The Jauan Jennings sweepstakes is over. The former 49ers wideout is heading to Minnesota on a one-year, $8 million deal that can max out at $13 million with incentives, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. It’s a major win for the Vikings front office given that PFF had Jennings’ market value pegged at over $16 million annually.

Jennings slots in as the WR3 behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, filling a clear hole on a roster that had Tai Felton and Myles Price penciled in at WR3 and WR4. The bigger question is what this signing does for Minnesota’s NFL futures odds with Kyler Murray now under center.

Keep reading for the latest Vikings win total odds, NFC North odds, and my favorite bet to make off the Jennings news.

Vikings Win Total Odds After Jennings Signing

Minnesota’s win total sits at 8.5 at FanDuel, with the Under juiced to -140 (58% implied probability). The Over is sitting at +120, which equals a 45% chance to cash. Books aren’t fully buying in on the Murray-led Vikings just yet.

That’s a low number for a team that won 14 games two years ago and still got to 9-8 last season with bad QB play. Add Murray, who finished 9th in QBR back in his last full season in Arizona, and pair him with Jefferson, Addison, and now Jennings, and the offense has real teeth.

NFC North Odds 2026

The Vikings are sitting at +600 to win the NFC North at FanDuel, the longest price in the division. Detroit is the +145 favorite, Green Bay sits at +230, and even Chicago is ahead of Minnesota at +320. That’s a brutal division to navigate, and it’s the main reason the win total is set at 8.5 despite the talent on the roster.

Best Bet: Vikings Over 8.5 Wins

• Pick: Vikings Over 8.5 Wins (+120 at FanDuel)

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The Jennings signing is the kind of low-risk, high-floor move that pushes me toward the Over at plus money. Minnesota gets a 6-3, 208-pound red-zone weapon for a fraction of his market value, and he’s coming off a season where he caught 9 touchdowns on just 90 targets.

The Vikings already had Jefferson and Addison locked in as one of the better WR1-2 combos in football. Adding Jennings gives Murray a physical, contested-catch threat in the red zone, where Minnesota’s offense has been hit-or-miss the past two years.

Pair the upgraded skill group with Brian Flores’ defense, which has ranked 2nd and 3rd in DVOA the last two seasons, and you have a team built to win 9-10 games if Murray stays upright. The schedule also includes matchups against the Jets and Dolphins out of the AFC East, which are two very winnable games.

The risk is real. The NFC North is loaded, Murray has an injury history of his own, and the secondary still has questions. But getting +120 on a team with this much firepower and a top-5 defense is value I’ll take all day.

The post Jauan Jennings to Vikings: How Does the Signing Impact Minnesota’s Win Total Odds? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Las Vegas Raiders are turning the page on a putrid 2025 season. Both of their starting quarterbacks – Geno Smith (15 starts) and Kenny Pickett (two starts) – have found new homes. The Raiders have retained Aidan O’Connell, who appeared in one game in 2025, but the top two quarterbacks on the depth charts are new to Sin City.

In April’s overhaul, the Raiders signed Kirk Cousins out of free agency and drafted Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Cousins would be the starter if the season started tomorrow, but Mendoza has the summer to wriggle into the starting job.

Keep reading for a look at the Raiders’ Week 1 quarterback odds, balancing Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza, and Aidan O’Connell.

Las Vegas’ Week 1 Quarterback Odds

Prediction Markets

LV QB Contenders

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Kalshi

Kirk Cousins

67%

Fernando Mendoza

35%

Aidan O'Connell

1%

Predict

Kirk Cousins leads the way both on unofficial depth charts and in Kalshi odds, trading at 75¢. Fernando Mendoza is in second place, trading at 37¢. Not to be forgotten, Aidan O’Connell is trading at 8¢, a clear longshot.

As of Wednesday, May 6th at 10:00 pm ET at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code.

Kirk Cousins

Signed on April 2, Cousins is the leader in the clubhouse to be the Raiders’ Week 1 starter. Cousins overlapped with head coach Klint Kubiak for three seasons in Minnesota. In 2019 and 2020, Kubiak was Minnesota’s quarterbacks coach before ascending to the offensive coordinator role in 2021. Cousins made two Pro Bowls and had a 105.0 passer rating in 47 starts under Kubiak.

Cousins’ age and 2023 Achilles injury have begun to take their toll on his career. After a sturdy run in Minnesota, Cousins has been below average the last two seasons with the Falcons. In 2024, Cousins led the NFL with 16 interceptions despite being benched late in the season. He had a passer rating below 90.0 and a QBR below 50.0 in both seasons as a Falcon.

Cousins is the highest floor option for the Raiders while being the second-highest ceiling. Cousins has 174 NFL games under his belt with 167 starts for three different teams. While a win-loss record is far from the most reliable metric, Cousins does have a career 88-77-2 record, posting a winning record in his time in Minnesota and Atlanta. With an NFL win total set at 5.5 wins, Cousins might be the best bet for the Raiders to clear that low mark.

Fernando Mendoza

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Mendoza elevated to superstar levels with a magnificent 2025 season. Mendoza led Indiana to an undefeated National Championship season, winning the Heisman. He played 36 games in three collegiate seasons, tossing 71 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.

Mendoza is in the middle of the pack in terms of college experience. He notably did feature in two different offenses, so he has shown a propensity to adapt – one positive that could help him start Week 1. In the Raiders’ history, Derek Carr is the only Week 1 quarterback starter (2014). Previous No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell did not start until Week 17 of the 2007 season.

The last six No. 1 pick quarterbacks started Week 1, including Cam Ward last season. The battle with Cousins has an additional wrinkle because Cousins played (at a Pro Bowl level) under Kubiak previously, but recent history has been slanted toward the No. 1 pick since Kyler Murray in 2019.

Mendoza offers the highest ceiling and the second-best floor of the group. Barring disaster, Mendoza will be the long-term starter in Las Vegas. It is just a matter of time before Klint Kubiak breaks the glass and inserts the 2025 Heisman into the lineup. Even without the guaranteed starting job, Mendoza is second in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.

Aidan O’Connell

A fourth-round pick in 2023, O’Connell has played in 21 games in his NFL career. He has 17 starts, compiling a 7-10 record. He was Las Vegas’ primary starting in 2023, leading the Raiders to a 5-5 record with 12 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.

O’Connell is the closest option to being an “incumbent,” but with a new coaching staff in place, the incumbent label does not hold much sway. Last season, O’Connell threw just 22 passes, all in a relief effort of Kenny Pickett in Week 18. On a technicality, O’Connell did lead a fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive to knock off the Chiefs.

O’Connell is likely the lowest floor and lowest ceiling option in the Raiders’ room. His value is his rapport with the likes of Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers.

The post Will Fernando Mendoza Start for Raiders? See Week 1 QB Odds for Las Vegas appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Is there a more depressing QB situation in football than the Cleveland Browns? The Jets certainly have an argument with their quarterback room, but for my money nothing tops the Browns.

Cleveland is heading into the 2026 season with four QB’s battling for the starting job. Prediction markets expect Deshaun Watson to win the competition, but given his injury situation and his level of play since joining the Browns, how much faith in him can we really have?

Browns Starting QB Odds in Week 1

Prediction Markets

Contenders

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Kalshi

Deshaun Watson

65%

Shedeur Sanders

37%

Kyler Murray

4%

Ty Simpson

3%

Predict

As of Tuesday afternoon, Kalshi gives Watson a 59% chance of winning the starting job, which equals -143 odds in traditional sports betting terms. He’s got a 42% chance to fall short (+138), and while I’d normally jump at the opportunity to bet against him, the options behind Watson are bleak.

Shedeur Sanders is next on the board with a 36% chance to be QB1 at the start of the season (+178), while the market is barely recognizing Dillon Gabriel as a candidate, or recent 6th round Draft pick Taylen Green. Of note, both Kyler Murray and Ty Simpson are drawing more interest than Gabriel and Green, despite Murray just signing with the Vikings and Simpson fresh off being selected 13th overall by the Rams

Watson is the Wise Choice

• Browns Week 1 Starter Pick: Deshaun Watson (59¢ at Kalshi)

I think in a perfect world, the Browns would love to trot Sanders back out there for Week 1. He’s a big personality, with an incredibly famous father, and starting him keeps Cleveland in the headlines, even if it’s not for the right reasons.

The even bigger advantage to starting Sanders is that his poor play and lack of a ceiling almost guarantees the Browns will be drafting in a position to take a prized QB in 2027. Next year’s class is loaded with talent, and Cleveland needs to come out of the Draft with their franchise guy.

Sure, there’s a chance that Sanders could improve and spoil the plan, but that’s hard to fathom. Out of qualified QB’s from 2025, Sanders ranked dead last in EPA/play, success rate, completion percentage and touchdowns. He was 2-5 over seven starts, leading the team to 20+ points only twice.

Shedeur Sanders 2025 Ranks

Experts have eviscerated him for his slow processing speed and his lack of presence in the pocket. Sanders averaged over 3 sacks per start as a rookie, and his efficiency cratered the moment he felt pressure. Cleveland did significantly bolster their offensive line this offseason, but these problems were the exact same issues he experienced in college which suggests it’s not a matter of personnel.

At the time of writing, the Browns have one of the lowest projections in the NFL win totals, and will have little chance of exceeding the number with Sanders under center.

As wise as Cleveland would be to avoid even having Watson in the building based on his reputation, reading the tea leaves suggests he’s likely going to be the Week 1 starter in 2026. Reports out of Browns mini camp is that he’s well ahead of Sanders, which should come as no surprise given his previous success.

This is a former 1st Round pick, with three Pro-Bowl nominations and multiple playoff wins on his resume, who was once considered an NFL MVP odds contender. Those accolades feel like they were from a lifetime ago, and Watson certainly hasn’t shined since joining Cleveland. He’s 9-10 over 19 starts with the Browns, with only 19 TD and 12 interceptions, to go along with a league-worst 33.1 QBR over that stretch. To make matters worse, he hasn’t played since October of 2024 due to injury.

Despite his poor track record with the Browns, there’s another reason to expect Watson to be under center in Week 1. Owner Jimmy Haslam, who once referred to Watson’s contract as one of the worst in sports, appears to have changed his tune on the controversial QB.

Haslam has been speaking positively about Watson all off-season, and has gone as far as suggesting that new head coach Todd Monken is the exact type of quarterback guru who could turn Watson’s career around. It makes sense for Haslem to push for Watson to start, as so far he’s received virtually no return on his $230 million investment.

Ultimately, Monken is not going to want to start his Cleveland tenure with the worst quarterback in football, while Haslem’s word has to carry a lot of weight. Watson is a much better talent than Sanders, and given the additions Cleveland made in the Draft, he’s much better equipped to make the Browns offense at least serviceable. From what we’ve seen from him, his best days are behind him, so Cleveland can still proceed with Watson under center and not worry about winning too much to ruin next year’s Draft pick.

The post Browns Starting QB Odds – Who’s Favored in Week 1: Watson, Sanders or Simpson? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Browns QB room is a mess once again, and prediction markets just had a major shake up at the top. Deshaun Watson has overtaken Shedeur Sanders as the favorite to be Cleveland’s Week 1 starting quarterback, completing one of the bigger price swings of the offseason.

Sanders led the way from January through March, peaking above 60% in February. Watson got medically cleared in early April, showed up to voluntary workouts looking lean, and the money has poured in on him ever since.

Keep reading for the latest Browns Week 1 starting QB odds, and my favorite bet to make in this market.

Browns Week 1 Starting QB Odds: Is Shedeur Sanders Still the Favorite?

Prediction Markets

Browns Starting QB Odds

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Kalshi

Deshaun Watson

69%

Shedeur Sanders

37%

Kyler Murray

4%

Dillon Gabriel

3%

Ty Simpson

3%

Predict

The short answer is no. Watson is now trading at 69 cents at Kalshi, which equals -222 odds in traditional sports betting terms. That’s a 28-cent jump for him over the past month.

Sanders has gone the other way, dropping 14 cents to sit at 35 cents (+186). Dillon Gabriel is a distant third at 3 cents, while everyone else in the market is priced at 1 cent or less. This is a two-horse race between the $230 million veteran and the rookie who finished last season as the starter.

Browns 2026 QB Room

Why Watson is Now the Browns Week 1 Starting QB Favorite

It comes down to money and practice optics. Cleveland can’t cut Watson without absorbing a dead cap hit north of $80 million, and he’s owed $46 million fully guaranteed in 2026. As one Kalshi commenter put it, there are 230 million dollar reasons to play him if he’s healthy.

Then there’s the practice optics. Watson “looks the part” in camp settings, with a livelier arm and more prototypical mechanics than Sanders. Daily reports out of camp shape the narrative for coaches and reporters, and that’s an area where the rookie isn’t going to win.

Head coach Todd Monken has said in an ideal world he’d name a starter at the beginning of camp. Watson is the one likely to run with the 1s when things open up, and that alone is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in this market.

Best Bet: Shedeur Sanders to Start Week 1

• Shedeur Sanders YES (35¢ at Kalshi)

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I get why the market flipped, but +186 on Sanders is a number I can’t pass up.

Sanders finished 2025 as the starter, going 3-4 in seven starts after taking over in Week 12. Watson hasn’t played a snap since Week 7 of the 2024 season, when he tore his right Achilles, then re-ruptured it during recovery, wiping out all of 2025. In four years with the Browns, he’s started just 19 games. His injury history alone makes him a coin flip to make it through camp.

The bigger argument for Sanders is what happens once the lights come on. Practice optics will favor Watson, but Sanders has more “dog” when plays break down. That’s the trait that shows up under preseason pressure, and this competition is going to run deep into August.

The supporting cast helps Sanders’ case too. The Browns used all four of their top picks in 2025 on offensive weapons, revamped the offensive line, and added receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion. Pair that with a top defense, and Cleveland is set up to push for double-digit wins. A mobile rookie raises the offensive ceiling more than a 30-year-old coming off back-to-back Achilles tears.

You’re also getting paid on two paths. Either Sanders outplays Watson in the preseason games, or Watson tweaks something during ramp up. With his medical history, the second one isn’t a long shot. +186 is too good to leave on the board.

The post Browns Starting QB Odds: Is Shedeur Sanders Still the Favorite? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 49ers didn’t like what they saw in the back end of Round 1 of the NFL Draft, ultimately trading down and then out of the top-32 altogether. Day 2 of the Draft will now begin with San Fran on the clock, and prediction markets are taking bets on who that pick will be.

Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is taking the most action to be the selection, followed by Washington wide receiver Denzel Boston. These two have yo-yoed back and forth atop this market all day, with Boston being favored as late as 4 pm ET. Since then, money has come pouring in on McNeil-Warren, and for good reason as I’ll explain.

Keep reading to see the latest NFL Draft Round 2 odds, and my prediction for the first pick at #33 overall.

NFL Draft Round 2 Odds for #33 Pick

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

29%

Denzel Boston

20%

Kayden McDonald

9%

Colton Hood

8%

Chase Bisontis

8%

Zion Young

8%

Treydan Stukes

5%

Cashius Howell

4%

Jermod McCoy

3%

Emanuel Pregnon

3%

Predict

At the time of writing, McNeil-Warren is being given a 29% chance to be the Niners selection by Kalshi. That’s down from his peak of 45% in the wee hours of the morning, and his current 29 cent price is the equivalent of +245 odds in conventional sports betting terms.

Boston meanwhile, is trading at 19 cents in the NFL Draft odds futures market (+426), after seeing his price as high as 41 cents earlier in the day. Texas A&M offensive tackle Chase Bisontis is also in the running to be pick #33, but I’m not convinced San Fran believes his talent is worthy of such a high selection.

NFL Draft Round 2 Prediction for First Pick

• Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (29¢ at Kalshi)

The main reason San Fran traded out of last night’s pick was they felt they missed out on a couple players they were targeting. Word out of Niners camp is they coveted a tackle, but with the best o-line prospects off the board it’s time they turn their attention to another need. Apologies to Denzel Boston, but that’s not a wide receiver.

The 49ers appear more than set at that position. Sure, they’re losing Brandon Aiyuk, who looks like he’s trying to eat himself out of the league, but they made a big splash in free agency to compensate. The Niners gave QB Brock Purdy both Mike Evans and Christian Kirk this offseason to complement former 1st Round pick Ricky Pearsall.

The most glaring hole on San Fran’s roster is at the safety position. Neither starter Ji’Ayir Brown or Malik Mustapha gave them even competent play last season, and the stats bare that out. The Niners defense ranked dead last in success rate. Only a handful of teams allowed a higher EPA per pass, while their run defense was a bottom-12 unit per that metric as well.

San Fran needs a player that can affect the game both on the ground and through the air, and have to be salivating over McNeil-Warren’s upside. He’s being comped to NFL DROY odds Nick Emmanwori, who just helped the Seahawks hoist the Lombardi trophy. Emmanwori’s versatility was a big reason Seattle reigned supreme in the Super Bowl odds, and I bet many teams around the league are looking for their own version of that type of player.

McNeil-Warren is a three-year starter and should be able to hit the ground running. He’s got excellent size and speed, which allows him to defend in the box but also in pass coverage against tight ends and bigger wideouts. San Fran hasn’t had this type of defender since they lost Jimmy Ward, and McNeil-Warren also has a knack for creating turnovers.

He forced 9 fumbles last year for Toldeo and hauled in 5 interceptions. Pair him with new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who has a DB background, and it’s a perfect match.

The post NFL Draft Round 2 Odds – Prediction for First Pick (33rd Overall) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

After an exciting first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, Day 2 is set to begin at 7:00 pm ET in Pittsburgh. Same as yesterday, ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network will broadcast the draft. Today’s events include both Round 2 and Round 3, with 68 picks (32 second-round, 32 third-round picks, and four third-round compensatory picks) being made.

Keep reading for my predictions best bets for Day 2 of the 2026 NFL Draft as well as various odds markets.

NFL Draft Position Odds (Day 2)

Prediction Markets

Draft Position Odds

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Kalshi

Jordyn Tyson: Drafted under 8.5

99%

Akheem Mesidor: Drafted under 25.5

99%

Carnell Tate: Drafted under 7.5

99%

Chris Johnson: Drafted under 33.5

99%

Jeremiyah Love: Drafted under 4.5

99%

KC Concepcion: Drafted under 24.5

99%

Olaivavega Ioane: Drafted under 14.5

99%

Spencer Fano: Drafted under 10.5

99%

Ty Simpson: Drafted under 30.5

99%

David Bailey: Drafted under 5.5

99%

Predict

The teams who currenly hold the #33 through #36 picks have one need in common: high-upside defensive talent. The Cardinals and Raiders need defensive bodies to elevate from the worst defenses in the NFL. The 49ers and Bills could use a big-time difference maker in the middle of the defense to push them closer to a Super Bowl.

Top Draft Position Predictions & Best Bets

• CJ Allen Under 36.5 (49¢ at Kalshi)

The value here is having four bites at the apple. Any team from #33 to #36 could realistically select Allen to fit into their defense. While I am not particualrly confident in any individual team pulling the trigger, I would say any of the four teams has about a 20%-25% chance to take Allen.

• Denzel Boston Over 34.5 (64¢ at Kalshi)

While a trade is a possibility, neither the San Francisco 49ers nor Arizona Cardinals projects as receiver-needy teams. The Cardinals have a healthy corps with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Kendrick Bourne. The 49ers have Mike Evans, Ricky Pearsall, and Christian Kirk. Both teams are in dire need of defensive talent – looking at you, CJ Allen.

Boston is a talented piece who will find a home quickly on Day 2, but that home is unlikely to be San Francisco or Arizona. On Kalshi, Cleveland is the favorite to take Boston, followed by Buffalo, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, and the New York Giants. Barring a trade, any of those teams selecting Boston would satisfying this bet.

Second-Linebacker Drafted Odds

Prediction Markets

2nd LB Odds

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Kalshi

Jacob Rodriguez

62%

CJ Allen

36%

Jake Golday

15%

Anthony Hill Jr.

8%

Josiah Trotter

2%

Sonny Styles

1%

Kyler Louis

1%

Jimmy Rolder

1%

Harold Perkins Jr.

1%

Bryce Boettcher

1%

Predict

Jacob Rodriguez is the favorite to be the second linebacker taken, following Sonny Styles going with the #7 pick (with Arvell Reese counting as an edge defender). However, I am backing the second option in Georgia’s CJ Allen.

Second Linebacker Drafted Pick: CJ Allen (29¢ at Kalshi)

Allen and Rodriguez share a position and second-round value, but they get to this spot in different ways. Allen is an impressive athlete who has room to grow in terms of his understanding of the position. Rodriguez is an advanced processor, but his less-than-elite athleticism could keep him from being an All-Pro in the NFL.

Given the NFL’s desire to have the best athletes as possible, I think Allen is a reasonable pick to be taken ahead of Rodriguez and the rest of the linebackers in this class. As mentioned, I expect Allen to be one of the first four players off the board in the second round.

Third Running Back Drafted Odds

Prediction Markets

3rd RB Odds

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Kalshi

Mike Washington Jr

73%

Jonah Coleman

28%

J'mari Taylor

24%

CJ Donaldson

24%

Roman Hemby

15%

Emmett Johnson

11%

Nick Singleton

10%

Le'Veon Moss

4%

Adam Randall

4%

Rahsul Faison

4%

Predict

Both Notre Dame running backs went off the board in the first round, leaving a wide-open race for the third running back to hear his name called. Mike Washington Jr. and Jonah Coleman are the sizable favorites to be the third running back, but I have an inkling that Emmett Johnson will break through as an underdog.

Third Running Back Drafted Pick: Emmett Johnson (18¢ at Kalshi)

Johnson had an exceptional season for Nebraska. Johnson led the Big Ten in rushing, averaging just shy of 6.0 yards per carry despite being the focal point of the offense, especially after Dylan Raiola went down. Johnson also caught 46 passes and tallied 15 total touchdowns on the season. Among the candidates to be the third running back taken, Johnson is coming off the best season, and he has the least amount of wear of the group.

Team to Draft a Quarterback Odds

Prediction Markets

Which teams will draft a QB?

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Kalshi

Los Angeles R

99%

Las Vegas

90%

Arizona

80%

Pittsburgh

73%

New York J

46%

Miami

41%

Cleveland

40%

Tampa Bay

37%

Buffalo

15%

Denver

15%

Predict

The Cardinals currently have the #34 and #65 picks on Day 2 of the draft. While the Cardinals do need a quarterback, the rest of the team needs a dramatic overhaul before a quarterback can be asked to change the team’s fortunes. While Jacoby Brissett led the Cardinals to a 1-11 record in his starts last year, the real rotten part of Arizona’s team was the defense.

Best Bet to Draft a QB: Arizona Cardinals: No (50¢ at Kalshi)

I am expecting the Cardinals to balance out the luxury pick of Jeremiyah Love with two “meat and potatoes” picks on Day 2. At #34, the Cardinals could take a spine of the defense player, such as the aforementioned CJ Allen, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, or Kayden McDonald. The Cardinals could also be in the market for an offensive lineman such as Emmanuel Pregnon or Caleb Tiernan.

The post NFL Draft Predictions & Best Bets for Day 2 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Following the first round of the NFL Draft, the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds look eerily similar at the top to before any names were called. The only difference now is, we know who some of the top offensive freshmen will be playing for.

Jeremiyah Love, the third selection by the Cardinals, remains the +280 favorite. He’s followed by number-one overall pick Fernando Mendoza of the Raiders, and the fourth selection Carnell Tate of the Titans. Jordyn Tyson, now of the Saints, has the fourth-shortest odds, while Makai Lemon of the Eagles rounds out the top five.

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

The top-five in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds remains exactly the same as before Draft night, price included. Ty Simpson initially boasted the sixth shortest odds at +1200, but his stock plumetted to +3000 after being selected by the Rams. At the other end of the spectrum, Jadarian Price saw his odds cut nearly in half, going from +2500 to +1300 after being taken by the Seahawks.

Outside of Simpson and Price, the only other changes to the top-14 in this NFL Futures market were Mike Washington Jr., and Emmett Johnson seeing their odds lengthened by a few points.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of April 23. Grab the FanDuel promo code before placing any NFL futures bets.

Simpson Real-Life Rise Causes Odds to Crater

Raise your hand if you had Ty Simpson going inside the top-15 picks in the NFL Draft odds? The lone person beating that drum was Todd McShay, and he nailed not only that but the team and exact draft slot. Simpson being drafted to the Rams is one of the best-case scenarios for his football career, but it absolutely craters his chances in this market.

The reason is simple. He’s now the heir apparent to Matthew Stafford who’s not going anywhere in 2026. The reigning NFL MVP is still under contract through the 2026 season and is reportedly working on an extension to finish his career in LA. The only way Simpson is getting on the field and in contention for the OROY award is if Stafford goes down, and that’s not a bet you can wisely make.

Love Is not the Answer

If you bought Love stock in this market before the Draft, seeing him wind up in Arizona has got to be a stomach punch. The Cardinals are a mess offensively, and boast one of the lowest projections in the NFL win totals. Love is going to be on the field a ton so there should be no shortage of opportunity, the problem is he’s not going to have much help around him.

There is no reliable QB in place as Jacoby Brissett is holding out, meaning they could go into the season with Gardner Mindshew as QB 1. As concerning as that is, the offensive line is an even bigger issue. Arizona graded out 26th along the offensive line in 2025, yielding a 39.3% pressure rate, and allowing 19% of the team’s rushes to be stuffed.

The Card ranked 26th in EPA per rush and 28th in rushing touchdowns, and while Love will certainly improve those metrics, it’s hard to win an award when you’re being hit in the backfield on every other run.

The Price Is Right

I’d also fade Mendoza to win OROY as Las Vegas invested significant capital in Kirk Cousins to be their Day 1 starter, and would like the Indiana product to sit for the bulk of the season to learn under the veteran.

No running back has won the offensive rookie of the year since Saquon Barkley in 2018, but allow me to make the case for Price, Love’s teammate at Notre Dame. While Love is going to be saddled with a dysfunctional offense, Price is joining the Super Bowl champions presumably as their lead back.

That honor belonged to Kenneth Walker III before he moved on to KC, and Price will have the opportunity to run behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Price is a Jack of all trades type back, capable of dominating on the ground and through the air. He was also an elite kick returner at Notre Dame, and that type of elusiveness typically carries over well to the NFL game.

Seattle has an uber efficient passing game that keeps opponents on their heels, which will benefit Price greatly. He’ll see fewer heavy boxes than Love, and will be put in much more favorable situations. He scored 15 TD as a backup to Love last year so you know he has a nose for the endzone, and he’s also a more natural runner than his heralded teammate. Given his extremely favorable new destination, he’s a great bet to win OROY at +1300.

The post Updated NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds After NFL Draft appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The first round of the NFL Draft is in the books, and the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds have already shifted. David Bailey’s landing spot in New York pushed him past Rueben Bain Jr. as the new favorite, while several other names saw notable movement based on where they ended up Thursday night in Pittsburgh.

Here’s a look at the updated odds compared to where they stood before the draft, plus the biggest movers and my favorite value play.

Updated DROY Odds After Round 1

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Pre-draft odds as of April 22. Current odds updated after Round 1. Grab the FanDuel promo code before placing any NFL futures bets.

Bailey Takes Over as DROY Favorite

Bailey went from +550 to +440 after the Jets took him at No. 2 overall. He was the most productive pass rusher in the class with 14.5 sacks in 2025, and he’s walking into a New York defense that finished 31st in the NFL in sacks. The opportunity for immediate production is about as good as it gets.

Bain, who was co-favorite before the draft at +550, drifted to +600 after slipping to No. 15. He was a consensus top-10 talent who fell to Tampa Bay, and the later pick cost him the top spot. Caleb Downs moved the other direction, tightening from +650 to +600 after Dallas traded up to grab him at No. 11.

Biggest DROY Odds Movers

The biggest mover on the board is Mansoor Delane, who jumped from +1000 to +750 after the Chiefs traded up from No. 9 to No. 6 to get him. Kansas City gutted their cornerback room this offseason, and Delane should step into a starting role from Week 1.

Jacob Rodriguez (+3500 to +2200) and D’Angelo Ponds (+3000 to +2200) both saw big moves despite not going in Round 1. Their landing spots on Day 2 could push those numbers even further.

On the flip side, Dillon Thieneman drifted from +1200 to +1400 after going No. 25 to the Bears. No safety has won the award since 1990, and that trend is hard to bet against.

DROY Value Bet: Mansoor Delane

• Mansoor Delane (+750 at FanDuel)

The price already shortened from +1000, but Delane at +750 is still the best value on this board. The Chiefs traded up to get him, and you don’t burn draft capital on a guy you plan to redshirt.

He allowed just a 31.3 passer rating when targeted last season at LSU and ran a 4.38 at the combine. Kansas City needs a lockdown corner yesterday, and Delane is that guy.

The last cornerback to win DROY was Sauce Gardner in 2022, who took home 96.8% of the vote after leading the NFL with 20 passes defended. Delane has that kind of ceiling, and the AFC West is loaded with elite receiving talent to test him against every week.

Last 5 Defensive Rookie of the Year Winners

Pass rushers and edge defenders have won five of the last seven DROY awards, which is why Bailey at +440 makes sense as the favorite. But the value at that price is thin. Delane at +750 gives you a first-round corner that the Chiefs traded up to get, in a premier defensive scheme with an immediate starting job. I’d rather bet on that than lay short odds on any edge rusher right now.

These odds will continue to shift through Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday. Check back for updates as more landing spots are finalized and the NFL win totals start to adjust.

The post NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds After Draft: Who’s the New Favorite? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I wonder if the Jets are having as difficult a time deciding between Arvell Reese and David Bailey at pick #2 as prediction markets and online sportsbooks are. The two top defensive players in this year’s Draft have taken turns being the favorite to be New York’s first selection tonight, but now that we sit just a couple hours away from when the pick will be announced it appears there is finally some consensus.

Second-Overall Pick Odds: Bailey vs Reese

Prediction Markets

Who will be #2 pick?

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Kalshi

Arvell Reese

67%

David Bailey

33%

Predict

As of 6:00 pm ET, Reese has firmly established himself as the favorite to go second in the NFL Draft odds. At the time of writing, he’s trading at 69 cents at Kalshi to be selected at pick #2, which is the equivalent of -233 odds in traditional sports-betting terms. Bailey, meanwhile, comes back trading at 33 cents to go second (+203 odds), and those prices are in line with the markets that commercial sportsbooks have set.

A month ago, Reese was an overwhelming favorite to be pick #2, but things started to change just over a week ago. That’s when Bailey surged ahead of him, but his reign as the favorite at the time was short lived.

Personally, I thought the discussion was put to bet until Bailey reassumed chalk status yesterday. Since then, Reese and Bailey have yo-yoed back and forth atop this NFL Futures category, with the Ohio State product seizing back top spot around 4pm today for what appears to be for good.

Jets #2 Pick Best Bet

• Arvell Reese (69¢ at Kalshi)

When it comes to these two mega talents, there is no wrong answer. Both profile as difference makers at the next level, with each possessing the single trait New York covets the most. The ability to rush the passer. Bailey is the more proven commodity, but Reese offers a higher ceiling. Like myself, our final NFL Mock Draft is siding with Reese, but if history is any indication there’s a good chance the Jets will mess this up.

Last 10 NYJ First-Round Draft Picks

Dating back to 2019, New York has made 10 First Round draft picks. Of those 10, only four are still on the roster, and only one (Garrett Wilson) earned a second contract with the team. With so many whiffs near the top of the board, it’s no wonder why the Jets are routinely one the biggest longshots in the Super Bowl odds.

As for why Reese is the deserving favorite to be pick #2 consider the following. The Ohio State star has the ability to affect the game on many different levels. Bailey is a pure pass rushing stud, and while New York wants to improve on its 31st ranked sack total, Reese can do it all.

He’s got incredible burst as a pass rusher, and can line up all over the formation. He can play either as an edge or an outside linebacker, and is drawing comparisons to Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player in football. Reese is elite in run defense and his superior speed and athleticism over Bailey allows him to drop back comfortably in coverage.

The Jets also hosted Reese for a top-30 visit a few weeks ago, and promptly cancelled their in person visit with Bailey. It seems far fetched that you wouldn’t want to bring the future cornerstone of your defense into the building to size him up in person.

New York’s linebacker room is incredibly thin, and head coach Aaron Glenn has stated he wants to be more physical on all three levels. Reese’s versatility will spread toughness across both the first and second level of the defense, ultimately making him the best fit.

The post Who Will the Jets Draft at #2? Final Odds on Bailey vs Reese Battle appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two weeks ago, the idea of Mike Vrabel getting fired before the 2026 NFL season was a joke. The guy just dragged the Patriots from 4-13 to a Super Bowl appearance in his first year on the job and took home Coach of the Year for his trouble. After a second round of bombshell photos dropped Thursday morning, the Kalshi market isn’t so sure anymore.

The “Pro Football Coaches Out Before September” market now has Vrabel trading at 41 cents on Yes, good for a 40% implied probability. That’s up seven points in a day, with total volume climbing to $396,432 and money still flowing in.

Mike Vrabel Fired Odds on Kalshi

A 41-cent Yes works out to +144 in traditional betting terms, while the No side at 60 cents converts to -150. This is a fluid market that can swing in a hurry, and it already has.

The seven-point jump on Yes came in the hours after the new photos dropped, and that kind of sharp Kalshi movement on a head coach market doesn’t happen without real news behind it.

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Odds as of April 23 at Kalshi. New users can grab the Kalshi referral code before betting on the market.

How the Vrabel-Russini Story Got Here

For anyone just catching up, Page Six published photos on April 7 of Vrabel and then-Athletic NFL reporter Dianna Russini at an adults-only resort in Sedona, Arizona. Both are married to other people.

Russini resigned from The Athletic a week later while the outlet’s investigation into her reporting was still open. Vrabel kept his job and the NFL announced it wouldn’t investigate him under the personal conduct policy.

That was supposed to be the end of it. Then on Thursday morning, a second batch of photos surfaced that changes the whole story, and Vrabel’s odds to be fired before September have jumped on Kalshi as a result.

New 2020 Photos Blow Up Vrabel’s Defense

Page Six published a new batch of photos on Thursday morning showing Vrabel and Russini at the Tribeca Tavern in New York City back on March 11, 2020. Vrabel was the Titans head coach at that point. Russini was covering the NFL for ESPN.

The images show the two holding hands, sitting with their knees pressed together, and in one photo, appearing to kiss. Vrabel was wearing his wedding ring. A witness at the bar told Page Six the two were “all over each other” and exchanging “a bunch of pecks.”

That’s a six-year-old relationship, which blows up the “innocent interaction” defense Vrabel gave when the Arizona resort photos came out earlier this month. It also raises fresh questions about Russini’s NFL coverage of Vrabel’s Titans tenure from 2018 to 2023 while she was at ESPN, and that’s what actually matters for the fired odds market.

Why Vrabel Is Still Favored to Keep His Job

Even with the spike, the No side is still the favorite at 60 cents, and I understand why. Vrabel won NFL Coach of the Year after going 14-3. He just took New England to a Super Bowl. Robert Kraft reportedly hired a crisis strategist to try to kill the original Page Six story before it ran.

That’s not the behavior of an owner lining up a firing. Kraft already burned through Jerod Mayo after one season last year. Canning Vrabel after a Super Bowl run would make it three head coaches in three years, and that’s just not a road Kraft will walk down.

There’s also the fact that the personal conduct policy doesn’t cover adultery. I can’t name a single head coach in modern NFL history who got fired for cheating on his wife. If Vrabel had been involved with someone inside the building, different story. Russini doesn’t work for the Patriots.

The Case for Buying Yes on Vrabel Getting Fired

There’s one thing that could flip this market, and it’s not the affair itself. It’s the leaks. If the investigation into Russini’s reporting turns up evidence that Vrabel was feeding her inside information while he was with the Titans, the conversation shifts. That’s the kind of thing that can actually get a coach pushed out.

Vrabel also announced on Wednesday that he’s skipping Day 3 of the draft to start counseling. Page Six reportedly reached out for comment on the new photos that same afternoon. He knew what was coming.

I’m not buying Yes at 41 cents, though. A head coach coming off 14-3 in New England, with this owner, doesn’t get fired before September over what’s publicly come out so far. The personal conduct policy doesn’t cover adultery. The NFL has already said it won’t open an investigation. Unless something concrete comes to light, Kraft should ride this out.

If the Vrabel fired odds creep closer to 50 cents on more fallout, that’s when buying No becomes a real value play on Kalshi. For now, it’s a sit-and-watch for me. The story has legs, and the next shoe could drop at any time.

The post Odds Mike Vrabel Fired Before 2026 NFL Season Spike After New Photos appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

At long last, the 2026 NFL Draft is here. With 257 players about to find NFL homes, there are a slew of betting markets to milk value from. While the #1 pick is almost certainly going to be Fernando Mendoza heading to Las Vegas, intrigue begins with the #2 pick, currently held by the New York Jets. Beyond the Jets, chaos will follow.

Pittsburgh will host the three-day event, with Round 1 beginning at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday night. ESPN, ABC, and NFL Network will televise the selections.

Keep reading for my four best NFL Draft value bets, as well as the odds for various markets to monitor tonight, Friday, and Saturday.

O/U Draft Position Pick: Jordyn Tyson Over 8.5

Prediction Markets

Jordyn Tyson O/U Draft Position

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Kalshi

Jordyn Tyson: Drafted Over 8.5

37%

Predict

Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has a 63% chance to go in the top eight picks of the 2026 NFL Draft, but I am fading these odds. After the top four teams, there is a run of potential suitors, but the Giants, Browns, Commanders, and Saints not only have other needs than wide receiver, but Tyson is likely the second receiver off the board behind Carnell Tate.

Tyson is incredibly talented, but he has an extensive injury history for his entire collegiate career. He missed most of the 2023 season with a knee injury, and he missed Arizona State’s Big 12 Title game and CFP appearances in 2024. In 2025, he was in and out of the lineup. With other safer options in the top eight, I expect Tyson to slide into the middle of the first round.

Best Bet

First Wide Receiver Drafted Pick: Carnell Tate

Prediction Markets

First WR Drafted Odds

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Kalshi

Carnell Tate

50%

Predict

Keeping with the Tyson theme, I expect Ohio State’s Carnell Tate to be the first receiver off the board on Thursday night. As mentioned, the first four teams are unlikely to take a wide receiver, but Tate’s range begins at #5 with the Giants. Tate would be a natural fit for the Giants, slotting in as the #2 wide receiver once Malik Nabers returns from injury.

At #6, the Browns could opt to keep Tate in the state of Ohio as their top wide receiver. On Kalshi, the Browns have a 29% chance to take Tate, narrowly edging out Washington (28%) and New Orleans (18%). Tyson, meanwhile, is favored to go to the Giants (50%). However, much of that handle is based on the Giants holding the #10 pick in the draft.

By Kalshi’s draft position odds, this is also a reasonable bet as Tate’s position is set at 7.5 while Tyson’s is set at 8.5.

Best Bet: Carnell Tate as 1st Receiver Taken (Yes – 50¢)

Team to Draft Olaivavega Ioane: BAL Ravens

Prediction Markets

Team to Draft Olaivavega Odds

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Kalshi

Baltimore

39%

Predict

The top guard in the class, Olaivavega Ioane is favored to be heading to Baltimore with a 41% chance on Kalshi. The Giants sit in second place with a 27% chance. The Chargers and Dolphins are at 13%, while the Steelers round out the top five with a 9% chance to keep Ioane in the state of Pennsylvania.

Baltimore currently holds the #14 pick in the NFL Draft. While they have enough draft ammo to move up, the Ravens generally operate on a “let the value fall to you” process on draft day. Ioane is the top interior offensive lineman in the class, a position of desperate need for Baltimore. On Kalshi, Baltimore has a 69% chance to draft an offensive lineman with its first pick, dwarfing wide receiver and tight end among other positions.

Best Bets: Ravens Draft Ioane (40¢), Ioane to be the #14 Pick (28¢)

Odds to Go in the 1st Round

Prediction Markets

First-round Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Jermod McCoy

51%

Predict

For this prop, the value usually comes from the bottom of the round, taking shots on players to be one of the last few picks. In 2026, this includes players such as Cashius Howell (23%), Jadarian Price (18%), and Brandon Cisse (16%). However, I find tremendous value in Jermod McCoy being listed as a toss-up to be a first-round pick (49%).

McCoy missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from an ACL injury. However, he has been a mainstay in the top half of mock drafts the entire process. Even with the injury and the usual tumult of the draft order, McCoy is practically a toss-up with LSU’s Mansoor Delane to be the first cornerback taken and the second defensive back off the board (after safety Caleb Downs).

On Kalshi, McCoy’s over/under line is set at 25.5, a line I find highly questionable. At worst, McCoy is the second-best cornerback in the draft (Delane), and cornerback is among the most valuable positions. The window for McCoy begins with the Dolphins at #11 and heats up with the likes of the Jets (#16) and Cowboys (#20). Even if McCoy were to slip to the end of the round, teams such as Kansas City (#29), Miami (#30), and Seattle (#32) would be reasonable picks to cash this bet.

Best Bets: Jermod McCoy is a first-round pick (51¢), Under 25.5 (29¢)

The post Final NFL Draft Predictions – Best Value Bets for First Round appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2026 NFL Draft is now just hours away. Scheduled to start at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday night at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA, the NFL Draft odds are seeing significant movement on the morning of draft day, as they’re wont to do.

This is the first year that prediction site Kalshi has offered a massive slate of NFL Draft odds, including markets on each of the first 16 picks (i.e. the first half of the first round). In the sections below, I have set out the current top 5 to 10 favorites at Kalshi, while noting where the Kalshi favorite diverges from Matt McEwan’s final NFL Mock Draft, which is based entirely on betting odds from online sportsbooks.

Jump to: #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | #15 | #16

#1 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (LV Raiders)

Prediction Markets

Final #1 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Fernando Mendoza

99%

Arch Manning

1%

Garrett Nussmeier

1%

LaNorris Sellers

1%

Drew Allar

1%

Predict

Click “Predict” in any of the graphics on this page to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code.

The Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock. If Fernando Mendoza isn’t the #1 pick, it will be the biggest draft-day surprise in NFL history.

#2 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Jets)

Prediction Markets

Final #2 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

David Bailey

54%

Arvell Reese

45%

Jeremiyah Love

2%

Fernando Mendoza

1%

Francis Mauigoa

1%

Predict

Both the Kalshi odds and sportsbook prices favor edge rusher David Bailey going #2 to the Jets, though fellow edge rusher Arvell Reese is a close second-favorite.

#3 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (ARI Cardinals)

Prediction Markets

Final #3 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Arvell Reese

35%

Jeremiyah Love

35%

David Bailey

22%

Sonny Styles

6%

Francis Mauigoa

4%

Predict

The odds to be the #3 picks are extremely tight. Kalshi traders give edge rusher Arvell Reese a slight edge over running back Jeremiyah Love.

The odds-based mock draft also has Reese third overall to the Cardinals.

#4 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (TEN Titans)

Prediction Markets

Final #4 Picks Odds

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Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love

35%

Sonny Styles

33%

Arvell Reese

14%

David Bailey

8%

Carnell Tate

4%

Predict

The #4 pick odds are even closer than the #3 pick; as of 1:00 pm ET, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Sonny Styles were in a dead-heat at Kalshi.

The odds-based mock draft has Love at #4.

#5 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Giants)

Prediction Markets

Final #5 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Jordyn Tyson

24%

Caleb Downs

24%

Sonny Styles

22%

Jeremiyah Love

17%

Arvell Reese

9%

Francis Mauigoa

5%

Predict

The #5 pick is the first where the Kalshi prices and the odds-based mock draft differ. Kalshi traders have safety Caleb Downs as the modest chalk. Sportsbooks favor linebacker Sonny Styles.

#6 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (CLE Browns)

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Final #6 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Spencer Fano

23%

Carnell Tate

19%

Francis Mauigoa

14%

Makai Lemon

12%

Jordyn Tyson

11%

Olaivavega Ioane

8%

Predict

The #6 pick odds are another hyper-tight market at Kalshi. OL Spencer Fano is trading at 22¢, just ahead of WR Carnell Tate.

The odds-based mock draft goes in a different direction with WR Jordyn Tyson at #6.

#7 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (WSH Commanders)

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Final #7 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Carnell Tate

24%

Sonny Styles

23%

Jordyn Tyson

15%

Mansoor Delane

11%

Jeremiyah Love

10%

Caleb Downs

8%

Predict

There is a clear top-two in the #7 pick odds: WR Carnell Tate (26¢) and linebacker Sonny Styles (22¢).

Sportsbook lines lean to safety Caleb Downs at #7.

#8 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NO Saints)

Prediction Markets

Final #8 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love

37%

Jordyn Tyson

21%

Carnell Tate

17%

Caleb Downs

15%

Rueben Bain Jr.

13%

Mansoor Delane

13%

Kayden McDonald

13%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Makai Lemon

8%

Ty Simpson

7%

Predict

WR Jordyn Tyson is the top pick to go #8 to the Saints at Kalshi, trading at 28¢ and trending up.

Sportsbooks also favor the Saints taking a WR but those odds lean to Carnell Tate.

#9 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (KC Chiefs)

Prediction Markets

Final #9 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Mansoor Delane

22%

Rueben Bain Jr.

21%

Monroe Freeling

15%

David Bailey

14%

Francis Mauigoa

12%

Spencer Fano

12%

Jordyn Tyson

9%

Caleb Downs

8%

Carnell Tate

5%

Makai Lemon

5%

Predict

The #9 pick prices at Kalshi slightly favor cornerback Mansoor Delane (21¢) over edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr (20¢).

The odds-based mock draft has KC going with OL Francis Mauigoa.

#10 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Giants)

Prediction Markets

Final #10 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Caleb Downs

22%

Jordyn Tyson

17%

Mansoor Delane

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

13%

Francis Mauigoa

11%

Jeremiyah Love

11%

Makai Lemon

10%

Carnell Tate

8%

Spencer Fano

6%

Sonny Styles

6%

Predict

Also the slight favorite to be the #5 pick, Caleb Downs is heavier chalk to go #10 to the Giants. Downs is trading at 22¢, well ahead of WR Jordyn Tyson at 17¢.

The odds-based mock draft has the Giants going with OL Spencer Fano. New York acquired this pick from the Bengals in exchange for edge rusher Dexter Lawrence.

#11 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (MIA Dolphins)

Prediction Markets

Final #11 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Rueben Bain Jr.

25%

Mansoor Delane

15%

Jermod McCoy

13%

Spencer Fano

12%

Makai Lemon

11%

Kenyon Sadiq

10%

Caleb Banks

10%

Kadyn Proctor

9%

Francis Mauigoa

9%

Caleb Downs

8%

Predict

The #11 pick odds are currently a two-horse race between edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr (23¢) and OL Francis Mauigoa (22¢).

The odds-based mock draft has corner Mansoor Delane going 11th to the Dolphins.

#12 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (DAL Cowboys)

Prediction Markets

Final #12 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Mansoor Delane

23%

Akheem Mesidor

17%

Keldric Faulk

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

15%

Caleb Downs

14%

Rueben Bain Jr.

14%

Jermod McCoy

11%

Dillon Thieneman

10%

Jordyn Tyson

9%

Monroe Freeling

8%

Predict

The #12 pick prices lean to Dallas taking Mansoor Delane, who’s trading at 21¢. Second-favorite Rueben Bain Jr is at 16¢.

The odds-based mock draft has Bain as the chalk.

#13 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (LA Rams)

Prediction Markets

Final #13 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Makai Lemon

51%

Ty Simpson

33%

Olaivavega Ioane

17%

Omar Cooper Jr.

17%

Spencer Fano

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

16%

Monroe Freeling

16%

Dillon Thieneman

16%

Jordyn Tyson

15%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Predict

There’s heavy consensus on the #13 pick: both Kalshi and the odds-based mock draft have the Rams taking WR Makai Lemon. The USC product is trading at a relatively short 36¢ at Kalshi.

#14 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (BAL Ravens)

Prediction Markets

Final #14 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Olaivavega Ioane

35%

Dillon Thieneman

19%

Kenyon Sadiq

18%

Spencer Fano

16%

Denzel Boston

11%

Makai Lemon

10%

Rueben Bain Jr.

10%

Francis Mauigoa

10%

Peter Woods

9%

Monroe Freeling

9%

Predict

The #14 pick odds have a surprisingly heavy favorite for a position this far down the board. The Ravens are widely expected to draft OL Olaivavega Ioane. The odds-based mock draft also has the Penn State guard at #14 to Baltimore.

#15 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (TB Buccaneers)

Prediction Markets

Final #15 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Akheem Mesidor

40%

R Mason Thomas

37%

Monroe Freeling

16%

Kenyon Sadiq

15%

Jermod McCoy

14%

Keldric Faulk

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

11%

Blake Miller

10%

Kadyn Proctor

10%

Malachi Lawrence

9%

Predict

Kalshi traders favor Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor going to the Buccaneers at #15. Sportsbooks have tight end Kenyon Sadiq at #15.

#16 Pick Odds & Betting Favorites (NY Jets)

Prediction Markets

Final #16 Pick Odds

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Kalshi

Sonny Styles

99%

Makai Lemon

16%

Omar Cooper Jr.

15%

Jermod McCoy

13%

Ty Simpson

13%

Olaivavega Ioane

13%

Caleb Downs

10%

Denzel Boston

10%

Avieon Terrell

10%

Kenyon Sadiq

10%

Predict

Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr has become a massive favorite to go to the Jets with the #16 pick. New York acquired the #16 pick from the Colts.

The odds at sportsbooks give the edge to offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor.

The post NFL Draft Odds – Betting Favorites for Each of the Top 16 Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2025 NFL season was forgettable for the Arizona Cardinals, who slumped to a 3-14 record. After a 2-0 start, Arizona lost all but one game the rest of the way, finishing a distant last place in an NFC West division that sent three teams to the playoffs. With a putrid record in the rearview mirror, the Cardinals have the #3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The 2026 NFL Draft is slated to begin at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, April 23. Pittsburgh will host all three days of the draft. Round 1 will be Thursday. Rounds 2 and 3 will be held Friday, April 24. The final four rounds will be held on Saturday, April 25. ABC, ESPN, and NFL Network will cover the draft.

Keep reading for a breakdown on the top prospects who the Arizona Cardinals could take with the #3 pick.

Cardinals First Draft Pick Odds

Prediction Markets

NFL Draft #3 Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Arvell Reese

50%

David Bailey

33%

Jeremiyah Love

20%

Francis Mauigoa

7%

Spencer Fano

3%

Rueben Bain Jr.

2%

Carnell Tate

2%

Sonny Styles

2%

Ty Simpson

2%

Fernando Mendoza

1%

Predict

Based on Kalshi’s odds, Arvell Reese is the favorite to go to the Cardinals with the #3 pick, listed with a 33% probability (equivalent to +203 odds). Behind Reese is fellow defender David Bailey at 25% (equivalent to +300 odds). Based on Matt McEwan’s odds-based mock draft, Bailey is the best bet to head to the desert with the No. 3 pick.

The highest-probability offensive player is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at 23% (equivalent to +335 odds). Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa rounds out the top four with a 10% chance (equivalent to +900 odds).

Who Will Be Off the Board When Arizona Picks #3?

While the Cardinals could opt to trade the #3 pick, they are likely to stand pat and select a player.

#1 Pick

The Las Vegas Raiders have the #1 pick, and they are overwhelmingly likely to select Indiana quarterback and Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza. In NFL Draft Odds, Mendoza has a 99% chance to be taken with the top pick. With this in mind, Mendoza is listed with a less than 1% chance to be taken with the #3 pick.

#2 Pick

The New York Jets hold the #2 pick, one of two first-round selections for the Jets. As of Tuesday night, Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey has a 60% chance to be the #2 pick according to Kalshi. The only other player with a likelihood above 1% is Ohio State hybrid linebacker Arvell Reese.

With Mendoza’s selection essentially locked, the Jets will determine which top-tier pass rusher will fall to Arizona at the #3 pick.

Offensive Names to Watch

All percentages are accurate as of 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, April 21.

Jeremiyah Love, 23%

A two-time 1,000-yard rusher at Notre Dame, Love finished third in 2025 Heisman voting after recording 1,652 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. Love is an advanced pass catcher in addition to his elite profile as a runner. In three years in South Bend, Love accrued 2,882 rushing yards and 36 rushing touchdowns.

Francis Mauigoa, 10%

Miami’s right tackle on its path to the CFP Title Game, Mauigoa is widely regarded as the top offensive tackle in the 2026 NFL Draft. Mauigoa played over 2,800 snaps over three seasons with the Hurricanes. The 6-foot-6 Mauigoa has a balanced profile, projecting to be an above-average pass protector and run blocker.

Carnell Tate, 3%

Yet another elite Ohio State wide receiver, Carnell Tate tallied 875 yards and nine receiving touchdowns as the No. 2 receiver for the Buckeyes (behind Jeremiah Smith). In three seasons, Tate posted 121 catches for 1,872 yards and 14 touchdowns. The former five-star recruit is a ball magnet, using his 6-foot-3 frame to box out defensive backs.

Spencer Fano, 3%

Experienced at both left tackle and right tackle, Fano is a stellar athlete. Fano spent the last two seasons at right tackle for one of the country’s top offensive lines in Utah. He tallied over 1,600 right tackle snaps and 500 left tackle snaps in three seasons. Fano can be beaten with a quality bull rush, but he has exceptional hands to parry pass rushers.

Ty Simpson, 2%

Likely to be the second quarterback off the board on Thursday night, Ty Simpson was a one-year starter for Alabama. He threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns, leading the Crimson Tide to the CFP Quarterfinals. He was second in the SEC in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Defensive Names to Watch

All percentages are accurate as of 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, April 21.

Arvell Reese, 33%

A linebacker at Ohio State, Reese is slated for the Micah Parsons track at the NFL level. In other words, Reese will likely be an off-ball linebacker who moonlights as a pass rusher early in his career before transitioning to being a pure edge rusher as his rookie deal goes along. Reese had 6.5 sacks and was an All-American in 2025.

David Bailey, 25%

The NCAA’s leader in sacks in 2025, David Bailey had a massive breakout season for a CFP-bound Texas Tech squad. A Stanford transfer, Bailey recorded 19.5 tackles for a loss and 14.5 sacks in his senior season. Unlike Reese, Bailey is a true pass rusher from Day 1 even if his athletic upside is not quite as high as Reese.

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The post NFL #3 Pick Odds – Are Cardinals Favored to Go Offense or Defense Third Overall? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

FanDuel has launched its 2026 Defensive Rookie of the Year odds ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. The NFL Draft will begin on Thursday, April 23 at 8:00 pm ET in Pittsburgh. Day 2 (Rounds 2 and 3) will commence at 7:00 pm ET on Friday, April 24. Day 3 (Rounds 4 through 7) will start at noon ET on Saturday, April 25.

Last season, Carson Schwesinger of the Browns won Defensive Rookie of the Year, the first non-Day 1 pick to win the award since 2018. Every Defensive Rookie of the Year since 1988 has been a top-40 pick, with Erik McMillan (63rd pick) being the last exception. In terms of late-round picks, Al Richardson won the 1980 Defensive Rookie of the Year after going in the 8th round (201st overall).

Continue reading for the top 25 Defensive Rookie of the Year odds as well as three value bets – both good value and bad value bets.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Miami pass rusher Rueben Bain leads the way with +550 odds. A trio of Buckeyes follows Bain in Sonny Styles (+650), Caleb Downs (+650), and Arvell Reese (+700). Cornerback Mansoor Delane rounds out the top five with +1000 odds.

By position, the leaders are edge rusher Bain (+550), linebacker Styles (+650), safety Downs (+650), and cornerback Delane (+1000). No interior defensive lineman is in the top 25 of odds, but Kayden McDonald and Peter Woods could be had for +10000 odds.

All odds are from FanDuel as of Wednesday, April 22 at 6:30 pm ET.

Best DROY Value Picks

Akheem Mesidor, +2200

A six-year collegiate player, Mesidor is the highest-floor pass rusher in the class. Given the slant towards stats-accruing pass rushers in Defensive Rookie of the Year history, Mesidor is the best bet to hit the ground running as a solid player.

In college, Mesidor had 35.5 sacks in 65 games. He led the ACC with 12.5 sacks last season, recording four forced fumbles.

Keionte Scott, +6000

Admittedly, picking a non-edge to win DROY is often a fruitless endeavor, but Scott is the archetype to post gaudy numbers. He is a willing run defender and a tremendous blitzer. In 2025, Scott forced four turnovers, including two pick-sixes. He had 5.0 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss.

Scott played three years at Auburn and one year at Miami. In his collegiate career, he recorded 19 tackles for a loss, 6.0 sacks, three interceptions, and two forced fumbles. In 2025, he tied for the NCAA lead with a pair of pick-sixes.

Cashius Howell, +7500

Similar to Mesidor, Howell is quite experienced. Howell played 56 games across five years, playing three seasons at Bowling Green and two seasons at Texas A&M. Howell led the MAC in sacks in 2023 before transferring to College Station.

An All-American in 2025, Howell won the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. He posted 11.5 sacks and 14 tackles for a loss. Howell even deflected six passes, bringing his college total to 15 over five seasons.

Worst DROY Value Picks

Caleb Downs, +650

In the draft process, Downs has often been compared to Derwin James and Kyle Hamilton, two elite safeties who came to the NFL and made immediate impacts. James was named to the All-Pro team as a rookie while Hamilton helped turn a bottom-half defense into the No. 3 scoring defense in the NFL. Neither James nor Hamilton won Defensive Rookie of the Year.

In fact, no safety has won Defensive Rookie of the Year since 1990. This is not a bet against Downs the player – he is perhaps the likeliest player in the entire draft to be an All-Pro – moreso the position that he plays. As good as Downs is, he is also more of the “avoid mistakes” archetype of player than a “playmaker” type. Avoiding mistakes will help Downs’ team win, but it is unlikely to sway voters.

Jermod McCoy, +2500

McCoy missed the entire 2025 season after tearing his ACL in January. While he has the prospect pedigree to still be a first-round pick even after missing a season, it seems logical that McCoy’s NFL team won’t push the rookie off an injury. For a recent example, Shavon Revel missed most of the 2024 season with an ACL injury ahead of being drafted in 2025. He only played seven games for the Cowboys in 2025.

Like Downs, this is not a bet against the prospect, it is a bet against the situation that prospect is in.

Malachi Lawrence, +2700

In four years at UCF, Lawrence was a steady presence more than an elite presence. He had 28 tackles for a loss and 20 sacks. He only finished in the top four in his conference in sacks or tackles for a loss once, finishing fourth in sacks in 2023. Lawrence also forced only three fumbles in 39 collegiate games.

Defensive Rookie of the Year is a numbers award. I am unsure that Lawrence will put up the necessary numbers to be a serious candidate.

Last Five Defensive Rookie of the Year Winners

Carson Schwesinger broke a Defensive Rookie of the Year monopoly with his win as a pure linebacker. Of the last seven awards, pass rushers have won five times. Schwesinger finished in the top 10 in the NFL in total tackles. He also had two interceptions and 2.5 sacks before an above-average Browns defense. Schwesinger won 88.2% of the vote, beating out the likes of Nick Emmanwori, James Pearce, and Xavier Watts.

Jared Verse had a modest sack total, but he generated a gargantuan amount of pressure as a rookie. He took home 36 first-place votes, quadrupling Quinyon Mitchell’s tally. In 2023, Will Anderson won a split vote, narrowly beating Jalen Carter and Kobie Turner despite winning just 16 of 50 first-place votes.

Sauce Gardner, the last cornerback to win DROY, romped to a 46-3-1 win over Aidan Hutchinson and Riq Woolen, securing 96.8% of the voting share. Gardner had two interceptions and an NFL-leading 20 passes defended.

A safety has not won Defensive Rookie of the Year since 1990, when Chicago’s Mark Carrier beat James Francis and Junior Seau to the award. Carrier unbelievably led the NFL with 10 interceptions and five forced fumbles, earning a Pro Bowl nod and a second-team All-Pro selection.

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The 2026 NFL Draft will begin in earnest in Thursday, April 23 at 8:00 pm ET when the Las Vegas Raiders select Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. After Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson is overwhelmingly likely to be the next quarterback off the board in NFL Draft odds. Beyond Simpson, however, there is intrigue.

Keep reading for a quick glance at the five most likely candidates to be the third quarterback drafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Third Quarterback Drafted Odds (2026)

Prediction Markets

Third QB Favorites

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Haynes King

99%

Garrett Nussmeier

51%

Drew Allar

46%

Carson Beck

40%

Cole Payton

32%

Ty Simpson

24%

Taylen Green

8%

Diego Pavia

4%

Cade Klubnik

1%

Luke Altmyer

1%

Predict

Miami’s Carson Beck leads the way in odds here with a 47% chance to be the third quarterback off the board. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is a close second, representing a 41% chance. Other notables include North Dakota State’s Cole Payton and Penn State’s Drew Allar who are at 12% and 8% respectively. Diego Pavia rounds out the top five with a 1% chance.

Both Ty Simpson and Fernando Mendoza are available to be bet on, but they both have less than 1% chances to go in this slot. Mendoza is a mortal lock to be the #1 pick while Simpson is likely to go at some point in the first round. Matt McEwan has Simpson going in the first round in his odds-based 2026 NFL Mock Draft.

Drew Allar, 8%

Allar played four years at Penn State, serving as the team’s primary starter in 2023 and 2024 before sustaining a midseason injury in a disastrous 2025 season. In Happy Valley, Allar threw for 7,402 yards and 61 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions. He also tacked on 12 rushing touchdowns, totaling 59 touchdowns in his two full years as a starter.

Allar looks like a prototypical quarterback, but his play has yet to match the tools. He has big game experience, leading the 2024 Nittany Lions to the CFP Semifinals, but he did not throw a touchdown in either of Penn State’s CFP games against Power 4 opponents.

Carson Beck, 47%

Beck played in 55 games across six collegiate seasons. He was a two-year starter at Georgia before transferring to Miami. At 6-foot-4, Beck checks off size and athleticism boxes, but his main concern is his decision-making. Beck fired 32 interceptions, including 12 in both 2024 and 2025. As poised as Beck was throughout Miami’s run to the CFP Final, the lasting image will be Beck throwing a season-ending interception.

Beck gets a massive checkmark in the experience department. He threw for over 11,700 yards in college and tossed 88 touchdowns. He won’t set any athleticism records, but he did have eight scrimmage touchdowns in college, including the game-winning touchdown in the CFP Semifinal against Ole Miss.

Garrett Nussmeier, 41%

A huge breakout in 2024, Nussmeier opted to return to school and aim to be the #1 pick. Unfortunately for Nussmeier and LSU, 2025 was a trying season that saw Brian Kelly lose his job. Nussmeier’s yardage and touchdown tallies were chopped in half as the senior only played nine games.

Son of Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, Nussmeier is cerebrally excellent in his understanding of the game. However, he does not have the prototypical size or athleticism that the likes of Allar and Beck have. Nussmeier can be turnover prone – he tied Beck for the SEC lead in interceptions in 2024.

Cole Payton, 12%

The great unknown of the quarterback class, Payton was a one-year starter at North Dakota State. In 2025, threw for 2,719 yards and 16 touchdowns on just 225 attempts. He has rushing upside, both as a short-yardage threat and as a true runner. He tallied over 1,500 rushing yards and 30 rushing touchdowns for the Bison in his career.

By far the least experienced of the contenders to be the third quarterback taken, Payton’s lack of experience reared its disastrous head in North Dakota State’s upset loss to Illinois State in the FCS Playoffs. Payton was held under 100 total yards. He is a great athlete, but he needs some seasoning as a passer.

Diego Pavia, 1%

On the other side of the coin, Pavia is not an NFL-caliber quarterback, athletically speaking, but he had enough moxie to impress Johnny Manziel. The runner-up to Mendoza in Heisman voting, Pavia led the SEC in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, yards per pass, and passing efficiency in 2025. Pavia was Offensive Player of the Year both in Conference-USA (in 2023 with New Mexico State) and SEC (in 2025 with Vanderbilt).

Pavia is likely destined to be a Day 3 pick or a priority free agent, but it would only take one team to fall in love with Pavia’s passion and playmaking for him to be the third quarterback off the board. He is also a culture changer and one of the best underdog stories in recent college football history.

Percentages are from Kalshi as of Wednesday, April 22, at 10:30 pm ET.

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Is Ty Simpson really a First Round NFL Draft pick? Your eyes might say no, but the market is currently saying yes. Simpson is currently a -320 favorite to taken in the first 32 picks, and is the key to the question will there be over or under 1.5 QB’s taken in the First Round?

That bet is currently drawing a ton of action at online sportsbooks, so keep reading to see the latest odds and my best bets in this NFL Draft market.

Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round Odds

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As of Wednesday afternoon, over 1.5 QB’s taken in the First Round is priced at -150, with the under coming back at +150 at BetMGM. The sportsbooks is currently reporting that 57% of the tickets are on the under, but a whopping 80% of the money is on the over. That’s a good indication that professional money is backing over 1.5, and it’s never a terrible idea to be on the same side as the sharps.

Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round Best Bets

• Over 1.5 QBs in First Round (-150 at BetMGM)

There are a few reasons to believe Simpson will go in the first 32 picks in the NFL Draft odds, but few have anything to do with his play on the field.

Simpson has told anyone who will listen that he’ll be in the Green Room in Pittsburgh on Thursday night, so there is an excellent chance one or multiple teams have told him he’ll be their guy if he’s available. The Alabama product is a sizeable -270 favorite to go over his 24.5 position draft prop, and given the teams picking between 25 and 30, the most likely scenario is that someone might trade back into the First Round to snatch him.

Ty Simpson Draft Position

QB desperate teams like Arizona and the Jets make the most sense, and with New York holding multiple First round picks, they could easily trade down if they don’t see anything they like at pick 16. There’s also been some buzz that the Rams are enamoured with Simpson, but given they pick at 13, they’d likely try to either trade back from that spot or sneak back into the opening round late.

The big reason why it’s advantageous to take a QB in the First Round is the 5th year of eligibility teams get on their rookie contract. That gives them ultimate cap flexibility for one extra year, but how often have these Late First Round quarterbacks actually panned out?

Let’s throw out the 2025 Draft since the jury is still out on Jaxon Dart. Between 2009 and 2024, 11 QB’s were drafted in the back half of the First Round. Of those 11, only Jordan Love has been a multi-year starter, and only 5 of the 11 even got a second NFL contract.

Ty Simpson to be Drafted in First Round

To be fair to Simpson, he is a much better prospect than names like Dwayne Haskins, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeded to name just a few. He was a 2025 Manning Award Finalist for the nation’s top QB, and has excellent footwork and processing abilities.

He’s also a good athlete who moves well outside the pocket, but his size, limited arm strength and lack of significant playing time (15 college games) are definite concerns.

Nevertheless, there are only a small group of humans on the planet that are capable of playing the quarterback position at the NFL level. Our final NFL Mock Draft predicts he’ll be selected on Thursday, and Simpson has a good foundation of tools to work with and improve on. At least one team won’t be able to help themselves from picking in him in the First Round helping us cash our bet.

The post NFL Draft Odds – Over/Under 1.5 QBs in First Round appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We are less than 24 hours away from the NFL Draft, and the debate over who the second best skill position player is in this class is heating up. There’s no doubt that Jeremiyah Love is the most talented offensive player, but after him you can make a strong argument for either Carnell Tate of Jordyn Tyson.

From a ceiling perspective, the answer is probably Tyson but the Arizona State product has enough red flags to make you think twice. Tyson and Tate are locked in a battle to be the first wide receiver drafted on Thursday, with prediction markets expecting that honor to go to Tate.

I’m inclined to agree, so keep reading for the reasons why, plus see the First WR Drafted odds and best bets below.

First WR Drafted Odds

Prediction Markets

First WR Favorites

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Carnell Tate

65%

Jordyn Tyson

37%

Makai Lemon

5%

KC Concepcion

3%

Denzel Boston

1%

Omar Cooper Jr.

0%

Chris Brazzell II

0%

Zachariah Branch

0%

Malachi Fields

0%

Skyler Bell

0%

Predict

At the time of writing, Tate is given a 60% chance of being the first wideout selected by Kalshi, and is trading at 59 cents in that market. That’s the equivalent of -144 odds in traditional sports betting terms, with Tyson being traded at 42 cents (+138). For what it’s worth, Tate’s draft position over/under in the NFL Draft odds is one spot lower than Tyson’s (7.5 vs 8.5), but the ladder has shorter odds to be a top-five pick (+275 vs +500).

First WR Drafted Best Bets

• Carnell Tate (59¢ at Kalshi)

What’s telling about Tyson boasting shorter top-five odds is that teams view his ceiling as significantly higher than Tate’s. One team in particular, the Giants, are reportedly enamoured with the Arizona State wideout, and just happen to own two top-10 selections on Thursday, including pick #5.

While that 5th overall does seem a bit high to draft a player with Tyson’s injury concerns, it should be noted that this year’s Draft is wide open and no one outside of Fernando Mendoza in our final NFL mock draft is a lock to be a franchise player. New York was one of two teams to send their GM to Tyson’s pro day, and have also brought him into their own building for a visit.

Tyson is the bigger player, who is currently being comped to Justin Jefferson. He is a smooth, long route runner, with great body control and that breaks a ton of tackles. Tyson accounted for 46.7% of his Arizona State’s receiving yards last season, and 65% of their receiving TD. His targets per route run were in the 97th percentile, even though he played the final two games at far less than 100% health.

But here’s the problem. Tyson has injury and durability issues, and is viewed as a very risky pick. If he hadn’t suffered any injuries in college he’d easily be drafted ahead of Tate, but it’s hard to overlook a torn ACL, PCL and LCL in one knee, a broken collarbone and a lingering hamstring strain that caused him to miss the combine. There will always be teams that elect to draft for ceiling over floor, but it’s simply too risky a proposition this high in the Draft.

Which brings us to Tate. The Ohio State wideout is a polished route runner, who can win at all three levels and isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty in the run game. He doesn’t have the same type of freaky traits as Tyson, but he’s got 4.4 speed and hands that remind you of super glue. If the ball comes anywhere close to them, you can bet it’s sticking to him.

Tate also comes from a more pro style offense, and is the latest in a long line of great Buckeyes receivers. His former teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba just helped the Seahawks triumph in the Super Bowl odds, while he’d be a nice fit at pick #7 to the wide receiver needy Commanders, to pair with former Ohio State great Terry McLauin.

Tyson will no doubt be a sexier pick in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, and the team that drafts him will receive more publicity, but Tate is a sure thing, and not someone you pass on in favor of a serious injury risk.

The post First WR Drafted Odds & Best Bets – Who’s Favored: Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The NFL Draft is finally upon us, and the Las Vegas Raiders are on the clock Thursday evening. The NFL draft odds clearly have them taking quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall, but what will happen after that is totally up in the air with plenty of possibilities.

SBD’s final NFL mock draft has been tabulated using only betting odds, and the second choice is Edge Arvell Reese, followed by Edge David Bailey to Arizona. With so many question marks later down the board, there could be fireworks Thursday, and for Friday’s second and third rounds, followed by rounds 4-7 on Saturday.

A team’s fortunes can dramatically change following a phenomenal draft, allowing them to exceed their NFL win totals. Below is the over/under position of 20 prospects, and their corresponding odds. I’ll make my favorite bets for where I think two key players will go and get some value on potentially winning wagers.

2026 NFL Draft Over/Under Position Picks

Probably the most intriguing name among this list of incoming rookies is running back Jeremiyah Love, whose O/U number is set at 5.5. He’s the favorite on prediction market Kalshi to head to the Tennessee Titans at fourth overall.

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However, another player with the same O/U 5.5 is linebacker Sonny Styles, who I feel will be the selection for Tennessee. He’d be the perfect piece for new Head Coach Robert Saleh’s defense and a NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds contender.

NFL Draft Prospect Over/Under Picks and Predictions

• Carnell Tate Under 7.5 Pick (-105 on DraftKings)
• Ty Simpson Under 24.5 Pick (+195 on DraftKings)

For my first selection, I’m going with a wide receiver that could change a team’s fortunes and get them in the Super Bowl odds conversation – wide receiver Carnell Tate. He’s currently O/U 7.5 picks, and I’m grabbing him under that mark because his talent is too electric to pass up (Tate is the WR favored to be drafted first).

He’s got a big frame (6′ 3″) and would be a great downfield target. Perhaps the Browns could call his name, considering he’s a local hero from the Ohio State Buckeyes. He’d join a growing list of elite OSU wideouts that have thrived in the NFL (JSN, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson etc).

If Cleveland decides to pass, then Washington at #7 makes a ton of sense. They didn’t add significant pieces to the offense so far, and Terry McLaurin (also a Buckeye alum) badly needs a threat alongside him to give defenses fits.

Another interesting name to consider is QB Ty Simpson, who was at Alabama and has a 24.5 line attached to his name. Depending on what organization selects him, he definitely could be in the running for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. He put up 28 passing touchdowns against just five INT’s last year for the Crimson Tide.

Mock drafts vary on where he’ll land, but the prime candidates have to be the Jets and Cardinals. It’d be stunning if he were picked by those two squads with the second or third selections, but I’m eyeing the Jets at #16 (their second first round pick) or an Arizona deal to get back into Round 1, so I’m picking the under.

The post Over/Under NFL Draft Position Picks & Best Bets for 2026 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

FanDuel Sportsbook has released a massive OROY board with nearly 100 players priced, and the biggest takeaway might be who’s not on top. Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner and consensus No. 1 pick, opens at +320. He’s not the favorite.

That spot belongs to Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at +280. It’s a big departure from what we’ve been seeing on prediction markets, and there’s a clear reason why FanDuel flipped the order.

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of April 22. Nearly 100 players are priced on the full board. Grab the FanDuel promo code before placing any NFL futures bets.

Love at +280 implies about a 26% chance to win the award, while Mendoza at +320 sits around 24%. After those two, there’s a sizable gap before Carnell Tate (+750) and Jordyn Tyson (+850) round out the top four.

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Why Mendoza Isn’t the OROY Favorite

Two words: Kirk Cousins. The Raiders signed the 14-year veteran to a $20 million guaranteed deal back on April 2, and he’s expected to be the bridge starter while Mendoza learns the system. You can’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year holding a clipboard.

Head coach Klint Kubiak reportedly wants to bring Mendoza along slowly. Kubiak and Cousins have history together from Minnesota, when Kubiak was the Vikings’ offensive coordinator. The plan in Las Vegas is development first, not a Week 1 starting job.

That doesn’t mean Mendoza won’t eventually take over. If Cousins struggles early, we could see the Heisman winner under center by midseason. But FanDuel is pricing in the uncertainty, and that’s why a guy who was trading at nearly -200 on prediction markets now opens as the second choice on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board.

Why Love Opens as the Favorite

Love’s case is the exact opposite. If Tennessee takes him at No. 4 like the market expects, he’s walking into a situation built for immediate, heavy usage. The Titans finished 30th in rushing yards per game in 2025, and they already have Cam Ward entering year two at quarterback.

Love rushed for 18 touchdowns and led all draft prospects with 726 breakaway rushing yards at Notre Dame, per Pro Football Focus. He also caught 27 passes, which makes him a true three-down back from day one. There’s no veteran ahead of him and no timeshare to worry about.

The market is pricing in a simple equation. A projected Day 1 starter with elite usage beats a rookie quarterback who might spend several weeks on the bench. RBs rarely win OROY, but Love’s projected volume is hard to ignore at +280.

OROY Prediction Market Odds

The Kalshi prediction market tells a similar story. Mendoza is currently trading at 48 cents (down 7 points), while Love sits at 42 cents and is trending up. The gap between them has been shrinking for weeks.

Prediction Markets

Top 10 Favorites

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Kalshi

Fernando Mendoza

48%

Jeremiyah Love

42%

Jadarian Price

30%

Makai Lemon

29%

Ty Simpson

0%

Garrett Nussmeier

0%

Drew Allar

0%

Carson Beck

0%

Jonah Coleman

0%

Mike Washington Jr

0%

Predict

OROY Value Bet: Carnell Tate

• Carnell Tate (+750 at FanDuel)

If you’re looking for the best value on the board, it’s Tate at +750. He’s the top receiver in this draft class with a 77.3% catch rate and a 90.3 PFF grade last season at Ohio State. Every major mock has him going inside the top 10, with the Saints at No. 8 as the most common landing spot.

New Orleans would pair Tate with Chris Olave and make him a primary target for Tyler Shough in year two. That’s the kind of high-volume role that produces NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, and the history backs it up.

Last 5 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners

McMillan won it last year at +1300 as a wide receiver, and Garrett Wilson took it in 2022 at +2000. Tate’s price could move fast after Thursday night depending on where he lands. If New Orleans grabs him at 8 like expected, +750 won’t stick around for long.

The post Opening NFL OROY Odds: Mendoza Not the Favorite Ahead of 2026 Draft appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The Tennessee Titans own the fourth overall draft pick in Thursday’s NFL draft, where they desperately need to nail the selection following four years of futility. The NFL draft odds clearly have the Las Vegas Raiders taking quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall, but what will happen after that, specifically with the Titans?

SBD’s final NFL mock draft has Tennessee picking a running back, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love, fourth overall. He’s also the heavy favorite to land with the Titans at prediction market sites like Kalshi.

The graph below shows the current odds on who Tennessee will pick Thursday, and this article will delve deeply into what might happen on draft night along with my best bet.

Tennessee Titans 2026 First Draft Pick Odds

Prediction Markets

NFL Draft #4 Odds

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Jeremiyah Love

51%

Sonny Styles

18%

David Bailey

16%

Arvell Reese

12%

Carnell Tate

6%

Francis Mauigoa

4%

Caleb Downs

4%

Rueben Bain Jr.

2%

Mansoor Delane

2%

Keldric Faulk

2%

Predict

Odds in table from Kalshi at 8:33 pm ET, April 21st.

As noted earlier, running back Jeremiyah Love is the top choice at Kalshi to land with the Titans at 51%. The last time Tennessee took a running back in the first round came way back in 2008, when speedy Chris Johnson was nabbed.

The next most likely pick in the eyes of the prediction markets is linebacker Sonny Styles (18%), followed by Edge David Bailey (16%). Rounding out the top-five is another LB (Arvell Reese 12%), and wide receiver Carnell Tate (6%), which would really help last year’s #1 overall draft pick and QB Cam Ward.

Of note, Robert Saleh was named head coach in the offseason, and he has a defensive background. However, the Titans have sided with an offensive player selection as their first choice in four straight drafts, and a whopping 14 of 18.

Why Titans Would Select Jeremiyah Love First Overall

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and running back Jeremiyah Love has been getting considerable buzz in being linked to the Titans for a while now. Tennessee badly needs the presence of a running game to take more off the plate of sophomore QB Cam Ward, plus activate a strong play action game. Last year, the squad ranked third last in total rushing yards per game (93.5) ahead of only Las Vegas and Arizona.

After years of ignoring running backs or assuming teams could pick ones late in the draft and plug and play them, the NFL seems to be shifting back to taking ball carriers early. Four straight years (2019-22) no back was taken higher than 24th, but in 2023 Bijan Robinson went 8th to Atlanta and Jahmyr Gibbs 12th to Detroit. Following no RB’s taken on the first day in 2024, Las Vegas took Ashton Jeanty at #6 in 2025.

If they do take Love, which Arizona potentially could steal from them with the pick before Tennessee, he’ll certainly be among the top favorites in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. It’d greatly improve the Titans chances to blow over their listed number in NFL win totals, which currently sits at 6.5.

Tennessee Titans NFL Draft Best Bet

Head Coach Robert Saleh has to be champing at the bit to get his hands on one of the defensive studs in the draft, given that he’s a defensive guru. Taking RB Love out of the equation, the next three likely picks are all on defense with Styles, Bailey and Reese garnering the attention.

I’d be honing in on what Titans ESPN beat reporter Turron Davenport is predicting, which is that Tennessee looks to upgrade the D, after they surrendered 28.1 PPG a year ago, fifth worst in the league. Middle linebacker is a premium position in Saleh’s defense, and that would be Ohio State’s Sonny Styles. He’s drawing comparison’s to a former pupil Saleh had as defensive coordinator in San Francisco, and that’s Fred Warner.

I’m seeing Styles’ number rise as I type out this article, and he’d be a strong candidate to claim victory in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds. While Tennessee seems super far off in the Super Bowl odds at +15000 (sixth worst), the league moves quickly, and fortunes can change rapidly with a strong draft class.

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The post Who Will Titans Draft at Fourth Overall? Latest #4 Pick Odds & Best Bet appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.