OpenAI to be used for charity and was tricked into providing financing for it. Then Altman used it for his own ends.

Realistically, the defense is far more believable with the claim that Musk is angry that he walked away from a company that became as ingrained as OpenAI and would have made him a trillionaire had he stayed onboard.

Neither of the courtroom combatants are especially popular with the public, viewed as aspiring — arguably actual — oligarchs. But a courtroom is not meant to be a popularity contest. In the end, Musk’s assertions do not pass the smell test. OpenAI and Altman will win the case. So when taking part in this market, the better option is that Musk will lose and the market will resolve to No.

The post Will Elon win his case vs OpenAI? Latest Odds from Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• FBI Director Kash Patel is facing increased scrutiny after a published piece detailed accusations of excessive alcohol use and unexplained absences
• The embattled Patel is in jeopardy of being the next Trump administration appointee to be ousted
• Prediction markets are speculating when Patel might be fired or compelled to resign

FBI Director Kash Patel has filed a defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic after it published a piece alleging he has a problem with alcohol and has been excessively absent from his job. Detractors have implied that Patel’s primary qualification for the job was his fealty to President Donald J. Trump. Patel is an attorney who has worked on both sides of the courtroom as a public defender and a prosecutor at the local and federal levels. He also worked for former Rep. Devin Nunes as an aide.

A staunch Trump loyalist, Patel worked on the National Security Council during the president’s first term and then was the chief of staff to the Defense Secretary. When Trump regained the presidency in 2024, Patel was his choice to lead the FBI. While detractors say he has no law enforcement experience, the criticisms are in line with what any administration official would face from the opposing party.

However, with Trump looking toward the November midterms amid the increasing possibility of a blue wave, he is making changes. Already, Trump has removed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Navy Secretary John Phelan. Despite the president’s second term being relatively stable, it is common for substantive changes to be made after a year or two in office.

Following the article in The Atlantic, as well as the recent shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, federal law enforcement is under the microscope. That means Patel could be teetering on the edge. Patel’s denials notwithstanding, Trump is keenly aware of appearances. Will that outweigh loyalty to ardent supporters like Patel?

Prediction markets are offering options as to if and when Patel will depart from his position as FBI Director.

Latest Odds for Kash Patel Out as FBI Director

For those who want to weigh in, the Kalshi referral code offers a $10 Sign Up Bonus to new users who complete $10 in trades.

Market volume for Patel being out as FBI Director has already surpassed $900,000.

The first option is for him to leave before May 1, 2026. The probability is around 10%. Since there are only a few days left before the end of April and the administration is distracted by the WHCD shooting, among other pressing issues, unless Patel is found to have been completely negligent in identifying the risk presented by the shooter, it’s nearly impossible to expect him to be removed within the next four days.

Next is June 1, 2026, with chances at approximately 60%. For the FBI Director to leave before July 1, 2026, it is slightly higher in the mid-60s. It’s near 70% for Patel to depart before August 1, 2026.

As for the rules, if Patel leaves his role as FBI Director before the selected date, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable news organization like the Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, and others. It can also come from Patel himself, government records and registries, and the FBI.

Will Trump Jettison Patel as FBI Director?

President Trump has been less reactive in his second term in the Oval Office than in his first, when firings and threats of firings were a near-daily occurrence. The retention of his top-level staff has given an air of competence that was absent from 2017 to 2021. Still, that does not mean Trump is simply going to ignore potential problems that warrant change. It’s a fine line between stability and complacency.

The WHCD shooting right after the article in The Atlantic was published draws more attention to the FBI and the man Trump tabbed to run the agency. Kash Patel’s alleged transgressions, even if true, are not of the immediate termination variety. Again, he denies them and is suing, something Trump is experienced with, given his frequent use of lawsuits and the threat of lawsuits to protect himself and his brand.

But with the midterms approaching and growing discontent beyond the president’s natural antagonists in the Democratic party potentially expanding to independents, moderate Republicans, and even chunks of his MAGA base, he will be itchy to bring in new faces he feels he can sell to the public to get his presidency back on track.

Trump is undoubtedly aware of the article and its claims. But that in and of itself will not spur him to get rid of Patel, whether that’s through an outright firing or by telling him to resign. Already, the “unity” the president preached after the WHCD shooting has come undone, and the combative back-and-forth between him and the “fake news media” is back. So he’s not going to let one article force his hand to fire someone who has been an avowed supporter of him and his policies.

If Trump were thinking about firing Patel, the article has a better chance of saving the FBI Director for the time being, simply due to Trump’s natural contrarianism.

Should Patel leave, barring another provable controversy, it likely won’t be before May 1.

The markets for him to leave before June 1, July 1, and August 1 are all at a similar percentage, indicating that there is no consensus as to when it will happen. The first instinct is that Patel will survive and stay in his job, at least beyond the available dates. However, for those who want to jump it, the hedging choice is right in the middle: before July 1, 2026.

The post Odds for Kash Patel Out as FBI Director: Trade Politics Markets on Kalshi appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• For the first time in his five-plus years in office over two terms, President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will attend the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
• This is an unusual turn from Trump given his antagonism toward the mainstream media and vice versa
• Prediction markets are speculating on what Trump might say when he gives his remarks Saturday evening

The White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD) will be held at the Washington Hilton on Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 8:00 p.m., ET, hosted by mentalist Oz Pearlman. The event is portrayed as a break from the usual seriousness of reporting on the important and often dire business of governing the most powerful nation in the world. For some, it’s a welcome respite in which the president can enjoy an innocent back and forth with the media. In turn, the media gets to drop its veneer of seriousness in a friendly atmosphere, at least for one night, before getting back to the customary neutral corners of the octagon that is Washington D.C. politics. Before the President takes to the podium, let’s break down all the latest odds for Trump mentions at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

The 2026 event is markedly different from past WHCDs in that the relationship between President Trump and the media is, at best, combative. At worst, it is baleful. During his time as president, Trump has steadfastly refused to appear at the event, a notable deviation from precedent. In the past, Trump has proclaimed (paraphrasing) that he does not have time for such trivialities as he’s trying to Make America Great Again and it’s a 24/7 job. The reality is that he hates the media and believes it is out to get him no matter what he does. So why give them the satisfaction of appearing at their event as though bygones are bygones?

There are justified questions about the event’s propriety to begin with. The media is supposed to be an evenhanded conduit between the government and the population. While that is a utopian viewpoint that has never truly been the case, the quid pro quo nature and inherent partisanship is the worst it’s ever been. And it’s not getting any better. Clicks take precedence over objective information. Trump, with his five-plus decades of experience in the public eye, understands how the game works. He feels that a press that was once his transactional ally, betrayed him by willfully distorting what he says, thus granting him the right to refer to them as “fake news.”

Never ever forget that it is widely believed that President Barack Obama’s vicious roasting of then-citizen Trump at the 2011 WHCD is believed to have been the spark that sent Trump on his way to seriously running for president. Trump was in the audience and put on a brave face for the cameras, but he was enraged at the public chastisement.

Since this is Trump’s first appearance at the event, prediction markets are offering options as to what words and phrases he might use when he appears onstage and gets his chance to roast the press in a less serious environment than a normal presidential press conference or gaggle.

Odds for Trump Mentions at White House Correspondents’ Dinner

Those feeling confident that Trump will say a word or phrase can use the Kalshi referral code to take advantage of a $10 Sign Up Bonus for new users after they have completed $10 in trades.

This market has recently surpassed $315,000, but as the WHCD draws nearer, it will assuredly rise exponentially.

Since Trump has a showman’s sensibility combined with a vindictive personality, it is likely he will mix comedy with outright hostility. The question is whether it will be directed at the attendees, political enemies, celebrities, or some random person who’s drawn his ire.

The available words or phrases Trump might use at the WHCD vary. They include his usual attacks against the media, discussing current events, and justifying his actions as president. At the end of the day, it’s Trump, so he might say anything.

Market rules dictate that if Trump says a selected word or phrase at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be reputable. That includes The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, Axios, CNN, and others. It can also be from The White House.

The criteria can be complicated and have nuance, so it’s important to understand them beforehand.

Fake News

To Trump, the only thing funnier than a poisonous barb is uttering said poisonous barb right in the face of the target of his vitriol. He has a captive audience with the correspondents at his mercy. And mercy will not be forthcoming. “Fake news” is one of the president’s favorite phrases and it’s not a random slogan. He means it. He really thinks a vast percentage of the media is fake news. This is based on his experience in his past life manipulating it with outright untruths or preposterous exaggerations.

He’s likely going to say “fake news” and the percentage is in the mid-80s attesting to that prediction.

Truth

There are certain words that can be sprinkled in when discussing multiple concepts. “Truth” is one such word.

Since Trump views the media as lying incessantly, it stands to reason that he might say “truth” at least once during his appearance, even if it’s an aside as part of a pre-planned bit.

It could come out as “The truth is…” or “The media refuses to tell the truth…”

The current percentage is in the mid-60s range.

Sleepy Joe

Trump can’t resist taking potshots at his successor/predecessor, former President Joseph R. Biden. It still stings Trump that he lost to Biden in the first place. That enmity was evident at a White House Easter event for children when Trump sat with several kids and told them about Biden and his frequent use of the Autopen.

Will Trump mention “Sleepy Joe” as part of a comedy bit?

It’s a good bet he will. The percentage is in the 60s.

Barack Hussein Obama

As mentioned earlier, Trump was livid at Obama humiliating him publicly. Since Obama received what Trump perceives as a lifetime free pass from media criticism, it only adds to his anger at the former president. It’s not assured that he mentions “Barack Hussein Obama” and the market has it at about 50% that he will. But if Trump wants to get vengeance at the same forum where Obama attacked him, it would be symbolic and on brand.

AI/Artificial Intelligence

Trump has a unique ability of sensing a target’s weak points and exploiting them. The media is reticent or outright fearful of the rise of artificial intelligence since it is putting many jobs in jeopardy. “AI/Artificial Intelligence” is just the type of thing that Trump would say to send a menacing message to the media that they all might be out of work relatively soon if the advancements continue, as they inevitably will.

It is around 25% on the market that he says “AI/Artificial Intelligence.”

The post Odds for Trump Mentions at White House Correspondents’ Dinner appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Donald J. Trump is set to speak at a Turning Point USA event to motivate conservative young voters to turn out for the Republican Party
• This is a key voting bloc for the GOP in its attempt to retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the coming midterms
• Prediction markets are speculating on what Trump will say at TPUSA amid the series of challenges he’s facing that are likely to define his second term as president

As he travels to Arizona to speak at the Turning Point USA: Build the Red Wall event, President Trump is well aware of the litany of obstacles he faces in pushing forward with his agenda. Since the House will almost assuredly fall under Democrat control after the midterms, keeping the Senate in GOP hands is crucial. Polls show that young voters have been disenchanted with Trump’s handling of the Middle East, the economy, and immigration.

Now, the president has antagonized them further with a series of unforced errors, including picking a fight with the Pope and posting images of himself as a Biblical figure. The former is inexplicable, and the latter is egregiously offensive to people of faith. That the TPUSA event is being held at a church only emphasizes how much borderline groveling Trump might need to do to bring those young voters back from the brink of apathy.

Trump had a great affinity for TPUSA’s co-founder, Charlie Kirk, and has been a consoling voice for his widow, TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk.

While Trump is, by nature, combative and tends to double and triple down when cornered, he is aware of the contextually abysmal polling numbers for young Republicans regarding his overall job approval and the Iran conflict. He remains above water with that demographic, but it’s not overwhelming like it normally would be in favor of the party’s standard bearer.

Prediction markets offer options on what Trump will say during his TPUSA remarks. Some are obvious. Others, less so.

Odds for What Trump Will Say at TPUSA Event

The market volume is getting heavy action and will be settled quickly since the president is speaking in a few hours.

Trump can be predictable, using the same terms over and over again. But he is also prone to shooting off the cuff and ignoring the text of his speech with lengthy stream-of-consciousness asides.

For example, there’s little point in investing in the word “midterm” since it’s such a key concern. And of course, he’s going to refer to himself in the third person.

Apart from that, there is a seemingly endless list of options.

For those who want to take part in this market, the Kalshi referral code will unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus for new users once $10 in trades are completed.

If President Trump says the selected word or phrase when he speaks at the Turning Point USA: Build the Red Wall event, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable one, including Fox News, CBS, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, ABC, and others. The primary way in which the market will be resolved is through video of the event itself. The payout criteria can be complicated, so it is imperative to understand the rules beforehand.

What Might Trump Say at TPUSA?

Radical Left

Trump knows how to motivate people through fear and intimidation. Saying “radical left” will do the trick with the TPUSA crowd. Regardless of how event-goers feel about Trump personally or how he’s handling the job, the possibility that the Democrats will take charge of Congress and hamstring Trump for the remainder of his term is potentially catastrophic for them.

Trump will almost certainly say “radical left.” The percentages are in the mid-80s.

Cheat/Cheater/Cheated

This is a familiar Trump lament. Whenever he loses or is in danger of losing, he retreats to accusing the other side of cheating. In this case, he will use the word in a similar manner as he would “radical left” and emphasize that if young voters don’t get out and support the GOP, it will be easier for the other side to cheat.

Since he says the word so often when he feels as though he’s under siege, there’s a very good chance he says it. Its percentage is in the mid-70s.

Afford/Affordability/Affordable

Because this is one of the stated concerns of young voters in the negative polling Trump and the GOP are receiving, it’s likely that he tries to address it. Touting his economic agenda and how it will benefit the attendees is a safe bet. There is also another angle he could take to use “afford” if he tries to defend his actions in the Middle East by saying, “We, as a country, could not afford to let Iran get a nuclear weapon.”

There is value here with “afford/affordability/affordable” at around 55%.

ICE/TSA

Polling shows that young voters believe the president’s immigration enforcement policy has been heavy-handed and cruel, so he might mention it. If he does, he could reference the word “ICE” to credit agents for the job they are doing. This market has “ICE/TSA” as an option, but it’s difficult to imagine him saying “TSA.”

The current percentage is in the mid-50s.

TikTok

While saying “TikTok” might be something that a person of Trump’s age might say to a younger person because “they’re into that Ticky-Tocky thing” without really knowing what it is as a way of connecting with them in an admittedly clumsy way, he did back down on his threats to ban it outright. Now, there is a restructured agreement that served as a face-saving escape hatch to keep it active in the USA. He even brought significant money into U.S. coffers with the deal.

While it’s unlikely he says “TikTok,” it might be worth a roll of the dice since it’s at about 30%.

The post Odds for Trump Mentions at Turning Point USA Event appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The March 3rd Texas Senate Primary resulted in the Democrats nominating James Talarico and the Republicans needing a runoff between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton
• Cornyn and Paxton are campaigning heavily in their build-up to the May 26th Runoff Election
• As the runoff election approaches, the markets on the Texas Senate Winner on Kalshi continue to get tighter

While the Democrats came out of the Texas Senate primary knowing James Talarico will be their candidate in November, the Republicans are left dealing with a heated runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Talarico has spent his time since the primary focusing on campaign strategy to win over swing and African-American voters. As he looks to unify voters, the Republican Party is dealing with a rift in its base.

Cornyn and Paxton have launched targeted campaigns focused on tearing each other down. Both have used AI-generated videos pointing out one another’s shortcomings, such as Paxton’s ethical liabilities and Cornyn’s vacation while there is still a partial government shutdown. An endorsement from President Trump could end this and save the candidates millions of dollars that could be used instead against Talarico; however, Trump has remained silent on the topic so far.

The infighting in the Republican Party has conceded considerable ground to the chance of a Democrat winning the Texas Senate seat, according to prediction markets. With over seven months to go until the midterm elections, early traders have already shown heavy interest in this race.

Odds for Texas Senate Winner in 2026

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 sign up bonus after completing $10 in trades. There is also the option to trade on Polymarket, and new users can claim the Polymarket invite code to skip the waitlist and secure an offer to deposit $20 and get a $20 bonus.

The Republicans looked like a shoo-in to win the Texas Senate seat in 2026 until January, when the 80% implied win probability they had carried for two straight years began to slip away. The combination of a potential runoff mixed with fallout from President Trump’s actions in Venezuela and Iran likely contributed heavily to traders’ falling confidence in the party’s ability to win the seat.

By the time the primary came on March 3rd, the Republicans’ lead had been reduced to just 60%. While they still do not know who will be their candidate in the midterms, they have managed to hold onto their slight in the last month, currently sitting at 58% after gaining a recent bit of momentum. However, with over a month to go and plenty of mudslinging to still happen, these two candidates could burn this lead to the ground before they even decide who will run against Talarico.

While the runoff creates unnecessary campaign spending and divides the Republican party, right now could present a chance for traders to lock in good value on Talarico’s market if they believe he could be the first Democrat to win the seat since 1988. His market is currently on a downward trend, but could gain traction when the dust settles in the Republican runoff, and a new batch of undecided voters enters the pool.

Could a Democrat Win the Texas Senate Seat in 2026?

Just a few months ago, the thought of a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Texas seemed like a long shot, but now, just 208 days from the midterms, it is starting to look like there could be a legitimate chance. While John Cornyn and Ken Paxton raise and burn valuable campaign dollars to point out each other’s flaws, James Talarico is ramping up his efforts to pick up moderate voters and win over African-American voters who may be hesitant to vote for a white Presbyterian candidate. Talarico does not need to worry about spending time or effort campaigning against the Republican Party, as they are doing that for him throughout their runoff.

The longer it goes without President Trump endorsing Cornyn or Paxton, the more ground Talarico can make up in the polls. While an endorsement from Trump may help settle the runoff, it may not help the candidates in the long term as the president’s approval rating sinks to new lows due to rising costs of living and the ongoing war in Iran. Unless the administration turns things around over the summer, Talarico might be able to take the lead on Kalshi and carry that momentum into a historic win in the midterms.

The post Odds for Texas Senate Winner as Republican Candidate Still Undecided appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The DHS shutdown has reached day 51, with Congress not set to return until the week of April 13th
• Amid the ongoing stall, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called on Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to end the House of Representatives’ recess early to reopen DHS
• Prediction markets have taken great interest in the matter, with a high trading volume on when the partial government shutdown will end

The record-breaking DHS shutdown has entered its 51st day, while the House and the Senate are in the middle of a two-week recess. The Senate did pass a bill to fund DHS, but the House left for its break before attempting to advance the bill. Now House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is calling for the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, to bring the House of Representatives back to session early to work on ending the shutdown.

Although TSA is now being paid through an executive order signed by President Trump, travelers are still experiencing long security lines and other delays as many airports are understaffed due to agents quitting or still calling out sick. The end of the spring break season will help ease tensions at the airports for the next several weeks, but with the FIFA World Cup starting in June, there is still pressure to get DHS funded sooner rather than later.

The looming influx of travelers and attention on U.S. travel during the World Cup is clearly on the President’s mind. Trump has endorsed a two-track plan to pass the bill presented by the Senate and fill in its gaps with a reconciliation bill to fund ICE and CBP that will only require 51 votes, instead of the standard 60, and gave Congress a June 1st deadline. While this makes the path to ending the shutdown easier, it does not guarantee it, with GOP fiscal hawks and moderates likely to be a hard sell on the reconciliation bill, especially with the midterms approaching.

Traders on prediction markets have rushed to take positions on when DHS will be funded again, now that a potential end is in sight for the first time in weeks. With Congress still out on recess for the next week, this could be the last chance for traders to find value in this market before meaningful progress is made to end the partial shutdown.

The Polymarket invite code will supply an offer for new users to deposit $20 and get a $20 bonus for trading on a variety of prediction markets.

When will the DHS Shutdown End?

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 sign up bonus after completing their first $10 trade on any market.

According to the markets, confidence that Hakeem Jeffries’ call to bring Congress back to session early and fund DHS immediately is low. Kalshi shows that an April 8th target date is currently less than a 1% implied win probability; the markets for the end of the shutdown are trending closer to before May 1st. After hitting a high of 99% when the Senate passed the funding bill, the market tanked down to 49% as the House went on recess before taking any action on it. However, it regained life, hitting 95%, on April 1st when President Trump endorsed a two-part plan to restore funding to DHS and ensure ICE and CBP will be separately funded for the next three years. That momentum has stalled a bit while Congress remains on its two-week break, but it is holding around 62% and 73%.

Virtually mirroring the rise and fall of the May 1st market is a slightly more optimistic contingent of traders that believe the shutdown will end before April 22nd. This market has reached similar highs, such as 99% when the Senate passed the funding bill, and even surpassed the May 1st market after the bill received Trump’s endorsement. It currently sits at a 51% implied win probability. The April 22nd deadline, combined with Congress likely not returning until the week of April 13th, puts a tight squeeze on this market, resulting in a “yes.”

The June 1st deadline that Trump issued on April 1st has re-solidified the “before June 1, 2026” market, which had dipped to its lowest point of 71.9%. While not as strong as it was in mid-March, this market has been hovering around 88% for the last week, and with the President’s given timeline, it could be a hedge option for some traders.

Will the DHS Shutdown End Before the Start of the World Cup?

President Trump’s deadline for Congress to end the shutdown by June 1st aligns with the thought that he does not want this to disrupt travel in the U.S. while the country welcomes an influx of international travelers for the FIFA World Cup. With over a month of matches taking place all over the U.S., many are hoping the country’s airport issues will be resolved by then. The market on Kalshi for the shutdown to end before “June 1, 2026” certainly looks like the safest option that can provide some value to traders.

However, now that President Trump has endorsed a plan to both pass the Senate’s bill and fund ICE and CBP, traders may find more value in the “before May 1, 2026” market. While that only gives the House roughly two weeks to pass the bill, there is an incentive to pass it quickly. The more time the bill sits around, the more time moderates and fiscal hawks in the GOP have to dwell on the concessions they are being asked to make in order to pass it. It could be a full-court press on the House Republicans to pass this bill immediately upon returning from their recess next week.

The post When Will DHS be Funded Again? Odds from Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Donald J. Trump will address the nation on Wednesday evening to discuss the ongoing Middle East conflict
• He is expected to give a relatively definitive timeline regarding U.S. involvement and when it will end
• Prediction markets are speculating on what he will say during this address with obvious options and some under-the-radar possibilities that fall in line with his usual lexicon

Just over one year into his second term, President Trump is dealing with an array of global and domestic challenges. At the top of the list is the conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. joining Israel in an aggressive attempt at regime change in Iran was polarizing at first. Now, it is tilting toward national disfavor that goes beyond a united Democratic party and is extending to large swaths of the GOP.

This is problematic for Trump in multiple ways, not the least of which is the rapidly approaching midterm elections. The Democrats were widely expected to take control of the House of Representatives. Now the Senate is also believed to be in jeopardy. Democrats controlling both chambers would be severely hinder Trump’s final two years in the Oval Office.

It’s clear the president understands this and he will use the bully pulpit to state his case when he addresses the nation on Wednesday, April 1.

Iran will absolutely be at the center of the address. But other issues like immigration, the Supreme Court, gas prices, and more could come into play.

Prediction markets are providing odds as to what Trump will say during his speech.

Some of the words or phrases are patently obvious and the odds reflect that. Others, however, are less assured but still fall in with Trump’s customary speech patterns and how he tends to go off script. So even if a pre-speech transcript or a basic outline is provided, he is certain to throw in a few Trumpian asides.

Odds for What Trump Will Say on Wednesday

The market is at $1.5 million and will rise throughout the day.

Some words hold little value because it is close to 100% assured that Trump will say them. “Nuclear” is one such word. Others are likely, but not guaranteed.

The options run the gamut of topical phrases and familiar Trump talking points. To jump in with a prediction, the Kalshi referral code will unlock a $10 Sign Up Bonus for new users after $10 in trades have been completed.

If a word or phrase is selected and the president says it during his address, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be credible. That includes The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CBS, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, The White House, and others.

The market will be resolved by using a video of the speech itself. The rules are specific and there are variables, so it is important to understand them beforehand.

Deal/Settle

Currently “deal/settle” is hovering at around 85%. That’s surprisingly low considering Trump’s affinity for the word “deal.”

“Settle” is more questionable.

Making a deal is the foundation of everything Trump says and does. Sometimes it’s from a position of strength when his demands are set in stone. At other times, he’s more flexible with an end goal in mind that is far less stringent than his most incendiary rhetoric, which is more often than not a negotiating tactic.

He’s going to say “deal.”

Negotiate/Negotiated/Negotiation

This is looming in the 70% range.

Again, some form of “negotiate” is always out front in Trump’s mind. In general, he saves his more bellicose threats for social media. When he’s speaking, it’s more nuanced.

Why this word would be at such a low percentage is a mystery. Of course, Trump will throw in a few “or else” messages to the Iranian leadership. But the basis will be to get this over with as quickly as possible. The word “negotiation” will unavoidably be said in the speech.

Gas/Gasoline

While Trump will be focused on the Middle East, he also has domestic matters to contend with. That includes gas prices. The market has “gas/gasoline” at around 60%.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the biggest points of contention between the U.S. and Iran. Threats and overt attacks on oil transports have put gas prices in flux. They recently surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Because Trump has been touting his economic bona fides and how his policies are meant to be friendly to businesses and consumers, this is worrisome, especially as public support of the ongoing conflict is declining rapidly, even among Trump’s most ardent supporters.

He will absolutely try to assuage public fears about gas prices.

Midnight Hammer

“Midnight Hammer” is in the 55% range.

This was the name for the June 22, 2025 airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Does anyone even remember this? It was just over nine months ago and it’s highly possible that Trump himself won’t even recall it.

Sure, it’s possible that his speechwriters slip it in there, but why? The current action is called “Operation Epic Fury.” It’s very difficult to envision Trump mentioning “Midnight Hammer.”

Supreme Court

Since it’s Trump, even if the speech is to discuss the Middle East, he will send none-too-subtle messages about the rest of his agenda.

The U.S. Supreme Court is hearing arguments over Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship. The consensus in legal circles is that the court will rule against the administration.

As the arguments commenced, Trump took the unprecedented step in attending the hearing. No sitting president has ever attended oral arguments in front of the Supreme Court.

This was a clear attempt to intimidate the justices and was a sign that the president is aware of where his E.O. is headed.

Regardless, given Trump’s penchant for sending messages and airing grievances independent of the forum, it’s easy to see him saying “Supreme Court” during his address.

The current percentage is at around 20%, which makes it a good value pick.

The post Odds for Trump Mentions During Wednesday Address to the Nation appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The race to become the next Governor of California is heating up as the June 2nd primary approaches
• With Gavin Newsom being term-limited, the state will elect its first new governor since 2019
• Over $4.8M has already been traded on this market at Kalshi, with over 220 days to go before it will resolve

With the field set, there are currently 10 candidates running to be the next governor of California, comprised of eight democrats and two republicans. In a state that takes the top two voter getters from its June 2nd primary regardless of party, this crowded ballot could work against the Democrats.

A Berkley ISG survey shows that the two Republican candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, are the favorites to win, with 17% and 16% of the vote, respectively. The poll had Eric Swalwell slightly behind at 14%, Katie Porter at 13%, Tom Steyer at 10%, and the rest of the field holding 5% or less. State Party Leader Rusty Hicks has called for Democratic candidates who cannot make “meaningful progress” by April 15th to drop out of the race to help create a more unified front against the Republican opponents.

While the polls may show a close race with two Republicans in the lead, the prediction markets for this race show a much different story. Traders on Kalshi believe that Eric Swalwell is the clear favorite to be the next California governor, with both Republican options failing to even crack the top three.

Odds for Next California Governor

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to secure a $10 sign up bonus after they complete $10 in trades.

As Gavin Newsom eyes a potential run to be the next President of the United States, traders on Kalshi are focused on who will replace the term-limited governor and have shown up in force early with $4.8M in volume already on this market. These traders have not been shy about who they believe will win the governor’s seat, with Representative Eric Swalwell holding a dominant 60% implied win probability, 47% higher than his next closest opponent.

Swalwell has held a commanding lead from the time he announced his run. Entering with an implied win probability of 40%, he has only watched that figure grow as his campaign amps up. Prior to Swalwell joining the race, the early favorite was Katie Porter, who once held a high of 44%, but now sits at just 4%.

The race for second place on Kalshi is tightly contested between billionaire Tom Steyer, at 13%, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, at 13%. Mahan looked like a strong contender on Kalshi when he formally announced his intent to run, hitting a high of 33%; however, that early enthusiasm quickly waned.

Interestingly, while a Berkley ISG found Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to be the favorites among those polled, these two Republican candidates sit at just 7% and 6% on Kalshi. While Swalwell may be the favorite in this prediction market, the crowded Democratic field could split voters and ensure both Republicans end up on the ballot come November. With their current implied win probability being so low, traders could find value in one of the two Republican candidates pulling off an upset as the Democratic party struggles to consolidate the field.

Eric Swalwell

U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell is both the top polling Democratic candidate, at 14%, and the clear favorite on Kalshi, at 60%, to be the next California Governor. Swalwell has based much of his campaign around keeping President Trump’s policies out of California with a focus on protecting residents regardless of their immigration status and fighting off Trump’s attacks on the blue state. He is following in Gavin Newsom’s footsteps by being a constant presence on the news, taking a vocal stand against the president.

Contributing to his strong lead on Kalshi is backing from politicians and celebrities alike, with endorsements from Senator Adam Schiff of California and actor Sean Penn. As Swalwell has only watched his lead grow since joining the race, it is hard to see him relinquishing his lead. An endorsement from Newsom could all but seal the deal for Swalwell; however, that may not come as Newsom looks to rely on his many friends in California during his bid for the presidency.

Tom Steyer

Tom Steyer is an interesting case to represent the Democrats in this election. While the party works on policies aimed at wealth inequality, electing a billionaire with no political experience could be a tough sell to the more progressive voters. However, Steyer may be one of the more progressive candidates in the mix. He has been a leader in California on the fight against climate change and has called for the wealthy to be taxed more.

Helping his cause is the fact that he has been able to bankroll his own campaign, having already spent $30 million on ads to raise his name recognition and platform. While he may lack a background in politics, he has garnered powerful endorsements from Representative Ro Khanna and the California Nurses Association. Between his past climate activism, his desire to tax the wealthy, and support from two major players in the state, he may be able to overcome the party’s prejudice against billionaires and use his money to help make meaningful change in the state as the next governor of California.

Sitting at 13% on Kalshi, he has a long way to go before the June 2nd primary and will likely need to get a few more endorsements if he hopes to catch Swalwell.

Matt Mahan

Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, is tied for second with Tom Steyer on Kalshi at a 13% implied win probability. While he may be tied with Steyer in the prediction markets, in the polls, he only received 4% of the vote to Steyer’s 10%. However, he remains confident that he can sway voters before the primary by presenting himself as an option for the moderates.

While Mahan may not be a billionaire like Steyer, he is backed by more billionaires than any other candidate and has received millions from tech executives. His source of funding may make him an even harder candidate to back than Steyer, as voters may see him being compromised through these campaign donations. Further hurting his chances is that he is unlikely to get an endorsement from Newsom, as he has not been afraid to criticize the sitting governor.

He may be a top-three option on Kalshi, but real-world polling tells a very different story, making Mahan’s run seem like a long shot that could ultimately do more harm to the party than good if he sticks around for the primary.

The post Prediction Market Odds for Next California Governor appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The field of candidates is taking shape for the 2028 Presidential nominations as the midterm elections quickly approach
• Favorites to win the nomination have emerged for both the Republican and Democratic parties
• See the latest odds for 2028 Presidential Nominees, according to prediction markets

The midterm elections are still a few months away, but many are already keeping an eye on who will announce their run for each party’s presidential nomination. Just a little more than seven months before the mudslinging and constant barrage of ads for candidates from both sides take over televisions and radio across the country.

Already, there is an ever-growing list of potential nominees for both the Republicans and the Democrats, many of whom have begun making some noise in the media and laying the groundwork for a campaign. With a list of options ranging from governors who have hit their term limits, members of the current administration’s Cabinet, members of Congress, and even political commentators, the build-up to the primaries will be filled with attention-grabbing headlines, rallies across the nation, and fundraising.

While voters still have months until they can participate in their party’s primary, they can voice their opinions on who should get the 2028 presidential nomination on Kalshi. Between prediction markets for the Democratic and Republican nominees, there is already almost $100 million in volume on the outcomes of these primaries.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to secure a $10 sign up bonus after making their first $10 in trades on one of these markets or one of the many other options.

Latest Odds for Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028

While there has been a clear favorite among traders on prediction markets as to who will win the Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2028, there is no shortage of challengers. Other than a brief moment in May 2025, California Governor Gavin Newsom has been the favorite on the prediction market, holding a 37.2% implied win probability at his peak so far. Since comments about his struggles with dyslexia, a fact that President Trump belittled him about, his lead has slightly shrunk, but he still has nearly a 20% lead over the competition.

Sitting in second on Kalshi is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) at 8.4%. Although she has the name recognition and the background to support a run at the presidency, she may instead focus her efforts on taking over Chuck Schumer’s lead role in the Senate. Jon Ossoff is holding strong in 3rd at 6.5%, nudging out Josh Shaprio, who is sitting at 6.1%. Ossoff can make a strong case to be the nominee as a Democrat who has one in a red state, showing he can appeal to moderates and undecided voters. Shapiro was an early favorite who had watched his grasp on the market slip away after being neck and neck with Newsom in the wake of the last election. Backers of Shapiro may be waiting to see how his re-election bid for Pennsylvania Governor goes before getting involved in this prediction market.

The strongest dark-horse candidate at the moment is one who is actually leading in the polls for the Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. While the polls may favor her, history does not. The last time the Democrats ran a presidential nominee who previously failed to win was in 1956 with Adlai Stevenson, who went on to lose again. Harris will have to do a lot of campaigning if she hopes to flip the script on this 70-year trend and rise from her current standings at just 4.4%.

Keep up with all the latest news for this market using our Democratic Party Presidential Nominee odds tracker.

Latest Odds for Republican Presidential Nominee in 2028

The race for the Republican Presidential Nominee appears to be tightening up, after months of JD Vance leading the pack. Until the January military operation in Venezuela, Vance held a 40% lead over the rest of the field, with Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis treading water in the single digits. However, between the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the war in Iran, Marco Rubio has seen his stock rise as he gets more screen time on the world stage.

As Vance takes a back seat during these international affairs, he has watched his implied win probability fall from 56% down to 37.3%, while Rubio has used the spotlight to climb up to 27.4%. With no clear end in sight for the war in Iran and President Trump talking about taking action in Cuba, Rubio may be able to carry this momentum and exposure to take the lead on Kalshi. For Vance, an extended war could help his chances in the long run, as he is historically anti-war, and as it drags on, people may grow tired of another endless war and place the blame on Rubio.

Ron DeSantis was seen as a strong potential candidate in 2024 for Republicans looking for a candidate other than Trump; however, he failed to gain enough traction to overtake Trump. At the start of Trump’s second term, there was some lingering favor for DeSantis in the prediction market, with him sitting at 7.3%, but that excitement has faded and left him at just 3.4% today.

Supplanting DeSantis in third is Tucker Carlson at 4.8% on Kalshi. The former Fox News host certainly has the name recognition to attract a large portion of the MAGA base who would tune in nightly to watch his show. While he lacks the background of a career politician, he is already garnering favor from political allies, like Marjorie Taylor Greene. If he were to launch a run for the nomination, he would have a distinct advantage over the rest of the candidates in that he has his own marketing machine built through his popular podcast series, “The Tucker Carlson Show” that attracts millions of views every month.

Stay in the loop with all the latest news for this market with our dedicated Republican Party Presidential Nominee odds tracker.

The post Tracking the Latest Odds for 2028 Presidential Nominees appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Scott McConnell, founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, recently called for Vice President JD Vance to support the use of the 25th Amendment
• Section IV of the 25th Amendment allows the Vice President and members of the Cabinet to declare the President unable to perform their duties and replace them
• Traders on Kalshi are closely following this volatile prediction market as new voices call for the enactment of the 25th Amendment

Over the weekend, Scott McConnell, a co-founder of The American Conservative magazine, posted on X a call for Vice President JD Vance to use the 25th Amendment to remove President Trump from office and insert himself in the role. The 25th Amendment was written into law in 1967 after John F. Kennedy’s assassination to create a constitutional procedure to transfer Presidential powers for a variety of reasons.

Most commonly, it’s used to temporarily transfer powers to the vice president while the president undergoes surgery. Former Presidents Joe Biden and George W. Bush have used the amendment while undergoing medical procedures during their terms, with each transfer lasting no more than a few hours. While this use case is temporary and enacted by the president, Section IV of the 25th Amendment allows for the Vice President and members of the Cabinet to vote for the removal of the sitting president.

Section IV has never been formally invoked, though there have been rumblings of using it during both of President Trump’s terms, progressing as far as the House voting 223-205 in 2021 to adopt a resolution to compel Vice President Pence to invoke the amendment. Pence ultimately did not go forward with the resolution, resulting in Trump being impeached by the House.

Calls for the 25th Amendment during his second term started gaining traction in October 2025 after a series of speeches and Truth Social posts left some questioning whether or not Trump was fit for office. The calls grew louder during Trump’s continued efforts to annex Greenland in January. The latest call for the use of the 25th Amendment comes as the US enters its 3rd week of war with Iran and mixed messaging about the war coming from the president and his Cabinet.

As Trump’s second term progresses, there is growing confidence from traders on prediction markets that the vice president may invoke the 25th Amendment. Users can trade on whether or not Section IV will be used during Trump’s presidency.

Odds for 25th Amendment to be Used on President Trump

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to secure a $10 sign up bonus when they complete $10 in trades.

From the time President Trump took office for the second time, there has been a market with some confidence that the 25th Amendment will be used to remove him from his seat. In January 2025, the market on Kalshi was already showing a 15% implied probability of the president being removed from power.

The market remained fairly stable until a July roundtable on immigration, where Trump went off topic and began talking about water pressure, which was the beginning of months of turbulence. This volatility has continued to the present day, with the markets swinging from lows of 15% to highs of 34.1% based on the president’s comments, speeches, social media posts, and military actions. After hitting its high of 34.1% as the partial government shutdown began, the market has experienced less sweeping swings and remained between 27-34%, with a slow creep upwards as the war in Iran drags on.

The market will resolve as a “Yes” if Vice President Vance and a majority of President Trump’s Cabinet hand Congress a written declaration that Trump is unable to fulfill his duties as president before the end of his second term.

Will President Trump be Removed from Office by the 25th Amendment?

While some of the calls for the invocation of the 25th Amendment are coming from within the Republican party, it is unlikely that these calls will ever become more than a flashy headline. The Democrats were unable to force the issue in 2021 when they controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate, as they also needed the Vice President and members of the President’s Cabinet to agree to the calls. With the Republicans currently controlling both the House and the Senate and midterms approaching, it would be unprecedented for them to deliver such a massive blow to their own party.

It would be far more likely to see the Democrats push for impeachment after the midterms if they are able to secure the House and the Senate. Impeachment would be the path of least resistance to remove the president from office, as it only requires a two-thirds vote from Congress, while the 25th Amendment would require the same two-thirds approval along with the vote of the Vice President and the Cabinet.

The post See Odds for 25th Amendment to be Used During Trump Presidency appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Trump ticked off his list of accomplishments during his State of the Union speech, including a drop in egg prices
• Trump is and forever will be known for hyperbole and his grandiose rhetoric, never afraid to tout his own accomplishments
• Prediction markets are available for trading on egg prices and whether they will rise this month

President Trump has never shied away from taking credit, whether it’s warranted or not. For many, he exists in a world of endless accomplishments and nonexistent failures. Even his Chapter 11 bankruptcies (plural) are cast as a necessary evil of being a real estate developer and dealing with the vagaries of the economy and how it impacts family-run businesses like the Trump Organization.

It has undoubtedly served him well since enough people believe in the adjective “Trump” and its hype that they elected him president twice.*

*Three times, if you ask him.

Still, facts are facts. And math is the most objective determining factor for markets, purchasing power, and economics. Since a primary reason Trump was elected president again in 2024 was the cost of living and rising expenses, any price reduction is cause for celebration. Of particular importance were basics like eggs. In his recent State of the Union address, Trump touted his policies and how eggs and other proteins are far cheaper than they were when he walked back into the Oval Office.

Trump was telling the truth about eggs, and there was little exaggeration in what he said at the SOTU. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of eggs has declined by around 59% from nearly one year ago. Trump said it had dropped by 60%. Remarkably close to accurate, not just for Trump, but for any politician. Even an economist would likely round it off to 60%. However, inconvenient facts say egg prices are being affected by supply and demand, and that Trump’s policies did not influence egg prices one way or the other.

This can always change at a moment’s notice based on issues like bird flu or a catastrophe of some kind.

Prediction markets offer options to trade on whether egg prices will rise by the end of February.

Will the Price of Eggs Increase in February?

On Valentine’s Day, the prediction markets had egg prices at around 20% to rise in February. Three days later, it had risen to nearly 40% before settling at approximately 33% and staying there.

This is one of those unusual instances where everyone — Republicans, Democrats, and even those who do not identify one way or the other and are relatively indifferent to politics in general — want egg prices to stay at their current levels or go lower.

A critical part of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s attempt to remake American dietary recommendations is to increase the consumption of protein. He has even advocated the Keto diet, which is heavily in favor of high protein, moderate fats, and low carbs.

Of course, RFK Jr.’s opinions and how he delivers them are even more polarizing than even President Trump, a known lover of fast food, not adhering to dietary advice from anyone other than maybe the Hamburglar.

As the month draws to a close, those who want to jump into the egg price market can do so using the Kalshi referral code, which will supply a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $10 in trades have been completed.

Egg Prices Unlikely to Rise in February

There are only a few days remaining in February. Apart from something sudden and devastating happening within the next day or so, is there time for the prices to spike sufficiently to go beyond what they were in January? Even the winter storms that put much of the Eastern part of the U.S. in a deep freeze did not cause widespread panic to stock staples like eggs. People couldn’t get out of their homes to go to the store, let alone strip the shelves bare.

While there is rampant displeasure, to be gentle, about many of Trump’s statements and policies, one thing that he can say with rare honesty is that the egg prices have dropped precipitously under his stewardship.

A breakout of bird flu would take time to trickle down to the markets and impact consumers. Reduced demand is also causing the decline in prices. Since Easter is coming fast and eggs are in heavy demand during the holiday celebrations, it could reduce supply and lead to a price spike. However, the current landscape is positive for egg-lovers, and it’s not likely change before the end of February.

The post Trade on Odds for Egg Prices This Month After Trump Touts Economic Success appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress is scheduled for Tuesday night
• With Congress and some or all of the Supreme Court present, it gives President Trump a captive audience to simultaneously vent and extol
• Prediction markets are active as to what the President might or might not say this evening

Although the State of the Union address is slated for later this evening, the speech almost never begins on time. This is likely a concession to the networks so they can maximize their viewership, give “pregame” analysis since it’s the Super Bowl of politics, and prolong the anticipation and drama. Given that it’s President Trump, expect spirited back and forth from partisan voices instead of a straight news presentation.

What Time is the State of the Union?

• Start Time: Tuesday, February 24, 2026 – 9:00 pm EST
• How to Watch: News networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC, etc.) will broadcast the event. Users can also stream the State of the Union on the official network YouTube channels.
• Location: House Chamber, U.S. Capitol, Washington, D.C. (Joint-Session of Congress)

President Trump will be aiming to make tonight’s address a memorable one as he tries to reach Americans across the nation. Among the topics to expect the president to weigh in on are: the upcoming 250th anniversary of the country, the economy, immigration, global crises, and much more.

Given the litany of challenges facing Trump and the nation, there are seemingly endless options available on prediction markets as to what he might or might not say during the speech.

Odds for Trump’s State of the Union

Trump takes pride in his unpredictability. However, his personality is such that simmering grievances, old and new, are forever bubbling beneath the surface. Given the fraught nature of the challenges on his plate, the list of potential words and phrases he might say while speaking is endless. A copy of the speech is generally available to the media and public beforehand, but it’s Trump. He’ll veer off when he feels like it or if something pops into his head or line of vision. The text of the speech is a guideline with unavoidable riffs needing to be factored in.

Some words are more obvious than others, and it is all but guaranteed that the President will say them. That includes “Trump,” “hockey,” the “stock market,” and “ICE.” Other possible words/phrases are more understated, but remain possible if not outright probable.

When diving into this market, if Trump says the word or phrase selected, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable one, including the Associated Press, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN, Fox News, or The White House, among many others.

What Might Trump Say During the SOTU?

For new users, the Kalshi referral code will supply a $10 Sign Up Bonus once $100 in trades have been completed.

Cartel

The unprecedented operation to try and capture the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) in Mexico by Mexican Special Forces and their military was ably assisted by U.S. intelligence. The leader, known as “El Mencho” was killed in the raid.

One of Trump’s campaign promises was to cut the flow of illicit drugs into the United States. He has taken the guardrails off in his attempt to follow through on that vow. The word is currently sitting at around 80%. The cartels are responding with massive force in Mexico, but this is something Trump will view as collateral damage. He’ll want to play up the U.S. role in eliminating a dangerous drug lord.

Supreme Court

This is a remarkably low number hovering in the mid-70s range, given how the Supreme Court just ruled against the Trump administration’s attempt to unilaterally install tariffs using what the court stated was a faulty application of the law.

Even more galling to the President is that two of his SCOUTS picks, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, ruled against him in what he’ll see as a personal betrayal. Trump expects fealty. When he doesn’t get it, he unloads. SCOTUS members are expected to be present at the SOTU, so he’s almost assuredly going to say “Supreme Court.”

Somali/Somalia/Somalian

The aggressive ICE raids in Minnesota were partially spurred by an independent investigation into Somalian daycare centers and the money they were taking from the federal government, despite many not even seeming to exist. There is a growing Somali population in the state, and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar, born in Somalia, is a frequent Trump foil. Her rising profile and polarizing personality make her an applause line for the GOP members present.

“Somali/Somalia/Somalian” is at around 50% or slightly lower.

It will be a shocker if he doesn’t say it.

Cheat/Cheater/Cheating

Current odds for Trump saying “cheat/cheater/cheating” are in the mid-40s.

While there is no obvious place for him to say this since it’s been generally accepted that he won handily in the 2024 election, he still enjoys airing previous complaints. It irritates him that he lost to Joe Biden in 2020, so it’s possible he’ll mention it in passing for one reason or another. Perhaps it will be in reference to the coming midterm elections as he sets the foundation to downplay the hammering the Democrats are widely expected to inflict on the GOP directly and, by extension, Trump.

Autopen/Auto Pen

It’s not the most exciting phraseology, but Trump likes taking potshots at his predecessor, Biden, and the 46th President’s frequent use of the autopen. The 45th and 47th President — Trump — just can’t resist these little asides that amuse him.

Odds are relatively low at around 30%, but it might be worthwhile given the potential profit.

The post What Time is the State of the Union? How to Watch and Odds for What Trump Will Say appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Trump is set to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night before a joint session of Congress
• The current political climate is tumultuous, with several hot-button issues both domestically and overseas
• See the latest prediction markets odds for what President Trump will say during his State of the Union Address

President Trump is set to give his State of the Union Address on Tuesday, following an interesting week on several fronts. Among the more impactful current events, the Supreme Court ruled many of the President’s tariffs illegal. Additionally, President Trump issued a public statement that he would be directing the release of government files relating to aliens and UFOs. Tuesday’s State of the Union will see the President showcase his accomplishments from the last year and try to rally support for the Republicans heading into the midterm elections.

Following the wake of the Supreme Court overturning the president’s use of tariffs and a partial government shutdown, the State of the Union gives President Trump a chance to shift focus to the positive things he has achieved. Gaining favor with the viewers needs to be a focal point for Trump, as a recent NPR poll found that the President is changing the country for the worse, which is considerably higher than at any point during his last term.

Prediction markets offer the ability for users to trade on what President Trump will say during his speech. For some direction, traders can look to a Fox News segment where JD Vance mentioned that the president will focus on bringing jobs and factories back to the US and lowering energy costs, highlighting key platforms Trump ran on during his last campaign.

While the eyes of the nation will be tuned into the State of the Union address on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, at 9:00 pm EST, Kalshi is offering markets on what Trump will say during it, including some of his favorite hits like “trillion,” “radical left,” “fake news,” and many more.

Odds for What Will Trump Say During the State of the Union 2026?

Traders on Kalshi are in for a fun night on Tuesday, with the promise of a long speech and markets available for 45 key words and phrases. Over half of the markets are sitting above an implied probability rate of 50%, and it would not take long to scroll through the president’s social media to find most of these terms.

The top spot is a tie between “trillion” and “250” at 93%. Recently, Trump has talked about $18 trillion in new investments in the US, and he is likely to continue talking about that tonight to fire up support for the GOP. The 250th anniversary of the US has long been a favorite topic for him, and Trump rarely misses a chance to tie himself to this historic moment.

“Hockey” sits just below at 91% and is gaining traction. After wins from both the men’s and women’s hockey teams in the Olympics, Trump stated that he would be inviting them to the State of the Union, which sparked growing interest in this market. Now that the women’s team has said that they will not attend, the market has skyrocketed as the president might take this chance to highlight the men’s team for attending or to attack the women’s team for rebuking him.

While some may hope the president does not press any hot-button issues, the market on “ICE/National Guard” appears bullish that Trump will embrace the topic, with public belief up to 90% and rising. Surprisingly, all the way down in 5th is “Trump” at 88%, which, with the president’s affinity for naming things after himself and telling stories about himself, seems low.

While Trump is likely to play all of his greatest hits, Kalshi also offers markets on some more recent phrases and some classics found on the B-side.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to score a $10 Sign Up Bonus when they complete at least $100 in trades.

Odds on Trump saying “Alien” during the State of the Union

This may be the most out there market for tomorrow’s address, and it all stems from a recent headline-grabbing interview with former President Obama, who said that he believes it is likely aliens do exist. Not to be outdone by his predecessor, Trump accused Obama of potentially releasing classified information and later said he may release government files related to aliens. President Trump may continue to steal the spotlight on the topic tonight and gain favor from those holding out hope for confirmation that aliens are real and have visited the planet. However, sitting at 86%, this market feels like it may be a bit of a reach when there are much more pressing matters in the country.

Odds on “Affordability” being said during the State of the Union

The President likes to claim that “affordability” is a new word created by the Democrats to make him look bad, and yet he cannot stop himself from saying it quite often. He will bring it up to point out the Democrats are attacking him or to try to change public perception by pointing to things that have gotten cheaper since he took office. At 63%, this market could offer great value, as much of the country wants to know when things will finally become cheaper after facing years of inflation.

Odds on Trump saying “Radical Left” at the State of the Union Address

Surprisingly, this Trump classic is sitting at only a 75% implied probability rate on Kalshi. With “ICE/National Guard” at 90%, it is easy to see Trump weaving between praising the efforts of ICE and demonizing the “radical left” for protesting the administration’s immigration crackdown. Add in the Supreme Court’s recent ruling where all 3 Democratic Justices sided against him, and it seems all the more likely Trump will go for several hits of the “radical left.”

Odds on Trump saying “Drill Baby Drill” tonight

Could a campaign throwback come out of the closet tonight? With Vance mentioning that the president will focus part of the address on lowering energy costs, it makes sense for the President to bring back this catchphrase he first brought up when he declared a national energy crisis. It would also serve as a reminder to blue-collar workers that he has not forgotten about them and is trying to create more jobs in their sectors. The market sits at just 46%, so it might be a long shot, but with recent strategies failing him, it could be time for a callback.

Odds on “Sleepy Joe” being said during the State of the Union

It wouldn’t be a speech from President Trump without former President Biden catching a stray via the “Sleepy Joe” moniker. Trump rarely misses a shot to bash the former administration and blame them for problems in the country, whether it is the economy, foreign policy, or the border. With all three of those things being hot topics at the moment, Trump is set up to pass the blame on to “Sleepy Joe” before moving on to how he has solved this issue. At 35%, it feels like there is plenty of value to be found here, even though the market has fallen from a high near 50%.

The post Odds on What Trump Will Say During the State of the Union? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• President Trump has ordered the release of files related to alien life, extraterrestrials, UFOs, and other unexplained events
• This is a nonpartisan issue, as people of all political persuasions harbor curiosity about the possibility of life from beyond the stars
• Prediction markets have options to invest in whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of aliens prior to 2027

President Trump recently directed all agencies to release information on extraterrestrials, aliens, unidentified flying objects, and unexplained phenomena that might or might not signify the existence of life beyond Earth. Trump’s announcement comes on the heels of former President Barack Obama saying on a podcast that he believed aliens existed. Obama quickly added that he did not see evidence of that being the case during his time in office.

Believe it or not.

There has long been an appetite for confirmation that aliens not only exist, but make frequent visits to our planet. Films, books, television programs, documentaries, and research have become an ingrained part of the culture. However, there has never been an outright admission by credible sources that humans have encountered extraterrestrials. Far-fetched stories about alien abductions and evidence are everywhere, but thus far, there has not been any legitimate proof presented to the public.

So, is the truth out there? Is there value in the prediction markets that proof will be revealed once the files are released?

 Will There Be Proof That Aliens Exist This Year?

Regardless of a person’s political persuasion and their beliefs, there has long been a fascination with the idea of alien life. From the opening of 2001: A Space Odyssey with the unexplained monolith to the (great) idea of shooting Ryan Gosling into the Sun, the wellspring of ideas related to the boundaries beyond Earth’s atmosphere is never-ending.

Traveling to other planets is an obsession for business titans and innovators, notably Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. Trump himself holds an everyman’s interest in the concept and now has the power to dig into exactly what information is available on the topic,

One does not need to be a conspiracy theorist or a devourer of preposterous science fiction or tabloids at the supermarket checkout to want to know whether there is proof of alien existence. Prediction markets have heavy trading on whether that proof is imminent after Trump’s order to release the files. The current volume has surpassed $5 million and is rising.

The percentage of believers fluctuates, but has settled into a consistent range. Over the past two months, it dropped below 10% at times only to rise again. In recent days, those banking on proof of alien existence spiked to nearly 30% before dropping to around 20%.

New users can claim the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus after completing $100 in trades.

Questionable Timing and Alien Life Are Not Mutually Exclusive

Given the current political climate for President Trump and his party, the decision to release this previously classified information is being categorized by many as an attempt at distraction.

Other global challenges are on the front burner, including the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on a nuclear deal, Venezuela, ICE raids, the partial government shutdown, and the rapidly approaching midterm elections in which the GOP is widely expected to get thrashed.

Hence…whistle The X-Files theme.

Would real-life versions of FBI Agents Mulder and Scully appearing with evidence that the fringe conspiracies they investigate give sufficient cover to Trump and create a viral story that would supersede anything else that’s happening?

Obviously, proof of alien life would be Earth-shattering, so to speak.

Still, even if there is a revelation of long-hidden proof of incidents like the Roswell UFO crash and Area 51 having actually happened, there would still be people who reject it. There is a growing belief that the Moon landing was a staged event, and it’s no longer limited to dark corners of the internet on obscure websites or message boards with networks of like-minded skeptics pushing their theories. Popular commentators like Joe Rogan talk about it regularly, and on major platforms.

Will the release of these files be sufficient proof? And will it happen before the end of 2026?

It might be fun and lucrative to say “yes.” But given the history, allegations of coverups, and continuing debate about it, do not expect the (X) files to prove anything. In fact, the files will probably make the issue even murkier.

Maybe that’s Trump’s intent, given everything else that’s going on.

The post Will Trump Confirm Aliens Exist? See Latest Odds from Prediction Markets appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The partial government shutdown is set to extend to next week as Congress remains out of session
• The Democrats and Republicans remain locked in a standoff over funding and reforms surrounding ICE
• Prediction Markets, like Kalshi, are offering odds on how long the partial shutdown will last

As the partial government shutdown approaches the end of its first week, neither side appears ready to back down from its demands. Democrats are pushing for operational reforms for ICE before they will approve any bill funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), while Republicans wish to avoid such restrictions.

The earliest the shutdown could end would be February 23rd, when Congress returns to the Capitol, just one day ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union address. However, there is little pressure on either side to get a quick resolution.

With ICE and CBP receiving substantial funding from “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” the Republicans are not under pressure to ensure this focal point of the administration does not go unpaid for too long, giving them ample room to drag out the shutdown. On the other side, the Democrats could face mounting criticism if they come out of yet another shutdown with nothing to show for it, especially in the wake of protests and killings in Minnesota.

This partial shutdown will provide the prevailing side with plenty of political capital and momentum going into November’s midterms, further motivating the Democrats and Republicans to not back down on a hot-button topic.

The most recent shutdown only lasted 4 days and garnered little attention, but the first one of Trump’s second term dragged on for a record 43 days. His administration has proven that it has a very strong tolerance to endure these long shutdowns, having also held the previous record for the longest shutdown at 35 days.

Prediction markets are available for eligible users to trade on the length of the government shutdown and potentially profit from their picks.

Prediction Markets Odds for the Government Shutdown

The markets are nearly certain, at 99%, that the government shutdown will last at least 10 days, extending past Congress’s return to session and Trump’s State of the Union address. It is not until day 20 that the market starts to dip to 75%. The odds remain strong going into the 3rd week of March, with 35 days growing traction and currently sitting at 50%.

There is growing belief in the markets that this could be another record-breaking shutdown under Trump, with that number growing to 27% on the government suspension lasting at least 43 days. Beyond that, traders can speculate on it lasting up to 90 days; however, the certainty on those markets diminishes quickly.

With the limited scope of federal employees impacted by this shutdown, it could take weeks before their constituents start pressuring either side to consider a compromise that could get the DHS funding approved. Outside of a large natural disaster requiring action from FEMA and the Coast Guard or mass disruption to air travel from protesting TSA agents, there is little reason to think this will end any time soon.

With the forecasted high in the last week hitting 36.8 days, traders may be able to find extra value right now, with the market having dipped to 35 days this afternoon.

Those wanting a financial stake in the partial government shutdown can use the Kalshi promo code to receive a $10 Sign Up Bonus once they have completed $100 in trades.

Key Dates for the Government Shutdown

It seems safe to assume no deal will be reached before Trump’s State of the Union address, on February 24th, where he will be able to use the shutdown as a powerful talking point to go after the Democrats. In the days following the address, the Democrats will be unlikely to accept any deal to avoid looking like they are giving in to the President’s will.

Day 35, March 21st, is where things could start to get interesting as both sides begin to feel the squeeze from the public to come to a resolution.

During the last extended shutdown, major airport delays became a pressure point for the government as the shutdown began drastically impacting non-government employees. With that in mind, for this shutdown, it’s important to pay attention to the pay schedule of TSA employees to know when they will miss a paycheck and when their tolerance for working without pay might reach its limit.

The first missed paycheck for TSA agents will be at the end of the month. If this shutdown lasts into March, airlines will face the college spring break busy season with disgruntled employees and potentially understaffed. How long will TSA tolerate working without pay, with the last shutdown fresh on their mind? How long are customers willing to put up with longer-than-usual lines?

35 days would put the end of the shutdown in the middle of the spring break season, which makes it feel like a very strong option. If it goes beyond March, this shutdown has the potential to far exceed the previous record as each side of the aisle tries to make its point heard.

Get in on this evolving market and voice your opinion on when the government shutdown will end.

The post See What Prediction Markets are Saying for How Long the Government Shutdown Will Last appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The race to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve is ramping up with embattled current Fed Chair Jerome Powell under criminal investigation as the countdown continues to the end of his term in May
• Head of the National Economic Council (NEC) Kevin Hassett was viewed as the odds-on favorite, but Trump recently said he prefers Hassett to remain in that role than take over the Fed
• Trump’s unexpected statement has roiled prediction markets regarding his upcoming selection to run the Fed

The Federal Reserve rarely gets this level of attention beyond bankers, investors, and economic policy wonks. However, with President Trump pushing for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to depart even before his term ends in May (and he technically does not need to leave the Board of Governors for another two years), there has been rampant speculation over his replacement. Adding into the drama is that Powell is being criminally investigated due to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025.

Trump claims to have had no involvement in the investigation. Powell thinks otherwise.

Regardless, the president is still debating who he will select to replace Powell. In December, Kevin Hassett, Head of the NEC, was the overwhelming favorite. Since then, the race tightened between Hassett and Kevin Warsh. However, during a White House appearance, Trump praised Hassett for his work and, in characteristic Trump fashion, added a seemingly off-the-cuff remark that he would prefer Hassett remain in his current role as the president’s main economic advisor.

There and then, the perception that it was Hassett’s job to lose, came apart. Warsh is a past member of the Board of Governors having served from 2006 to 2011, and now appears to be the most likely candidate to get the nod.

The Candidate Pool for Fed Chair Has Flipped

The persistent question with Trump is how seriously to take what he says in those off-script moments. If, after this, Trump spins around and names Hassett anyway, then it was a meaningless aside. If he names Warsh or another candidate, then it was something to take seriously.

This is the challenge with Trump.

The key with prediction markets is to gauge who better suits the president with his economic objectives. Before becoming part of Trump’s orbit, Hassett was generally seen as a background player in conventional GOP politics having advised John McCain, Mitt Romney, and George W. Bush. Those men, while staunch believers in the free market, low taxes, and business-friendly policies, were not as extreme or aggressive as Trump. Trump’s past life as a businessman, primarily in real estate, has contributed to his worldview that lower rates and lower corporate taxes jumpstart the economy. Now, Hassett is generally in line with Trump.

Warsh is Stanford-educated in economics and statistics, has a law degree from Harvard, and studied at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and Harvard Business School.

In short, he has the credentials that Trump likes to tout and the real world experience to speak shorthand to the president. He believes in lower interest rates and thinks the Fed has been too reliant on what worked in the past rather than looking toward the future.

Christopher Waller is right behind the plummeting Hassett in the prediction markets. Waller is a member of the Board of Governors and was in management at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He is also well-educated with an MA and PhD from Washington State University. If Trump wants someone who shares his enthusiasm for tariffs, Waller is the guy.

Current Markets Now Have Warsh Well Ahead

Prior to the President’s comments, Hassett and Warsh were trading at nearly 50/50 to be nominated as the next Fed Chair. After Trump’s recent statement (ad libbed or not), Warsh’s odds vaulted to the front at over 60%, while Hassett fell to under 20%, followed by Waller under 15%. Rick Rieder, a chief investment officer at BlackRock who attended Wharton, just as Trump did, is below 10%.

It is still unknown as to when Powell will leave the Fed. However, the prediction rules state that if Warsh or anyone else is the first person to be formally nominated prior to Trump leaving office on Jan. 20, 2029, then the market will resolve to Yes. The Library of Congress will verify the outcome.

To jump into the action on this market, the Kalshi promo code provides new users with a $10 Sign Up Bonus after they complete $100 in trades.

Was This Real or Another Trump Riff to Ignore?

Analyzing Trump is tricky. Even those who know him and have worked with him for decades can only speculate on what he will actually do when the time comes to make a decision. Just because he saw Hassett in the audience and blurted a stream of consciousness comment does not mean it’s set in stone that Hassett is not getting the nod or that Warsh will jump to the head of the line.

It’s also possible that Trump does the unexpected and names someone who is far down the list or isn’t even listed at all.

For now, it’s probably better to lean toward Warsh while keeping Hassett in mind as the next Fed Chair.

The post Prediction Markets Show Warsh with Massive Lead to be Next Fed Chair appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Protests have erupted in Minnesota after an ICE agent shot and killed a woman during an altercation while she was in her vehicle
• President Trump warned of invoking the Insurrection Act if attacks on ICE agents continue
• Prediction markets are weighing whether the president will follow through on his threat and invoke the Insurrection Act

Protests in Minnesota have escalated after a second shooting involving ICE took place when an agent shot an alleged illegal immigrant accused of resisting arrest and assaulting the officer. While President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in the past, it has not been done by any U.S. president since President George H.W. Bush did so to quell the Los Angeles riots after the Rodney King verdict in 1992. Bush did so at the request of California Gov. Pete Wilson.

The Insurrection Act of 1907 gives the president wide latitude to act and put a stop to civil disorder, armed rebellions against the federal government, or an insurrection. Under this law, the National Guard and the U.S. Armed Forces can be deployed to end the perceived threat.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic nominee for Vice President and frequent Trump antagonist and target for ridicule, has called on the president to turn down the rhetoric while asking people in his state to protest peacefully.

Trump Not Shy on Threatening to Send in Troops

Trump has frequently mused about using the military and National Guard to address protests going back to his first term. Regarding immigration, ICE operations, and citizens interfering with attempts to arrest illegal immigrants, he has made this threat in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Portland. He has yet to follow through on it.

But judging by his actions in Venezuela and that the ICE raids have been initiated in the first place, it’s clear that Trump doesn’t make idle threats without keeping the option of following through on the table.

Prediction markets currently think it is more probable than not that the president will invoke the act before March 2026. The chances grow higher for it to happen before the Trump presidency ends.

The markets are not limited to the Insurrection Act being invoked over the ongoing protests in Minnesota, but cover the remainder of Trump’s term set to end on Jan. 20, 2029.

Current Market Hedging on Insurrection Act in the Near Future

Although there are ongoing and intensifying protests in Minnesota, the current prediction market for Trump invoking the Insurrection Act before March 2026 is over 50% that he will.

It’s certainly possible that the power of Trump’s threats will be deemed sufficient to calm things down. This is especially true given recent events when he repeatedly warned Venezuela that there would be consequences if it did not come to heel on its alleged drug trafficking boats. The President then moved forward authorizing a military operation to capture and arrest its president, Nicolás Maduro. The world is currently navigating Trump’s demand that the U.S. take over Greenland as well as the potential for strikes in Iran if, ironically, their government does not stop shooting and executing protesters.

As for the long term prospects of Trump invoking the act, it’s over 60% before 2027, and even higher before he leaves office in 2029.

ICE is showing no signs of reducing its aggressiveness and is sticking to the administration’s mandate of pursuing and capturing illegal immigrants. Many protestors are categorized by the president as so-called “professional” protestors who are agitating for a grander agenda of destabilization. With that, the chance of the Insurrection Act being exercised rises incrementally with each passing day.

For those who want to take a position on this market, the Kalshi promo code offers new users a $10 Sign Up Bonus after they have completed $100 in trades.

Will Trump Invoke the Insurrection Act?

The protests have shown no sign of slowing despite Trump’s threat and Walz’s request for calm. Adding in that ICE is continuing its national operations unabated and the belligerence on both sides is getting worse, it’s only a matter of time before Trump says enough’s enough and he does invoke the act.

If the protests go beyond the weekend and/or there is another violent incident, expect Trump to invoke the act not just to put a stop to the current hostilities, but to send a message to others across the nation what will happen if they protest in a similar manner as is currently ongoing in Minnesota.

The post See Odds for Trump to Invoke Insurrection Act Amidst Minnesota Protests appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Former U.S. President Bill Clinton and his wife former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton are facing contempt of Congress charges for failing to appear after being subpoenaed to testify in the Jeffrey Epstein investigation
• The Republican-led House Oversight Committee has been looking into Epstein’s crimes and his personal ties
• Prediction markets are speculating on whose name will appear in the Epstein files when they are released

House Republicans are stepping up their pursuit of information regarding people who were connected to the deceased convicted sex offender and disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. The House Oversight Committee had subpoenaed the Clintons. There is photographic evidence of former President Clinton with Epstein.

The Clintons are not the only prominent names in this regard. Others, President Donald J. Trump among them, also socialized with Epstein. However, the former president (Clinton) and his wife, the former Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, essentially lawyered up, refusing the testify before the committee.

The House GOP is planning to hold Bill Clinton in contempt for his failure to appear. Expect the same treatment for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Even Democrats like Rep. Ro Khanna of California stated in the past that Clinton should appear. House members on both sides of the aisle want answers about Epstein after the first cache of files were released in December. Still, House Democrats did not show for the planned Clinton appearance.

If Clinton were convicted of contempt of Congress, he could face up to a year in prison and a fine of up to $100,000.

Prediction Markets List Potential Names Who Might Appear in the Epstein Files

A minuscule percentage of the Epstein files have been released so far. The ones that have been released are heavily redacted. They are also said to be inherently disorganized. It is believed that more than a million files have yet to be released with other information potentially squirreled away among Epstein’s effects. There is hope that a vast number of files will be released later this year, but given the delays and roadblocks, it is wise to err on the side of caution.

On the prediction markets for the Epstein files, names listed are a who’s who of politicians, actors, business titans, royals, and moguls. As the calls to release the files intensify and it gets closer to them actually (really, finally, at last) being released, the markets will garner even furter attention.

Leading the way in the current market to be name in the files is President Trump. Next is Prince Andrew, then the Clintons are next at 80% for Bill and 79% for Hillary respectively. Bill Gates is tied with Hillary at 79%. Then it lowers to 69% each for Woody Allen and the late Michael Jackson.

When making a pick, the name must be mentioned in any context by the federal government in relation to Epstein before Jan. 1, 2027 for the market to resolve to Yes. The sourcing must be from documents, hierarchical order, and credentialed media entities like The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Axios, CNN, CBS, Semafor, and others.

Given the delays, there is time to consider options to weigh in and use the Kalshi promo code. New users, after completing $100 in trades, can claim a $10 Sign Up Bonus.

When Might the Files Be Released and What Names Will Appear?

While the salaciousness of the story and outright revulsion at Epstein’s thus-far known activities create a groundswell of attention and calls for justice, the names listed on the prediction markets do not necessarily imply wrongdoing.

Of course, photos of Prince Andrew and Epstein have circulated across the globe. He was known to have connections with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. The same is true for former President Clinton and current President Trump. Their names being included in the files should not be in question.

For others, Epstein’s tentacles extended everywhere in every industry from finance to entertainment to politics to sports. Just as celebrities got out in front of the Sean “Diddy” Combs investigation by outright saying, “I’ve been to Diddy parties” while adding the caveat that they never took part in the after-after party debauchery, there were few places for the tabloid media and prosecutors to go if there was no evidence of wrongdoing or a public relations disaster.

In truth, anyone who was anyone was invited to the aforementioned parties. It was a place to network, if nothing else, and probably a sense of “I made it” to be allowed into the social sphere one of the most recognizable people in entertainment and business on the planet.

It’s certainly possible that many of the people named in the Epstein files had nothing to do with any sexual deviance or illegality. Plausible deniability is a viable defense except when someone acts as arrogantly and clumsily as Prince Andrew did during damage control. The results are there for all to see with him being all but cast out by the British Royal Family and shrinking into a radioactive and despised pariah.

As for the question as to when the Epstein files will be released…who knows?

Considering the number of files that need to be examined and even those that have not yet been found, plus the number of people in whose interest it is for them to stay hidden or for there to be delays, expecting them to be released in full before the end of the year is probably premature, if not outright delusional.

The post Clintons Refuse to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry: Trade on Odds of Who Will Appear in Epstein Files appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Iran is again enduring widespread protests with violent crackdowns killing more that 500 and nearly 11,000 arrested
• U.S. President Donald J. Trump has already warned Iran against a repeat of the carnage during the last round of protests in 2022-23
• Prediction markets are speculating on whether a new nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran can be completed before the end of 2026

Nationwide protests continue in Iran as all 31 of the country’s provinces experience unrest amidst an ongoing communications shutdown. It has been reported that hundreds of protestors have already been killed by Iran security forces, with thousands more being arrested. US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene and stated that leaders of Iran want to negotiate with the US.

Iran is Dealing With Intense Protests, Pressure from the US

Iran is responding forcefully to the most recent protests engulfing the country. Unlike the protests from three years ago when a young woman was detained for not wearing her hijab properly and died in police custody after alleged beatings, the current protests stem not from the country’s draconian laws as to how people can behave in public, but due to economic issues and exploding inflation.

The results, however, are the same with a harsh, multilevel response in which security forces are said to be shooting protestors, government initiated internet blackouts, phones being shut off, and mobile data unavailable.

In the aftermath of the U.S. operation in Venezuela and subsequent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump seems emboldened in aggressive foreign policy by setting red lines for Iran and warning of force. At the same time, the increasingly desperate leadership in Tehran has stated that it is ready for war, but is also willing to negotiate. The countries do not have diplomatic ties, but Iran’s Foreign Minister has been in communication with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

On Monday afternoon, Trump ordered 25% tariffs to be slapped on any country doing business with Iran.

Trump Leaves Room to Negotiate, Nuclear Options on the Table

As usual, Trump prefers to negotiate a deal than to go to the extreme and follow through on his hardline rhetoric. Of course, he might go with his extreme rhetoric first, then negotiate. In fact, no one can reasonably predict what he might do.

He has shied away from putting U.S. boots on the ground, but the President said he will hit “them very, very hard where it hurts.”

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and global fears surrounding them are a lingering concern. In his first term, Trump pulled out of the nuclear agreement between the countries. Now, with the Islamic Republic under siege by a restless population, the President said Iran proposed that the two countries return to the negotiating table.

Prediction markets are speculating the odds of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal being completed this year. Since heftier challenges are currently at the forefront for Iran, this is a backstory. But Trump could use that to his advantage to get a deal he deems favorable to the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle East allies and business partners.

Odds for New US-Iran Nuclear Deal This Year

Odds for a nuclear deal before the end of 2026 are unlikely based on the current market indications, so the perception is that a deal will not be struck.

The parameters are that if the U.S. agrees to, signs, or accepts a deal between the countries before Jan. 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. The source reporting the potential nuclear deal must be a reputable news organization, i.e. the New York Times, Reuters, Politico, CNN, ABC, CBS, The Washington Post, Fox News, and the like.

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Will the US Make a Nuclear Agreement with Iran?

The Trump preference as well as the preference of the more hawkish foreign policy people in the Republican Party (and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) would be to strike while the Islamic Republic of Iran is reeling from its population’s discontent and decapitate the regime once and for all.

Already Trump has gone further than past U.S. administrations in confronting Iran, most notably with a drone strike in January 2020 killing Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. Last June, Israel killed several leaders from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a number of nuclear scientists.

Aging Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei reportedly has a dwindling inner circle and it’s a question as to how much remaining sway he has. If the regime sees that it is facing the realistic prospect of a U.S. attack, likely carried out largely by Israel with Trump’s imprimatur, then it would be more willing to try and save itself or run out the clock on Trump’s presidency with a nuclear deal more favorable to Western powers than the last one.

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