• 9-1 last three weeks…what could possibly go wrong?
• Ty Gibbs is flying under the radar…again.
• Read below for expert NASCAR Wurth 400 predictions and updated odds for Texas.

If you’ve read anything I’ve written over the last five or six years, you already know—I fancy myself a bowler.

50+ 300 games. State titles. A respectable résumé…followed by a not-so-respectable detour when I had to get my arm rebuilt a few years back. I’ve still had 300s since returning, but the opportunities have been a little more infrequent. Fewer swings at it. More near-misses. 299s. 279s. If you know, you know.

The theoretical lid was on.

Until Wednesday night.
And then Thursday night.

Back-to-back nights with 300s. Just like that, the lid’s off.

Which brings us to Kyle Larson.

The speed has been there. The execution has been there. The finishing touch? Not so much. Until Saturday, when he went out and won the O’Reilly Auto Parts race.

And if there’s one thing better than winning once, it’s winning again the next day.

Not to mention, those 300s? Yeah…they came in Kyle Larson jerseys. Not saying. Just saying.

We’re 9-1 on these Cup predictions articles over the last three weeks, so make sure you’re tailing so that you can be extra mad when variance inevitably shows up.

Wurth 400 Start Time

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1 for the Wurth 400, where betting value has emerged on a handful of drivers highlighted below.

Wurth 400 Updated Odds

Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook as of May 2 at 11:01 p.m. ET. Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick are co-favorites at +500, implying a win probability of 16.67%. Shop the best sportsbook promos for the top Wurth 400 odds.

Expert NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions

Kyle Larson over Denny Hamlin / Tyler Reddick / Christopher Bell (+275, BetRivers)

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We’ve got this lined closer to +167, which implies about a 37% win probability.

At +275, the market is pricing this closer to 27%.

That’s a real edge. Yes, we’re going to lose this bet more often than we win it—but getting paid like it hits 27% of the time on something that should hit 37% is exactly how you stack units over time.

Kyle Larson over Chase Elliott (-120, BetRivers)

We’re showing nearly a three-position edge here, driven by Larson’s model score and his dominance on 1.5-mile tracks.

In comparable track data since the start of the 2025 season:

• Larson ranks 1st in fast laps (22.4)
• 2nd in laps led (55.2)
• 2nd in laps inside the top 15

Elliott, meanwhile:

• 10th in fast laps (8.0)
• 11th in laps led (6.8)
• 8th in top-15 laps

They’ll roll off 11th (Larson) and 14th (Elliott), so there’s no major track position hurdle. Add in Larson’s extra track time this weekend on a circuit that’s already shown some teeth, and this sets up well.

Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish (-118, BetRivers)
Ty Gibbs over Carson Hocevar (-114, BetRivers)

Gibbs is going to fly under the radar in the copy-and-paste lap averages. Fortunately, the grizzled veterans inside SpeedwaySteve2 HQ know how to filter out the noise.

The kid was hauling.

Yes, Hocevar won Talladega.
Yes, he picked up his first Cup win.
Yes, he won the Truck race Friday night.
Yes, he’s on the pole Sunday.

We’ve acknowledged it. We’ve celebrated it. We’re moving on.

Our projections have Gibbs finishing 6.3, nearly six spots ahead of Hocevar. The pit crew has been operating at a much higher level this season, and the overall speed profile backs it up.

We’ll take the matchup—and while we’re at it, we’ll cash a top-10 ticket too.

Because two is always better than one.

(Probably.)

The post Expert NASCAR Wurth 400 Predictions and Updated Odds for Texas appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Green flag now at 1:00 p.m. ET due to weather. Tune in on Apple TV
• Both front-row starters have struggled off the line, which could open the door immediately for drivers just behind them
• There’s at least one plus-money spot where the numbers and the odds don’t quite line up

It’s been a minute since we’ve had Formula 1 cars on track, and Miami is wasting no time throwing variables at us.

Impending storms have already pushed the start time up three hours to 1 p.m. ET, which adds another layer of uncertainty to a race that didn’t need any help in that department.

We touched on it in the DFS piece, but it’s worth repeating. Safety car odds are sitting near “basically inevitable,” both front-row starters have had issues off the line, and now we’re throwing weather into the mix.

In other words, this race has multiple ways to go sideways. The grid only adds to that.

Kimi Antonelli captured pole, with Max Verstappen alongside on the front row. Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris make up the second row, while George Russell and Lewis Hamilton roll off fifth and sixth.

It’s a slightly jumbled grid, which should lead to some interesting action early, especially if the start doesn’t go clean.

We’re not trying to predict all of it…Just a couple.

Miami Grand Prix Odds

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5/3 at 9:10 a.m. ET. Kimi Antonelli is the favorite at +140, implying a 41.67% win probability, while Max Verstappen is +180, implying 35.71%.

Miami Grand Prix Best Bets

Max Verstappen over Lando Norris (-134, BetRivers)

Verstappen rolls off the front row for the first time this season in what looks like a significantly improved Red Bull. Norris grabbed the sprint win from pole earlier in the weekend, but will start fourth for Sunday’s race.

We have Verstappen projected at 2.67, compared to Norris at 4.58.

That’s nearly a two-position gap, which is more than enough to justify this price. The only real concern is the start, where Verstappen has had his issues, but if he gets through clean, this sets up well.

Alex Albon over Esteban Ocon (+120, DraftKings)

This one is simpler.

Albon starts 15th. Ocon starts 14th. We’ve got them projected at 14.58 and 14.83, respectively.

It’s a negligible difference on paper, but the wrong driver is favored. We’ll take the plus money and let it play out.

The post F1 Picks & Odds: Miami Grand Prix Predictions & Best Bets 2026 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway
• Five of our six drivers start 25th or deeper, leaning into place differential over dominator points on a track that doesn’t reward clean runs up front
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Wurth 400

If you’ve been following along with the last few NASCAR DFS articles, you probably thought the refrigerator saga had finally come to an end.

It has not.

The delivery guys showed up, hauled the old, dysfunctional cold box out of my house, and I haven’t seen it since. No ceremony. No goodbye. Just gone. In its place? A brand-new model. Premium ice maker. Shiny stainless steel. The works.

They install it, call me over like they’re unveiling a piece of modern art, and start walking me through all the features.

And then, almost as an afterthought, they casually mention it was “lightly damaged” during unloading.

Lightly damaged.

Which must mean it was attacked with a hatchet, because there’s now a four-inch slice carved into what was a flawless door roughly 20 minutes earlier.

The solution?

“Yeah, you can probably just cover it with a magnet.”

Cover it with a magnet he says.

So naturally, I interpreted that as: call customer care and schedule another delivery for Wednesday. Pray for me.

What does this have to do with DFS? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. But at this point, this is either content continuity or a cry for help. Possibly both. Especially now that my refrigerator apparently has built-in ventilation on the front panel.

Anyway…here’s the lineup.

Wurth 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Wurth 400 NASCAR DFS picks at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Texas.

Wurth 400 DFS Strategy: All Ceiling, No Floor

This is a sneaky stack-the-back kind of race.

Texas isn’t going to give us clean, predictable dominator runs. The relatively low tire wear keeps the field bunched up, which means restarts turn into three- and four-wide chaos in a hurry. Add in a history of cautions and strategy swings, and trying to predict lap leaders becomes a good way to light your entry fee on fire.

So we’re not doing that.

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NASCAR DFS Picks: Stacking the Back at Texas

Instead, this build leans heavily on finishing position and place differential. We’re targeting drivers starting deeper in the field with paths forward, while avoiding front-running chalk that could easily find a bump, a bad restart, or a wall and ruin your day.

Track temps are also expected to be about 10 degrees hotter than practice, which should slick things up and only add to the unpredictability.

In other words: this is not a floor lineup.

This is all ceiling.

And with DraftKings rolling out another $20 entry with $100,000 to first, ceiling is exactly what we’re chasing.

Good luck. I’ll be busy scheduling my second refrigerator delivery in 72 hours like that’s a normal thing people do.

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Want to bet the Wurth 400 outright? Browse the top sportsbooks for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Wurth 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Kimi Antonelli grabbed pole for the Miami Grand Prix with Max Verstappen joining him on the front row
• Both front-row starters have had issues off the line this season, creating high variance and DFS opportunity
• Below, see our F1 DFS picks, lineup, and strategy for the Miami Grand Prix

It’s been a minute since we’ve had Formula 1 cars on track.

Global…let’s call them fluctuations…had things feeling a little uncertain there for a bit. And while I’m not here to break down international relations, I am here to tell you we’ve got cars back on track, and thankfully not dodging anything other than Turn 1 divebombs.

There have been some regulation tweaks since the last time we saw these cars, but given the current pay structure, we’re going to keep this part brief. The short version is less yo-yo passing, a little less super-clipping, and a bit more predictability.

My wallet appreciates that.

Though I might be in the minority who was enjoying the early-season chaos.

Miami gave us a sprint weekend, which, selfishly, means normal viewing hours. No 2 a.m. alarms. No stumbling around the house like a confused raccoon trying to find the TV remote. SpeedwayBrandi was especially thankful.

As for the on-track product, Kimi Antonelli bounced back in a big way, grabbing pole for Sunday after a messy sprint that included a five-second penalty and a drop to sixth. The sprint itself was a bit of a curveball, with McLaren going 1-2 and Charles Leclerc sneaking onto the podium. No Mercedes up there, though George Russell did manage to bring it home fourth.

Sunday is a different story.

Max Verstappen joins Antonelli on the front row, with Leclerc and Lando Norris right behind. And here is where it gets interesting. Both Antonelli and Verstappen have had their share of issues off the line. If that trend continues, things could get messy in a hurry.

So how do we build an F1 DFS lineup for this?

Miami Grand Prix Expert DFS Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Miami Grand Prix F1 DFS lineup at the best daily fantasy sports sites before lights out.

Miami Grand Prix DFS Strategy

We’re projecting zero dupes here, outside of any of you beautiful readers. Always nice to have a unique path in a top-heavy payout structure.

The hope is that the month off gave Antonelli and Verstappen’s teams a chance to sort out the starting gremlins. Or maybe Charles Leclerc just launches into Turn 1 with one of those patented Ferrari starts and flips everything immediately.

Either way, we’re embracing the chaos.

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F1 DFS Picks: Why This Lineup Works

The safety car is priced around -400, which tells you everything you need to know about how this race could unfold. Add in the start time being moved up to 1 p.m. ET due to impending weather, and now we’ve got multiple variables that could turn this thing on its head.

So we lean into it.

Antonelli is our top-ranked driver this weekend, with Verstappen right behind him. If things go clean up front, this pairing gives us access to maximum scoring potential without overthinking it.

The constructor spot is where things get a little tricky. There’s a chance Isack Hadjar starts 22nd instead of 8th due to a qualifying issue. If that holds, we’re effectively punting the double top-10 bonus and hoping to survive.

If not?

That’s found money.

And in a race like this, we’ll take all the help we can get.

Looking to bet the Miami Grand Prix outright? Check out the best online sportsbook for the latest F1 odds and futures.

The post F1 DFS Picks, Lineup & Strategy for Miami Grand Prix appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Fade Angle: Betting numbers, not reputation.
• Model Backing: Cindric and Reddick both light up the sheet.
• Read below for NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 predictions, odds and start time at Talladega.

We’re writing this one from a hotel room somewhere past Lancaster, where the WiFi is shared, the desk chair is actively working against us, and the roommate is putting up elite snoring numbers. Basic cable, questionable coffee, and on the drive in we had to dodge a horse-drawn carriage like we accidentally time-traveled.

It’s a different pace out here. Slower. Simpler.

And earlier today, we took the scratch team lead at the tournament.

Not because of my elite talent.

Let’s be clear about that upfront. I was absolutely the weak link in this operation. The guy you’re hoping can just keep it on the lane and not light the whole thing on fire. But sometimes, that’s enough. Sometimes the job isn’t to carry the squad…it’s to recognize who can, hitch your wagon to them, and stay out of the way while they go to work.

Which, as it turns out, is a pretty solid blueprint for the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

This is superspeedway racing. You don’t just show up with the fastest car and drive away from the field. You survive by working together. Drafting. Linking up with teammates. Finding a line, pushing it forward, and making sure you’re not the one left hanging when it’s time to pit and get back up to speed.

It’s not about being the best driver in the best wagon out there.

It’s about knowing where you fit…and making that work.

Jack Link’s 500 Start Time

Green flag drops Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 12:59 p.m. ET on April 26. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are co-favorites at +1000, implying a win probability of 9.1% each. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top Talladega odds.

NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Predictions

• Tyler Reddick over Ryan Blaney (-115, DraftKings)
• Austin Cindric over Ryan Blaney (+105, bet365)

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Let’s do something uncomfortable.

Let’s fade Ryan Blaney.

Yes, on a drafting track. Yes, at Talladega. Yes, we understand what we’re signing up for. But when we actually dig into the 2025 and 2026 superspeedway data, his profile does not exactly justify the price tag.

Blaney is sitting on an 18.9 average finish in that sample, which ranks 15th. He is only 10th in time spent inside the top 15 at 49.9 percent of laps, and his 17.9 average running position also ranks 10th. That is fine. Respectable. But we are not here to bet respectable when the market keeps treating him like a weekly hammer.

On the other side, Tyler Reddick has not put a foot wrong in 2026, ripping off five wins in the first nine races. That is a better winning percentage than every team in the AL West. He also owns the best average finish on superspeedways at 8.9, the second-most time inside the top 15 at 59.6 percent of laps, and the second-best average running position at 14.0.

And let’s not pretend the car is not part of this. I don’t know what they’ve got under the hood, but it’s running on a fuel mixture somewhere between jet fuel and flubber. The thing has to be cheated up. At this point, we would rather have any type of ticket on Reddick than be standing on the tracks when the tiny ginger comes flying through.

We will double down on the angle with Austin Cindric at plus money. If we are fading Blaney, we might as well bring a teammate along for the ride. Cindric is a legitimate force on superspeedways. He leads laps, hangs in the front pack, and spends about the same amount of time inside the top 15 as Blaney.

More importantly, the model loves him this weekend. Who are we to turn our backs on the algorithm that brought us to the dance…or at least the model that keeps the lights on in SpeedwaySteve2 HQ?

Uncomfortable. Yes.

Profitable. That is the idea.

The post NASCAR Jack Link’s 500 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Talladega (Sunday, Apr. 26) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The Cup Series heads to Talladega for the Jack Link’s 500, where DraftKings has $100,000 to first on a $20 entry
• We’re leaving $7,300 in salary on the table on purpose, loading the back half of the grid to chase position differential and superspeedway fastest laps
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Jack Link’s 500

There are two types of people in this world: those shipping six-figure winning DFS scores, and those explaining to their credit card company why the new refrigerator suddenly has “premium ice.”

We, proudly and without hesitation, are currently in the second group.

If you recall, our previous refrigerator chose violence last Saturday night. No warning. No slow decline. Just tapped out like it had somewhere better to be, leaving us standing there holding a carton of milk and a rapidly expiring sense of optimism. It was less “appliance failure” and more “sudden, unannounced retirement.”

Last week didn’t bring home the $100,000 DraftKings payday. What it did bring was a brand-new refrigerator, complete with delivery, expert install, and the kind of quiet confidence that only comes from knowing you absolutely should not be trusted to handle it yourself. One brief trip into the crawlspace was all the evidence SpeedwayBrandi needed. We’re not appliance installation guys. Not now, not ever.

But here’s the angle…we bought ourselves time.

A full billing cycle. Thirty days before that credit card statement shows up like it’s got something to prove. And sitting right in that window is another $20 DraftKings contest with a cool $100,000 to first. No big deal. Just a chance to turn “questionable financial decision” into “forward-thinking investment strategy.”

Of course, the ice maker wasn’t optional. Not in this household. SpeedwayBrandi is running a full-scale hydration operation with a fleet of brightly colored Stanley thermoses that demand a steady supply. This isn’t a kitchen anymore. It’s a logistics hub.

So yeah, it would be great if we could win something soon.

Good thing we’re heading to the one place where anything can happen, everything usually does, and the leaderboard can flip faster than your confidence level on lap 187.

Talladega.

Green flag at 3:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Another $20 entry. Another $100,000 dangling at the top.

Let’s try to pay off a refrigerator.

Jack Link’s 500 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Jack Link’s 500 NASCAR DFS picks at the top DFS sites before the green flag drops at Talladega.

Jack Link’s 500 DFS Strategy: Why We’re Leaving $7,300 on the Table

Maybe you’re not a math guy with abacuses lining the walls like some kind of Renaissance risk manager. That’s fine. We’ll keep it simple.

This lineup is unique, baybay.

We’re sitting at $42,700 total salary. That’s $7,300 just…hanging out. Untouched. Unbothered. We’re not being generous. We’re being dangerous. And no, it’s not because we’re trying to expense the new icebox through DraftKings accounting loopholes.

We’re living in the back half of this starting grid. On purpose. Because at a place like Talladega, starting position is more of a suggestion than a rule. What actually matters is position differential, and on superspeedways, it’s king. Dominator points get spread out across the field, and fastest laps come from the back of the draft thanks to the accordion effect and a little thing we’ll just call…science.

Case in point: Cody Ware. Yes, that Cody Ware. Quietly sitting third in our superspeedway fastest laps data, averaging 5.8 per race. File that away for your next trivia night or your next argument with someone who still thinks DFS is just “pick the best drivers.”

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NASCAR DFS Picks: The Core and the Chaos

Ownership matters too. We project Joey Logano and Kyle Busch to be the stone-cold highest-owned drivers on the slate. And while eating chalk is part of the game, pairing both is a great way to end up sharing first place with a few thousand of your closest friends. Busch has also been operating somewhere between “volatile” and “unpredictable” lately, so we’ll take our chances with Logano and the far more stable equipment.

Logano and Michael McDowell are both superspeedway winners. In our model, they rank second and third in projected finish. Todd Gilliland is a problem on these big tracks and slots in as our sixth-ranked driver. Ryan Preece checks in fourth in projected finish. These aren’t just names we pulled out of a hat. These are guys who show up in both the model and the betting card, which is exactly the kind of alignment we’re looking for when we’re trying to turn appliance debt into financial freedom.

Then there’s the salary relief crew.

Cody Ware is more than just a punt. He’s a legitimate value with actual upside in this format. He’s led laps here, he’s posted career-best finishes, and apparently, he’s been hoarding fastest laps like they’re limited-edition Stanley drops.

And Connor Zilisch…look, your guess is as good as ours. The kid is talented. The equipment…well…let’s just say it’s not exactly top tier. But at Talladega, that gap shrinks. Unpredictability levels the playing field, and if the field forgets about him because of early-season scars, that’s how you end up scooping value while everyone else is chasing ghosts.

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Final Word on Jack Link’s 500 DFS

That’s the build.

Uncomfortable. Unconventional. Probably a little irresponsible.

Just how we like it.

Want to bet the Jack Link’s 500 outright? Browse the top sportsbooks for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Jack Link’s 500 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Last Week: We went 4-1. Not perfect, but we’re not apologizing either
• Double Fade: Ross Chastain pops up twice for a reason
• Green Flag: 2:00 PM ET on FOX from Kansas Speedway

The AdventHealth 400 goes green at 2:00 PM ET on FOX from Kansas Speedway, and this one sets up like a race where the numbers are actually telling a pretty clear story.

Kansas has quietly turned into one of the better intermediates on the schedule. Multiple grooves, legitimate tire falloff, and long runs that separate the field in a hurry. You either have speed here, or you spend the afternoon watching someone else cash tickets.

This week, we’re not trying to get cute.

We’re backing speed where it shows up, and fading it where it doesn’t.

Because sometimes…it really is that simple.

NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 9:54 AM ET on April 19. Tyler Reddick is the favorite at +370, implying a 21.3% win probability.

NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Predictions

Ty Gibbs over Ryan Blaney (-114, BetRivers)

The Toyotas locked out the top three starting spots, so we’ll start there and keep it simple.

Ty Gibbs rolls off third, coming off his first career Cup Series win, and more importantly, the speed hasn’t gone anywhere. If anything, it looks like it’s building.

Our model was out on Ryan Blaney before the weekend even started, and nothing from practice or qualifying gave us a reason to change course. He’ll start ninth, while Gibbs gets the benefit of mostly clean air and early track position.

That gap matters.

We’re projecting Gibbs to finish roughly 4.15 to 4.9 positions ahead, and when you layer in the underlying metrics, it’s not hard to see why. On comparable tracks since 2025, Gibbs has the edge in fastest laps, average running position, and time spent inside the top-15.

Blaney has been excellent on short tracks and superspeedways, but these mile-and-a-half setups haven’t been nearly as kind. He’s been more steady than dominant, and at this price, that’s not what we’re looking for.

Gibbs starts better. He practiced better. And the numbers say he should finish better.

Sometimes it really is that simple.

Brad Keselowski over Ross Chastain (-110, DraftKings)
Austin Cindric over Ross Chastain (-114, BetRivers)

If this were the old IROC Series and everyone was driving identical tubs, we’d probably be on the other side of these matchups.

But it’s not.

And we’re not.

We hate to do it, but we’re fading the Melon Man.

There’s just something off with the Trackhouse equipment right now. Rookie Connor Zilisch won 10 races last year in the Xfinity Series, then jumped into one of these cars and sits 33rd in points. And you don’t have to scroll much further to find Chastain himself, currently 21st in points with just one top-10 finish on the season.

It’s no longer noise. It’s a real problem.

We’ve got Chastain’s range of outcomes between 19.25 and 21.7. Meanwhile, Keselowski checks in around 15.9, and Cindric lands between 16.6 and 17.1.

We could call this the “double model match agreement triple diamond mob steam lock of the century.”

We won’t.

But both models do agree, and they’re actionable edges.

Because sometimes…it really is that simple.

Like most weeks, there are free squares out there if you know where to look. Unfortunately, sportsbooks didn’t hang a single Kyle Busch matchup, so we had to dig a little deeper.

And we landed on Ross.

The pre-flop model already leaned toward Cindric in this matchup, and nothing we’ve seen since has changed that. Both drivers posted similar practice scores and both qualified poorly, with Chastain rolling off 31st and Cindric 34th.

Brad Keselowski didn’t light the world on fire in practice or qualifying either, but he starts 21st, ten spots ahead of Chastain before the green flag even drops. And it’s a lot easier to trust the speed when it shows up across the garage. Chris Buescher rolls off seventh and Ryan Preece starts 12th, so there’s strength in numbers in that camp this weekend.

We’ll take that head start and the better projections every time.

Disclaimer:
The use of “we” throughout this article refers to the collective analysis and perspective of the author, their collaborators, and the broader SpeedwaySteve2 HQ community. It does not represent the views of the publication or its parent company.

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The post NASCAR AdventHealth 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Kansas (Apr. 19) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway
• Three Toyotas starting first, second, and third headline an expert lineup built around dominator points and clean air
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the AdventHealth 400

If you’ve been doing this long enough, breaking down races, building models, convincing yourself you’ve found an edge, you start to recognize the rhythm of a good day before the green flag even drops.

Today had that rhythm.

Not because of anything happening at Kansas Speedway just yet, but because earlier in the day, we had a bowling match. It’s not the “show up and hope you’re loose by the third game” kind either. We’re talking about a travel team…structured, competitive. The kind where you need to execute.

And we did. A 36-4 win that was never really in doubt. The reads were clean, shots were repeatable, and for a few hours everything felt under control.

And then I get home.

Speedway Brandi sends me into the crawl space like I’m being deployed on a mission I have no business accepting, and somewhere between the pipes and the regret, it becomes clear that the refrigerator is on its last legs. This is not a slump. This is a retirement tour.

So naturally, a few hours later, I find myself at a friend’s house who has more money than I have functioning appliances. Great guy, incredible host, delicious cheese bread, nothing but respect. But when the ice maker produces four perfectly round ice spheres every 35 minutes specifically for Old Fashioneds, we’re operating in different tax brackets.

I had two. It felt financially irresponsible not to.

Meanwhile, I look like an unmade bed standing in his kitchen.

He’s lighting cherry wood on fire for a smoky finish while I’m mentally pricing out refrigerators and wondering how quickly my life turned into a math problem.

So yeah, we’re going to need to win this week.

Thankfully, the Cup Series heads to Kansas, where multiple grooves and real tire falloff give us a race that actually rewards drivers who understand pace instead of just mashing the throttle and hoping it sticks.

There’s $100,000 to first on DraftKings.

And somewhere out there, there’s a refrigerator with my name on it.

AdventHealth 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Get started on your AdventHealth 400 NASCAR DFS picks at the best DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops at Kansas.

AdventHealth 400 DFS Strategy

The AdventHealth 400 sets up pretty clean this week, and sometimes the best move is to not overthink it.

The Toyotas look like the class of the field. Instead of trying to galaxy-brain which one leads what portion of the race, we’re just taking the three fastest ones…who also happen to be starting first, second, and third.

Lead the laps, fellas. Enjoy the clean air. Click off fastest laps. Keep it simple.

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NASCAR DFS Picks: Position Differential Targets

For position differential, John Hunter Nemechek feels like one of the better values on the board. He’s the Toyota starting deepest in the field, rolling off 32nd. We’ve got him projected around 21.0, which puts double-digit position differential squarely in play with room for more if things break right.

We went to the window with Alex Bowman last week, coming off the vertigo return and strong comparable track metrics…and he DNF’d faster than my refrigerator gave up on life. The narrative has already shifted from “good to see him back” to “he better figure it out,” which is fine. We’re not here to manage his career arc. He’s still in a Hendrick car, and we’ve got him landing in that 12th to 16th range. That’s more than enough to get the job done from P33.

Zane Smith is just a gamer. The qualifying effort wasn’t there, starting 25th, but the practice speed was solid enough to suggest forward movement. We’ve got him projected between 16.1 and 19.5, which gives us positive differential at a very workable price point.

This lineup is cold.

Hopefully cold enough to buy a new refrigerator.

Want to bet the AdventHealth 400 outright? Check out the best online sportsbook for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Advent Health 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• At the Top: Blaney and Larson at +350, which is great if you enjoy paying full price.
• Where We’re Living: Matchups, groups, and numbers that haven’t caught up to the data.
• Read below for NASCAR Food City 500 odds, picks and expert predictions for Sunday’s race.

We’ve got the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, and if you’re looking for clean air, predictable outcomes, and a nice relaxing betting environment…this is not the place.

This is a concrete half-mile where track position is everything, patience is optional, and 500 laps is more than enough time for something to go completely off the rails.

We’re leaning heavily on Bristol and Dover comps this week. Concrete, high banking, and tire wear that actually separates the field over a run. It’s one of the more reliable datasets we get all season, which usually means the edge is there if you’re willing to trust it.

Of course, NASCAR never makes it that simple.

Goodyear is rolling out a new tire compound to handle cooler temperatures and avoid a repeat of last year’s TireGate situation. In theory, that should reward long-run cars and punish anyone who abuses their equipment early.

In practice…we’re about to find out together.

Food City 500 Start Time

Green flag drops at 3:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

NASCAR Food City 500 Odds

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook as of 1:53 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 12. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are co-favorites at +350, implying a win probability of 22.2%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top Food City 500 odds.

Food City 500 Expert Predictions & Picks

Denny Hamlin over Christopher Bell (-125, BetRivers)

We’ve got Denny Hamlin projected at a 7.2 finish from P11, while Christopher Bell starts 14th with a 9.6 projection.

But the separation shows up in the real data from this track type.

• Hamlin
  • 35.0 fast laps
  • 61.5 laps led
  • 6.1 average running position
• Bell
  • 18.2 fast laps
  • 18.0 laps led
  • 9.3 ARP

Sure, Bell just won the Craftsman Truck race and the SpeedwaySteve2 faithful cashed tickets like it was Christmas morning. But we’ve got short memories around here.

We’ll take Dennis the Menace and keep it moving.

Ryan Blaney over Kyle Larson (-114, BetRivers)

Whew. Don’t tell my wife about this one.

Ryan Blaney is P1 with a bullet in the model after an absurd practice session and a pole-winning qualifying lap. Kyle Larson can hang early in a run, but projects to fade as tires wear.

Then there’s the pit road situation.

Larson lost pit stall selection after failing pre-race inspection twice. At Bristol, with one of the tightest pit roads on the schedule, that’s not exactly ideal.

We’ve got Larson finishing 2.2 spots behind Blaney.

That’s enough for us.

Group Plays

Let’s have some fun.

Play these at half your normal matchup stake. These are derivative markets with overlap, but they give us exposure to the same edges at better prices.

Chase Briscoe over Ty Gibbs / William Byron / Chase Elliott (+235, BetRivers)

Ty Gibbs is technically the top projection in this group…by one spot.

We’ve got Gibbs at a fair price of +153, while Chase Briscoe checks in at +203.

That gap is enough.

We’re not asking Briscoe to dominate. We just need him to beat three guys that the market might be overvaluing.

Ryan Blaney over Kyle Larson / Denny Hamlin / Christopher Bell (+150, BetRivers)

We’ve already walked through where all four of these drivers project to finish, and that’s really the foundation of this play.

From there, it’s just a pricing conversation.

Blaney comes out on top in this group 43% of the time, which lands his fair number closer to +132. The market is giving us +150.

It’s not a massive edge, but it’s clean, it’s consistent with everything we’ve already laid out, and it lets us press the same angle in a higher-paying format.

Tyler Reddick over Brad Keselowski / Chris Buescher / Carson Hocevar (+185, BetRivers)

This one isn’t subtle.

We’ve got Tyler Reddick projected at 11.7, with Carson Hocevar right behind at 12.85, and both Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski living in the high teens.

That gives Reddick a 43% win rate in this group, but the pricing hasn’t caught up at all.

Instead of hovering in the +130 range where it probably belongs, we’re getting +185. That’s not just value…it’s the kind of number that makes you double-check you didn’t misread it.

We’ll take the discount and not ask questions.

Final Thoughts

There’s no such thing as a perfect card at Bristol.

We’re not betting on certainty. We’re betting on being right enough before the race turns into a highlight reel of bent fenders and helmet throws.

That’s why the approach here is simple. We’re trusting our concrete track data. We’re backing drivers who show up in those Bristol and Dover comps. And we’re taking numbers where the market is just a little bit off, even if it doesn’t jump off the page at first glance.

Some of these will miss. That’s part of the deal.

But if the race plays out the way this track usually does, with long runs, tire falloff, and drivers having to actually manage something instead of just hanging on, this is the type of card that can quietly stack wins while everyone else is trying to figure out what just happened.

We don’t need perfection.

We just need to be on the right side of it when Bristol does what Bristol always does.

The post NASCAR Food City 500 Odds, Picks & Expert Predictions for Sunday’s Race appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
• Ryan Blaney starts from pole and headlines a lineup built around dominator points and back-of-the-grid place differential
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Food City 500

There’s a $20 entry contest with $100,000 to first on DraftKings for Bristol, and somehow this slate is competing with The Masters for attention.

Which means two things.

One, a large portion of the betting public is currently locked in on polite applause and leaderboard watching.

Two, there’s a very real chance this contest doesn’t fill while everyone is glued to Augusta. We call that an overlay in the biz.

That’s where we come in.

While the golf world is debating green speeds and back-nine pressure, we’ll be watching 37 cars rip around a half-mile concrete bowl where tempers don’t last long and neither do brake pads.

It’s loud, it’s chaotic, and it’s about as far from a gentleman’s sport as you can get.

But it does pay $100K.

Food City 500 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Food City 500 NASCAR DFS lineup at the top daily fantasy sports apps before the green flag drops at Bristol.

Food City 500 DFS Strategy: Driver Breakdown

Ryan Blaney ($10,700) – Starting 1st

Let’s not overthink this.

Blaney is on the pole and may not be caught until they’re unloading haulers in Kansas. His long-run practice data was borderline offensive. We ran it through the model, checked it again, then briefly considered whether the spreadsheet had developed sentience.

Even if NASCAR throws a late caution because they simply cannot help themselves, Blaney should have already vacuumed up so many laps led and fast laps that it won’t matter.

He’s your primary dominator. Full stop.

William Byron ($10,000) – Starting 34th

Ah yes, the “please don’t go a lap down immediately” play.

Byron starting 34th is the kind of DFS gift that usually comes with fine print. But this isn’t some back marker…this is a Hendrick rocket ship buried in traffic.

Yes, there’s risk at Bristol. If he gets trapped early, it just might be curtains. But if he survives the opening chaos, the position-differential ceiling is massive, and that’s how you break a slate.

We’re betting on talent over traffic. Pray accordingly.

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Ryan Preece ($7,500) – Starting 17th

Short track guy. Grinder. Professional nuisance.

Preece tends to show up at places where tire wear and driver input actually matter. Bristol isn’t exactly his bread-and-butter flat track, but the skillset translates.

He’s your mid-range stability play who won’t kill you…which, at Bristol, is a glowing endorsement.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) – Starting 12th

Bubba Wallace experience:

Step 1: Show legitimate speed.
Step 2: Make you believe.
Step 3: Do something that makes you question how we ended up here.

That said, the 23XI cars have real speed this year. Wallace had a top-10 practice session, and both models have him flirting with the top 10.

If he keeps the fenders on it, this is a smash value.

If not…well…you knew what you signed up for.

Josh Berry ($7,100) – Starting 25th

Short track ace. Period.

Berry is one of those guys who just understands how to get around places like this. He’s not flashy, but he’s efficient, and at Bristol that matters more than whatever highlight reel nonsense is happening up front.

He’s here for position differential and sneaky top-15 upside.

Alex Bowman ($7,000) – Starting 27th

Bowman is back after dealing with vertigo, which is…not ideal when your job involves flying into corners at Bristol.

But here’s the thing. The model loves him. Like, uncomfortably loves him.

Concrete tracks like Bristol and Dover? That’s his lane. The car should be fast, the starting spot gives him place-differential upside, and ownership should be low because people are understandably nervous.

Let’s run it back:

Fast car
Position differential upside
Track history
Low ownership

“Fo. Fo. Fo.”

If that joke missed, so be it. Bowman won’t.

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Final Thoughts on Food City 500 DFS Strategy

At some point Sunday afternoon, this race is going to unravel.

It always does.

A mistimed lap down, a guy running out of patience, a restart that turns into a parking lot…something flips, and suddenly the entire slate is hanging by a thread.

That’s Bristol, baby.

So our goal isn’t perfection, it’s survival with upside.

Blaney controls the front. Byron claws forward. The middle holds steady. And Bowman…just quietly reminds everyone he’s really good at this place.

If that happens, we’re not just live.

We’re dangerous.

Now, let’s go see if anyone bothered to enter this contest while they were watching golf.

Want to bet the Food City 500 outright? Head to the best betting sites for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Food City 500 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $20,000 to first place on a $10 entry for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Rockingham Speedway
• Jake Garcia starts from pole as the early dominator play while Chandler Smith starting 33rd provides massive place-differential upside
• Below, see our NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for Rockingham

Somewhere tonight, a Truck Series driver is going to enter the corner way too hot, refuse to lift, and create a situation that could generously be described as “avoidable.”

We don’t know who.
We don’t know when.
But we do know…it’s coming.

And that’s the beauty of this thing.

Because while half the field is busy making poor life choices in real time, there’s a $10 entry contest with $20,000 to first on DraftKings just sitting there, waiting for someone slightly more responsible (us, allegedly) to scoop it up.

The green flag flies at 4:30 p.m. ET on FS1, and with 200 laps at Rockingham, this is not the week to get cute. There are dominator points everywhere, tire falloff will separate the field, and if you don’t have the right guys up front…

Rockingham Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Rockingham Truck Series DFS picks at the top DFS sites and apps before the green flag drops.

Rockingham Truck Series DFS Strategy: The Build

Jake Garcia ($6,700 | P1)

Starting on the pole, Garcia is in a sneaky spot to pay off immediately. We’re not asking him to win the race, we’re asking him to grab early dominator points before the field settles in. If he leads 20-30 laps out front before fading to the back half of the top 10, that’s a smash at this price.

Kaden Honeycutt ($9,000 | P3)

We don’t think you can win this slate without him.

Honeycutt had what we’re calling the best overall practice session, qualified third, and checks every box for a Rockingham dominator. We project him for top-3 in fastest laps and laps led, and the ceiling here is very real.

If this turns into a long-run beatdown, he’s one of the guys doing the beating.

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Truck Series DFS Picks: Position Differential Targets

Chandler Smith ($9,300 | P33)

This is the engine of the lineup.

Starting 33rd, Chandler Smith is basically DFS catnip. We’ve got him projected around a 14th-place finish, which already smashes value on position differential alone. But this is also a driver who has won at higher levels in NASCAR, in good equipment, at a track that rewards experience.

If he does anything more than “fine,” you’re flying up the leaderboard.

Sammy Smith ($9,500 | P24)

Speaking of guys who like this place…

Sammy Smith ran the Truck race here last year and then casually came back the next day and won the Xfinity race. Not a bad little weekend.

Now he rolls off 24th with massive position-differential upside, and we’re expecting him to move forward early and often. If the long-run pace shows up, this could be one of the highest raw scorers on the slate.

Corey Lajoie ($7,200 | P23)

Look, Corey Lajoie has a fantastic podcast.

Winning this race? Probably not on the menu.

But this is a veteran driver with Cup experience in a new Kaulig Dodge ride, and at a track like Rockingham, that matters. We’re projecting a mid-teens finish, with upside if attrition hits like it usually does with these truckers.

Not sexy. Very useful.

Ben Rhodes ($8,100 | P25)

Former Truck Series champion. Starting 25th. That’s really all we need to know.

Rhodes is your classic “don’t ruin my lineup” piece with position-differential upside. He doesn’t need to dominate, he just needs to move forward and exist in the top 15 by the end of the night.

Sometimes that’s all it takes.

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Final Thoughts on Rockingham Truck Series DFS Strategy

This is a dominator-heavy slate, and we’re building accordingly.

Garcia gives us early lap leader potential. Honeycutt gives us a legit shot at controlling the race. Chandler Smith and Sammy Smith give us massive position-differential upside.

Lajoie and Rhodes keep the whole thing from falling apart.

In other words…this lineup makes a lot of sense.

Which, historically speaking, is exactly what makes it terrifying.

Let’s go win $20K.

Looking to bet the Truck Series at Rockingham outright? Head to the best online sportsbook for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR Truck Series DFS Picks – Rockingham Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Eckes stands out in the second tier: Strong recent form with upside at current odds.
• 200 laps at Rockingham…what could go wrong: High banking, fast surface, and a field that doesn’t lift.
• Read below for NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series odds, predictions and start time.

There are racing series where patience is rewarded. Where drivers manage their equipment, think three steps ahead, and treat 200 laps like a chess match played at 180 miles per hour.

This is not one of those series.

This is the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, and on Friday afternoon they’re heading to Rockingham Speedway, a freshly revived 0.94-mile oval set to host 200 laps of high-banked chaos driven by a field of well-funded lunatics.

“The Rock” is actually kind of beautiful. It features 22 degrees of banking in Turns 1 and 2 and 25 in Turns 3 and 4, with just enough wear starting to show after the repave. In theory, that should create multiple grooves, tire management, and long green-flag runs.

In reality, it’s going to produce maniacs trying to clear gaps that don’t exist.

Because instead of a measured, tire-conscious duel, what we get here is simple. Give this group banking and grip, and eventually someone decides the fastest way forward is directly through another truck.

Now before we get into the matchups, understand one thing.

The Truck Series is the Wild West.

At any moment, a perfectly good run can be wiped out by someone choosing violence with 3,400 pounds of sheet metal. Strategies disappear, and your betting card goes from “this feels sharp” to “I should’ve just lit this money on fire and enjoyed the ambiance.”

As Mad Men’s Joan Harris once said:

“That’s life. One minute you’re on top of the world, the next minute some secretary’s running you over with a lawn mower.”

That’s not a metaphor here.

That’s Friday.

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Start Time

Green flag is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Odds

Odds available at theScore Bet as of 3:07 p.m. ET on April 2. Layne Riggs sits as the favorite at +350, which implies a 22.22% chance to win. Shop the best sportsbook promos for the top NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series odds.

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NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Predictions

Outright Winner

Christian Eckes (+1600, theScore Bet)

Top-5

Christian Eckes (+275, theScore Bet)

Eckes is our fourth-rated driver before practice and qualifying, sitting behind the usual suspects in Corey Heim, Carson Hocevar, and Layne Riggs. Which is exactly what we want, because the number isn’t pricing him like someone who belongs in that tier.

We think he does.

Two weeks ago at Darlington, a track with similar banking and two completely different ends, Eckes finished third while showing legitimate race-winning speed. He logged 13 fastest laps and led 7, which tells you this wasn’t a fluky track position run.

Rockingham isn’t quite as abrasive as Darlington, but the surface is already starting to wear after the repave. That puts a premium on drivers who can manage tires without giving up speed, which is exactly where Eckes tends to live.

If you want a track-specific angle, he finished sixth here in the Xfinity Series last season while spending 89.8% of his laps inside the top 15.

At +1600, we’re getting a driver with top-tier pace at a number that still thinks he’s a step behind.

Matchups

Christian Eckes over Jake Garcia (-145, theScore Bet)

We’re buying more Eckes and fading Jake Garcia, who our model projects to finish 4.8 positions worse on average.

Garcia is fine. Sometimes even solid.

But this number is asking him to hang with a driver who consistently runs closer to the front on comparable tracks. That’s not a bet we need to overthink.

Ty Majeski over Chandler Smith (-115, theScore Bet)

Majeski is projected at 7.3, while Chandler Smith comes in at 11.1.

That’s a meaningful gap at a track where long-run pace and track position matter. Majeski’s profile fits this race style, while Smith’s number feels a little inflated based on name value.

We’ll take the better projection at a near coin flip.

Tyler Ankrum over Ben Rhodes (-135, theScore Bet)

This one looks close in projected finish, 9.7 vs. 10.8.

It’s not.

On comparable tracks, Ankrum has been operating on a completely different level:

• Fastest laps per race: 3.0 vs. 0.8
• Laps led per race: 13.6 vs. 1.2
• Average running position: 9.5 vs. 24.0
• Top-15 rate: Ankrum clears Rhodes by 45%

That’s not a small edge. It’s an entirely different zip code.

Ankrum has speed while Rhodes has been hanging on in 2026. We’re backing the guy actually driving forward.

Final Thoughts

There’s a moment in every Truck Series race where everything is going exactly how you drew it up…

…and then someone decides it would be fun to test the structural integrity of three other trucks at once.

That moment is coming. It always does.

The goal isn’t to avoid it. The goal is to already be holding the right tickets when it happens.

The post NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Odds, Predictions & Start Time appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Preece for Payback: Model edge and short-track speed line up for Ryan Preece over Brad Keselowski.
• Martinsville Mayhem: Concrete corners, brake fade, and bump-and-run chaos incoming.
• Read below for expert NASCAR Cook Out 400 predictions and updated odds for Martinsville (Mar. 29).

There are certain weeks on the NASCAR calendar where the data speaks clearly.
Where the model lines up with the eye test.
Where everything feels…comfortable.

This is not one of those weeks.

Last Sunday at Darlington Raceway, Tyler Reddick decided to simply win again. It is his fourth victory in six races, because apparently, the rest of the field has collectively agreed to take the spring off. The sportsbooks have reacted the only way they know how…by hanging him at +1400 as an outright winner and daring the public to click the button one more time.

And that brings us to this week’s guiding philosophy, courtesy of Don Draper:

“People want to be told what to do so badly that they’ll listen to anyone.”

So here it is.

Do not bet Tyler Reddick.

Not because he’s bad. Not because he can’t win. But because this is Martinsville Speedway…and Martinsville does not care about your feelings, our model, or his recent winning form.

Updated Cook Out 400 Odds for Martinsville

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:45 p.m. ET on March 28. Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +400, implying a win probability of 20.0%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top Cook Out 400 odds.

Expert Cook Out 400 Predictions

Martinsville is a 0.526-mile paperclip that looks like it was drawn by someone who hates race cars.

The straightaways are asphalt. The corners are concrete. The vibes are hostile.

And that concrete matters.

Because while the straightaways lull you into thinking this is a normal short track, the corners immediately remind you that grip is optional and braking is a full-contact activity. Drivers hammer the stop pedal like it owes them money, rotors glow like a space heater in January, and by Lap 300 everyone is just negotiating with physics.

Passing is technically possible…but it usually involves moving someone.

Ryan Preece over Brad Keselowski (-130, Caesars)

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There are bets you make because the numbers say so. And then there are bets you make because you’ve been personally victimized.

This one just happens to be both.

Ryan Preece projects at 11.6 in our model following practice and qualifying. Brad Keselowski checks in at 17.4.

That’s not a gap. It’s a whole different zip code.

Keselowski posted the 25th-best practice score in our model when combining short- and long-run metrics, then followed it up by qualifying 23rd, which is not ideal unless your strategy involves passing 22 cars at Martinsville without committing a felony.

Preece, meanwhile, qualified 17th but the underlying speed metrics tell a different story. He had our eighth-best practice score. Quietly fast. It’s the kind of speed that doesn’t show up on the broadcast until he’s suddenly running ninth and the announcers act surprised.

Across the comparable short, flat tracks in 2025–2026:

• Preece average running position: 17.8
• Keselowski: 18.6
• Preece spends 12% more laps inside the top 15
• Preece averages 12.8 fast laps per race (Keselowski: 9.8)
• Preece averages 10.9 laps led (Keselowski: 9.9)

So yes, the data says Preece.

The year was 2023.

Barbie was dominating the box office.
Morgan Wallen and Last Night was on repeat everywhere.
Suits was somehow the most-streamed show on the planet.

They were simpler times.

Ryan Preece had just cashed a 66/1 pole ticket for the SpeedwaySteve2 faithful on a glorious spring day at Martinsville. The next morning, we clutched our 125/1 tickets like they were priceless artifacts.

He led the first 135 laps. The live number dropped to 3/1. Everything was perfect.

And then he sped on pit road.

From the number one box.

And we’ve never forgotten. But Sunday, we get even.

Not because we’re emotional.
Not because we’re chasing ghosts.

Because the numbers say we should.

(And also because we absolutely are.)

Top-10 Finish: Ryan Preece +130 (BetRivers)

If we’re going to invite more chaos into our lives, we might as well give it a drink.

Preece’s Top-10 number at +130 is the floor. This number should only improve tomorrow morning when sportsbooks first offer it, but will probably yo-yo back down as the market settles and people realize he’s legitimately live at this track.

He’s a modified guy…a short-track lifer…a Martinsville specialist.

The guy can definitely boogie, and he probably loves the hot dogs to boot.

So yes, we’re betting him in the matchup. And yes, we’re betting this positional prop.

Because if this finally cashes…it’s not just a win, it’s closure.

The post Expert NASCAR Cook Out 400 Predictions & updated Odds for Martinsville (Mar. 29) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway
• Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney headline a double-dominator build with elite laps led and fastest lap projections
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Cook Out 400

There’s a $20 contest on DraftKings this weekend with $100,000 to first.

That can buy a lot of hotdogs.

Like…a concerning amount of hotdogs.

The kind of money where you stop asking questions like “should I do this?” and start asking “how many can I physically carry?”

Cook Out 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Cook Out 400 NASCAR DFS lineup at the best daily fantasy sports apps before the green flag drops at Martinsville.

Here’s something you may not know.

We rebuilt the patented SpeedwaySteve2 algorithm this week.

We’ve added some shiny new toys like projected fastest laps, laps led, z-scores, and starting position weights…all the things that make DFS players feel smart…and spreadsheets feel overworked.

We did this because we are now writing DFS content for the fine folks at SportsBettingDime, which means we needed actual, legitimate data to support our nonsense.

The mainstays at SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters were…less than thrilled.

There were grumbles. There were sighs.

There were multiple 72-hour work sessions that may or may not qualify as human rights violations.

Hopefully it helps you, dear reader…because we are rapidly running out of friends.

Cook Out 400 DFS Projections and Strategy

Anytime you can jam both Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney into a Martinsville lineup…you just do it.

No questions and no hesitation.

These two ranked 1a and 1b in our gambling model, and…shocking development…they also come in first and second in projected DFS points.

Hamlin starts on the pole and leads the slate with 60.0 projected laps led. Blaney is right behind at 39.5.

Flip it over to fastest laps, and Blaney takes the crown at 49.6, with Hamlin still elite at 45.9.

Both project to finish inside the top five and both should dominate large chunks of this race.

Will it be enough?

Absolutely not.

That’s why we get four more drivers. Math.

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NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Field Value

Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe slot in as mid-tier plays with legitimate upside.

Wallace projects for 22 laps led and 21 fastest laps, which is exactly the kind of quiet dominator potential you need to win a GPP while everyone else is arguing about ownership percentages.

Briscoe rolls off 27th with a top-10 projection, which means place-differential upside and a path to being the guy everyone wishes they clicked.

Also worth noting: the Toyotas tend to find something extra at Martinsville.

We’re not asking questions. We’re just benefiting from it.

The Back Marker Blues

This is the part nobody enjoys.

This is where dreams go to die.

But you need salary relief, and that means embracing the uncomfortable.

Todd Gilliland checks in with a projection to gain 10+ positions, which in DFS terms translates to “we will absolutely convince ourselves this is sharp.”

And then there’s Ty Dillon. Look…he’s starting 36th. That’s the entire analysis.

There is no downside.

There is only survival.

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Final Thought on Cook Out 400 DFS Strategy

This Cook Out 400 lineup is built around two dominators up front, mid-field value that can quietly pile up points, and back markers who just need to survive and move forward. The green flag drops Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.

And if it all works out, we’re buying hotdogs for everyone.

Want to bet the Cook Out 400 outright? Check out the best betting sites for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Cook Out 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Antonelli on pole: chasing back-to-back wins after breaking through in China.
• Driver’s circuit: rhythm, confidence, and timing matter more than raw speed.
• Read below for 2026 Japanese Grand Prix predictions, odds, start time and F1 picks.

The Formula 1 calendar occasionally throws a curveball.

This time, it’s not tire compounds or strategy calls. It’s the schedule.

With the next two races wiped off the board due to international conflict, the Japanese Grand Prix becomes something of a send-off before an unexpected break. The cars are fast. But even Formula 1 hasn’t figured out how to outrun real-world problems.

So for now, this is it.

One more late-night alarm. One more questionable life decision. One more race that starts at 1:00 a.m. ET, streaming live on Apple TV.

After this, we go back to our regularly scheduled programming…Sunday mornings, coffee in hand, breakfast on the table, and significantly fewer conversations that begin with, “Why are you awake right now?”

Kimi Antonelli won his first career Grand Prix in China the last time these cars hit the track. Naturally, he followed that up by grabbing pole for Sunday at Suzuka.

Which brings us to a thought from our favorite chain-smoking 1960s ad man:

“What is happiness? It’s a moment before you need more happiness.”

Kimi, apparently, would like another moment.

2026 Japanese Grand Prix Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 12:09 p.m. ET on March 29. Kimi Antonelli is the favorite at -200, implying a win probability of 66.7%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top Japanese Grand Prix odds.

Japanese Grand Prix Preview

Suzuka is one of the few tracks on the calendar that still feels like it has opinions.

The 5.807-kilometer circuit features 18 turns and will host 53 laps on Sunday, blending high-speed commitment with technical precision in a way that exposes even the smallest mistake.

The opening sector flows like a rollercoaster, a rapid sequence of direction changes that punish even the slightest misstep. The back half of the track is no more forgiving, with fast corners that demand confidence and braking zones that arrive a little quicker than drivers would like.

Overtaking is possible, but it’s earned. Track position still matters, and with modern cars leaning on battery deployment instead of DRS, timing those bursts becomes just as important as outright pace.

In other words, this is a driver’s track.

Which is great.

Because we’re about to try to beat a sportsbook at 1:00 in the morning.

Japanese Grand Prix Predictions

Antonelli leads the field to green alongside his Mercedes teammate George Russell, locking out the front row for the Silver Arrows.

Behind them, Oscar Piastri lines up third for McLaren, with the always photogenic Charles Leclerc sitting fourth.

Row three brings Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton, which feels like a pairing capable of either podium contention or immediate regret by Turn 1.

And then there’s Max Verstappen…starting 11th after missing Q3.

The four-time world champion has been chasing pace all season, and Suzuka didn’t suddenly fix it. What used to feel like a routine march through the field now feels a little more…negotiable.

Progress is still likely.

Dominance? Out of the question.

Japanese Grand Prix F1 Picks

Lewis Hamilton over Oscar Piastri (-140, DraftKings)

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Lewis Hamilton is fresh off his first podium in Ferrari red, and more importantly, he’s driving a car that has been an absolute weapon off the line.

The Ferraris have led Lap 1 in every Grand Prix this season…without starting on the front row in any of them.

Which is ridiculous.

They’ve consistently jumped faster cars into Turn 1, and at a track like Suzuka where track position still matters (probably), that’s a massive edge.

Meanwhile, Oscar Piastri hasn’t just struggled at the start…he hasn’t even made it to the start.

Through two races, Piastri has been stuck in the garage at lights out. No getaway. No first lap. No chance to even establish position.

Which makes this setup…less than ideal.

Hamilton rolls off one row behind, which means he’ll have a front-row seat to whatever happens into Turn 1. Given Ferrari’s advantage at lights out, there’s a very real chance he doesn’t stay behind for long.

From there, it becomes a pace and execution race.

And right now, Ferrari has the edge in both.

Max Verstappen over Pierre Gasly (+115, theScore Bet)

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Max Verstappen hasn’t looked like his usual dominant self to start the season, but this is a spot where the number feels like it’s overcorrected.

Our weighted projections have Verstappen finishing ninth and Pierre Gasly tenth, which already leans his direction. But the more important signal comes from the other side of the garage.

Isack Hadjar qualified alongside Gasly, which tells us there’s comparable pace in the machinery. If that’s the baseline, Verstappen should at least have the tools to be in the same neighborhood…if not better.

And when things get messy, this is still Verstappen we’re talking about. Pure race craft. Superior tire management. Strategy calls.

We trust all of it more than what Alpine typically brings to the table on a Sunday.

At plus money, that’s enough for us.

Japanese Grand Prix Start Time

The 2026 Japanese Grand Prix goes green at 1:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, streaming live on Apple TV.

For clarity, “we” refers to SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters — Phil, Steve, and a collection of spreadsheets that occasionally cooperate — not the entire editorial staff of SportsBettingDime.

The post F1 Picks & Odds – Japanese Grand Prix Predictions & Start Time 2026 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $20,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka
• Kimi Antonelli starts from pole fresh off his first career win and anchors our expert lineup as the Captain play
• Below, see our F1 DFS picks, lineup, and strategy for the Japanese Grand Prix

The Formula 1 calendar is heading into an unexpected break, which means one last late-night sweat before we get back to normal Sunday mornings and coffee that doesn’t taste like regret.

Lights out for Suzuka comes at 1:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV, and on the F1 DFS side, DraftKings is hanging a $20 contest with $20,000 going to first.

Which means we’re not here to min-cash.

We’re trying to win the whole thing.

DraftKings scoring is pretty straightforward. Forty points to the winner, fastest lap is worth three, laps led come in at a quarter point each, and you get a full point for every position gained. Captains score 1.5x, and constructors pile on bonuses if both cars run well.

So really, you’re chasing three things.

Dominators, position differential…and chaos.

Japanese Grand Prix Expert DFS Lineup

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Lock in your Japanese Grand Prix F1 DFS picks at the top DFS sites before lights out at Suzuka.

Japanese Grand Prix DFS Strategy: Antonelli and Mercedes

Our lineup starts with Kimi Antonelli in the Captain spot, and honestly, this one feels pretty straightforward.

He’s on pole. He’s coming off his first career win in China. And more importantly, he’s driving the fastest car over a full race stint. If things play out the way they’re supposed to, Antonelli is going to spend a good chunk of this race out front, stacking laps led and putting himself in position to grab fastest lap as well.

At 1.5x scoring, that’s the kind of ceiling you build around. And once you go there, you kind of have to commit to it.

That means pairing him with Mercedes as the constructor.

You can almost talk yourself into fading good pieces in DFS. You can get cute and you can try to be different.

This is not one of those spots.

If Mercedes controls this race the way it looks like they can, they’re going to lead the majority of laps, grab the fastest lap bonus, and very realistically put both cars on the podium. That’s how you win this top-heavy contest. Not by getting weird…but by getting it right.

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F1 DFS Picks: Position Differential Targets

Once you lock in Antonelli and Mercedes, the rest of the lineup kind of builds itself.

We’re not paying up for mid-tier safety. We’re diving into the back half of the grid and hoping to find drivers who can simply move forward.

That’s where Fernando Alonso and Alex Albon come in.

Alonso rolls off 21st, which is about as clean of a place-differential setup as you’re going to get. He doesn’t need to do anything heroic. Just survive, move up a handful of spots, and ideally beat his teammate along the way.

Same idea with Albon starting 17th. There’s a path to points just by being competent and staying out of trouble, and if he picks up a teammate win bonus on top of that, even better.

From there, you round things out with Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson, who both live in that same range.

They’re not here to win the race. They’re here to quietly gain positions, avoid disaster, and give you just enough to support the heavy hitters at the top. Lawson, in particular, has a real shot to beat his teammate, which gives you a little extra upside beyond just place differential.

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Final Thought on Japanese Grand Prix F1 DFS Strategy

At the end of the day, this build is pretty simple.

We’re betting on Mercedes to dominate the race…and the rest of the lineup to take advantage of whatever happens behind them.

Because if the first two races of the season have shown us anything, it’s that reliability is still optional.

And when things start breaking in the midfield, that’s where these lineups go from solid…to very live for first place.

Looking to bet the Japanese Grand Prix outright? Head to the best online sportsbook for the latest F1 odds and futures.

The post F1 DFS Picks, Lineup & Strategy for Japanese Grand Prix appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Chris Buescher headlines the betting card with value-driven win equity at Darlington Raceway
• Matchups target data edges with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin in favorable spots
• Goodyear 400 starts Sunday at 3:00 pm ET, live on FS1

This weekend, SpeedwayBrandi staged a hostile takeover of the car radio.

Spotify was doing exactly what it was supposed to do when suddenly “#1” by Nelly came blasting through the speakers like it had just cleared tech inspection at Darlington.

Now, Nelly is not typically where we turn for betting strategy. But every once in a while, a philosopher appears in unexpected places.

“What does it take to be number one? Two is not a winner and three nobody remembers.”

And just like that, somewhere between aisle seven and a debate about whether we actually needed anything in that store, the entire betting approach for Darlington Raceway snapped into place.

Because he’s right.

Nobody remembers second.

And sportsbooks definitely don’t pay you for almost.

NASCAR Goodyear 400 Odds

Tyler Reddick is the NASCAR Goodyear 400 favorite at +350, implying a win probability of 22.2%.

Odds as of 9:10 am ET, March 22, at DraftKings.

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Goodyear 400 Expert Predictions

Darlington Raceway is a 1.366-mile, egg-shaped oval that feels like it was designed specifically to expose bad decisions.

The two ends of the track are completely different, which means a car that’s perfect in Turns 1 and 2 can feel borderline undrivable in Turns 3 and 4. Drivers spend the entire race chasing a balance that never fully arrives.

And then there are the tires.

Lap times fall off dramatically over a run—three, sometimes four seconds from the start of a stint to the end. The preferred line inches closer and closer to the wall, and the margin for error disappears with it.

This is not a place for short-run heroes. It’s a place for drivers who can manage a run, adapt over time, and stay disciplined when everything starts to slide away from them.

Which is why this week, we’re not interested in safe bets.

We’re interested in a driver who can actually win at a price tag that flies under the radar.

Chris Buescher

• Outright Winner (+2800 at bet365; +2500 at TheScore/Caesars/FanDuel)
• Top-10 Finish (+150 at bet365; +105 at BetRivers/Fanduel)

Chris Buescher checks in as our seventh-ranked driver this weekend with a projected finish of 10.1, up from 11.8 before practice and qualifying.

That puts him in the same neighborhood as Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace, drivers sitting $10 to $15 shorter on the board.

That’s value.

Buescher is not going to wow anyone with flashy metrics or headline-grabbing speed. He doesn’t need to.

In our 2024-2025 comparable track data set, he owns the fifth-best average finish (12.4) and ninth-best average running position (14.1). It’s steady, repeatable performance at a track type where that matters more than raw pace.

He rolls off sixth on Sunday, which means he won’t need to manufacture track position early, and he’ll benefit from a strong pit stall on one of the tighter pit roads on the schedule.

There are more exciting names on this board. There are not better numbers at this price.

From our seat, this is the best combination of value and win equity available.

Goodyear 400 Matchup Picks

Christopher Bell over Chase Elliott (+110, DraftKings)

Christopher Bell comes into this weekend with a projected finish of 12.2, a sharp drop from 6.4 after qualifying 22nd and posting what we graded as the 18th-best practice session.

On the surface, that looks concerning.

At Darlington, it’s not.

This is a track that rewards drivers who can manage tires and run comfortably near the wall over a full stint. Bell’s profile fits that far better than a one-lap snapshot qualifying or a poor practice session might suggest.

Chase Elliott, meanwhile, starts third but ranked 25th in practice. The short-run speed appears to be there.

The long-run outlook is a different story.

And at this track, that difference shows up over time.

There will be plenty of reasons this week to back Elliott…the starting position, the name, the familiarity.

That’s fine.

In the words of Don Draper, “I don’t think about you at all.”

Denny Hamlin over William Byron (-130, DraftKings)

This is the spot where the numbers stop being subtle.

Denny Hamlin is our third-ranked driver this weekend with a projected finish of 5.6.

William Byron is fourth.

At 9.5.

That’s not a gap. That’s the Grand Canyon.

Hamlin rolls off ninth. Byron starts 13th. It’s a slight edge, but it’s not the story.

The story is what happens over a run.

In our 2024-2025 comparable track data set, Hamlin ranks first—and not by a little.

• Average finish: 3.6 (clearing second by 5.4 positions)
• Fastest laps: 23.1 per race
• Laps led: 35.4 per race

Byron, over that same stretch:

• Average finish: 17.6
• Fastest laps: 17 per race
• Similar laps led, but far less consistency

The average running position gap sits at 1.4 spots, and Hamlin spends roughly 7.5% more laps inside the top-15.

At a track that punishes mistakes and rewards discipline, that kind of consistency compounds quickly.

I understand the hesitation and SpeedwayBrandi is not going to like this.

In fact, there’s a very real chance this play results in a temporary relocation to the couch, and that’s before she finds out we told everyone else to bet it too.

But this is one of those spots where the data is loud enough that ignoring it feels like a terrible choice.

And unfortunately, we’ve made peace with being uncomfortable.

Final Thoughts

As a wise philosopher reminded us earlier, two is not a winner and three nobody remembers.

We’re not here to be close.

We’re here to cash.

When we say “we,” we’re talking about me, Steve, and a completely fictional headquarters filled with spreadsheets, strong opinions, and at least one person who takes tire falloff far too seriously.

The post NASCAR Goodyear 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Darlington (Sunday, Mar. 22) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway
• Tyler Reddick starts from pole and anchors our expert lineup as the dominator play with massive laps-led upside
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Goodyear 400

When you see the word “we” in this article, it is not a royal we.

It is also not a SportsBettingDime editorial collective sitting around a conference table calmly discussing tire falloff like this is a normal, well-adjusted workplace.

It is me, Steve, and a completely fictitious headquarters filled with matching polo-wearing geniuses, three aggressively used whiteboards, and one deeply skeptical employee who hasn’t trusted a short-run speed chart since 2018.

This is not an office. It’s a situation.

There are spreadsheets open that nobody fully understands anymore. There is a running argument about tire degradation that has entered its third day. Someone yelled “clean air is a lifestyle” and nobody pushed back.

At one point, a completely reasonable suggestion was made to “just play it safe,” and that person has not been heard from since.

This week, after entirely too much coffee and at least one unnecessary victory lap over a practice ranking, that group believes we’ve found something.

Goodyear 400 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections

DraftKings salaries as of race week. Get started on your Goodyear 400 NASCAR DFS picks at the best DFS apps and promos before the green flag drops at Darlington.

Goodyear 400 DFS Strategy

Darlington is one of the rare tracks where a single driver can completely tilt a DFS slate without winning the race.

With tire falloff approaching three to four seconds over a run, track position and clean air become everything. If a driver gets out front and controls restarts, they can stack fastest laps and laps led in a hurry.

That’s the angle we’re attacking with our NASCAR DFS picks this week.

We want one driver capable of leading early and often, paired with multiple high-upside position-differential plays starting deeper in the field.

Core Play: Tyler Reddick ($9,500) – Starting P1

Tyler Reddick is our top-ranked driver in projected finish, and more importantly, he fits perfectly into the DFS blueprint we’re targeting.

The inside lane has been dominant on starts and restarts, and there’s little reason to believe Reddick won’t clear and control the race early. If he gets out front, this could turn into a long stretch of clean air where he simply manages the race and clicks off laps.

There’s also a clear path for race control within his own camp. Teammate Bubba Wallace should be in position to slot in behind him early, which only strengthens Reddick’s ability to maintain track position and dictate the pace.

If this race stays green through the opening run, there’s a realistic scenario where Reddick leads deep into Stage 1 before green-flag pit cycles shuffle the field.

That kind of stretch is exactly what we’re hunting.

We saw a version of this earlier in the weekend, where a single driver (Kyle Larson) controlled large portions of the race, led laps in bunches, and still ended up as an optimal DFS play despite not winning.

If Reddick delivers that type of dominator output, we don’t need him to win.

Although…there’s a very real chance he does anyway.

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Toyota Stack: Position Differential with Speed

The rest of the build leans heavily into a Toyota stack featuring Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, and Christopher Bell, all starting deep enough to offer meaningful position-differential upside.

Ty Gibbs ($8,000) – Starting P28

Gibbs is the engine of this lineup.

We have him projected to finish inside the top 10 (9.7), which gives him massive position-differential potential from a 28th-place starting spot. His pre-qualifying projection was already strong at 10.3, and nothing from practice changed that outlook.

In fact, it reinforced it.

We graded his practice session as second-best in the field, and he entered the weekend as a clear play-on target. Add in recent form, with finishes of fourth, fourth, and fifth over the last three races, and this sets up as one of the strongest value-adjusted plays on the slate.

If Gibbs simply runs to expectation, he’s a slate-breaker.

Chase Briscoe ($10,700 – Starting P23) and Christopher Bell ($9,700 – Starting P22)

Briscoe and Bell round out the Toyota stack, both offering strong position-differential profiles with top-12 projections.

• Briscoe projected finish: 11.2
• Bell projected finish: 12.2

Both drivers have the kind of long-run profiles that translate well to Darlington, and both are starting far enough back to provide meaningful DFS upside without needing race-winning speed.

If they move forward steadily and avoid mistakes, they anchor the middle of the lineup while Reddick and Gibbs do the heavy lifting.

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Value Plays: Salary Relief with Upside

To make the build work, we’re dipping into the value tier with two drivers who don’t need to do much to pay off their tags but still carry upside if things break their way.

John Hunter Nemechek ($6,200 – Starting P21) and Todd Gilliland ($5,500 – Starting P31)

• Nemechek projected finish: 22.4
• Gilliland projected finish: 18.8

These are not must-smash plays. They are don’t-ruin-the-day plays with paths to outperform.

At Darlington, strategy matters. If either driver finds themselves on an alternate pit cycle or stays out at the right time, there are opportunities to steal a handful of fastest laps or briefly grab track position.

That’s all we need at these price points.

Why This Goodyear 400 Lineup Works

Darlington is chaotic, but it is not random.

Lap times fall off dramatically over a run, both ends of the track demand different approaches, and the preferred groove inches closer to the wall as the race unfolds. Drivers who can manage tires and flirt with the fence without crossing the line tend to separate themselves.

We’ve built a lineup around that reality:

• A potential early dominator with clean-air upside
• Multiple high-speed cars starting deep with position differential
• Value plays that don’t need perfection to return value

If Reddick controls the race early and the Toyota group moves forward as expected, this lineup has a path to the top of the leaderboard.

Final Thoughts on Goodyear 400 DFS Strategy

This is a $20 entry contest on DraftKings with $100,000 going to first.

And no one is going to see this build coming.

Which is exactly how we like it.

Want to bet the Goodyear 400 outright? Browse the top sportsbooks for the latest NASCAR odds and futures.

The post NASCAR DFS Picks – Goodyear 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• The SpeedwaySteve2 model finds value in early Pennzoil 400 matchups, highlighted by Kyle Larson’s dominance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
• Practice speed and comparable-track metrics point toward Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott as strong matchup targets
• Read below for updated NASCAR Pennzoil 400 odds and final predictions for Sunday’s race

The first four weeks of the NASCAR season have been difficult on spreadsheets.

Superspeedways don’t respect them, road courses ignore them, and short tracks occasionally mock them.

But this weekend, the NASCAR schedule finally delivers a track where our numbers get their revenge.

The Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400, a 1.5-mile intermediate where speed, tire management and clean air usually decide the outcome. With 267 laps scheduled, there will be plenty of opportunities for the fastest cars to prove our spreadsheets right.

And around SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters, that’s exactly what we’re hoping for.

One quick note before we get into the bets. When this column says “we,” it’s referring to the SpeedwaySteve2 model and analysis that Steve and I use when handicapping these races. The lawyers would like everyone to know we are not speaking on behalf of SportsBettingDime.

Which is probably for the best. If they were responsible for everything that comes out of SpeedwaySteve2 headquarters, their insurance premiums would triple.

Updated Pennzoil 400 Odds

Odds available at DraftKings as of 1:22 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 5. Kyle Larson is the Pennzoil 400 favorite at +400, implying a win probability of 20%. Shop the best online sportsbooks for the top NASCAR odds.

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Final Pennzoil 400 Predictions

First things first: a quick thank you to BetRivers, who were the only sportsbook brave enough to post matchup lines at this hour. The rest of the books will roll them out in the morning.

Fortunately for them, we will likely be asleep by then, recovering from the 3:00 a.m. ET Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix caffeine marathon.

Kyle Larson over Christopher Bell (-129, BetRivers)

Kyle Larson shows up at Las Vegas the way certain golfers show up at Augusta. The track simply fits.

Larson qualified fifth and posted the best overall practice session, while our model moved his projected finish from 3.2 to 2.6 after the data came in. His Vegas track record over the last several races has been borderline absurd, with elite metrics in fastest laps, laps led and average running position.

Christopher Bell starts on the pole and ranked ninth in practice, but the model still projects him back around 8.3 at the finish.

Starting position gives Bell the early advantage, but Larson’s long-run pace at this track has been consistently elite. If the race settles into longer green-flag runs, Larson should have the faster car.

Tyler Reddick over Ty Gibbs (-106, BetRivers)

This matchup largely comes down to overall pace.

Tyler Reddick qualified seventh and ranked seventh in practice, while the model projects him around 5.9 after originally sitting at 5.6 earlier in the week. Reddick has been consistently strong on intermediate tracks and the No. 45 team continues to show competitive long-run speed.

Ty Gibbs starts third and ranked third in practice, which explains why this line sits close to even money. The model still sees Gibbs finishing deeper in the field, projecting him at 11.3 after originally sitting at 13.7 earlier in the week.

The longer-term intermediate-track data also leans toward Reddick. In 20 comparable track starts since 2024, Reddick has two wins, averaging 22.8 fastest laps and 21.3 laps led per race while posting a 9.6 average running position, which ranks second among the group.

Gibbs, meanwhile, is still searching for his first Cup Series win on any track type, for that matter. Over the same sample, he averages 8.5 fastest laps and 7.5 laps led, with a 14.1 average running position.

Gibbs should run well early with the track position advantage, but over a full race distance, the model and the underlying speed metrics both give Reddick the edge.

Chase Elliott over Ross Chastain (-129, BetRivers)

Chase Elliott qualified 15th but posted one of the strongest practice sessions in the field, tied for third overall. That performance pushed his projected finish in the model from 11.9 to 9.9, signaling a meaningful improvement once the practice data was incorporated.

Ross Chastain qualified 17th and ranked 16th in practice, which aligns closely with the model’s projection around 14.0 for Sunday’s race.

The longer-term intermediate-track data also nudges this matchup toward Elliott. In 20 comparable track starts since 2024, both drivers have two wins, but Elliott holds the edge in the underlying speed metrics. Over that span, Elliott averages 7.3 fastest laps per race compared to Chastain’s 4.0, along with 11.7 laps led to Chastain’s 8.6.

Elliott also carries a slight advantage in average running position (13.3 vs. 14.1), reinforcing the model’s preference for the No. 9 in this matchup.

With stronger practice speed, a higher projected finish and better long-run metrics on comparable tracks, Elliott becomes the preferred side here.

Kyle Busch over Brad Keselowski (-114, BetRivers)

Kyle Busch quietly showed solid speed during practice.

Busch ranked 10th overall in practice, and the model improved his projected finish slightly from 12.4 to 11.8 after the data came in.

Brad Keselowski qualified 28th and ranked 23rd in practice, which aligns with the model’s projection around 18.7.

Both drivers start deeper in the field, but Busch’s stronger practice speed and higher projection make him the preferred side.

The post Updated NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Odds & Final Predictions for Sunday’s Race appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• Kyle Larson leads the Kalshi prediction market at 23% implied probability for the 2026 Pennzoil 400
• Christopher Bell and Larson both climbed seven points on the Kalshi board after Toyota swept the top four qualifying spots
• Read below for Pennzoil 400 Kalshi predictions, outright picks, and top 10 trades at Las Vegas

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400 this Sunday, March 15. The green flag drops at 4:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

LVMS is a 1.5-mile intermediate oval and the first cookie-cutter track of 2026. Long runs, tire management, and clean air matter here. Kalshi and other prediction markets are offering both outright win and top 10 finish markets again this week.

Kyle Larson leads the Kalshi board at 23% after climbing seven points. Christopher Bell jumped seven as well after winning the pole, with Toyota sweeping the top four qualifying spots. Denny Hamlin swept the practice speed boards and sits third at 16%. Blaney dropped a point to 9% despite winning at Phoenix last week, as the market weighs his three straight crashes at this track.

The full Kalshi board is below, followed by our outright picks and top 10 trades.

2026 Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Odds

*Kalshi odds as of March 15, 2026. Kalshi is legal in all 50 states. Start trading with the Kalshi referral code “DIME“.

Ross Chastain at 4 cents on Kalshi pays $250 on a $10 play. FanDuel has him at +1300, paying just $130 on that same bet. That’s nearly double the payout. The Kalshi edge on longshots holds again this week, and you still get the ability to sell mid-race if your driver is running up front.

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Pennzoil 400 Outright Picks

Larson owns this track. He has three wins at LVMS and 819 career laps led, nearly 250 more than any other active driver. His 5.75 average finish over the last four races is the best in the field. Larson qualified fifth Saturday and showed flat long-run speed in practice with no tire fade.

A $10 play at 23 cents returns $43 on Kalshi. DraftKings has him at +450, paying $45 on that same bet. The sportsbook edge is minimal here, and Kalshi gives you the option to sell if Larson is leading at halfway, where his shares could push to 50-60 cents.

Ross Chastain at 4 cents is my longshot play. Since joining Trackhouse Racing, Chastain has five top-5 finishes in eight starts at LVMS with a 7.6 average finish. He finished second in this race last spring and ranks third in average running position (7.75) over the last four races.

The No. 1 Chevy has led 167 laps at this track since the move to Trackhouse, and Chastain’s practice speeds ranked inside the top five. A $10 play returns $250.

• Pennzoil 400 Prediction to Win: Kyle Larson (23% / 23¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Longshot Pick: Ross Chastain (4% / 4¢ per share on Kalshi)

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Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Top 10 Picks

Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Top 10 Odds

Shane van Gisbergen top 10 at 25 cents is the best value on the entire Kalshi board this week. The implied probability sits at 38%, but you’re only paying 25 cents per share, a 13-cent gap that’s wider than any other prop this weekend. SVG climbed 18 points in the top 10 market and his oval racing has improved with a sixth at Atlanta and 11th at Phoenix in 2026.

Ty Gibbs top 10 at 56 cents is another play that makes sense. He climbed 15 points after qualifying third and topping the adjusted practice speed analyzer. Gibbs has back-to-back fourth-place finishes at COTA and Phoenix, and the JGR Toyotas looked fast all weekend in Vegas.

Pennzoil 400 Top 10 Picks:

• Shane van Gisbergen Top 10 (38% / 25¢ per share on Kalshi)
• Ty Gibbs Top 10 (57% / 56¢ per share on Kalshi)

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How to Watch the 2026 Pennzoil 400

The 2026 Pennzoil 400 airs live on FS1 this Sunday, March 15, at 4:00 p.m. ET from Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Expect 80-degree temperatures with cloud cover and just a 10% chance of rain.

The post 2026 Pennzoil 400 Kalshi Predictions: NASCAR Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Top 10 Trades appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.